( 
|
The Wiredbrain Synergy Site |
|
|
The
Futures themselves
The open book to the future |
|
|
|
The chinese MPT actually operates 40 million lines, (approx.
2.5 lines per hundred inhabitants) and has fixed itself an objective to
reach five lines per hundred inhabitants by the year 2000. On the industrial
side, the main supplier to mainland China for public switches is
Alcatel (about 48% market share); ALA
: ALCATEL ALSTHOM (NYSE)
following is Siemens (12%), SMAWY : SIEMENS A G (OTC:
BB) 68
Ericsson (11%) ERICSSON L M TEL CO ADR CL B (
ERICY)
48 1/2
and Northern Telecom (8%). NT : NORTHERN TELECOM LTD
(NYSE)
In the mobiles, several provinces have adopted the
European GSM standard.
China will add 200 million phones
ASAP..
China's telecommunications market has become the fastest
growing market in the world. Each year, some 20 million phones are added
to the national network.
The number of cellular phone subscribers exceeded
10 million by mid-1997. According to China's Ministry of Post and
Telecommunications,
by the year 2000, China's PSTN switching capacity will exceed 170 million
lines, with more than 20 million mobile phone users.
.
NETWORKS
NEW YORK -
Satellite
maker Loral Space & Communications Ltd. says it has agreed to buy
Orion Network Systems Inc. -- which has a satellite system set to provide
communications services to 85 percent of the world's population. "Orion
complements and extends our current resources in Skynet, Globalstar and
CyberStarr, contributing a key networking capability positioned to serve
the fast-growing, multibillion-dollar corporate data and Internet markets."
"Skynet provides satellite services to broadcasting,
news media and educational customers. Globalstar, in which Loral owns a
38 percent equity stake, is one of several planned global satellite telephone
services and is set to go into service in late 1998. CyberStarr is a satellite-based
system that will offer a variety of low-cost, high speed data and
telecommunications
services around the world "
These systems will attach to cable channels click able
information and services:
The ability to buy directly from the commercial -
an online wallet will order directly from ads.
The whole systems becomes a home shopping network;
Additional information and links to commercial home
pages;
Background information on news stories and sports:
On-demand Video - movies will be downloaded to Video
Hard Drives ( when the standards are finally established ) and charged
to run on a per day basis or be sold.
New services in banking, financial services ( stock
trading ) travel and hundreds of other new and improved products.
PC’s or NC’s plug into the Internet via network cards
and cable or Direct Broadcast modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s over mega-bytes connections -
multi-billion business will bring gains to
:
For the late
breaking news
Cable Companies
Direct broadcast and wireless
upload loops
modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) production
program support for "on-demand" software
Advertising agencies that get on board quickly
Financial services, Banks, Brokers,
Catalog sales and distribution
UPS and other delivery services
Digital Video drives
Network computers
Virtual office and home work - digital commuters
All kinds of new business not possible now
For Example:
What
is the Celestri System? (Click on Image)
The Celestri System is Motorola's proposed communications network formed
from integrated family of advanced communications satellites, ground stations
and terrestrial equipment that is designed to provide a broad range of
multimedia, video and data services to communications carriers, multinational
corporations, small- and medium-sized business, as well as telecommuters
and other customers throughout the world.
The
Razor and the Blades:
The BIG picture long term ( 5 years )
Craig McCaw, 48, has a personal fortune valued at more
than $2 billion stemming largely from his role as founder of pioneering
McCaw Cellular Communications, which was sold to AT&T Corp. for $11.5
billion in 1993. Since then he has remained active in
telecommunications,
taking a controlling interest worth nearly $700 million in Nextel Communications
Inc., a mobile radio services company, and founding Nextlink Communications
Inc., a competitive local exchange carrier. Nextlink went public last month,
and its stock has risen more than 60 percent, giving McCaw a stake valued
at $800 million. McCaw also is an investor along with Microsoft Corp. Chairman
Bill Gates in privately held Teledesic Corp., which plans to launch hundreds
of low Earth orbit satellites to form a high
bandwidth
global data network. McCaw also controls Cable Plus, which provides cable
television service to apartment complexes.
TCI: chairman John Malone used the
company's annual meeting to take a shot at Microsoft chairman Bill Gates.
Malone chided Gates for attempting to be the only supplier of the new digital-cable
package. "Bill has to accept the fact that he can't have total dominance
here as he does in computers," said Malone.
The joint ventures come one day before TCI officials
are scheduled to meet with investors in New York to review plans to launch
a new class of stock, designed to track the performance of its international
and telecommunications businesses.
The new class of stock, TCI Ventures
Group, will include Teleport Communications Group Inc., Sprint Spectrum
LLP, @Home Corp., and Tele-Communications International Inc. Unveiled in
June, the stock is scheduled to become effective Sept. 10. However, shares
are trading on a when-issued basis at about 19-1/2, above the 17-1/2 price
of TCI's class A
Cablevision Systems Corp. and @Home Corp. have agreed
to form a strategic alliance to deliver high speed Internet service to
key East Coast markets including New York, Boston, and Cleveland, both
companies said on Thursday.
The deal is similar to those struck with @Home's
founding partners: Tele-Communications Inc., Comcast Corp. and Cox Communications
Inc. It extends @Home's access to more than 50 million households in North
America.
http://www.mediacentral.com/CableWorld
The razor is almost given away in order that you buy
expensive blades that only fit that razor. Windows is almost given away
so you and developers are tied to Microsoft. Microsoft then can package
more expansive software built on its own systems.
The next generation of desk tops will be input output
devices where much of the programming is provided by the network. High
bandwidth
connections will force a convergence between computers,
telecommunications,
and electronic media - desktops, telephones, and television.
The central
piece of equipment for the consumer will be the universal smart "modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )"
and video input/output device containing new powerful chips that can receive,
transmit and store graphic data at the speeds required by digital television.
The expensive networks are up-line from the consumer
- like they are in a television network or phone system.
The expensive
universal, global networks are being built by a combination of
Motorola,
WorldCom, Microsoft,
The News Corp, AT&T,
GTE, DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG ADS 1 ORD (DT) and a few other national phone
systems.
They involve high, middle and low satellites, earth stations and
broadband broadcasts.
These systems can connect by broadband
wireless
systems directly to "clients" by-passing existing telephone, cable
or broadcast systems or not.
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG ADS 1 ORD (DT)
This changes all the rules. Communications companies
can give away the "modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )" in order the get clients for long distance telephone,
video conferences, 500 channel global television, Internet and company
information systems and control the central programs at the "server" rather
than on the desk top.
The test beds are marine ships at sea, oil rigs,
global wireless phones for executives and CIA/NSA military applications.
NT 5.0 or Oracle, or Netscape, or others can provide "universal" servers
to manage the individual accounts of millions of "clients".
There will
be only a few major servers.
The companies that own the networks could
make the razors and can produce their own blades. Clients will have only
few choices. Once you sign up with a server you get what that server provides
-
With 100 million effective customers, now, and fees
for complete packages of telephone, cable, Internet, plus new add on -
base fees of $50.00 = 5 billion a month and 10 X the users waiting, 500
billion is not out of sight as annual cash flow - plus charges for software
services, rentals, conferences and pay per view, - plus running your own
bank, travel service, content providers, we are now getting to the $ 1,000
billion range split between no more than five global communications companies.
In the short term: ( less than two years )
For
the late breaking news
Bay Networks' (BAY 37 11/16) LANcity LCP is currently
the leader among cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s. Unlike most, LANcity modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s have a symmetrical
architecture that transmits and receives at the same peak rate of 10 mbps.
Com21's ComPort uses ATM technology to transfer data
in discrete cells, or uniform packet sizes. This lets the ComPort transmit
mixed media and allocate
bandwidth
more easily.
The modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )'s expansion slot supports plug-in modules for telephony,
wireless
networking, and interactive game upgrades.
Hybrid Networks' CCM-201 is designed to fit into any
cable infrastructure. For cable systems that provide only one-way data
transmission, the CCM-201 can be built with an internal analog modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) for
upstream communications. For cable systems that support bi-directional
data transfer, the CCM-201 can be built-- or upgraded- -to deliver upstream
data rates of 512 kbps.
Designed for use with hybrid fiber-coax networks, Motorola's
( MOT 72 ) CyberSurfr uses the most common modulation scheme, 64QAM, for
downstream data transmission. For upstream transmission, Motorola chose
DQPSK, a more efficient digital modulation technique that's commonly used
with cellular telephone systems.
For the majority of cable systems, which allow only
one-way data transfer, NextLevel Systems NVL ( 16 5/16 )offers the Surfboard
SB1000, an internal ISA expansion card.
The Surfboard receives data over
the cable network and uses an integrated 28.8-kbps modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) for the upstream
path. NextLevel software initiates the PPP link over the telephone network
and sends requests back to the network servers at the cable plant.
Terayon's TeraPro external cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) uses a symmetrical
architecture, sending data upstream and downstream at the same 14-mbps
rate. Consequently, the TeraPro is a good fit for bi-directional applications,
such as videoconferencing and interactive gaming.
Zenith's ( ZE 9 1/2 ) HomeWorks Universal cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )
uses a symmetrical architecture to transmit data at speeds up to 4 mbps,
to and from the home computer.
The modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) uses BPSK (biphase shift keying)
for data transfer in both directions. Although BPSK is less susceptible
to noise than QPSK or 64QAM, it's also less efficient.
Wink Communications (
www.wink.com),
headquarters in Alameda, California with a subsidiary in Tokyo, was founded
in 1995 and is focused on adding interactivity to mass-market consumer
electronics. Compact software development is a core competency of the company.
Investors include General Instrument, Scientific-Atlanta, Toshiba, NTT
and Benchmark Capital.
ORCKIT COMMUNICATIONS LTD (ORCTF) Last Trade: 17 5/16
Orckit Communications (Nasdaq: ORCTF) announced today that in a recent
test of ADSL modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s, Orckit's modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s achieved the best performance among
seven xDSL vendors who participated in the testing.
Tele-Communications Inc. is traded through the TCI
Group and the Liberty Media Group common stocks. TCI Group is traded on
the Nasdaq National Market with Series A and Series B TCI Group Common
Stock, under the symbols of TCOMA and TCOMB, respectively.
Liberty Media Group is traded on the Nasdaq National Market with Series
A and Series B Common Stock, under the symbols of LBTYA and LBTYB, respectively.
Tele-Communications International Inc., which is traded under the symbol
TINTA, is attributed to the TCI Group. TCI Communication's Inc., the Company's
domestic communications subsidiary, trades its Cumulative Exchangeable
Preferred Stock, Series A on the Nasdaq National Market under the symbol
TCICP, its Trust Originated Preferred Securities ("TOPrSsm") on the New
York Stock Exchange under the symbol TFI/pr and its trust preferred securities
on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbols TFII and TFIV.
"Microprocessor and semiconductor
technology are advanced to the point where a set-top box can become a digital
set-top computer very soon," said Dr. Richard R. Green, president
and CEO of CableLabs in a recently published prepared statement.
This is where companies such as Intel come in. "Our
main expertise is in the area of microprocessors, and media issues such
as digital transmission," said the Intel spokesperson.
"We do believe that set-top boxes will require high-performance
microprocessors to provide the best service to customers.. it takes a good
deal of [computer] intelligence," he added. In a future cable-based set-top
box, both movie video and broadcast video may arrive in MPEG-2 format along
with Internet data. A processor will be required to handle all this data.
Intel said today that it has submitted a proposal to Cable Labs with the
aim of establishing "open" standards for set-top boxes and digital
TV.
The proposed set-top technologies would allow high speed Internet access
as well as digital video services on TVs.
Intel goes with Oracle on digital TV from CNET
At the receiving end of the NCI-Intel proposal is
Cable Labs, a research and development consortium.
Its members include many of the largest cable vendors, and it has established
a project called "OpenCable" aimed at creating "a new generation of set-top
boxes that are interoperable," according to a consortium statement. Members
include Adelphia, Time Warner Cable, and Comcast. (Microsoft recently purchased
a ten-percent interest in Comcast.)
Click
here
Word that POTs was dead came from the top. The
CEO of
USWest was quoted as saying
that
Plain Old Telephone Service
was
"dead
meat". Why? One suspect:
The Personal Communications Service. PCS promises
wireless-phones at low-cost. Your 2 cellular carriers will be joined by
3 PCS carriers. PCS is a cordless phone you can take to work. Instead of
cellular's high towers, expensive real estate and limited capacity, low-power
PCS transmitters can be pole-mounted and backboned with CATV amps. Long
distance operators
AT&T
Wireless,
MCI
PCS and
Sprint
PCS, along with
PCS PrimeCo
(owned by US West, Bell Atlantic, Nynex and Airtouch) have bet billions
on the demise of POTs.
The Phone Companies are not standing still:
The
$50 Billion Nynex/BellAtlantic deal is the biggest telecom merger in
history.
The
Super Bell will be
2nd biggest phone company (after AT&T) according to
CNN
stories and
press
releases.
B/Atlantic
has been a leader in video delivery with wireless cable innovations
like
CellularVision
.
The $20B
British Telecom/MCI deal makes MCI and British Telecom ready for extraterrestrial
expansion. With discovery of
Life on Mars and the
possibility of life outside the solar system, the combined forces of
MCI
and
British Telecom may expand the telecommunications
universe.
CNN
and
TechWire
have more.
Southwestern
Bell (SBC) and California-based
Pacific
Telesis did a
$16.7
Billion deal shortly after
The
Telecom Bill was signed. According to
Cable
World, the new SBC-PacTel entity will control
30
million US phones with potential wireless service to 80 million.
The
$14 Billion merger of
MFS
and Worldcom brings together local and long distance services and bundles
in
UUNet, one of the largest Internet
access providers.
The merger makes MFS Worldcom a "super carrier", competitive
with ATT, MCI and Sprint for global domination.
US West's $11
Billion purchase of
Continental Cable,
makes it the 3rd biggest MSO and
expands
US West territory to 26 million homes, reaching 1/3rd of the country.
US West paid some $2400 per sub for
mostly
1-way coax. In Europe,
TeleWest
along with Nynex Cable Comms pass some 2.8 million homes. Europe, particularly
the UK, leads the US both in
wireless
GSM phones and
telephony
on cable TV plant. Telewest's European
Cable
Internet service is on a growth curve.
There
is speculation that
TeleWest
may merge with Nynex for a united European offensive.
Domestically, Bell
Atlantic pulled out of their TCI merger due to high cost and alternative
delivery techniques, according to Ray Smith on the
Charlie
Rose show. If phone or cable rates get raised too high, consumers may
find alternatives. In Portland, for example, consumers may get POTs from
Electric Lightwave,
MCImetro,
MFS Intelenet
or perhaps
Teleport Com Group
(unrelated to my ISP). Other
Oregon
telephone companies and
US
Telecommunications companies may be competitors.
Rural
residents may not be so lucky and agreeing on a model
for
whom the bell tolls is tricky. RBOCs say POTs is subsidizing ISPs because
Internet users tie up the lines.
They
want to make ISPs pay.
Interactive
Week has a
summary
of backbone and last mile issues.
http://www.techweb.com/investor/feed/stockRes.cgi
See
SMARTMONEY
WAVO from
http://www.stocksite.com/
REPORT
on STOCK PICKS
OCT. PICKS are cable and ASDL modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s
Earlier in the month, Broadcom delivered the same cable
modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) system to its strategic partners, who include 3Com, Bay Networks,
Cisco Systems, NextLevel Systems (formerly General Instrument) and Scientific-Atlanta.
All of these companies have previously announced that they have adopted
Broadcom's silicon platform and will use it as the basis for achieving
multi-vendor interoperability.
Super
modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s for plain Jane phone lines
The launching of high speed ADSL (asymmetrical digital
subscriber line) technology marketing within a few months will revolutionize
the way businesses use the Internet, say promoters from GTE Northwest and
U S West.
SATELLITE
TV: "GROWTH DESPITE CONFUSION" ComputerWire Inc.
Judging by the SkyForum conference in New York earlier
this week, the satellite broadcasters are expending as much time and money
arguing amongst themselves as they are fighting their nemesis, the cable
industry, or attracting consumers to their DTH direct- to-home services.
EchoStarr Communications Corp,
USSB Inc.,
DirecTV Inc. and
Primestar Inc. do have genuine regulatory and
pricing concerns to do with their ability to re-broadcast local channels
and fees they must pay to transmit copyrighted material.
They are also
confronting a myriad of local zoning laws which regulate the attachment
of satellite dishes to the outside of buildings.
However the consumer must these days jump an increasingly
more complicated set of hurdles to get the kinds of services - on 400 channels
or more - not available from their cable provider (if they have one). Once
potential subscribers are confident they'll have access to the local channels
they are accustomed to - seven out of ten prospects decide not to get satellite
TV because they think they won't be able to receive local channels - they're
confronted with a confusing choice of
C-band, Ku-band, DBS Direct Broadcast Satellite,
DSS Digital Satellite System, digital TV, 24" dish, 18" dish, combined
dish and antenna products just to make sure they really really want the
service.
And at what cost?
The SBCA Satellite Broadcasting and
Communications Association which organizes SkyForum believes more channels
is the reason why subscribers are signing up for satellite services at
the rate of 4,000 to 5,000 per day while very a small minority give their
dishes back. And by the admission of SBCA president Chuck Hewitt, the industry's
prime target are the 25 million US homes that are not currently served
by the cable companies, homes that at the moment can only receive broadcast
network channels, not the 65 million cabled-up homes. Sounds like a license
to print money? So why is the satellite sign-up curve flattening out? "Growth
despite confusion," is Hewitt's observation.
Collective strengths Although DTH can claim to be digital
TV and high speed internet- ready, it's doing little to press home even
these advantages. It'll cost the cable industry an estimated $300 per subscriber
to upgrade set-tops to receive digital pictures.
There were no more than
a couple of sentences uttered about DTH's data delivery capability, such
as
DirecTV's DirecPC. (DirecPC's out at 30 beta
sites and is expected to be available sometime early next year on a limited
basis). EchoStarr chairman and CEO Charlie Ergen is the industry's most
outspoken advocate, urging the companies to capitalize on their collective
strengths:
digital TV-ready, clearer picture, massive choice of
programming.
For the record, EchoStarr is hoping Washington will
relieve the satellite companies from planned copyright constraints which
would mean they have to pay $0.27 per subscriber per month to transmit
copyrighted material, versus $0.09 per subscriber for the cable operators.
Primestar, owned by a bunch of cable concerns, and
viewed as a ringer, thinks a dish for satellite and an antenna for local
services is the way to go. USSB and DirecTV are hedging their bests. SBCA
estimates between 4,000 and 5,000 new satellite subscribers are being added
each day in the US, a rate expected to rise to 7,000 per day in the fall.
It hopes there will be over 8 million subscribers by the end of the year.
At the end of August subscribers to the older C-Band services totaled 2.16
million, down from 2.3 million a year ago. DirecTV's subscription base
is up from 1.78 million to 2.8 million over the same period. Primestar
(currently absorbing, pending Federal approval,
News Crop's US-based ASkyB assets), up from
1.4 million to 1.8 million and EchoStarr from 0.1 million to 0.7 million.
The total stands at 7.47 million and counting, though more slowly already.
August Picks were Satellite companies ( and did very
well )
SEPT. so far stay with the winners and the Zacks ranking
the LOWER the score the more Wall Street firms recommend a BUY the higher
score = sell - I don't think much of these recommendations but they do
IMPACT the market - under 1.7 is GOOD over 2.5 is BAD...there is grade
inflation - wall street firms are very show to say anything bad about their
product ( stocks) and firms that maybe customers.
Ciena CIEN 58.94 2.38 4.2% 59.50 57.88 44956
Summa Four SUMA 13.38 0.50 3.9% 13.50 13.00 1091
Ascend ASND 33.63 1.19 3.7% 34.00 32.44 108740
DSC Communications DIGI 30.63 1.00 3.4% 31.63 30.44 46493
Premisys PRMS 29.63 0.63 2.2% 30.13 28.25 16035
Digi International DGII 16.00 0.00 0.0% 16.25 15.75 686
Lucent LU 88.00 0.00 0.0% 89.81 87.00 23771
Northern Telecom NT 107.50 -0.56 -0.5% 110.63 106.69 2749
Teledata TLDCF 42.25 -0.25 -0.6% 43.00 42.13 1415
Network Equipment Technologies NWK 19.06 -0.13 -0.7% 19.19 18.13 4676
Motorola MOT 69.88 -0.63 -0.9% 71.13 69.00 25641
Symbol Qty Purchase Price Current Price Net Chg Value
Gain/Loss Pct Gain Edit/ Delete
TCOMA 500 23.375 23 3/8 0.0 $11,750.00 0.00 0.0
TCOMB 500 22.875 23 0.0 $11,500.00 0.00 0.0
LBTYA 500 33.00 33 0.0 $16,500.00
TSCP 2000 12.5 12 1/2 0.0 $26,250.00
TSCPW 1000 4.5 4 1/2 0.0 $5,000.00
ARTT 1000 10.375 10 3/8 0.0 $10,500.00
DGII 1000 14.875 14 7/8 0.0 $14,875.00
HKT 1000 18.312 18 5/16 0.0 $18,312.50
TOTAL: $114,687.50 $0.50
News powered by News Alert Inc. Delayed quotes powered
by PC Quote Inc. All stock quotes are 20 minute delayed and are believed
accurate
CON'S on
NOTES AND COMMENTS
BACK to top
TO STOCKS
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch