Surplus Product:
The fault in free market
capitalism is the historic issue of over production. The motivation of
capitalism is to gain a higher return on investment (ROI) than the going rate
of return. A functional capital market
will increase investment in sectors that are “hot” until it is over
done. Since there is a delay between decisions and the ROI people invest today
on the expectation of returns tomorrow. Using historical data is always
misleading and can not be true a discount of current value vs. future ROI.
There will be more houses, cars, structured investment instruments, etc. than
the market can absorb as supply out run effective demand.
The modern discount system escalate the boom
and bust effects. A million dollars in mortgages is turned into certificates
that generate additional money to fund more home loans that then are used as
assets to borrow more money until one dollar becomes ten. When the million
dollars in bonds have to be repaid or lose their market value it takes ten
million dollars out of the pool so the virtuous cycle becomes a malevolence
cycle. It is similar danger as buying on
margin.
The monetary policy is to
drop interest rates to make ROI easier.
The government pump primes by borrowing money and spending it. The scale
has to be right – too little too late will not work. As in taking
antibiotics you need to get a big dose and finish the course of treatment or
the disease will return in a more virulent form. The political system has to be able to act and
decisively or it won’t work. Peter Druker’s theory was that war was
the only way democracies could dispose of the surplus property by shooting it
at foreign enemies. Workers are paid to produce the good of war but nothing
enters the civil supply chain. Democracies
have a hard time collecting taxes and run surpluses when the economy over heats
because human desires are endless and politicians get elected by buying voters
with public programs.
A real reserve fund is the
solution – save during the seven good years so you have resources in the
rainy day.
The central issue from the
17th century forward, is the shift from
the rule of established authorities by a established land owning ruling class
of king and church to a capitalist and republican form of government. The
empirical issue is the nature of mass publics. In “Reflections on the revolution in
The issue over the last few
centuries and today and in the campaign for democracy today is the problem of
the unlikely trust placed in ordinary people – are they a mass of
unconscious desires and hidden motivation aroused by the market managers,
elitists and the media or are they sovereign individuals endowed by their
creator with reason and citizen with rights.
Is it Rush or
This years selection of
President have this in the background – can people, the great unwashed,
the masses take charge of their own affairs – can there be a government
of the people, for the people and by the people or is this a fairy tale –
and grand illusion?
According to General
Semantics, cognitive sciences, it’s the frame STUPID! The frame is the network of associations that
spring from the sub-conscientious with the brand.
Obama has a brand of hope and
change – a people lost in the wilderness about to cross to the holy
land. The collection of tribes of all the people lost in the dessert
looking across to the promised land of milk and honey. The leader is a guide
and prophet, a coach getting the team into the supper bowl.
The Republican image of the
strict father offer security and freedom from reason. The people is to follow
and believe and not question authority. Ditto Heads…
Democracy in
There are some popular myths
about the nature of the American civilization.
The nation was a child of enlighten not a Christian revival. The Deists
and Freemasons who organized the “committees of public safety” and
created the propaganda that let to the “rebellion of the American
Colonies” and was all about CHANGE. The established order of CHURCH,
KING, and State was gothic v. the modern world which was rational, logical as
opposed to faith based doctrine based on tradition and authority. The idea that
people could manage their own affairs depended on people being sensible, not
driven by superstitions, and passions. The people must have a higher sense of
the common good and see beyond just personal, regional, racial, ethic, class or
religious prejudices. The “people” were property owners and
educated. The masses were not to be trusted.
Without the balance of power, public education, and a stable middle
class Imperial tyranny would be replaced by the rule of the mob.
If Mr. Edwards wants to
change “the system” he will have to convince the states to call a
constitutional convention to redesign the balance of power. The system we have has been successful
designed to prevent Democracy because popular rule would endanger civil
liberties and state sovereignty
– Democracy only requires majority rule within a parliamentary
system. The American design was to
prevent the state from doing much, for better or worse. The balance of power design was there because
the founding fathers did not trust the people or majorities that would abolish
slavery, over tax or regulate, tax trade to the disadvantage of one region or
industry or another. Our limited democracy
is another result of our original sin of slavery.
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The Stock
Market Game
States are suffering from a real "double whammy" in the current
economic slowdown, which has reduced revenues sharply (especially in the many
states that depend mainly on retail-sensitive sales tax collections), while
boosting demands on state programs aimed at helping people who are unemployed
or living in or near poverty -- particularly the Medicaid program,
the top expenditure category in nearly every state. A majority of states,
moreover, have constitutional or statutory prohibitions on deficit spending, so
shortfalls much be closed quickly. The new responsibilities states are
already beginning to face for homeland security and increased law enforcement
generally will not help the fiscal picture at all.
http://www.neweconomyindex.org/states/strategies.html
Since recessions follow booms
as winter follows summer maybe we should expect down turns and make plans. This
is called counter cycle activity - the most natural approach is to have
reserves, saving which can be called into play when needed - such as some
states, countries, firms and individual have a rainy day funds because it will
rain. Now it is harder to fix the roof when it is raining but it still needs to
be fixed.
Since states and local
government (utilities, communications and other firms) make the problem
worse by cutting back during recessions - the federal reserves should help hold
up their expenditures up - http://www.wiredbrain.net/salestax.htm
thereby demand, income and reelection.
Since increasing
federal debt raises interests rates and creates long term problems for
social security - a off budget debt and payback scheme will help better
than traditional deficits - the states and local governments pay back the loans
with a federal sales tax on the internet - states and local governments give up
their claims and a flat national rate is added to interstate sales - In good
times the money is used to build up reserves (actual investments in CD's, state
and local bonds, foreign bonds, index funds, as well as treasuries) in
down turns it is used to prime the old pump. The same could be done with SS
trust funds, highway TRUST funds, water and waste management, airports,
utilities, communications, pipelines, grids, et al) The NRA (National Reserves
Administration) could have trillions ready to pump into a sagging economy
without increasing long term debt and actually could be making money on
investments.
If
you want more of something you support it, if you want less you tax it. We tax
work, income and investments - we support debt with equity loan credits. We
should support work, savings and investments and tax consumption and be neutral
on debt. Sales taxes are regressive so they have to include redistribution
programs. If everyone over the middle (median) income paid taxes at .5 of each
percentage over the middle 50 % - from 1% to a high of 25 % - the 75th
percentile would pay 12.5 % then each income could be adjusted for sales taxes
with credits. To encourage savings and retirement those below 50% would get
supports those over 50 % get credits - the same for health insurance, and other
payroll protections, unemployment, disability, and old age insurance.
If
the person in the middle (50 percentile) pays 15 % in payroll taxes - then
those over would pay more and those under would pay less. The benefits for the
poor would be supported from sales taxes - the richer would get credits on
their income tax for having more saving, better retirement, and health care -
as they do now with IRA and other tax free saving and health insurance, the
poor would have matching funds - save two dollar we match it with one - scaled
by percentile income group - those at the bottom get 100% benefit - those in
the middle none. (benefits reduce 2 X each percentile) - at 25th percentile
benefits are down 50 % - get it?
This
IRA would help the retirement and health care crisis with private accounts,
insurance and savings - Real reserve funds will keep us out of recessions,
promote growth, government revenues and save the nation. Any questions?
Debt, the size of the federal budget, and the classic Republic
Agenda:
Debt, the size of the federal budget,
and the classic Republic Agenda:
From a labor
intensive to a capital intensive economy:
The desire and demand for progress:
No natural system can grow forever. Forever is a long time away but cannot be put
off forever. Japan is declining; the third world gets more people, who are
mostly worse off, refugees are banging at the doors and things do not look
entirely stable.
A real global slowdown is underway and no one knows what to
do. Classical economic theory is in crisis
because it just doesn’t work – The IMF (World Bank) as the repository of tradition
thought – plugs away at fiscal responsibility, private investment, free trade,
stable currency, and capital investments in infrastructure including health and
education – but it doesn’t work except under rather special circumstances. But
what are the alternatives?
I argue http://www.wiredbrain.net/public-policy.htm
that new enterprise, invention, new technologies have been the engine of growth
for several centuries –giving a net per capital increase in productivity of 1.5
% to 2.5 % (with a lot of up and down) over the long term which doubles the
material well-being every generation.
Steam engines, mills, mines, trains, electric power, cars, radio, TV,
cable, PC’s, space and defense, and 1000’s of new products and services. Over
the last half-century the developed countries have moved from material products
to services with a big public sector.
Real reserves and real public
investments is the new idea. A mix of public-private projects in
communications, other technologies in energy, water projects, conservation,
education, health, public private partnerships have worked in space, defense,
health, and can work in most areas. In hard times the reserve funds develop
commercial projects and funds public works with revenue bonds to kick start the
economy. The issue in not big government or small, not private or public
but cooperation to maintain growth, efficiency, savings, investment, hope and
hype to stimulate "animal spirits" in depressed times and maintain
control "ill rational enthusing" during a bubble.
Third choice: spend, save, or invest;
Congress can save the Social Security surplus from
payroll taxes by using the money to pay off treasury bonds, which would reduce
interest costs and leave the trust fund in better shape when the surplus turns
into a deficient in 15 years as baby boomers born in 1950 become 65.
The surplus could be spent to stimulate the economy as
foreseen by Keynesian economics but leaves the large debt in place, adds to
interests costs and may not be big enough to work.
The third way is to invest trust funds in income
producing assets such as utility bonds to build power grid infrastructure which
have a clear and safe income stream, airport construction that is ready to go,
water and sewer projects, a lot of projects which will help the economy and
leave the trust funds in good shape. It does not pay down the treasury debt but
adds another asset so the total liability is lower. Interest costs are balanced
by interest income.
Over time real assets in public trust funds could
become trillions of dollars and create a powerful new counter circular forces –
up cycles are fired by new technologies, expanding trade areas, hype and hope, animal
spirits, investments, new activity and booming markets. As they say “trees do
not grow to the sky”. In good times the funds pay off debt.
Down cycles are set off by the burst of the bubble,
vanishing assets, collapsed capital markets, loss jobs, less consumption which
depresses investments and down and down.
The public trust funds could fill the gap – the Fed lowering interest
rates is pushing on a string – lower rates will not it self create investments
if people do not see profitable future in new investments. But public
investment funds can pull the string by public merchant banking, adventure
capital, in new income producing technologies with a public interest such as
communications, transportation, alternative energy, fuel efficient cars,
improved physical infrastructure, education construction bonds, while leaving
the net economic condition of the government no worse off. Investments in certificates of deposit allow
more bank credit; foreign bonds help the balance of payments.
Dear G.W:
Changing the subject (from
deficits to action) and appear bold and creative rather than reactive and
confused.
When faced with unfavorable
circumstances such as the budget crisis, it is wise to change the subject. The “new” supply side argument is that
the public sector needs to be involved in the capital
markets as well as labor markets. The consumer, thus far, has been spending,
even if it is on the old never-never. The problem is in capital investments.
Tax credits, lowing the capital gains tax will help but the state has to get
directly involved as it did in the 1930’s with labor markets now in capital markets. The NRA
or Federal Reserves Administration http://www.wiredbain.com/public-policy.htm should
be out there helping the capital markets just like the WPA and PWA helped the
labor markets.
“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both
when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly
understood. Little else rules indeed the world. Practical men, who believe
themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves
of some defunct economist.” Lord Maynard
Keyes, the British economist, who at the time he wrote was of course focused on
unemployment. In a book only slightly less difficult than the "General
Theory of Revivify" or Quantum Mechanics, he suggested an expanded role of
government to use proposed new high level of sponsored programs of
labor-intensive projects involving deficit spending to relieve unemployment.
The economic crisis of the time being a result of insufficient consumer
spending but now the economic crisis is a capital crisis not an employment
issue. He therefore, advocated deficit spending by governments to stimulate
economic activity he may well now suggest a wide program of public investment
to deal with a capital psychological crisis. There is no lack of capital as
there was no lack of labor. The problem is fear and uncertainty. The answer is
hype and hope to capital markets to unleash the “animal spirits” of investors.
As he said, “The social object of skilled investment should
be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelope our future.
The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones,
which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of
our minds.”
The issue today is capital, investor’s animal spirits, their
willing to venture into the unknown with great amounts of money. The new supply
side is venture capital and new technologies, not tax rates, or pump priming in
the traditional sense.
Since we are capital intensive economy the federal
participation needs focus on capital markets. The engine of growth is new
technology and governments can invest and stimulate new industries. Defense
modernization involving war fighting electronic systems, space, communications,
energy, transportation, health, education, all offer grand vistas of hope and
hype. What is needed is to change the subject from limitations, scarce
resources, and small futures to grand vistas and renewed hopes. SO change the
subject:
Real tax reform with consumption taxes – since consumption is
not the problem taxes should shift from investment, savings and income to consumption
–and reform allows for real simplification and reform.
A real national reserve accounts and trust funds – encouraging
investments in alternative energy, power distribution, air travel facilities,
space based defense systems, (smaller and more bite than tail) CD’s, mortgage
backed securities, index funds, venture capital at the universities and
national laboratories, medical applications, promoting new ideas and ventures.
I have it!
The answer to how the budget surplus would not be a drag but
an economic stimulus. The creation of the
NRA – (not the National Recovery Administration) but the National RESERVES administration
– and the entire surplus would be transferred to this agency to use as the best
economics establish according to current and projected conditions.
Mortgage backed bonds – lower rates and increase construction
and work
State and local bonds – for public works – more jobs
(includes airport construction)
Bank Certificates of deposit – lower borrowing costs by
increasing bank reserves
Index Funds – support stock prices and encourage private
investments
Corporate Bonds – lowers rates and increases capital spending
Utility Bonds – energy supply and distribution
Foreign bonds – to help the balance of payments
Thereby, the surplus would stimulate economic growth rather
than be a drag. In better times the NRA would reduce public debt and interest
payments while actually hold income-producing securities. In the long run this will allow the state to
met its obligations, reduce taxes, and main stability.
Even the 150 billion from next year would be a big start. The
NRA would be housed in the Federal Reserve, have a long term overlapping
boards, report to the trust fund managers (social security, civil service,
military pensions, highway and airport trust funds, et al ) they would hire
conservative fund managers, and have a executive board of the Federal Reserve,
the Treasury, and public members that report to congress and the President.
Liberal ideology also defeats itself:
The reason for New Labour, New Democrats and progressive
Republicans is that the older theories of politics and economics are not only
useless but also harmful to the aims they profess to promote. Tax cuts harm wealth and social welfare harms
working class and social equality. The
basic reason is that fundamental changes in the world and national economies
have moved beyond the classical models and theories.
Lower taxes (not in itself a bad idea and taxes can be much
too high) but if lower taxes causes deficits because of the failed effort to
cut cost the costs and monitory effects more than offset any benefits so the
net is negative on income, wealth, investment and growth.
More social programs force taxes too high, contribute to
deficits and slow growth, reduce incomes and make everyone worse off. The
welfare state undermines the resources need for real investments in human
capital, infrastructure and other badly needed public activity.
Therefore, intelligent fiscal management is key to both
making the rich richer with lower taxes because growth and sound money produce
the resources for them and the state at the same time. The best social welfare
is full employment and sound economics that allow clever investments in social
structure and equity.
If you want to make the rich richer and let them keep more
of their money traditional republican policy and rhetoric doesn’t work for
their supporters but in fact backfires. The problem is partly economic theory and
data is complex and doesn’t communicate well in the popular press. I cannot
find a reasonable distribution of income and expenditures. Special interests
such as the tax foundation badly distort the facts but it is hard to get at the
reality.
The concept of tax cuts comes from the Republican core
belief system rather than actual history; the fact is that lowering taxes,
while at the same time not taking on the almost impossible fight to cut total
costs, reflects the triumph of politics and ideological beliefs that the lack
of tax income will cramp the government and will lower its total take;
therefore increasing freedom, enterprise, investment and income. But it is
just not true and doesn’t work because interest costs more than make up for any
constraint on spending. Well-managed real reserves stabilize the value of
money for those who are interested in wealth protection while deficits depreciate
real assets.
Interest costs of the Reagan revolution added up to 4
% per annum of GDP or $400 billion a year and pushed governmental costs from 18
% of the economy to 22 % - leading to increased taxes and a real drag on
growth. The net effect of tax cuts were to lower income, force higher interest
costs, end up with less investment, lower savings, increased foreign negative
trade balance (disadvantages in international competition because of higher
interest costs) and finally the victories for Democrats as the results of poor
fiscal policies began to effect the daily lives of voters.
With a growing economy and some debt reduction the
cost of interest was cut to 2.5% of GNP holding expenditures at 20 % when they
could be as low as 17 %. At the same time health costs and pensions have
not grown as fast as interest costs declined so the total debt is reduced.
The current inevitable use of the Social Security
surplus to pay for current government programs will be increased over time to
cover new promises. Transfer costs and interest payments now consume the
majority of the federal budget and 3/4th if mandatory programs such as
Medicare, price supports, and other benefits are counted.
RAWFORD, Tex., Aug. 24 — President
Bush said today that there was a benefit to the government's fast-dwindling
surplus, declaring that it will create "a fiscal straitjacket for
Congress." He said that was "incredibly positive news" because
it would halt the growth of the federal government.
This is the core
of the old Reagan ideology that was wrong then and still wrong but such an
article of faith that the facts don't matter. They never suggest the budget
cuts, it's voodoo economics all over again !
The interests
costs on the debt was the major cause of increases in the federal budget - then
changes in demography - aging and modern medicine doing more and costing more.
The balanced budget act (passed without Republican Support) all ready pinched
outlays in discretionary spending (except last year when Republican Chairmen
and conference committees loaded on billions of pork) emergency agricultural
and road projects. Cuts in public programs are more depressing on the
economy than taxes. Public works and deficits may not be the simple
solution to the business cycle - but all of us as Keynesians believe that we
should save money in good times and be more expansive in bad times.
The real economy
is driven by new technology. The boom of the 60's was due not to a small
Kennedy tax cut but to the electronics boom - space, TV, transistors, and the
infrastructure they required. The stagflation of the 70's due to energy shock,
not paying for the Vietnam war, and micromanagement by the federal
reserve. The 1980's was an artificial financial boom with a weak base
using hot money from the S&L's, huge deficits, and restructuring of the
business and financial community. Clinton and Rubin set the tone for
honest conservative fiscal management along with the Fed's modernization of
economic intelligence.
The critical actor
is the Chancellor of the exchequer- the treasury, the finance minister not the
prime minister or president. Careful public management allows reasonable
growth, low inflation, spreading prosperity, stability, lower interest costs
and more resources for investments in public infrastructure, human resources
and planning for the future.
If 16 % of the labor force works for government 140
million workers = 22.4 million public employees x $35,000 average salary (1
million workers or pensioners at $1,000 = 1 billion dollars and at $35,000 each
= 35 billion x 22.5 million workers = $ 790 billion / 10 trillion economy with
2/3 as personal income or 6.65 trillion = 12 % of labor activity) actual
employees, teachers, cops, bureaucrats, plus military employees of 2.5 million
= 75 billion for military pay about 13 % of income and employment.
Public employees 13 %
Manufacturing (a little less than public) 12 %
Health not including public workers 10 %
Retired, disabled and pensions
(One million at $15,000= 15 billion x 40) 9%
Agriculture and mining 6 %
Services (almost everything else) 50 %
(Includes income from rents, dividends, capital gains etc)
There is a significant exception when accounting for
government expenditures. The government may spend money for which it does not
receive any good or service in return. Transfer payments, such as social security
benefits, unemployment compensation, and various welfare benefits, are excluded
from government spending in GDP accounting because they do not reflect
productive activity in the period in which they occur. Similarly, interest
payments on the national debt are not counted as part of government spending in
the GDP accounts.
EMPLOYMENT
1990 1995 1998
1999 2000
Civilian labor force, 16 years old and over
(mil)
125.8 132.3 137.7 139.4 140.9
Unemployed
(mil)
7.0 7.4
6.2 5.9 5.7
Unemployment rate
(percent)
5.6 5.6
4.5 4.2 4.0
Nonfarm employment, total
(mil.)
109.4 117.2 125.9 128.8 131.4
Manufacturing
(percent)
17.4 15.8 14.9
14.4 14.0
Other goods-producing industries (percent)
5.3 4.9
5.3 5.4 5.5
Private service-producing
industries
(percent)
60.5 62.8 64.1
64.6 64.8
Government
(percent)
16.7 16.5 15.7 15.7
15.7
Average annual pay
($1,000)
23.6 27.8 31.9
33.3 (NA)
Weekly earnings, 1982 dollars
259 255
268 271 272
Index of productivity
(1992=100)
95.2 102.6 110.8 113.8 118.6
Index of real compensation per hour
(1992=100)
96.5 99.3 104.6 107.1 109.0
Employment cost index (June
1989=100) 107.6
127.2 139.8 144.6 150.6
The one issue that sticks out to me is the
cost of interest payments. The "myth" of the special status of
payroll taxes is very useful in getting the debt paid down, reducing interest
costs and making social security more secure. What is needed are real
reserves - real government assets that could be used in bad times and increased
in good times rather than using debt that carries long term interest costs. Just
like a well run family or business account there should be reserves, saving as
a rainy day fund. Also a promise is a promise and hard to talk your way out of
when it's not easy or without pain. The unhappy record of this Whitehouse
in being dishonest, tricky, fast with the numbers makes it hard for them to be
believed about anything.
For honesty's sake, Democrats, Republicans, and the
media must quit using expressions like "trust fund" and
"robbing" when speaking of Social Security, for there is no trust fund,
and money cannot be "robbed" unless it is set aside, which it has
never been.
Except for the last year or two of the Clinton years the surplus has never in modern times exceeded revenue from FICA. Bush and Gore both spoke of the "lock box" for social security. Neither party has the stomach for it. Why? Because Democrats want to spend it on social programs and Republicans want to give it back in tax breaks. Neither party wants the discipline of the "lock box." Both parties use the same rhetoric when it suits them.
Even with last year's program increases, federal spending continued to fall in 2001 as a share of the economy. OMB's newest figures suggest that federal expenditures will equal about 18 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2001, which is the lowest level since 1966.
Appropriation bills enacted last fall contributed to the growth of federal spending in 2001, but they are not the reason the 2001 surplus that OMB projected this April has disappeared. The tax cut and the economic slowdown are the reasons. More generally, the 2001 expenditure increases enacted last year are only one-fifth the size of the tax cut over the long run. And as a share of the economy, total federal spending in 2001 is at its lowest level since 1966.
http://www.cbpp.org/8-28-01bud.htm
The CBO update of its baseline estimates shows a total budget surplus of $3.4 trillion between 2002 and 2011, or $2.2 trillion less than the $5.6 trillion surplus that it projected in May. About three-quarters of this decline reflects the impact of the enacted tax-cut package. Only 13 percent represents the effects of the economic slowdown — with much of the impact affecting the projections in the next few years — and the remainder results primarily from revisions to various technical assumptions. Of this $3.4 trillion total surplus, $2.5 trillion represents the surplus in the Social Security trust fund and $404 billion reflects the surplus in the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund.
- For the budget outside the Social Security trust fund, CBO estimates a ten-year surplus of $847 billion, but predicts deficits in 2001, 2003, and 2004.(1) (The non-Social Security surplus in 2002 is projected to be a mere $2 billion.)
- For the budget outside both the Social Security and Medicare HI trust funds, CBO projects a ten-year surplus of $443 billion, but anticipates a deficit in each year from 2001 through 2005.
The Congressional Budget Office's new report on the federal budget confirms that the surplus is considerably smaller than previously assumed and that, in some years, the budget outside Social Security will be in deficit. CBO now shows a surplus between 2002 and 2011 that is $2.2 trillion less than it estimated in May; about three-quarters of this decline was caused by the impact of the recently enacted tax-cut package. Moreover, these CBO estimates are less rosy than those released by the Administration last week as part of its Mid-Session Review.
Dr. Peter E. Pflaum, GlobalVillages
http://www.wiredbrain.net/
pflaump@cfl.rr.com pflaump@cfl.rr.com
P.O. Box 2176 New Smyrna Beach FL. 32170
Who am I ? see http://www.wiredbrain.net/pflaum.htm
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???
Don't be blind to what others are doing and what they know about what you are
up to AT FROM:
pflaump@cfl.rr.com
Who will keep you informed on the events just around the next
bend. In the past it was OK to let others forge the way. You could wait to see
how it turned out then buy your way in after the bugs had been removed.
Pioneers got arrows in their backs. BUT now we are all on the frontier and
can't wait until the dust settles. For example:
Who will keep you
informed on the events just around the next bend. In the past it was OK to let
others forge the way. You could wait to see how it turned out then buy your way
in after the bugs had been removed. Pioneers got arrows in their backs. BUT now
we are all on the frontier and can't wait until the dust settles. For example:
Dr. Pflaum ( for a fee ) will
research the events and technologies that will effect your future and give you
reports and advice.
www.multicrawl.com for synergy site:
use wiredbrain and "any topic"
Example: Example:
Wonders
of the Mind. GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch
http://www.spaceports.com/~sparkg/wavs/pinky/battle.wav
http://www.spaceports.com/~sparkg/
http://www.zdnet.com/ferret/images/ferret3.gif
Ferret finds 1500 Wiredbrain "pflaump" web pages
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage Excite
NewsSearch
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
COPERNIC
searches all the main engines very quickly
Make PORTALS your home page and use "wiredbrain"
password "synergy" for set-up start pages.
Alltheweb does as it claims to
be fast and large
Most search engines
now find about 30 % of the 350 million pages. So you need to check many
engines.
The Go networks does
a good job with 
What science knows
OUR
Social ergonomics
Web Hosting
Individual development, organizational change, and In the
computer industry, power comes not from the barrel of a gun but from the
interface of a
Individual
development, organizational change, and In the computer industry, power comes
not from the barrel of a gun but from the interface of a
Protocol:
He who
controls the interface controls the system.
Continued on - please let me know about errors !
Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through
many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use
GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
pflaump@cfl.rr.com - http://www.wiredbrain.net/ post.htm
VAT
initiative.htm
issues.htm
symbian.htmsalestax.htm
educational reform.htm
Back to basics:
The price of a civilized society
It’s not taxes
as such but social security, health, retirement, and education.
The core idea is they we have to look at the big
picture because you can not see the forest for the trees. Health finance is
central to any rational public financial system, pensions and retirement are
critical, also school finance, thus Health, Education and Welfare ( social
security in all the sections of the act ) are the issues of policy, growth,
stability, justice, and the future of the republic.
They are all very complex.
The answer is in a general system of payroll
deductions and contributions - individuals and households select plans for
their health care, retirement, FICA services, some cost more, some less, some
get subsidies, most are pre-tax or tax free, some are tax credits.
There are approved plans such as in the Federal
Civil Service benefit package.
Http://www.wiredbrain.net/reform.htm
Second is creation of real reserves. States and
local governments have 3 trillion or more in real reserves to fund pension
plans.
The federal government should have real saving for
social security, Medicare, Civil Service, Military retirement, and maybe the
highway trust fund, the soil and land conservation funds, the airport, water,
etc. TRUST Funds.
Thirst, is a shift from income to consumption taxes
to fund the supports for insurance, savings, health coverage, - make work and
savings more rewarding - consumption less - with a VAT or sales taxes.
Http://www.wiredbrain.net/economics.htm
I will keep looking for up to date figures but in
general we have a 10 trillion dollar economy.
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/rels.htm
Eight and one half trillion is income and
consumption five trillion in wages and salaries, ( 60 % ) 1.2 billion in
Proprietors' income and dividends, another trillion in rents and interests, (
25 % ) a trillion of transfer payments -
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrel/pi0201.htm
Of the 8.5 trillion in income - 1.4 Taxes ( 16 5 % )
= 7.1 in disposable income almost all goes into personal consumption. ( Saving
are negative - 90 billion, more spent than earned )
http://www.lib.virginia.edu/socsci/nipa/
http://www.payroll-taxes.com/
another trillion is the cost of labor or wages that
don’t count as income for tax purposes.
The employer share of payroll is not income to the worker
but a cost of labor along with unemployment, disability, and tax deferred
retirement benefits.
The federal taxes ( employee payroll and income,
capital gains ) being one trillion from taxable income or 1/7 about 15 %
effective tax rate. If you include the whole payroll costs it is about 18 % or
1.4 trillion from 8 trillion in income.
The other 500 billion in federal revenue from
corporations profits, excise and a large number of other taxes. Income includes
transfer payment - social security goes in and out - someone’s cost, another’s check.
The federal share of GDP stays around 20 %.
The 60 % of households with health insurance or 80
million pay an average of $ 8,000 for health insurance ( 1/3 out of their check
and 2/3 mostly over and above salary )
The average cost of employment is 24 % over salary -
11 % insurance, 5 % in retirement and 9 % in employer share of Social Security
and Medicare and other FICA charges. This is about 600 billion ( 50 % ) of the
1.3 trillion medical costs - Medicare, Medicare and other public ( federal and
state ) programs make up another 500 billion and co-payments, deductions, and
cash make up the rest. Hospital bill 120 % of their costs and receive 80 % of
the bill from public programs while private insurance pay more then the actual
costs.
So if you include employers share of payroll taxes
and health benefits ( which in many countries is pay through tax supported
plans ) 12.5 to 15 % of wages and benefits goes to inefficient, bureaucrat,
complex health care with no one very happy - not hospitals, nor doctors, nor
private plans ( HMO’s) or
patients. Another 15 % goes for uncertain retirement plays - so more
than 30 % of real income ( counting employer contributions as income or cost of
labor ) gives neither health or retirement security.
The basic question is how public policy promotes
economic growth or hurts it.
The Republicans firmly believe that lower taxes and
less regulation promote growth, because government can crowd out initiative and
work, less government create more freedom and more creativity. Bush now agrees
with Democrats and New Labour who believe ( now ) that "prudent"
government can provide basic public services that promote growth and keep
interest rates low.
The issue remains if tax cuts will cause boom and
bust and cause deficits and higher interest costs. Clearly there is a middle
ground here.
What is the evidence ? Is there any objective review
of what works and what doesn't ?
The other issue is the realistic long term rates of
growth, how the effects of new technology and productivity have make a
"new economy" ? Is there any non-party view - any scientific basis to
test these world view and test them with reality rather than passion, special
interest, and political log rolling.
The government is not the main engine of growth.
Psychology and human capital ( education, attitudes and applied technology )
social organization creates the conditions for the application of invention and
opening new markets, the rule of law and stability, social justice, infrastructure,
( trains, planes, roads, communications, health systems, etc. ) are the reasons
some societies do better than others and some times are better than others.
The political social climate is likely to be more
important than specific policy as long as the government accounts and rules do
no great harm - and support basic services needed for a functional society.
Trust, faith, hope, charity, belief in one's powers, safety, and the reasonable
behavior of your neighbors are the conditions that let organizations mobilize
the resources to make new products, services, and economic growth. Look at
Russia - well educated, reasonable infrastructure, great natural resources, but
a dysfunctional state, poor attitudes, lack of basic social infrastructure -
banks, commercial laws, courts, insurance, property laws, contract rules - etc.
"[T]he Federal Reserve has seen the need to
respond more aggressively than has been our wont in earlier decades," said
Greenspan. He quickly added: "
The very advances in technology that have quickened
economic adjustments have also enhanced our capacity for real-time
surveillance." STILL CLOUDY. Oh, really? That last claim is certainly
dubious. Despite vast leaps forward in the speed and quality of information
over the past quarter-century, "our capacity for real-time
surveillance" hasn't been enhanced a whit. Scant evidence shows that
professional soothsayers are any more accurate at forecasting the economy's
future than they were before. Indeed, a session called "How Clear Is
The Crystal Ball" at the recent American
Economics Assn. annual meeting suggested that the profession's forecasting
track record has deteriorated, not improved, in recent years.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/feb2001/nf20010223_072.htm
A annual growth rate at 2.5 % cuts out most of the
projected surplus ( after the "lock box" for Social Security and
Medicare ) this is the historic rate.
The projections are based on the last five years
that have averaged 3.5 %.
But in a $10 trillion economy, it's as hard as ever
for the Fed to separate out with any speed and exactness the good information
from the weekly and monthly noise, misinformation, and confusion. Greenspan may
be a legend among central bankers, but the owl of Minerva still flies at dusk.
At the end of each day, we still barely understand what will happen tomorrow.
5.6 Trillion projected surplus - based on 10 years
of 3 % growth - a base budget that is unreal - bracket crawl due to inflation (
and real growth in wealth )
1.6 Tax cut ( really bigger if you count several
required adjustments )
2.6 Debt reduction using surplus in Social Security
and Medicare " lock box" about all the debt that can be paid off of
3.3 public held debt. http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/
1 In new expenditure ( Education, defense, drug
benefits inflation, population growth etc. )
= 5.2 ( all the surplus )
No room for error - or for a 1 trillion reserve
funds
http://ecedweb.unomaha.edu/econinfo.htmWASHINGTON--America's
trade deficit with the rest of the world surged to a record $369.7 billion last
year, even though U.S. exports topped $1 trillion for the first time.
In a sign of things to come, China overtook
perennial front-runner Japan as the country with the largest trade gap with the
United States.
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the
deficit for all of 2000 was 39.5 percent higher than the previous record, $265
billion set in 1999
http://www.suntimes.com/output/business/trade22.html
Alan Greenspan in his congressional testimony that
the long term 1/3 trillion current account trade deficit is a very big problem
and has been for a long time but no one know when it will hit. Because we have
not suffered doesn't mean it won't be.
Foreign investments ( largely from Europe ) creates
a Liability, weakness, TENDENCY to exposure, VULNERABILITY - susceptibility, to
a turn about.
The susceptivity, impressibility, SENSIBILITY
potentiality, POSSIBILITY likelihood, PROBABILITY obligation, responsibility,
accountability, amenability, DUTY to the foreign owners of U.S. assets.
Foreigners have been willing to invest in the American economy at a very high
level.
The 3.5 % reduction in GNP because of the trade
imbalance is balanced by foreign purchase of American assets.
In short if global capital markets come to believe
that American assets are no longer a good investment, or other markets are
better - or there is a currency risk, or a down turn in America they may wish
to sell assets and transfer dollars into other currencies. BANG ! 1/3 trillion
of foreign holding each year over many years has created 5 trillion of foreign
holding = national debt ( more or less ) the policy is not hopeless - there are
things we can do now ( as in Social Security and Medicare ) not wait for a
crisis -
The first big step would be the VAT - which works
like an export support. ( Social overhead costs are reduced on exports since
they don't pay VAT ) this would also improve our tax system and tax imports - http://www.wiredbrain.net/salestax.htm
Slowly lower the value of the dollar - the Federal
Reserve and move the market -
The Treasury can talk it down -
The IMF can help - more radically is to tie the
dollar to the EURO ( with the pound ) to create a defacto global currency for a
global economy.
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1.
BEA Home
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Mid-Decade Strategic Review of BEA's Economic Accounts:
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The committee met, pursuant to call
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GDP Definition: Gross Domestic Product
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Chapter 1: Monitoring Macroeconomic Performance
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Amazon.com:
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Seven Unsustainable
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The U.S. economy has now been
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Payment Taxonomy and Glossary -
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Weekly
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The Costs of Inflation and DisinflationVolume 14 Number 2, Fall 1994 THE COSTS OF INFLATION AND DISINFLATION Kevin Dowd While
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Paolo new
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How We Want to
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The Project 'How We Want to Live
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Ecological Economics Basics - Green Economic
Theory, Indicators, GDP, GNP, GPI, CFI, ISEW, HDIIntroduction
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income, wages, average hourly earnings employment situation, consumer
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SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN KOREA,
1953-1993<BR> by Irma Adelman<BR>
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Tanzania Economy
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The main macroeconomic policy objectives
for 1997/98 aimed at achieving 5.0 percent real GDP growth, an average
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Economics; Cost of Living;
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These are samples of the best Web sites about practical economics. Practical means
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UC Santa Cruz - Menzie David Chinn
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The Economic Crisis in Korea and UNDP Policy ResponseResponding to the Economic Crisis in the
Republic of Korea A Working Paper Prepared for the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) by Dr. Pak Po-Hi President, IN i SIRCH May 1998 Copyright © 1
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Germany:
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confidence, unemployment, average hourly earnings, durable goods Analysis
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the product of a private/public sector initiative between the U.S. Small
Business Administration and AT&T. SBA's participation in this
co-sponsorship activity does not
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The Dismal Scientist Economy: Consumer price Index data, CPI, PPI, GDP, GNP, retail sales,
personal income, employment situation
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The Inflation Calculator
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The following form adjusts any given amount of money for inflation, according to the
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Kenneth Rogoff Homepage
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The Health Consequences of Smoking; Do Smokers Know
Their Risks and Bear
Their Costs? Measures to Reduce the Demand for Tobacco;
Measure to Reduce the Supply of Tobacco;
The Costs and Consequences of Tobacco Control; An Agenda for
Action.
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AMPP: Corporate Transnationalism
The Banking Scam Corporate Transnationalism ``Corporation, n.
An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual
responsibility.'' -Ambrose Bierce,
The Devil's Di
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Economic Indicators -- Gross Domestic Product
(GDP)
The gain was led by the largest increase in consumer
spending in 17 years. Additionally, while the
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A conversation with C.
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No
Title
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What's a Dollar
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the
ratio of the value of a basket of goods in the current year to the value of
that same basket of goods in an earlier year.
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Part 1: Basic Concepts
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96.
NationalEconomic
Recovery Plan | Chapter 2: Macroeconomic O...
The estimate was done in October last year for the 1998
budget based on statistics that showed positive development for the first three
quarters of 1997.
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The ...
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The Global Economic Effects of the Japanese CrisisBack to Working Papers 1998 INSTITUTE FOR INTER NATIONALECONOMICS Working Paper 98-6
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE JAPANESE CRISIS
Marcus Noland Institute for InternationalEconomics Sherman Robinson
International Food Policy Research
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Trafford
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411 S_00 Situation and Outlook - Economic
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The UK is one of the world's great trading powers and
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107.
The
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108.
NationalEconomic
Recovery Plan | Chapter 2: Macroeconomic O...
There are some grounds for optimism
among the industrial countries although developments have been mixed and
cyclical positions differ widely. On average they are expected to experience
moderate output growth around 2.1 percent per annum in 1998
( Table 4).
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109.