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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
post.htmpolitical
initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
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High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
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Hosting
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Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart, & some Computer terminal
company and cable modem or broadband connection ) mean for the future of
global society ? What is the image they pursue ? http://www.wiredbrain.com/image.htm
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video
conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to
advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.
What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays,
or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content"
is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
In 1947 it was the transistor. Today it is photonics. Called the second
silicon revolution, optical fiber systems are in an explosive state of
development, reminiscent of the earlier days of the electronics industry.
Over the past two decades, since fiber-optic communications first began
to appear, the carrying capacity of fiber has increased at a faster rate
than Moore's law. Now the wavelength-division multiplexing revolution has
accelerated that capacity even more, while introducing the flexibility
of wavelength-based routing. Forged from an interdisciplinary mix of semiconductor
diode lasers, micromachine technology and fundamental advances in optical
glass technology, terahertz networking has arrived well ahead of schedule.
It's a major revolution riding on a broad-based industry serving the
fundamental human need to communicate.
"A length of fiber long enough to circle the globe three times is produced
every day, and if you extrapolate current trends to 2010, every one of
the 6 billion people on earth will have a bandwidth capability equivalent
to high-definition television," said Alistair Glass, director of photonics
research and development at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories. Arriving
at Bell Labs in 1967, Glass' career spans the development and implementation
of fiber-optic communications systems.
Major breakthrough
"When I arrived, the major breakthrough was the first continuously operating
laser, and it didn't run for very long-only a few minutes," Glass recalled.
"This was the time of the early hero experiments and the demands kept
increasing and increasing on these devices.
There was always that pressure,
but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
HP is investing $2 million in New Media Venture Partners (NMVP) and
will provide up to $15 million in debt financing to help the company fund
and incubate e-commerce start-ups. In return, subsidiaries of NMVP will
use HP products and services.
If I were a high technology company - in information systems, computers,
communications or any part of the 25 % of the economy - and almost all
the growth sector - now including networks - broadcasting - publishing
- entertainment - music - video - electronics - service - I would have
a venture capital connection so I could send people out and find out what
is going on.
The battle for the airwaves is not just about broadband but
the content - software and services. If you put a few hundred thousand
in interesting technologies you gain access to information.
There is almost
a certainty that something will come from left field and change all the
rules again.
Cable is too slow and greedy.
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic.
Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term
survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible -
such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology
- but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible.
.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
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Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
A traditional book has covers, a table of
contents, chapters so is linear and fixed in time and space. An electric
book has search engines
use
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not fixed in time or space.
Searchfor
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Work
in progress -
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Make PORTALS
your home page and use "wiredbrain" password "synergy" for set-up start
pages.
MSN
now does the best search
Use the Codes to Wiredbrain
Social
ergonomics
The
Money
Machine
Current posts
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
post.htmpolitical
initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies
& technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart, & some Computer terminal
company and cable modem or broadband connection ) mean for the future of
global society ? What is the image they pursue ? http://www.wiredbrain.com/image.htm
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video
conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to
advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.
What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays,
or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content"
is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
In 1947 it was the transistor. Today it is photonics. Called the second
silicon revolution, optical fiber systems are in an explosive state of
development, reminiscent of the earlier days of the electronics industry.
Over the past two decades, since fiber-optic communications first began
to appear, the carrying capacity of fiber has increased at a faster rate
than Moore's law. Now the wavelength-division multiplexing revolution has
accelerated that capacity even more, while introducing the flexibility
of wavelength-based routing. Forged from an interdisciplinary mix of semiconductor
diode lasers, micromachine technology and fundamental advances in optical
glass technology, terahertz networking has arrived well ahead of schedule.
It's a major revolution riding on a broad-based industry serving the
fundamental human need to communicate.
"A length of fiber long enough to circle the globe three times is produced
every day, and if you extrapolate current trends to 2010, every one of
the 6 billion people on earth will have a bandwidth capability equivalent
to high-definition television," said Alistair Glass, director of photonics
research and development at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories. Arriving
at Bell Labs in 1967, Glass' career spans the development and implementation
of fiber-optic communications systems.
Major breakthrough
"When I arrived, the major breakthrough was the first continuously operating
laser, and it didn't run for very long-only a few minutes," Glass recalled.
"This was the time of the early hero experiments and the demands kept
increasing and increasing on these devices.
There was always that pressure,
but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
HP is investing $2 million in New Media Venture Partners (NMVP) and
will provide up to $15 million in debt financing to help the company fund
and incubate e-commerce start-ups. In return, subsidiaries of NMVP will
use HP products and services.
If I were a high technology company - in information systems, computers,
communications or any part of the 25 % of the economy - and almost all
the growth sector - now including networks - broadcasting - publishing
- entertainment - music - video - electronics - service - I would have
a venture capital connection so I could send people out and find out what
is going on.
The battle for the airwaves is not just about broadband but
the content - software and services. If you put a few hundred thousand
in interesting technologies you gain access to information.
There is almost
a certainty that something will come from left field and change all the
rules again.
Cable is too slow and greedy.
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic.
Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term
survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible -
such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology
- but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible.
.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
post.htmpolitical
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social political issues.htm
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A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart, & some Computer terminal
company and cable modem or broadband connection ) mean for the future of
global society ? What is the image they pursue ? http://www.wiredbrain.com/image.htm
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video
conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to
advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.
What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays,
or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content"
is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
In 1947 it was the transistor. Today it is photonics. Called the second
silicon revolution, optical fiber systems are in an explosive state of
development, reminiscent of the earlier days of the electronics industry.
Over the past two decades, since fiber-optic communications first began
to appear, the carrying capacity of fiber has increased at a faster rate
than Moore's law. Now the wavelength-division multiplexing revolution has
accelerated that capacity even more, while introducing the flexibility
of wavelength-based routing. Forged from an interdisciplinary mix of semiconductor
diode lasers, micromachine technology and fundamental advances in optical
glass technology, terahertz networking has arrived well ahead of schedule.
It's a major revolution riding on a broad-based industry serving the
fundamental human need to communicate.
"A length of fiber long enough to circle the globe three times is produced
every day, and if you extrapolate current trends to 2010, every one of
the 6 billion people on earth will have a bandwidth capability equivalent
to high-definition television," said Alistair Glass, director of photonics
research and development at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories. Arriving
at Bell Labs in 1967, Glass' career spans the development and implementation
of fiber-optic communications systems.
Major breakthrough
"When I arrived, the major breakthrough was the first continuously operating
laser, and it didn't run for very long-only a few minutes," Glass recalled.
"This was the time of the early hero experiments and the demands kept
increasing and increasing on these devices.
There was always that pressure,
but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
HP is investing $2 million in New Media Venture Partners (NMVP) and
will provide up to $15 million in debt financing to help the company fund
and incubate e-commerce start-ups. In return, subsidiaries of NMVP will
use HP products and services.
If I were a high technology company - in information systems, computers,
communications or any part of the 25 % of the economy - and almost all
the growth sector - now including networks - broadcasting - publishing
- entertainment - music - video - electronics - service - I would have
a venture capital connection so I could send people out and find out what
is going on.
The battle for the airwaves is not just about broadband but
the content - software and services. If you put a few hundred thousand
in interesting technologies you gain access to information.
There is almost
a certainty that something will come from left field and change all the
rules again.
Cable is too slow and greedy.
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic.
Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term
survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible -
such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology
- but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible.
.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
post.htmpolitical
initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies
& technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart, & some Computer terminal
company and cable modem or broadband connection ) mean for the future of
global society ? What is the image they pursue ? http://www.wiredbrain.com/image.htm
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video
conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to
advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.
What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays,
or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content"
is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
In 1947 it was the transistor. Today it is photonics. Called the second
silicon revolution, optical fiber systems are in an explosive state of
development, reminiscent of the earlier days of the electronics industry.
Over the past two decades, since fiber-optic communications first began
to appear, the carrying capacity of fiber has increased at a faster rate
than Moore's law. Now the wavelength-division multiplexing revolution has
accelerated that capacity even more, while introducing the flexibility
of wavelength-based routing. Forged from an interdisciplinary mix of semiconductor
diode lasers, micromachine technology and fundamental advances in optical
glass technology, terahertz networking has arrived well ahead of schedule.
It's a major revolution riding on a broad-based industry serving the
fundamental human need to communicate.
"A length of fiber long enough to circle the globe three times is produced
every day, and if you extrapolate current trends to 2010, every one of
the 6 billion people on earth will have a bandwidth capability equivalent
to high-definition television," said Alistair Glass, director of photonics
research and development at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories. Arriving
at Bell Labs in 1967, Glass' career spans the development and implementation
of fiber-optic communications systems.
Major breakthrough
"When I arrived, the major breakthrough was the first continuously operating
laser, and it didn't run for very long-only a few minutes," Glass recalled.
"This was the time of the early hero experiments and the demands kept
increasing and increasing on these devices.
There was always that pressure,
but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
HP is investing $2 million in New Media Venture Partners (NMVP) and
will provide up to $15 million in debt financing to help the company fund
and incubate e-commerce start-ups. In return, subsidiaries of NMVP will
use HP products and services.
If I were a high technology company - in information systems, computers,
communications or any part of the 25 % of the economy - and almost all
the growth sector - now including networks - broadcasting - publishing
- entertainment - music - video - electronics - service - I would have
a venture capital connection so I could send people out and find out what
is going on.
The battle for the airwaves is not just about broadband but
the content - software and services. If you put a few hundred thousand
in interesting technologies you gain access to information.
There is almost
a certainty that something will come from left field and change all the
rules again.
Cable is too slow and greedy.
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic.
Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term
survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible -
such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology
- but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible.
.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
post.htmpolitical
initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
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educational reform
communications technology
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& technologies
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Disintermediation
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Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart, & some Computer terminal
company and cable modem or broadband connection ) mean for the future of
global society ? What is the image they pursue ? http://www.wiredbrain.com/image.htm
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video
conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to
advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.
What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays,
or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content"
is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
In 1947 it was the transistor. Today it is photonics. Called the second
silicon revolution, optical fiber systems are in an explosive state of
development, reminiscent of the earlier days of the electronics industry.
Over the past two decades, since fiber-optic communications first began
to appear, the carrying capacity of fiber has increased at a faster rate
than Moore's law. Now the wavelength-division multiplexing revolution has
accelerated that capacity even more, while introducing the flexibility
of wavelength-based routing. Forged from an interdisciplinary mix of semiconductor
diode lasers, micromachine technology and fundamental advances in optical
glass technology, terahertz networking has arrived well ahead of schedule.
It's a major revolution riding on a broad-based industry serving the
fundamental human need to communicate.
"A length of fiber long enough to circle the globe three times is produced
every day, and if you extrapolate current trends to 2010, every one of
the 6 billion people on earth will have a bandwidth capability equivalent
to high-definition television," said Alistair Glass, director of photonics
research and development at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories. Arriving
at Bell Labs in 1967, Glass' career spans the development and implementation
of fiber-optic communications systems.
Major breakthrough
"When I arrived, the major breakthrough was the first continuously operating
laser, and it didn't run for very long-only a few minutes," Glass recalled.
"This was the time of the early hero experiments and the demands kept
increasing and increasing on these devices.
There was always that pressure,
but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
HP is investing $2 million in New Media Venture Partners (NMVP) and
will provide up to $15 million in debt financing to help the company fund
and incubate e-commerce start-ups. In return, subsidiaries of NMVP will
use HP products and services.
If I were a high technology company - in information systems, computers,
communications or any part of the 25 % of the economy - and almost all
the growth sector - now including networks - broadcasting - publishing
- entertainment - music - video - electronics - service - I would have
a venture capital connection so I could send people out and find out what
is going on.
The battle for the airwaves is not just about broadband but
the content - software and services. If you put a few hundred thousand
in interesting technologies you gain access to information.
There is almost
a certainty that something will come from left field and change all the
rules again.
Cable is too slow and greedy.
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic.
Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term
survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible -
such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology
- but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible.
.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
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Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart, & some Computer terminal
company and cable modem or broadband connection ) mean for the future of
global society ? What is the image they pursue ? http://www.wiredbrain.com/image.htm
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video
conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to
advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.
What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays,
or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content"
is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
In 1947 it was the transistor. Today it is photonics. Called the second
silicon revolution, optical fiber systems are in an explosive state of
development, reminiscent of the earlier days of the electronics industry.
Over the past two decades, since fiber-optic communications first began
to appear, the carrying capacity of fiber has increased at a faster rate
than Moore's law. Now the wavelength-division multiplexing revolution has
accelerated that capacity even more, while introducing the flexibility
of wavelength-based routing. Forged from an interdisciplinary mix of semiconductor
diode lasers, micromachine technology and fundamental advances in optical
glass technology, terahertz networking has arrived well ahead of schedule.
It's a major revolution riding on a broad-based industry serving the
fundamental human need to communicate.
"A length of fiber long enough to circle the globe three times is produced
every day, and if you extrapolate current trends to 2010, every one of
the 6 billion people on earth will have a bandwidth capability equivalent
to high-definition television," said Alistair Glass, director of photonics
research and development at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories. Arriving
at Bell Labs in 1967, Glass' career spans the development and implementation
of fiber-optic communications systems.
Major breakthrough
"When I arrived, the major breakthrough was the first continuously operating
laser, and it didn't run for very long-only a few minutes," Glass recalled.
"This was the time of the early hero experiments and the demands kept
increasing and increasing on these devices.
There was always that pressure,
but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
HP is investing $2 million in New Media Venture Partners (NMVP) and
will provide up to $15 million in debt financing to help the company fund
and incubate e-commerce start-ups. In return, subsidiaries of NMVP will
use HP products and services.
If I were a high technology company - in information systems, computers,
communications or any part of the 25 % of the economy - and almost all
the growth sector - now including networks - broadcasting - publishing
- entertainment - music - video - electronics - service - I would have
a venture capital connection so I could send people out and find out what
is going on.
The battle for the airwaves is not just about broadband but
the content - software and services. If you put a few hundred thousand
in interesting technologies you gain access to information.
There is almost
a certainty that something will come from left field and change all the
rules again.
Cable is too slow and greedy.
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic.
Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term
survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible -
such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology
- but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible.
.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The
Money
Machine
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
post.htmpolitical
initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies
& technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart, & some Computer terminal
company and cable modem or broadband connection ) mean for the future of
global society ? What is the image they pursue ? http://www.wiredbrain.com/image.htm
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video
conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to
advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.
What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays,
or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content"
is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
post.htmpolitical
initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies
& technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart, & some Computer terminal
company and cable modem or broadband connection ) mean for the future of
global society ? What is the image they pursue ? http://www.wiredbrain.com/image.htm
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video
conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to
advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.
What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays,
or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content"
is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
post.htmpolitical
initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies
& technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
pflaump@wiredbrain.com - http://www.wiredbrain.com/
post.htmpolitical
initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies
& technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies
& technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies
& technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
The next companies
& technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet
by Soliton
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
Disintermediation
Web
Hosting
>
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
Disintermediation
Disintermediation Last updated on March 20, 1999
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video
conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to
advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.
What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays,
or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content"
is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
The job of
television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are
only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL
/ Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their
dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
Their dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of
long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and
only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers
become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections
they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone,
Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital
for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone, Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial
( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free
samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery
list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy
records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts,
use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage
and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/disintermedation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer
and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take
on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if
not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original
equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality
and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary
can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super
market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super market of the world.
Chappell Brown
Bell Labs is known for revolutions.
Over the past two decades, since fiber-optic communications first began
to appear, the carrying capacity of fiber has increased at a faster rate
than Moore's law. Now the wavelength-division multiplexing revolution has
accelerated that capacity even more, while introducing the flexibility
of wavelength-based routing. Forged from an interdisciplinary mix of semiconductor
diode lasers, micromachine technology and fundamental advances in optical
glass technology, terahertz networking has arrived well ahead of schedule.
It's a major revolution riding on a broad-based industry serving the
fundamental human need to communicate.
"A length of fiber long enough to circle the globe three times is produced
every day, and if you extrapolate current trends to 2010, every one of
the 6 billion people on earth will have a bandwidth capability equivalent
to high-definition television," said Alistair Glass, director of photonics
research and development at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories. Arriving
at Bell Labs in 1967, Glass' career spans the development and implementation
of fiber-optic communications systems.
Major breakthrough
"When I arrived, the major breakthrough was the first continuously operating
laser, and it didn't run for very long-only a few minutes," Glass recalled.
"This was the time of the early hero experiments and the demands kept
increasing and increasing on these devices.
There was always that pressure,
but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
HP is investing $2 million in New Media Venture Partners (NMVP) and
will provide up to $15 million in debt financing to help the company fund
and incubate e-commerce start-ups. In return, subsidiaries of NMVP will
use HP products and services.
If I were a high technology company - in information systems, computers,
communications or any part of the 25 % of the economy - and almost all
the growth sector - now including networks - broadcasting - publishing
- entertainment - music - video - electronics - service - I would have
a venture capital connection so I could send people out and find out what
is going on.
The battle for the airwaves is not just about broadband but
the content - software and services. If you put a few hundred thousand
in interesting technologies you gain access to information.
There is almost
a certainty that something will come from left field and change all the
rules again.
Cable is too slow and greedy.
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic.
Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term
survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible -
such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology
- but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible.
.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
"A length of fiber long enough to circle the globe three times is produced
every day, and if you extrapolate current trends to 2010, every one of
the 6 billion people on earth will have a bandwidth capability equivalent
to high-definition television," said Alistair Glass, director of photonics
research and development at Lucent Technologies Bell Laboratories. Arriving
at Bell Labs in 1967, Glass' career spans the development and implementation
of fiber-optic communications systems.
Major breakthrough
"When I arrived, the major breakthrough was the first continuously operating
laser, and it didn't run for very long-only a few minutes," Glass recalled.
"This was the time of the early hero experiments and the demands kept
increasing and increasing on these devices.
There was always that pressure,
but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
HP is investing $2 million in New Media Venture Partners (NMVP) and
will provide up to $15 million in debt financing to help the company fund
and incubate e-commerce start-ups. In return, subsidiaries of NMVP will
use HP products and services.
If I were a high technology company - in information systems, computers,
communications or any part of the 25 % of the economy - and almost all
the growth sector - now including networks - broadcasting - publishing
- entertainment - music - video - electronics - service - I would have
a venture capital connection so I could send people out and find out what
is going on.
The battle for the airwaves is not just about broadband but
the content - software and services. If you put a few hundred thousand
in interesting technologies you gain access to information.
There is almost
a certainty that something will come from left field and change all the
rules again.
Cable is too slow and greedy.
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic.
Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term
survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible -
such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology
- but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible.
.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
"When I arrived, the major breakthrough was the first continuously operating
laser, and it didn't run for very long-only a few minutes," Glass recalled.
"This was the time of the early hero experiments and the demands kept
increasing and increasing on these devices.
There was always that pressure,
but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
There was always that pressure, but the interest in the marketplace represented a dramatic change."
There was always a strong demand to increase the performance of any
device.
At first the research arm of AT&T, Bell Labs enjoyed a special status
after its founding in the 1920s. Because of the monopoly granted AT&T
by the government, in the interests of standardizing the telephone system,
the lab could both be part of a commercial operation and play the open
role of a national laboratory.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
"At that time, there was not much connectivity with business- it was
very much intellectually driven. We wanted to be leaders in all the fields
relevant to communications," Glass said. But in the early 1980s two developments
dramatically accelerated photonics research: commercial long-haul fiber-optic
systems began to be installed commercially, and AT&T's monopoly was
dissolved by the government, with parts of Bell Labs spun off into other
companies as part of a complex divestiture of the telecommunications giant.
"We were suddenly handed the mandate to develop commercial products out
of our research efforts," he said.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems.
Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated
optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed.
"Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics
has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
The lab responded with a broad attack on optical communications systems. Innovations in the basic fiber, laser diodes to power them, and integrated optoelectronic components to interface with electronic data systems followed. "Since then, particularly with the founding of Lucent Technologies, optics has been accelerating at an incredible rate," Glass said.
For transporting data over long distances, fiber systems proved to be
irresistible. Large bundles of copper wire could be replaced by slender
silicon fibers in a process of "demassification" usually associated with
the electronics industry. While the debate continues over whether optical
interconnect is a viable alternative to electrical wiring inside of computers,
the issue has been definitively resolved for long-distance communications.
But optical interconnect inside the box may eventually succumb to a long-term
trend. Recent developments in metropolitan-area networks suggest that fiber
optics is riding a scaling law similar to the shrinking VLSI circuit, and
the scaling rate appears to be steeper.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with
a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred
in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece
of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics
labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing
(DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp
up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from
eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products
use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
The rapid deployment of fiber optics received an even bigger jolt with a repeat of the '80s scenario in the 1990s. Bell Labs was again transferred in 1996 to another entity-Lucent Technologies-and made the centerpiece of a startup with considerable economic resources. Also brewing in photonics labs was a revolutionary technology called dense wavelength-division multiplexing (DWDM), which has allowed the carrying capacity of optical fiber to ramp up at an astonishing rate. "In the mid-90s it became a fever. We went from eight to 16 to 32 wavelengths on a single fiber and our latest products use 400. Now we have just demonstrated 1,000 wavelengths," Glass noted.
DWDM uses individual segments of the optical spectrum to multiplex signals
on a fiber.
The idea is recent, considered at first to be a laboratory
curiosity since practical systems were already multiplexing channels with
a time-division technique. Such synchronous optical networks (Sonet) had
been able to extend the capacity of optical fiber and were a welcome development.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more
potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission
system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That
represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass
said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
The wavelength-division multiplexing route has turned out to have far more potential: Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated a DWDM transmission system capable of sending a terabit of data per second down a fiber. "That represents the entire world's Internet on a single glass fiber," Glass said.
The DWDM revolution has been extremely swift. When Lucent Technologies
was established, DWDM was still at the laboratory demonstration stage.
While the idea is simple, turning it into practical optical communications
systems required a multifaceted development. Multiple-wavelength laser-diode
systems and new types of fiber able to carry the multiple wavelength signals
without crosstalk had to be developed. And some means of collectively amplifying
multiwavelength signals had to be invented. While those problems were effectively
solved in a short time, it wasn't easy. Indeed, one outstanding problem
has never been solved: how to regenerate multiple wavelength signals.
Large areas
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful
are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
One consequence of that missing solution is the fact that DWDM can only
be implemented on campus-wide or metropolitan areas. By doping fiber with
the rare-earth element erbium, it is possible to build a simple light amplifier
that is essentially a laser. When a multiple wavelength signal is passed
through an erbium fiber loop and optically pumped, it emerges unchanged
except that it is at a higher energy level. One nice aspect of this operation
is that the actual content of the wavelength channels is irrelevant to
the amplification process. Unfortunately, to recondition optical signals,
it becomes necessary to decode their content and relaunch them. Thus signal
regeneration, which is essential in long-haul networks, is still unavailable
to DWDM.
Balancing this deficiency in very long transmissions is a new wave of
all-optical switching elements that are able to add or remove a wavelength
channel from a fiber.
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching
function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area
networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
These add-drop multiplexers offer a high-speed switching function that could not be duplicated with electronics, and have made metropolitan-area networks into a unique flexible, high-throughput communications medium.
This essentially new form of photonics technology is spawning an industry
in optical switching components. "Now people can invent a novel device
that relates to communications and it will find its way into products extremely
rapidly-less than a year," said Glass. "We are now in a situation of 'invent
on demand' where as soon as a problem is perceived, someone immediately
comes up with a solution."
This explosive growth poses a formidable challenge to electronics technology.
"If you compare the speed of silicon chips versus the capacity of optical
fiber communications, fiber optics is going significantly faster than electronics,
and where the fiber ends-that becomes a significant bottleneck." Glass
is convinced that fiber to the home office and then fiber to the home are
just around the corner. "We have a demonstration project going with Bell
South where we have wired up a suburban neighborhood with little fiber-optic
network units on the side of each house," he said.
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
Dealing with the high volumes of data that are coming off optical fibers
will present a big challenge to electronics. Fortunately, wavelength-division
multiplexing eases that task since each wavelength can be processed simultaneously
by different circuits. Ultimately, electronics and optics technologies
offer complementary abilities: "Optics is ideal for transporting data from
point A to point B, but it is weak in the area of logic and switching,"
Glass pointed out. "That is where we will need electronics."
Copyright c 2000 CMP Media Inc. By Chappell Brown
The world economic summit is less interesting because the big and powerful are less interesting.
The rate of technological has multiplied on itself because computers
can work faster and communications are better therefore computers and communications
becomes faster and faster. My guess is that optic fiber to the door will
make on-air or cable broadcasting uneconomic - video on demand will replace
it - the program producers will distribute directly to the consumer - like
in MP3 - the video store goes on line -
The move producer - such as Blair
Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever -
so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales
-
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
The move producer - such as Blair Witch could be sold directly - same with any show or news or whatever - so there goes networks - maybe even magazine writers with direct sales -
Wireless systems can get up to 400 kps to a million somehow - http://www.wiredbrain.com/symbian.htm
for a lot of applications that is fine - and OS chip technology will make
greater use of less and less with less energy and heat - more light and
lighter -
code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.
The battle for the airwaves is not just about broadband but
the content - software and services. If you put a few hundred thousand
in interesting technologies you gain access to information.
There is almost
a certainty that something will come from left field and change all the
rules again.
Cable is too slow and greedy.
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic.
Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term
survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible -
such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology
- but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible.
.
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The telephone companies too slow and bureaucratic. Both have shown a preference for short term gains rather than long term survival. Microsoft is showing the same brain arthritis - inflexible - such as IBM was - GM and other big and rich - missed every important technology - but could buy it after it had been proven. That may or may not be possible. .
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for
Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in
Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157
million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared
with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The most common wireless transmission standard, GSM, which stands for Global Systems for Mobile communications, is particularly prevalent in Europe and Asia. According to market research firm Dataquest, nearly 157 million GSM-based mobile phones will be shipped worldwide this year, compared with shipments of about 43 million CDMA cell phones.
But many industry observers say CDMA, strongest in North America, is
more efficient and can handle Internet-based transmissions better.
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key
is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the
standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
[2]
And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and
all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains,
and have not love, I am nothing.
[3]
And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing.
[4]
Love suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself,
is not puffed up,
[5]
Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked,
thinketh no evil;
[6]
Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
[7]
Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all
things.
[8]
Love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether
there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall
vanish away.
[9]
For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
[10]
But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall
be done away.
[11]
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought
as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
[12]
For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know
in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
[13]
And now abideth faith, hope, love, these three; but the greatest of these
is love.
1Cor.8
[1]
Now as touching things offered unto idols, we know that we all have knowledge.
Knowledge puffeth up, but love edifieth.
[2]
And if any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as
he ought to know.
[3]
But if any man love God, the same is known of him.
1Cor.10
[1]
Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye should be ignorant, how that all
our fathers were under the cloud, and all passed through the sea;
[2]
And were all baptized unto Moses in the cloud and in the sea;
[3]
And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
[4]
And did all drink the same spiritual drink: for they drank of that spiritual
Rock that followed them: and that
Rock
was Christ.
(12)
[4] Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.
[5]
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.
[6]
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh
all in all.
[7]
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.
[8]
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word
of knowledge by the same Spirit;
[9]
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by
the same Spirit;
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
There is also time division and dense systems - I do believe the key is China - the PLA and post telegraph - along with the EU will set the standards.
--
Global Markets;
Market !
Finance
Physics:
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
We
tend to get experience, feeling, passions confused with ideas, theories,
thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a psychological practice that works
to make the separation clear by the direct experience of feeling. To understand
the difference is very useful in getting control of choices in life, government,
education, health and science.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Global Markets;
Market !
In
the current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and
Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.)
Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar
securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market
"correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the
next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of
the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The
theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections
between utility network computers.
Like
the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
Key
word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.com/information.htm
Religion
and theology
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Reminds
me of the republican "Christian cops" debate.
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love,
I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
Religion
is one area of human experience, theology is another, Politics is one part
of our lives, Ideology another, we tend to get them confused. Religion
is an experience, theology is an idea; politics is about power, Ideology
about beliefs.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics
is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Thoughts
are about power. We use our minds to get ahead, influence others, get a
sense or feeling of control. But without passion, desire, feeling there
is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure passion is wayward or
dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with reason. Thus
an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology
is about power in the church as an institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by
social control of feelings and people and institutions.
Ideology
is about control of social power by law and police and military force.
The God police of the Christian activists would control the bedrooms and
doctors offices,
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion
is an experience of the holy ghost. You can have religious experience.
You can know when someone is genuinely spiritual or just using God talk
to get ahead or change the power balance. Commercial are expert in connecting
feeling to product in order to create actions - sell the product. Commercial
give the illusion of ideas but are pure feeling. Politics often does the
same - the illusion of policy designed to connect feeling - positive and
negative to people and parties in order to sell the product which is power,
control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
The green Cops of the Mullahs, Neighbor watch committees
of China,
The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
OUT
of the box -
In
order for people, institutions, and societies to advance to the next level
- ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white, green, black and gold ) the difference
between passion or feeling ( the colors are different levels of spiritual
awareness ) and ideas that gain power, control, progress and win - they
must directly experience the difference - since otherwise it’s an ideas
about feeling not feeling, or an idea about religion not spiritual, or
an idea about love not love, or an idea about health not health, or an
idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more perfect union.
People
and communities can’t work hard and progress to a place they don’t understand
and have never experienced.
They never have been on the mountain top and
don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you never experience a great
school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a great company if
there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great society without
the image, the vision of greatness.
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
The
news before it happens on money.htm -- Friday. Dec. 5th
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
12/5/97 money page
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The
History of the Future:
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
Technological waves for the next 20 years
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
Something
missing:
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most
people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a
fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a
tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge
is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly
established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW
as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little
understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
Real
Reform.com
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
An
astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever
be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background
is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no
way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways
impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves
models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly
demonstrated by politics and commercials.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social
psychological foundation. ]
The
technology itself is revolutionary.
The
global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that
it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The
leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional,
mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos -
morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because
global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive
of the existing order.
American
Association for Constitutional Reform
The
issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where I can
find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century electoral
structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the money required
to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The reform that is needed is to change the structure
of the elections - a change from independent single member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system
with clear party responsibility.
The
parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and responsibilities
OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican or Democrat
has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should be some implied
contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party at all.
The
national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The
congress has become 535 independent small business people without much
discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because the
talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The
single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark ) so there
is some connection between executive and congressional authority is one
suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate federal
elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real
Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Article
II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs to be
replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational process
of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not a scramble
of
state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court decisions along
with the changing results of infighting within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The right to control federal elections by federal law should not be in
doubt - this
does
now effect the bill of rights - but only the structure of he process of
running elections.
In
the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can be much
fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core of democracy
- they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines the
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
foundations
of freedom and representative government.
Federal
Elections in the Constitution:
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
In
order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The
certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom
of political speech, competition, and the free expression of the will of
the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate has
a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon
enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not withstanding
any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
( replaces:
Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate,
Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president )
Federal
Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
Congress
shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional
referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections, as proposals
for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws to be enacted
or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This
leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an election
on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary in the middle
of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including the nomination
process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The primaries could be done
nationally in early September with a run off in the last week of September
with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough
) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Bank
reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around
banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading
groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from
the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan
Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic
economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In
a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health
care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced.
As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead
costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How
much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces
in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the
return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
Networks
of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and
marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three
central concepts:
Punctuated
Equilibrium In Action!
Complex
system are slow when adapting to changing environments and subject to periods
of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct
connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Disintermediation
Last updated on March 20, 1999
Details
and special cases:
Disintermediation
The
future of established institution to control economic, social and political
events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national and
international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive,
non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among these issues
are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict,
population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The
demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion
of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around
the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies
and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services.
A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers
in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While
the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio
of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15
to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years
of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education
and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled
occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including
specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s.
If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement
is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as
consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or
income transfers.
There
is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired
from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with
an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can
do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and
tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A
highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid
growth.
They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they
are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is
a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What
has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading
and dying.
The new success is in the process of being born and growing
up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For
examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The
U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan
Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old
and new international combines,
the
USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The
power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the
slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English
crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new
kinds of people and systems.
The
nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent.
It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior
because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all,
only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet
Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to
get worse before they get better.
1997
-
There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market
crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and
special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998
- Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2
of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by
the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the
same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the
political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers
and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations,
banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change.
The basic facts of modern
Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given
more space to operate.
1998
second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods
from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global
bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S. political system is unable
to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world
crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness,
pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without
focus.
The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain
satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999
-
The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe,
extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into
a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and
Latin America.
The
direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns
of smaller, more temporary organizations.
The percentage of the economy
controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time
firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global
basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as
Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international
firms.
Ramblings:
The
doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large
structures.
The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape.
Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location.
Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer
with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where
theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There
is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere
of billions living reproducing pathways and elements.
The bio-sphere began
and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share
genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and
communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells
take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes.
The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
<FON
FastCounter by bCentral
The
government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There
is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently
in the labor force.
The
shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help,
the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make
a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible
is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The
skill and educational character of the labor force,
The
capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The
ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
The relative costs of work shifts to less developed,
labor rich areas.
The
long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases
in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools
are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll
taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The
current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has
growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because
of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college
than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs
to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The
larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information"
revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very
impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low
skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor
pool.
The number of connections increases exponentially
on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost everything else.
What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's history is
a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease rapidly
in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
The
Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation