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http://www.neweconomyindex.org/states/strategies.html
Since recessions follow booms as winter follows summer
maybe we should expect down turns and make plans. This is called counter cycle
activity - the most natural approach is to have reserves, saving which can be
called into play when needed - such as some states, countries, firms and
individual have a rainy day funds because it will rain. Now it is harder to
fix the roof when it is raining but it still needs to be fixed.
Since states and local government (utilities,
communications and other firms) make the problem worse by cutting back
during recessions - the federal reserves should help hold up their
expenditures up - http://www.wiredbrain.net/salestax.htm
thereby demand, income and reelection.
Since increasing federal debt raises interests rates
and creates long term problems for social security - a off budget debt
and payback scheme will help better than traditional deficits - the states and
local governments pay back the loans with a federal sales tax on the internet
- states and local governments give up their claims and a flat national rate
is added to interstate sales - In good times the money is used to build up
reserves (actual investments in CD's, state and local bonds, foreign bonds,
index funds, as well as treasuries) in down turns it is used to prime
the old pump. The same could be done with SS trust funds, highway TRUST funds,
water and waste management, airports, utilities, communications, pipelines,
grids, et al) The NRA (National Reserves Administration) could have trillions
ready to pump into a sagging economy without increasing long term debt and
actually could be making money on investments.
If you
want more of something you support it, if you want less you tax it. We tax
work, income and investments - we support debt with equity loan credits. We
should support work, savings and investments and tax consumption and be
neutral on debt. Sales taxes are regressive so they have to include
redistribution programs. If everyone over the middle (median) income paid
taxes at .5 of each percentage over the middle 50 % - from 1% to a high of 25
% - the 75th percentile would pay 12.5 % then each income could be adjusted
for sales taxes with credits. To encourage savings and retirement those below
50% would get supports those over 50 % get credits - the same for health
insurance, and other payroll protections, unemployment, disability, and old
age insurance.
If the
person in the middle (50 percentile) pays 15 % in payroll taxes - then those
over would pay more and those under would pay less. The benefits for the poor
would be supported from sales taxes - the richer would get credits on their
income tax for having more saving, better retirement, and health care - as
they do now with IRA and other tax free saving and health insurance, the poor
would have matching funds - save two dollar we match it with one - scaled by
percentile income group - those at the bottom get 100% benefit - those in the
middle none. (benefits reduce 2 X each percentile) - at 25th percentile
benefits are down 50 % - get it?
This IRA would help the retirement and health care crisis with private accounts, insurance and savings - Real reserve funds will keep us out of recessions, promote growth, government revenues and save the nation. Any questions?
Things people (should) know but don’t say:
The Missile defense system is a cover for high tech warfare.Since the USA has more military capacity than the rest of the world put together there is little risk in reductions in conventional capacity while spending big time on new space warfare systems. Public support for vast overcapacity of traditional forces will not last as the budget get tight.
http://www.wiredbrain.net/defense.htm
Humans are not created as humans at conception but at viability or birth, with the breath of life.There is no sound theological basis for the creation of a human soul at conception and without a divine soul the whole issue of destroying a person is absurd. The real issue is abortion and only about abortion not stem cells, cloning, brave new world test tube babies, or even science and religion but about the political skills of the “right to life” lobby. The actual effects will be a great deal less than it appears. The powerful research industry is not managed by a weak federal regulatory scheme.
http://www.wiredbrain.net/stemcells.htm
The solution to the Israel / Palestine problem is
neither restored occupation or an independent Palestine entity.Neither
would bring peace – occupation would be marked by riots – independence
by even more terrorism because an important minority still wants to drive
the Jews into the sea and the civil government can not or will not impose
order on violent minorities.
Therefore:
The West Bank needs to be reintegrated into Jordan – a few thousand military observers include UN and anti-terrorist forces from Jordan would maintain order and set up local governments and services.
And the Gaza folded into an Egyptian - Arab league trusteeship with security provided by the anti terrorist police from Saudi Arabia.
The program needs to include the millions of natives
not in occupied territories but in Jordan, Lebanon, and all over the Middle
East.
The solution comes from a Western – Arab league solution imposed on the parties who cannot solve the problem on their own. The settlements must be removed either voluntarily or not.The leadership of Palestine has collapsed, Israel cannot get beyond racial prejudice – it is a JEWISH state who behaves towards the natives as Europeans did to Native Americans.
Dr. Pflaum ( for a fee ) will research the events and technologies that will effect your future and give you reports and advice.
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Individual development, organizational change, and In the computer industry, power comes not from the barrel of a gun but from the interface of a
In
the world but not of the world - leaders who could represent and appeal
to common values while not being completely tied to ancient and common
sense and tradition. The Diaspora required Jews to be both Jewish and German,
or Russian or American and Jewish. It's a complex act of appearing to be
a "regular guy" and talk the common talk - while being different from the
common herd and having a higher vision. It's OK to be a little better than
the mob but not too much better or having strange, threaten or non-traditional
non-Christian habits or ideas. A delicate balance between change and stability
has to be maintained in the face of an aggressive enemy. This allowed Jewish
tribes to survive when 1000's of other tribes have vanished into the mists
of history. The cultural evolutionary advantage of Jews was tradition and
flexibility. They kept going in alien cultures despite precursors
which were finally unleash during the great holocaust.
It
is a issue of church, state and people –
The
church should have and express its values - it's an important job and can
make for salvation and a better world - people should accept traditional
values for the most part because it makes things easier if there is a common
level of trust and understanding. (Racism, bigotry, jingoism, regionalism
are examples of traditional values) Common values allow the law to operate
within a accepted moral context. When people smoke grass, fornicate, don't
pay their bills, cheat, lie, etc. it creates a society of potheads, pleasure
seekers, thieves etc. Surely a policy issue just as racism, America Firsters,
Know-nothing, et al were issues in their time.
NOW
the hard part; what is the role of the secular state in administration
of civic virtues? Should rules and law impose PC? The use of
religious logic or passion in making public policy is both common and tricky.
Since the founders did not believe there was a TRUE (beautiful and ethic)
ideology - the Christian ideology was looked at as an ancient superstition,
which help support an evil system of tyranny and aristocracy. No other
ideology or ism could or should take its place. There is no constitutional
ideology and those who try to impose their ideology (free markets, capitalism,
Christian, federalism, etc. are free to do so but do not reflect the true
intent of the founders) The American Dream is free of content it is a method.
The
founders believed in a process. What they suggested was method - process
not policy or outcome. Like civil justice the process - argument, due process,
juries, would produce a good a result as you can in an imperfect world.
Universities, science, free press, are other examples where method is the
message - ways of inquiry, evidence, and research - for rational solutions
to rational problems. It does not provide a way to make moral judgment.
It does not give "TRUTH" and therefore cannot substitute for religion,
spirit, hope, trust, et al.
So
again we have a balance - good people and institutions - open political
process - due process - civil rights and free speech - property and free
markets to unpin civil liberties - but not all in one but a balance - a
struggle - so it is good that some are little government individualist,
while others believe in collective action and everything in between. So
religion has a vital role to play - in a civil society. NO DOUBT in communities
and people's lives it is a critical anchor.
Where
the fundamentalist from USS-was, Nazis and Chinas Communists, Iran's Islam's,
Jewish settlers, and those who were extreme anti-communist, these anti-stem
cells types are a pest and stupid if they don't get the chance to be evil
- but they add voices to the balance. I disagree but support their right
to make fools of themselves. We have only one president and I am sadden
to see him as a weak, ineffectual, petulant, spoiled brat of the aristocracy,
with a Childs idea of religion with big daddy in the sky a reflection of
his own big daddy who outclasses him, he who want to get his way but gives
up when told no firmly by grownups.
Darrow
(the rationalist) lost to Bryan (the fundamentalist) in the "Monkey Trials"
portrayed in “inherit the wind” – The teacher was convicted and had to
pay a $2.00 fine for teaching evolution - but Bryan lost the argument.I
just point out that extreme ideology is a bad guide to policy. Modern government
is largely a business affair - but requires mobilization of soul, hope,
faith, and trust but hopefully in a secular popular democracy not as emotional
as a religious revival.
The success of the American (and European) democratic republics depends not on ideology but just the opposite. American was not founded as a Christian nation - because the rebellion was against the ancient regime; the only function ideology was that of the establishment - God created the existing order, everyone was it their proper place - Kings and peasants. The Church was the bulwark of divine rights and established order. Non-conformities, masons and revolutionaries believed in the divine rights of individuals. Since no church or state could or should control everyone's fate - they were open to civic systems of orderly choice. Political and religious liberty are rights of individuals not given but just there because we say so. Institutional systems are to serve these rights by protecting them from chaos and anarchy as well as the authorities of governments. Protection comes from process - a faulty system like trial by jury but the best you can do. The process was the message. No ideology beyond that - a lawyers approach to truth and justice.
What
do you understand by globalization? Is it a good or a bad thing? Or is
it simply inevitable?
International welfare reform:
There are three groups of problems –a kind of triage in
dealing with international development. The basket cases or failed societies
– the Congo and much of central Africa for example. Second, the group actually
developing economic and social systems with strategies for development
such as Nigeria and South Asia, very poor but with a minimum level of organization.
Third those at the take off stages such as Mexico, Southeast Asia and most
of Latin America have structure and working markets. China and Russia are
special cases in the third group.
With the first group, poor and dysfunctional or disrupted
societies, some form of neo-colonist or trustee relationships – run by
regional organizations – some form of community control and intensive casework
is necessary. It is like putting drug addicts in half way house with close
supervision. You cannot trust them with money or free choices. In places
like Haiti it is necessary to have the organizational support of outsiders
– The OAS and UN need to have a long-term presences actually running a
lot of things.The government is
made up of warring gangs and can’t do much useful but can make trouble
so need to be put in its place.
With the second, poor but only semi-functional, where
the basic problem is corruption, NGO and private enterprise such as mini-banks
and other infrastructure needs to be done with direct management rather
than through corrupt national or regional elites. This is like using vouchers,
work-study or supported labor projects, and other transitional support
services for those who can management their own affairs but need a lot
of assistance. In parts of South Asia and most of Africa self-help projects
do and can work, increasing productivity in agriculture, small labor-intensive
industry, distribution, resource development, with contractors paid directly
to make roads, electric systems, water projects – business development,
education and public health.
The last group, poor but honest, Eastern Europe, most
of Latin America, can use the current systems of direct assistance with
loans and grants – do their own planning and financial management, just
need more access to investment and temporary aid.Sort
of like income support and technical assistance, retraining, on-the-job
supports, insurance, and networking connections.
Because it is inevitable and “the only
game in town” doesn’t mean criticism is unjustified, but of course, riots
are rarely justified and seem to be more of a sporting event than serious
debate.The trade arrangements need
to be pressured on labor and environmental standards because the push for
expansion in less developed areas is motivated by cheap labor and weak
regulations.Competition based on
the lowest labor costs is natural – Japan’s recovering economy after World
War II depended on low priced goods especially textiles and the rag trade.
Labor-intensive work moved from the British Midlands (Minimum wage about
6 pounds) and New England to the American South, (Minimum wages of about
6 dollars) to Mexico and Central America (a dollar an hour), Haiti (two
dollars a day) and the Philippines, Indonesia to China. M&S must go
with the market an import from the low cost source.
International arrangements should have
some pressure on labor rights and environmental protection to create some
balance.
The
protest itself is a good example of Globalization –
"What
is happening now hasn't happened since the anti-Vietnam war protests of
the 1960s," he told me. "Young people from around the globe are coming
together to campaign for economic justice - and our movement is growing."
BBC News, BUSINESS: Among the protesters
She says the protests are as much about cultural as economic concerns, and praises the "radical street warriors" for showing the world that you cannot dehumanise people and for "reclaiming our most human desires."
It is important to understand the social psychological base for the protest. These people feel left out - big means less individual feeling of participation, of being part of the whole. The group could promote the development of a global peace corps and person-to-person contacts to help people feel global – feel more attached to a larger humanity. There should be ways of redirecting all this energy into productive activity - conflict resolution - social services - projects in the poor world building practical projects - maybe financed by the world bank - a IMF / world bank international youth corps in health, education, economic development would be a good start.
Religion and politics:
If there were a set of beliefs or theology that was a reliable guide to policy then the nations that adapted that ideology would be health, wealth and wise. The closest thing we have is open debate, the objective scientific method, democracy and due process. No set of fixed ideas will guide humanity to do the right thing. So ideology is a bad guide to action, fixed rules to justice, dogmatic theories of education, management, family regulation, et al none of these beliefs are certain to make the world work better. Too bad - If there were evolution would have promoted those who followed the rules over those who ignored them. Since most of the world lives life that are short, brutish and poor - creation of such universal wisdom would be even more important than missile defense systems.
Bush is in a jam only because he wants to placate the leave-no-embryo-behind crowd. Will he put politics ahead of a research program that has the potential to alleviate the suffering of millions of embryos-turned-humans? If he does, he ought to be aware of where such a road leads: federal protection of made-in-the-lab embryos.
Brownback (a senator from Kansas) offers a public service by displaying the extremism within the anti-abortion camp. Let's grant him -- for a moment -- his point that an embryo, no matter its origin, is sacred and ought to be defended from harm. Then what must be done with the thousands of leftover embryos in fertility clinics? Must they be kept frozen and intact for all time? Who bears this responsibility? The clinics? The couples? The government? Should there be a federal depository for all test-tube embryos not being used for procreation? Perhaps the task can be given to the same crew charged with looking after nuclear waste for tens of thousands of year. A theological solution to the stem cell issue -
| 7 | And the LORD God formed man of the dust of the ground, and breathed into his nostrils the breath of life; and man became a living soul. 1 Cor.15.45 |
That's an intriguing distinction. A woman is free to do
what she wants with an embryo outside her body, but she has no choice when
an embryo is inside her body. According to Hatch, an in-the-womb embryo
is on its way to personhood, while "a frozen embryo is more akin to a frozen
or unfertilized egg or frozen sperm." But his formulation begs the question:
What's the moral difference between trashing an embryo in a petri dish
and aborting a just-fertilized egg in the womb? Is there a religious or
ethical principle at stake? Does God favor one embryo over another?
http://www.tompaine.com/news/2001/07/09/index.html
The
Emperor of China:
OK
Mr. Know-it-all, we will make you the Emperor of China. You are a modern
progressive monarch and want to drag China into the modern world as quickly
as possible. You believe in democratic process, actual elected officials,
legislatures, ( Canton)opposition parties, a free press, local government,
an independent judiciary, and all the process of human rights. GREAT!
Now there is a major problem of corruption. Local gangs and extended families firmly grasp parts of the economy, because loyalties only extend to close family and relations. Regional and class conflicts become exasperated, Tibet, Mongolia, start liberation movements and terrorism. Class conflict become terrible as some become very rich and others become even poorer; the contrast between luxury cars and broken bicycles causes more strikes, riots, and fragmentation of the nation, which increases an economic crisis. There is a rise of various cults, Christian groups (the great Invincible Army) and Boxers as extreme nationalist.
The
currency tanks and the banks such as they are collapse causing foreign
intervention in the south (Canton and Shanghai) to protect major foreign
investments.Some parts are in famine
other with a rotting surplus. People do not pay taxes to the state and
the military is restless and threatens rebellion. There is a general lack
of civic values, good citizenship, honest public administration, civil
justice, due process – and parts of the Peoples Liberation Army become
major commercial operations, which support essentially private armies and
warlords.Because you stick to constitutional
and legal process you are perceived as weak and attempts to be tough only
backfire and cause more trouble. There are conspiracies everywhere.
Almost everyone is worse off as in the USS-was and Iran and most of the
non-European population of former colonial empires.
An industrial rebellion in the South led to a general uprising and a new group of politicians, commercial king pins, and generals overthrow the government and you flee the country with a few family and close allies and as much cash as you can. GREAT! I guess you really didn’t know enough about China to give advice or run their affairs.
National focus and the disfigurations
of journalism:
Journalism is in a mess – except of
a few quality national newspapers and their web sites – the multi-media
format of the BBC working with NPR and maybe the NYT - Washington post
could come up with a new world media for internet, public radio, and television.
The commercial media is more and more hopeless because of both fragmentation
and centralization. There are two issues, information and policy, because
politics and media are joined at the hip in defining the agenda and action;
What people know (or think they know)
and how do they know it. Do they know enough about the world they inhabit?
How much is propaganda of various interests? What are the real issues of
current history? Journalism at its best reflect a concept of history and
how today’s events relate to meaningful themes in history such as demographic
factors, economic, culturally, politically, technological, scientific,
developments et al with people who know the subject, are honest and straightforward.
The specialized reporting for special
subjects – markets, communications, biology, is better than ever. The issue
is national or global agenda or common knowledge or attention. Can the
collective focus on the aging of the population and the issue of public
retirement and health plans, political process, transparency and corruption
in private and public life, AIDS, land and agricultural issues, energy,
pollution, race relations, etc. There was a time when a idea (The Shame
of the Cities, Meat processing, The Silent Spring) or civil rights would
work their way through the media to the mass agenda and political action.
Now the linkage is weakened by events with good pictures – but no other
significant – a media frenzy, sound and fury signifying nothing.
Political leader or issue constituencies have a hard time and need a lot of money to overcome the noise and scattered brained entertainment. So nothing or very little gets done as a collective society. We are lucky that it hasn’t had terrible results but will sooner or latter. There are things that have to be done or they get a lot worse and waiting until there is a crisis will be very expensive. Health, welfare, education, trade policy, global warming, will not solve themselves or within the current media and political context. What remains of the establishment and intellectual leadership should pay attention.
An ideologically fragmented media has dangers and benefits. Its dangers are that we cease to share a common discourse as a nation. Without common media we may become more polarized and “ghetto-ized.” The benefits are that we are actually getting some real reporting. When the Bush administration screws up big time it may be CNN’s turn to break the story – if they haven’t forgotten how. Perhaps objectivity isn’t its all cracked up to be. Perhaps we’re getting closer to the Founder’s vision of a free press, with differing editorial views.
and yellow journalism trash - Channel 9 says it has a Edward R. Morrow award - good grief - roll in your grave ! If it bleeds it lends - newsreaders who have no idea what they are talking about - not news judgment but what will interest people - hype a new danger, consumer affairs, things that magazines do - but news is current history - on going events that shape our lives - growth, transportation, environment, economics, education, civil rights, are all overwhelmed and distracted by trivia - and audience abuse.
I get the BBC on the internet which shows what news is all about - C-span, which maybe the solution - a NPR - BBC - CBC union on radio and cable. ( direct broadcast ) they will need to keep to the center.
When the three networks were at their height of their power in the 1960's and 70's everyone needed to listen to see what they had to say. It was not what happened but how it was reported, what was the "spin". They clearly had too much influence. Then there was the "above the fold" in the NYT theme - everyone covering the same stories to be safe and easy - now there is almost no foreign coverage, and the big three networks have only 1/3 of the market - so now the issue is fragmented and it's hard to set a national agenda. Maybe there are no big issues like Vietnam, the cold war, civil rights, environmental, that focused attention in the past.
Then the issue of money in politics - more and more veto groups. Then the "bully pulpit" is mostly a photo op. Today with immigrants and Catholics - Bush seems to lack oratorical skills to mobilize the public. Since the right does not want to do much they benefit from fragmentation - And the growth of new right wing media helps with mostly distractions and attack politics. The special interests who want to cut the trees, drill the oil, butcher those cows, abuse those workers, sell those "ethical" drugs on TV, the right's paymasters want to resist attention and regulation. While "they" want transparency in Foreign places - they resist transparency in their business and political affairs. ( Transparency = regulation )
So since the issues are smaller, the politicians are smaller, and the media smaller and less important - Great issues create great leaders and major media - little issues, little leaders, little news -
The
Emperor of China:
OK
Mr. Know-it-all, we will make you the Emperor of China. You are a modern
progressive monarch and want to drag China into the modern world as quickly
as possible. You believe in democratic process, actual elected officials,
legislatures, (Canton) opposition parties, a free press, local government,
an independent judiciary, and all the process of human rights. GREAT!
Now there is a major problem of corruption. Local gangs and extended families firmly grasp parts of the economy, because loyalties only extend to close family and relations. Regional and class conflicts become exasperated, Tibet, Mongolia, start liberation movements and terrorism. Class conflict become terrible as some become very rich and others become even poorer; the contrast between luxury cars and broken bicycles causes more strikes, riots, and fragmentation of the nation, which increases an economic crisis. There is a rise of various cults, Christian groups (the great Invincible Army) and Boxers as extreme nationalist.
The
currency tanks and the banks such as they are collapse causing foreign
intervention in the south (Canton and Shanghai) to protect major foreign
investments.Some parts are in famine
other with a rotting surplus. People do not pay taxes to the state and
the military is restless and threatens rebellion. Because you stick with
legal process and protect the constitution you are seen as weak and useless.
There is a general lack of civic values, good citizenship, honest public
administration, civil justice, due process – and parts of the Peoples Liberation
Army become major commercial operations, which support essentially private
armies and warlords. Because you stick to constitutional and
legal process you are perceived as weak and attempts to be tough only backfire
and cause more trouble.There are
conspiracies everywhere.Almost
everyone is worse off as in the USS-was and Iran and most of the non-European
population of former colonial empires.
An industrial rebellion in the South led to a general uprising and a new group of politicians, commercial king pins, and generals overthrow the government and you flee the country with a few family and close allies and as much cash as you can. GREAT! I guess you really didn’t know enough about China to give advice or run their affairs.
Gross Domestic Product:
Who wins and who doesn’t with the current social-economic-political system?
After all is said and done – government effects the allocation of values and resources.
Winners – medicine, the elderly (and sun belt with older populations)
Defense is also a Sun Belt industry
Non-wage income (rents, interests, dividends – stock options)
i.e. Republicans in the blue regions
Losers include the majority of household
in debt i.e. Democrats and the Midwest and Northeast the red regions but...
New Technology and services replace
traditional industrial production in the Far West the suburbs of industrial
cities.
GDP is now about 10,000 billion dollars – 1,000 billion = 1 trillion
(mixed public and private costs) $7,500 private $2,500 public
$ 250 for public education 2.5 % mostly via property taxes and sales taxes (less than defense $300 public)
Total:
15 % $ 1,400 ( $700 public ) for medical services 13 % only beaten by whole technology sector
33% $ 1,800 ($300 public) including communications (some technology goes to medicine), which is equal to (18%)
53% $ 2,000 ($50 public) food, clothing, recreation, telephone, debt service and other basic costs
63% $ 1,000 ($50 public) housing, and home operations
73% $ 1,000 ($100 public ) transportation (cars, planes, trains, boats and fuel)
100% $ 2,500 ($500 public) services
– restaurants, banks, travel hotels, public services (police, bureauracy)
The federal budget is about $ 2,000 – includes $ 850 of income transfer (out of someone’s income as taxes and into some else as a benefit)
Discretionary is $ 650 ½ (billion) of which is 300 billion is in Defenses
Mandatory is $ 1030 (2/3 Social security, food stamps, welfare and medical – civil service and veterans retirement – trust funds only 25 % is means tested i.e. pure welfare)
Interest 225
http://www.econlib.org/library/sources.html
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=1821&sequence=0&from=7
| Medicaid |
Other |
Total
Means- Tested |
Social
Security |
Medicare |
Other
Retirement and Disability |
Unemployment
Compensation |
Farm
Price Supports |
Deposit
Insurance |
Other |
Total
Non- Means- Tested |
|
|
|
|
|
|
117.4
|
|
118.6
|
|
235.9
|
|
406.0
|
|
216.0
|
|
87.8
|
|
20.7
|
|
30.5
|
|
-3.1
|
|
35.8
|
|
793.9
|
|
1,029.8
|
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrel/gdp101f.htm
2/3 is consumption or about $ 6,500 billion
Durable goods (cars, appliances, household goods)$ 800
Non-durable (food, clothes, gas, consumables)
$ 2,000
Services................ 3,618.2
Housing...................861.6
Household operation 376.7
Electricity and gas.......134.2
Other household operation.242.5
Transportation 253.7
