

Peter E. Pflaum - Golden Globe -
The Synergy Network Wiredbrain home site ppppflaump@cfl.rr.com
Will the real Future, please stand up?
In a few places on the planet the Agricultural
revolution of 30,000 years ago is not firmly in place.
The
Bushmen of S.W. Africa are just adapting to being farmers
from hunter gathers. In my travels to north Africa the yoke
is not used but oxen are pulling by their horns - I've seen
this in Latin America as well. In Haiti the Age of
Enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution, Liberal Democracy
are some where in their future. Of the five billion souls on
the Earth maybe a billion are living in the present. Even in
America, Great Britain, France, Spain and other industrial
countries there are pockets of peasant farmers unchanged over
the last century.
The future will increase these differences.
The gaps
become wider.
The future is for some but not for others:
The future is coming at us and we have little control
over what it will be. An image of the future is one of our
most important assets. What we would like it to be may help
shape the reality of what it will be.
The present has not been close to past projections and
"futurist" thinking. I have been reading
"futurist" from the 70's and 80's and wonder why
they are so wrong. It's not clear why the major themes of
today are almost always missed. Why does futurist thought
become so quick dated and obsolete. One reason is has been it
is technology based, not principle based. Futurism has
consistently fail to understand the driving forces in
society.
The engines that make the future not the engineers
in the roundhouse making new gadgets.
The competitive position of the world, the changes in
the USS was, declines in social values and collective virtue,
crisis of confidence, decline of public sector, all have been
missed, missed, missed
The futurist are almost all dated and
short sighted. Why has there been such a systemic failure to
understand global trends. Why do futurist thought of the last
decade seem so misguided and wrong? All the major trend have
been over looked and almost all the their thoughts are not
meaningful to today world. No other field become so quick
obsolete. Even the grateful dead are still with us. If you
look at almost any of the literature of the 70's or 80's from
the Club of Rome, to thousands of expert reports on the
future they are all strangle dated.
They are so wrong as to
cause wonder if there is a systemic bias that lead otherwise
smart people to be so wrong.
One problem is the pack instinct, they all say the same
wrong things. It is the focus on technology and "what it
can do". Technology is not the engine of change but
social-technical systems.
They have missed the train while
talking to the engineers in the roundhouse. What are the
engines that drive the future and why can't we see it.
The
underlining social values and collective actions that
underline change have been understood by Monanhan, Wilson,
Lipsets, Bell, and many other social scientist.
The decline in elites and power structures means a much
more defuse system. It is international competition that
drive s the engine on Health Care, Education, restructure
etc.
The USS was, was trying to keep up when it failed.
The
engine is coming at us and we need to see where we and it are
going. We have some control over the future we want or the
future we get.
The image of the future is out greatest asset.
It has been very cloudy. Futurist are of no use. We will have
to understand the world and our motives for ourselves and pay
more attention to the wisdom of novelist, social critics,
even journalist.
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