Surplus Product:
The fault in free market
capitalism is the historic issue of over production. The motivation of
capitalism is to gain a higher return on investment (ROI) than the going rate
of return. A functional capital market
will increase investment in sectors that are “hot” until it is over
done. Since there is a delay between decisions and the ROI people invest today
on the expectation of returns tomorrow. Using historical data is always
misleading and can not be true a discount of current value vs. future ROI.
There will be more houses, cars, structured investment instruments, etc. than
the market can absorb as supply out run effective demand.
The modern discount system escalate the boom
and bust effects. A million dollars in mortgages is turned into certificates
that generate additional money to fund more home loans that then are used as
assets to borrow more money until one dollar becomes ten. When the million
dollars in bonds have to be repaid or lose their market value it takes ten
million dollars out of the pool so the virtuous cycle becomes a malevolence
cycle. It is similar danger as buying on
margin.
The monetary policy is to
drop interest rates to make ROI easier.
The government pump primes by borrowing money and spending it. The scale
has to be right – too little too late will not work. As in taking
antibiotics you need to get a big dose and finish the course of treatment or
the disease will return in a more virulent form. The political system has to be able to act and
decisively or it won’t work. Peter Druker’s theory was that war was
the only way democracies could dispose of the surplus property by shooting it
at foreign enemies. Workers are paid to produce the good of war but nothing
enters the civil supply chain. Democracies
have a hard time collecting taxes and run surpluses when the economy over heats
because human desires are endless and politicians get elected by buying voters
with public programs.
A real reserve fund is the
solution – save during the seven good years so you have resources in the
rainy day.
The central issue from the
17th century forward, is the shift from
the rule of established authorities by a established land owning ruling class
of king and church to a capitalist and republican form of government. The
empirical issue is the nature of mass publics. In “Reflections on the revolution in
The issue over the last few
centuries and today and in the campaign for democracy today is the problem of
the unlikely trust placed in ordinary people – are they a mass of
unconscious desires and hidden motivation aroused by the market managers,
elitists and the media or are they sovereign individuals endowed by their
creator with reason and citizen with rights.
Is it Rush or
This years selection of
President have this in the background – can people, the great unwashed,
the masses take charge of their own affairs – can there be a government
of the people, for the people and by the people or is this a fairy tale –
and grand illusion?
According to General
Semantics, cognitive sciences, it’s the frame STUPID! The frame is the network of associations that
spring from the sub-conscientious with the brand.
Obama has a brand of hope and
change – a people lost in the wilderness about to cross to the holy
land. The collection of tribes of all the people lost in the dessert
looking across to the promised land of milk and honey. The leader is a guide
and prophet, a coach getting the team into the supper bowl.
The Republican image of the
strict father offer security and freedom from reason. The people is to follow
and believe and not question authority. Ditto Heads…
Democracy in
There are some popular myths
about the nature of the American civilization.
The nation was a child of enlighten not a Christian revival. The Deists
and Freemasons who organized the “committees of public safety” and
created the propaganda that let to the “rebellion of the American
Colonies” and was all about CHANGE. The established order of CHURCH,
KING, and State was gothic v. the modern world which was rational, logical as
opposed to faith based doctrine based on tradition and authority. The idea that
people could manage their own affairs depended on people being sensible, not
driven by superstitions, and passions. The people must have a higher sense of
the common good and see beyond just personal, regional, racial, ethic, class or
religious prejudices. The “people” were property owners and
educated. The masses were not to be trusted.
Without the balance of power, public education, and a stable middle
class Imperial tyranny would be replaced by the rule of the mob.
If Mr. Edwards wants to
change “the system” he will have to convince the states to call a
constitutional convention to redesign the balance of power. The system we have has been successful
designed to prevent Democracy because popular rule would endanger civil
liberties and state sovereignty
– Democracy only requires majority rule within a parliamentary
system. The American design was to
prevent the state from doing much, for better or worse. The balance of power design was there because
the founding fathers did not trust the people or majorities that would abolish
slavery, over tax or regulate, tax trade to the disadvantage of one region or
industry or another. Our limited democracy
is another result of our original sin of slavery.
USE GO
wiredbrain pflaump
which are not limited in content therefore is nonlinear and not
fixed in time or space.
-
Click on
Synergy Logo for default.htm our current working page - today's
comments on the synergy Journal
www.multicrawl.com for synergy site: use wiredbrain and
"any topic"
Example: Wonders of the Mind. GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
http://www.spaceports.com/~sparkg/wavs/pinky/battle.wav
http://www.spaceports.com/~sparkg/
http://www.zdnet.com/ferret/images/ferret3.gif
Ferret finds 1500 Wiredbrain "pflaump" web pages
COPERNIC searches all the main engines very quickly
Make PORTALS your home page and
use "wiredbrain" password "synergy" for set-up start pages.
Alltheweb does as it claims to be fast and large
Most search engines now find
about 30 % of the 350 million pages. So you need to check many engines. 
What science
knows
MSN
now does the best search
OUR Social ergonomics
http://www.wiredbrain.net/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.net/nano.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.net/symbian.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.net/broadband.htm
High
Speed Internet by Soliton
Individual development, organizational change, and In the
computer industry, power comes not from the barrel of a gun but from the
interface of a protocol.
We're
moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the next
decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of the
world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim. The theme
of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global
connections between utility network computers.
Key word "infrastructure" http://www.wiredbrain.net/information.htm
how about quantum computing
? http://www.foresight.org/
Borders, periphery, frontiers:
All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the
super market of the world
What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart,
& some Computer terminal company and cable modem or broadband connection )
mean for the future of global society ? What is the image they pursue ? http://www.wiredbrain.net/image.htm
Futures, forecasts, and fantasy :
re: ORCL, HP team with Utilities in
Consortium to Fiber the Last Mile
http://www.infoworld.com/articles/hn/xml/00/01/24/000124hnutility.xml
"...taking advantage of the deregulated
telecom industry, the small, tightly knit consortium will initially offer
digital voice, TV, and Web hosting over fiber, under the name SpectraDyne
Services. It includes Sierra Pacific Power Company, Hewlett-Packard, Oracle,
and TelecommUnity Systems."
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=29127
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FBCE+FIBR+JDSU+MRVC+OPTC+OPTX+ORTL+POCI+SCMR&d=t
The following image need to be firmly in
mind to understand the AOL/ Time Warner deal - and the frenzy going on in
telecommunications and computer industries. The time frame is about 10 years -
the impact comes first in Northern Europe - Singapore - parts of the states -
parts of Hong Kong and China - Japan - Taiwan - South East Asia - Australia (
already with system under construction )
http://www.wiredbrain.net/nano.htm
There is optic to the door provided by the
utility company. It is a common carrier providing:
TV programs on demand on a big flat
screen digital high definition system - programs are recorded and played as you
desire, when you desire on any of the screens around the wired house you
desire. There is no need for program schedules - movies and other video content
are downloaded on demand from world wide services. Some charge fees some are
free with or without ads. You can watch the BBC news or CNN or C-span type
programs any time. There is no need for movie or music channels since you can
order anything you want anytime.
The same with music, either rented for a
limited number of replays, or purchased and transferred to CD or DVD - The same
with interactive media - games and educational services for the wired "
smart" house - When you leave the security system goes on - with complete
radar monitoring of any motion with recording of motion, the heat or AC is
turned down, when you click from your cell phone that you are returning home -
the lights and heat or AC is reset, the music turned on and the doors
unsecured.
The cell phone - palm pilot - personal
digital assistant works at 400 kbs to 1 Mbs with GPS, e-mail and other web
content, fold up or screen keyboards, long life batteries, high gain reception
of dense multiplex time division wideband GS3 codes.
The home terminal - NEXUM - provides wireless
( bluetooth ) connection to the mobile elements, TV, music, games, information
systems with voice commands. You say " Write a note" and dictate as
it appears on the big screen. You correct with the portable keyboard that is
used for interactive TV. The master computer works within a network
"master server in the sky" to provide services you need or enjoy.
Shopping, banking, tele-communities, video conferences, design and research,
games and social activities, travel and adventure, and tuned to your interests
and desires. The master server bills for usage in micro pennies for
"extras" but charges a flat fee for "basic services".
Several master server companies compete for services on the common carrier -
The services are not tied to the wire -
optic cable - so there are two bills - one for connection services - the
wireless and wired ( optic ) and another from the service company that passes
along charges for rentals, fee for service charges, software licenses,
communications on and off net, as we do today with local and long distance
phone services and premium cable services.
Where is the money made ? Optic fiber
hardware - mobile hardware, utility company right-of-way and network services,
the "general utility service company" maybe AOL, Microsoft, NOISE group
( Netscape, Oracle, IBM, Sun Microsystems and everyone else ) Amazon, or others
which provides the interface between the user and service providers - banks,
insurance, finance and markets, shopping, software and music and games and
movies and communications, and entertainment, security, smart home management,
and on and on... The super on-line service using optic fiber to the door.
http://www.wiredbrain.net/nexum.htm
CONVERGENCE: Interactive television,
combining audio telephone, video conference and cable or satellite TV, video on
demand, all designed to advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and
services.
What is called "entertainment" on
television is different from plays, or movies or theme parks or games or sports
because the role of "content" is only to attract an audience so they
can be sold something. The job of television is sales - not news or information
or entertainment which are only provided so people watch and can be sold
something. The role of AOL / Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods
but direct sales. Their dream is the click and buy advantages of two way
communications.
In the process cable or other broadband can
replace a good share of long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private
networks, if and only if, the broadband connections really works then personal
computers become network devices or http://www.wiredbrain.net/NEXUM.htm
a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.
http://www.wiredbrain.net/nano.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.net/symbian.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.net/broadband.htm
High Speed Internet by
Soliton
AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the
method for the broadband connections they will control the content. The contact
rates - for cable, telephone, Internet and video on demand provide cash flows
that support the capital for improved networks and on-line sales provide the
profits.
It's not only that you can buy your tooth
paste from the commercial ( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but
you might get free samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to
your grocery list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or
brokers, buy records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy
gifts, use auctions, even pick appliances and cars. They will seek better
mortgage and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products
and services.
http://www.wiredbrain.net/disintermediation.htm
Disintermediation means becoming the middle
person between the buyer and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means
direct sales take on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart
connection if not merger.
AOL can do what Sears did. The Sears brands
were produced by OEM ( original equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a
very tight control of quality and margins. Many of their providers became
dependents. B2B means the intermediary can arrange shipments from the provider
to the buyer and become the super market of the world.
Life and cognizance exists on the edge of
quantum and classical physics. The very small ( nano ) works by most
extraordinary rules - objects have properties that allow them to move from here
to there without going through the intermediate space. Time is not linear and
space bends. Objects themselves appear, take on properties, and then change
their character and reappears in a different form.
At the atomic and molecular level the
connections can be open and creative rather than mechanical and determined.
Uncertainty is a fundamental prerequisite of creativity and life itself.
A really clever computer working with
uncertainly could work at this level and have some sort of consciousness. This
would be an interesting invention of this century.
http://www.foresight.org/cgi-bin/aglimpse?query=quantum&relpath=&errors=0&age=&maxfiles=50&maxlines=30
quantum dots (or single-electron
transistors), quantum wells, quantum wires, spin transistors or arrays of all
these devices.
low power quantum electronics, and high
bandwidth photonics are of special interest, as are the demonstrations of space
subsystems based on these technologies. http://www.aero.org/conferences/micro-nano/
Candidate technologies receiving attention
include various quantum functional devices, quantum computing, DNA computing,
and molecular electronics explained for molecular diode switches, molecular
transistors, and molecular logic gates.
This talk would provide an overview on one such
candidate technology based on carbon and other nanotubes.
the novel Quantum Cascade Laser (QCL), which
differs in design from traditional laser diodes.
This treatment burned out the protein shell
and yielded two dimensional arrays of inorganic iron oxide dots on the Si
wafer. The size and repeat distance of the dots were 6 and 12 nm, respectively,
as measure by FE-SEM and AFM. As the diameter of the iron oxide dots is only 6
nm, this two imensional array of inorganic iron oxide dots has a potential to be
used as quantum dots. Feasibility study of the application of this dot array to
the structure of semiconductor memory is now in progress.
The NEXUM project:
http://www.wiredbrain.net/nexum.htm
A clear image:
The Stock Market Game
The
new tech search
on hot companies
for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch
Technological search:
nano computers quantum optical network
switching electronics high bandwidth photonics diode switches molecular
transistors molecular logic gates Quantum Cascade Laser
http://www.wiredbrain.net/nano.htm
A short introduction to quantum computation
Max PLANCK and Heisenberg, and Erwin
SCHRÖDINGER's wave mechanics, and Born, are the people of the 20th century who
will most influence the 21 st. We will see the application of quantum computer
fairly soon. It could ( so will ) have some level of self awareness we call
consciousness http://www.qubit.org/intros/comp/comp.html
Being in two places at the same time - or
going from here to there without passing through the space between. The nature
of matter at this level is little energy spots rather than matter as we
experience it, energy that change quantum states - transform from one state to
another instantly.
"The history of computer technology has
involved a sequence of changes from one type of physical realization to another
--- from gears to relays to valves to transistors to integrated circuits and so
on ...
On the atomic scale matter obeys the rules
of quantum mechanics, which are quite different from the classical rules that determine
the properties of conventional logic gates. So if computers are to become
smaller in the future, new, quantum technology must replace or supplement what
we have now. The point is, however, that quantum technology can offer much more
than cramming more and more bits to silicon and multiplying the clock-speed of
microprocessors. It can support entirely new kind of computation with
qualitatively new algorithms based on quantum principles!
suggestions: FIRST: The list of companies in
tele-communications
http://telecom.tbi.net/network1.htm
Since the Fallow’s article almost 10 years
ago http://www.wiredbrain.net/documents/logos/fallow01.txt and fallow.txt I
have a changing image of the communications in the age of technology. I have
believed the free market would produce was rational, logical, technologically
economic communications system which looked like this:
A receiver dish on your desk or outside on the
wall of your house and office broadcasts and receives digital signals from a
transmitters in the neighborhood ( up to 30 miles away - line of sight or maybe
not ). This single connection would provide really high speed broadband - gigs
per second - cable, telephone, Internet ( converged with TV and phone ). The
big business will be service providers doing all the hard stuff ( software ) up
line. You IP number would connect you to the world and the world to you where
ever on what ever. Your domain name would replace phone numbers, and all the
other ID problems with transactions in electric money as the device knows who
you are ( thumb print, retina read ).
If you wanted to write a letter - using
voice recognition from your cell phone to your NEXUM ( PC network device ) and
e-mail it or print it ( using Bluetooth ) or any financial, business, personal
transaction it would fly through the air from where-ever to where-ever.
The 100’s of millions of new connections in
China and the rest of the world without wires would use the same broadband
wireless system. The phone companies, cable companies, broadcast companies,
cell phones, and computer hardware and software would all be in the IT
communications business. It is happening - http://www.wiredbrain.net/NEXUM.htm
and http://www.wiredbrain.net/symbian.htm
The billion people on the Internet we talked
about a couple of years ago ( http://www.wiredbrain.net/packets.htm are almost
here. The Internet as the links to phones, it is here now. The TV Internet
connection is here @home and @work. What has not as been created is bandwidth
and the NC ( NEXUM ) but they are just over the horizon, looking More and more
like the playstation II and in the $ 350 range or comes with the $ 50 monthly
user fees including long distance, cable channels picked off Satellites,
Internet - Video user interface etc.
Sure people will use DSL ( fairly high speed
phone on copper ) people will use two way cable, some people and business will
use direct satellite or be on optic fiber, ( people still ride horses, use
wagons, sail boats, and walk but cars and planes have most of the transport
business ) BUT VOFDM, MMDS will replace most of these wired links by wireless, better,
freer more competitive services. I can’t track down the low power radar (MIR)
time division wideband line of sight transmitter and receivers but it is being
used by the military and seems to have no limits. Optic fiber switches are in
production to handle to backbone and local nodes.
The cost of communications content is dropping
faster than hardware - more that twice as much at half the cost every 18 months
by an order of magnitude ( 10 times more capacity for 1/10th as much cost ) (
Moore’s Law 10 X )
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Religion
and theology
[1] Though I speak with the tongues of men
and of angels, and have not love, I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling
cymbal.
Reminds me of the republican "Christian
cops" debate.
Religion is one area of human experience,
theology is another, Politics is one part of our lives, Ideology another, we
tend to get them confused. Religion is an experience, theology is an idea;
politics is about power, Ideology about beliefs.
We tend to get experience, feeling, passions
confused with ideas, theories, thoughts and positions. Gestalt is a
psychological practice that works to make the separation clear by the direct
experience of feeling. To understand the difference is very useful in getting
control of choices in life, government, education, health and science.
People and communities can’t work hard and progress
to a place they don’t understand and have never experienced. They never have
been on the mountain top and don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you
never experience a great school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a
great company if there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great
society without the image, the vision of greatness.
Politics is one thing, ideology is another.
Thoughts are about power. We use our minds
to get ahead, influence others, get a sense or feeling of control. But without
passion, desire, feeling there is a hollow or emptiness in pure knowledge. Pure
passion is wayward or dangerous and we feel the need to control or feeling with
reason. Thus an internal conflict between what we desire and what we do.
Theology is about power in the church as an
institution - Rome or Henry VIII - by social control of feelings and people and
institutions.
Ideology is about control of social power by
law and police and military force. The God police of the Christian activists
would control the bedrooms and doctors offices, The green Cops of the Mullahs,
Neighbor watch committees of China, The KGB, CIA, FBI or DEA.
Religion is an experience of the holy ghost.
You can have religious experience. You can know when someone is genuinely
spiritual or just using God talk to get ahead or change the power balance.
Commercial are expert in connecting feeling to product in order to create
actions - sell the product. Commercial give the illusion of ideas but are pure
feeling. Politics often does the same - the illusion of policy designed to
connect feeling - positive and negative to people and parties in order to sell
the product which is power, control, favors, winners and losers.
OUT of the box -
In order for people, institutions, and
societies to advance to the next level - ( Blue, Red, yellow, brown, white,
green, black and gold ) the difference between passion or feeling ( the colors
are different levels of spiritual awareness ) and ideas that gain power,
control, progress and win - they must directly experience the difference -
since otherwise it’s an ideas about feeling not feeling, or an idea about
religion not spiritual, or an idea about love not love, or an idea about health
not health, or an idea about a more perfect society not an experience of a more
perfect union.
People and communities can’t work hard and progress
to a place they don’t understand and have never experienced. They never have
been on the mountain top and don’t care. You can’t create a great school if you
never experience a great school - all is flat gray and dull. You can’t create a
great company if there is no occurrence of greatness, you can’t create a great
society without the image, the vision of greatness.
· 1Cor.13
· [1] Though I speak with the tongues of men
and of angels, and have not love, I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling
cymbal.
· [2] And though I have the gift of prophecy,
and understand all mysteries, and all knowledge; and though I have all faith,
so that I could remove mountains, and have not love, I am nothing.
· [3] And though I bestow all my goods to feed
the poor, and though I give my body to be burned, and have not love, it
profiteth me nothing.
· [4] Love suffereth long, and is kind; love
envieth not; love vaunteth not itself, is not puffed up,
· [5] Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh
not her own, is not easily provoked, thinketh no evil;
· [6] Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth
in the truth;
· [7] Beareth all things, believeth all things,
hopeth all things, endureth all things.
· [8] Love never faileth: but whether there be
prophecies, they shall fail; whether there be tongues, they shall cease;
whether there be knowledge, it shall vanish away.
· [9] For we know in part, and we prophesy in
part.
· [10] But when that which is perfect is come,
then that which is in part shall be done away.
· [11] When I was a child, I spake as a child, I
understood as a child, I thought as a child: but when I became a man, I put
away childish things.
· [12] For now we see through a glass, darkly;
but then face to face: now I know in part; but then shall I know even as also I
am known.
· [13] And now abideth faith, hope, love, these
three; but the greatest of these is love.
· 1Cor.8
· [1] Now as touching things offered unto
idols, we know that we all have knowledge. Knowledge puffeth up, but love
edifieth.
· [2] And if any man think that he knoweth
anything, he knoweth nothing yet as he ought to know.
· [3] But if any man love God, the same is
known of him.
· 1Cor.10
· [1] Moreover, brethren, I would not that ye
should be ignorant, how that all our fathers were under the cloud, and all
passed through the sea;
· [2] And were all baptized unto Moses in the
cloud and in the sea;
· [3] And did all eat the same spiritual meat;
· [4] And did all drink the same spiritual
drink: for they drank of that spiritual Rock that followed them: and that
· Rock was Christ.
· (12) [4] Now there are diversities of gifts,
but the same Spirit.
· [5] And there are differences of
administrations, but the same Lord.
· [6] And there are diversities of operations,
but it is the same God which worketh all in all.
· [7] But the manifestation of the Spirit is
given to every man to profit withal.
· [8] For to one is given by the Spirit the
word of wisdom; to another the word of knowledge by the same Spirit;
· [9] To another faith by the same Spirit; to
another the gifts of healing by the same Spirit;
We're moving toward a world of 1 billion
connected computers sometime in the next decade," Grove said, saying it
would represent some 20 percent of the world's population and a great
opportunity" for the Pacific Rim. The theme of "wiredbrain" is
that the "new world orders" are global connections between utility
network computers.
Trends:
The
mega-trends for the 21st century:
A
participation exercise; write pflaump@cfl.rr.com
Demographics:
The sickness industry expands in the industrial west as
the population continues to age, being un-healthy because of continuous
problems with nutrition, pollution, stress, life styles "out of the biological
grove" creating an expensive, bad tempered, older population in the former
imperial states ( in chronological order Spain, France, England, Germany,
United States, Japan and Russia) with increasing demands on limited resources.
A young connected population in the 4/5 th of the planet
not in the technological main stream become increasing more restless. The
center of global gravity, economic and political center sifts East from Madrid,
Paris, Frankfort, New York, San Francisco, Tokyo, Taiwan, Hong Kong, to South
Asia,
A global economy dependent on young, radical, semi-skilled
and poorly paid labor in Asia supporting a aging and politically reactionary
population in the Caucasians and advanced Asian nations creates tensions in the
international community of nations.
Technology:
A million fold increase in telecommunications, wireless,
optic fiber, and computer integration links producers, consumers, political and
intellectual regions across old national lines creating global economic and
political forces outside traditional institutions reshaping the concepts of
banking and investments, governments and corporations, churches and schools.
For Example: Dialpad.com is the world's
first free Java-based web-to-phone service. With Dialpad.com, you can make unlimited free
phone calls to anybody in the US as long as the other party has a valid phone
number. Dialpad.com works just like your own telephone. You can make phone
calls to any phone number in the US. Furthermore, you don't need to manually
download and install any software. You can make any call while your are
browsing the Internet and it is FREE!
weirdbrain ' (wîrd) adj., weird·er,
weird·est. Of, relating to, or suggestive of the preternatural or supernatural.
Of a strikingly odd or unusual character; strange. Archaic. Of or relating to
fate or the Fates. n.
Fate; destiny. One's assigned lot or
fortune, especially when evil. Often Weird. Greek Mythology. Roman Mythology.
One of the Fates. weird'ly adv. weird'ness n. SYNONYMS: weird, eerie, uncanny,
unearthly. These adjectives refer to what is of a mysteriously strange, usually
frightening nature. Weird may suggest the operation of supernatural influences,
but it may also be applied to what is merely odd or unusual: “The person of the
house gave a weird little laugh” (Charles Dickens). “There is a weird power in a
spoken word” (Joseph Conrad). Something eerie inspires inexplicable fear or uneasiness
that seems to result from a sinister influence: “At nightfall on the marshes,
the thing was eerie and fantastic to behold” (Robert Louis Stevenson). Uncanny
refers to what is unnatural and peculiarly unsettling: “The queer stumps . . .
had uncanny shapes, as of monstrous creatures, whose eyes seemed to peer out at
you” (John Galsworthy). Something unearthly seems so strange and unnatural as
to come from or belong to another world: “He could hear the unearthly scream of
some curlew piercing the din” (Henry Kingsley).
http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc/index.html
Does the term "Network Computer" sound familiar...?
* Another Broadband Alternative -- More
acronyms: LMDS and MMDS. These are technologies for deploying high speed
Internet access using broadcast radio waves -- think of it as wireless cable or
wireless DSL. A few areas, such as New York City and Silicon Valley, already
have some limited implementations. But according to the Oct. 26 New York Times
(http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/yr/mo/biztech/ http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/yr/mo/biztech/
articles/26internet-wireless.html), a new
big-name consortium led by Cisco plans to give cable and DSL companies a run
for their broadband money -- and they point out that their terrestrial
radio-based MMDS (Multichannel Multipoint Distribution Service) solution
doesn't require digging up any streets or placing equipment in the
difficult-to-enter telephone company offices. (A tutorial on MMDS and related technologies
is at http://www.webproforum.com/wire_broad/topic10.html http://www.webproforum.com/wire_broad/topic10.html
).
Linux to attack
Windows
in both the client
and server arenas
To access the Caldera Systems Web site,
please bookmark http://www.calderasystems.com.
Caldera Systems, Inc. is a Canopy Group holding under the Ray Noorda/Canopy
Group Investment Company. Ray Noorda is the former CEO of Novell, Inc.
(NASDAQ:NOVL)
NOISE: and Linux
Netscape, ( now with AOL ) Oracle, IBM, Sun
microsystems and everyone else mainly Corel and Caldera Systems Web site,
please bookmark http://www.calderasystems.com. Caldera Systems, Inc. is a
Canopy Group holding under the Ray Noorda/Canopy Group Investment Company. Ray
Noorda is the former CEO of Novell, Inc. (NASDAQ:NOVL)
What did Bill Gates and Allen do that made
Microsoft such a great power and economic engine. They took UNIX and set it up
for the micro-computer, then quickly added features to appeal to developers.
When IBM used DOS in their PS they did so because there was software that people
could use. As you can’t sell radios without stations and you can’t have
stations without radios - you can't sell hardware without applications.
Then
once DOS was a "standard" and claimed open systems Microsoft quickly
added more and more attachments that developers could use to save time. Common
packages for user made new applications easier. They spent a great deal of time
and effort recruiting and training and supporting 100’s of thousands of
developers and system managers. Soon MS became to only game in town and then
the evil empire attacked by replacing the programs ( or buying them ) for the
most profitable applications - office suite. They almost wiped out WordPerfect,
Corel, Novell, Lotus and took over a big hunk of IBM’s market share.
This
is exactly what Linux ( being really open ) hopes to do. Since everyone else
H-P, IBM, Oracle SUN, have a real interest in being Windows free - why not.
Linux can run windows applications, will have a GUI ( graphic user interface ) and
be free in it’s basic form. You can but a CD which will partition your hard
drive and set up dual boot ( boot into windows or Linux ) and have programs
that will work on either system. If it stays open ( which it will ) it could be
a whole lot better in a years or two than windows. Windows has gotten hopeless
blotted, patched, and over complex so it CRASHES. Since Linux is open to
improvements from the community it should be better.
http://www.zdnet.com/pcweek/stories/news/0,4153,1015550,00.html
PAD
personal access device news search
in products
ranging from Windows terminals to portable PADs (personal access devices).
Three
kinds of PADs will emerge, Polacek said: a CRT-based PAD, similar to Apple
Computer Inc.'s
iMac;
a kitchen PAD that is connected to a wall for e-mail and Web browsing; and a
portable PAD, with
wireless
communication.
"It's
a given that a huge part of the market, if not all of the market, is going to
move towards this subsidized
model,"
said Mike Polacek, vice president of National Semi's Internet Appliance Division
in Santa Clara, Calif.
"We're
going more and more in that direction."
AOL
is "working with National Semiconductor on an appliance device [ based on
Geode] for access," said
Polacek.
Lots
of partners
The AOL
device will likely be designed for sending e-mail and browsing the Web. It will
likely be distributed
at
little or no cost to customers who sign up for AOL's online service.
The best buys on the Internet The best Telephone rates loan
rates
Action at a distance
How
fast is it? A FastAccess-equipped phone line and computer enable speeds up
to 50 times faster than conventional (28.8 Kbps) modem ( or digital connection
to replace the analog )s (actual connection speeds may vary). FastAccess
Service allows information to travel at speeds up to 1.5 Mbps from the provider
to your computer (downstream), and up to 256 kbps from your computer to
the provider (upstream)*. The increased capability allows you to access large
amounts of data in significantly less time.
AT&T is
poised to offer digital television, telephone and high speed Internet
service to at least a quarter of the country. But until now, it had planned on
running fiber optic cables to clusters of 600 homes.
Packets The Salt Lake City test,
which will begin in two to three weeks, will run fiber to neighborhoods of 50
to 75 homes - increasing by tenfold the capacity of the system and making
connections clearer and more reliable.
Make PORTALS
your home page and use "wiredbrain" password "synergy" for
set-up start pages.
MSN now does the best search
Use the Codes to Wiredbrain
Social ergonomics
The
History of the Future:
Japan can not solve most of its basic
economic problems.
Bank reform requires a fundamental shift
from combines of firms centered around banks and holding each others shares to
corporate capitalism within trading groups and well as between trading groups.
This requires a change from the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings
of modernization. The government is a committee of high level administrators
that work within the system and have very little control of the system.
There is no way to pay the costs of social
security and medicare for those currently in the labor force.
The shift from income and payroll taxes to
VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help, the nationalization of education and
medicine could help. What would make a real difference is politically unlikely,
what is politically possible is unlikely to do any good. The American political
system can not take fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to
respond to important changes in the society.
Alan Greenspan, in his recent testimony to
congress, repeated a lesson in basic economics. The economy welfare of any
nation depends on three factors:
The skill and educational character of the
labor force,
The capital stock the company and the
society provides to make work productive
The ratio of fixed to variable costs of
social overhead.
In a fully developed industrial society the
costs of social security and health care are transferred to workers and the
overhead of everything produced. As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column
the social overhead costs become very high. The relative costs of work shifts
to less developed, labor rich areas.
The long term investment in human and
physical capital is the reason for increases in productivity - better trained
people working smarter with better tools are the reasons for wealth or poverty.
At the same time the cost of payroll taxes alone becomes higher than world wide
base hourly wages.
How much each person, each hour’s labor, how
much each unit of input produces in goods and services is directly related to
the income from work and the return on investment. The machine that digs
increases digging productivity and the wages of people with hand shovels or
power equipment, airplanes increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon
drivers or pilots, the word processor increases writing productivity, the
Internet increases communication productivity. The cost per unit of computer power
declines by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the
economy’s efficiency.
The current period of growth with low
inflation, where the labor force has growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year
( 3 % ) has been possible because of better trained women’s wide participation,
more women are now in college than males and minority workers acting as a
reserve along with moving jobs to lower costs areas of production and
immigration.
The larger labor force has new and improved
tools provided by the "information" revolution. Productivity in some
areas of high technology have been very impressive. As we become more global,
the labor force becomes global. Low skilled occupations move to low wage areas
- China being the great labor pool.
Networks of product design, original
equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and marketing become more complex and
integrated.
Three central concepts:
Punctuated Equilibrium In Action!
Complex system are slow when adapting to
changing environments and subject to periods of rapid degeneration and
extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct connection on complex networks. The
number of connections increases exponentially on a global basis. Almost
everything connects to almost everything else. What you see is that the most
outstanding feature of life's history is a constant domination by bacteria.
Very complex systems decrease rapidly in times of environmental instability and
sudden change.
The Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
The future of established institution to
control economic, social and political events is very limited. The Political
process everywhere, national and international, can not keep pace with the
rapid, changing, complex, counter-intuitive, non-ideological, global policy
problems and issues. Among these issues are global warming, international
finance, trade, ethnic and class conflict, population, education, health,
welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The demographics of the industrial world
project a rapid decline in the proportion of people in the labor force. The
large differences between rich and poor countries is becoming complex with
higher income pockets dispersed around the world. We need to focus on global
growth rates and interdependencies and how they play out in any market for
labor or products and services. A tight labor market for skilled computer labor
creates service centers in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While the average age in the developing
world is in the teens, the average ratio of workers to retired persons is
moving in the industrial world from 1:15 to 1:3 or even less as the average age
goes over 35. The average years of retirement have grown from less than 5 to
over 15. Required education and training keeps more young people from the labor
market - highly skilled occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher
education ( including specialties and internships ) so the productive years
start in their 30s. If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social
Security retirement is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or
20 years as consumers without production being supported by earning from saving
and/or income transfers.
There is no way to provide the wealth that
can support large numbers of retired from a fewer number of workers even with
better public policies, even with an historic increase in long term
productivity. Individuals and firms can do well with increased saving and
investment in even smarter systems and tools provided to a even more highly
skilled work force.
A highly developed economy such as Japan has
fewer way to maintain rapid growth. They are better educated, are very
competitive and clever, they are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of
fairness and stability, but face the same basic structural problems that faces
all developed nations. Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder
and harder to come by because all the clear options have already been used.
There is a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex
systems.
What has worked no longer is working very
well, what was successful is now fading and dying. The new success is in the
process of being born and growing up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For examples of complex systems hitting a
wall:
The U.S. constitutional system of divided
powers,
Japan Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old and new international combines,
the USS-was, from too much power to too
little authority.
The power elite everywhere are in denial,
they will soon become angry, in the slow realization of the death and dying of
the "old ways". The English crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut
it with new ways requiring new kinds of people and systems.
The nature of change only becomes real when
the effects are painfully apparent. It's extraordinary rare for people or their
institutions, to change behavior because it's necessary, rational or prudent.
Behavior changes, if at all, only under coercion and crisis. The American
political system, the Japanese economy - corporate administrative state -
called Japan Inc., the Soviet Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples
of where things have to get worse before they get better.
1997 - There is a financial crisis is South
East Asia - a currency and market crisis caused by "bubble economies"
and patterns of insider trading and special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998 - Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy
and China which is more than 1/2 of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural
problems augment by the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic
problem is the same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state
where the political process does not have control of the critical levers,
tillers and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of
corporations, banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change. The basic facts
of modern Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism
given more space to operate.
1998 second half - The world markets are
flooded with saving and low cost goods from Asia, speculation fed upon
speculation, pushing the world into a global bubble, boom and bust cycles. The
real economy declines, commodity prices decline, while asset prices increase. The
U.S. political system is unable to provide leadership or respond in any
rational way to a growing world crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is
distracted by meanness, pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils,
money and power without focus. The people who find they can not use the
democratic process to gain satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals
or drop out.
1999 - The beginning of a Global Depression,
counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe, extremism and nationalism in Japan, a
closing of the European Union into a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans,
spreading unrest in Mexico and Latin America.
The direction
of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns of
smaller, more temporary organizations. The percentage of the economy controlled
by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time firms stay on the
list, the number of new entries increases and on a global basis most are
non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as Finland, Israel,
Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international firms.
http://wmg.netcastnetwork.com/
Opening address:
George Gilder, President, Gilder Technology
Group, Inc.; Contributor, FORBES
ASAP
9:00 pm - 9:30 pm
Special address:
Steve Forbes, President & CEO, Forbes
Inc., Editor-in-Chief, FORBES Magazine
http://www.forbes.com/telecosm/
The four principles:
1.) The rule of law
2.) Sound currency
3.) Reasonable regulations and standards
4.) Rational taxes
The Information Economy:
1.) Rapid decline in the cost of hardware
and communications
2.) Rapid increase in usage
3.) Increased speed of applications of new
technical standards and symbols of integrity
4.) Rapid change in organizations
How do these tie together ?
1.) International law for global commerce
2.) Global currencies and banking - credit
systems
3.) Global communications standards
4.) International standards for taxes,
business regulation
The "new world order" requires
systems of international regulation of global commerce. A rule of law for
communications - rapid systems for deployment of new technologies and
reasonable conditions for enterprise.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF or
Fund) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD or
World Bank) were both established at the United Nations Monetary and Financial
Conference, held at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, on July 1-22, 1944. The two
were created to oversee stability in international monetary affairs and to
facilitate the expansion of world trade. Membership in the World Bank requires
membership in the IMF, and they are both specialized agencies of the United
Nations. The World Bank was given domain over long-term financing for nations
in need, while the IMF's mission was to monitor exchange rates, provide
short-term financing for balance of payments adjustments, provide a forum for
discussion about international monetary concerns, and give technical assistance
to member countries. These functions are still generally true of both
organizations, although the policies determining how they are carried out have
been modified and amplified over time.
The Fund's legal authority is based on an
international treaty called the Articles of Agreement (Articles or the
Agreement) which came into force in December 1945. The first Article in the
Agreement outlines the purposes of the Fund and, although the Articles have
been amended three times in the course of the last 47 years prior to 1998, the
first Article has never been altered.
http://www.cftech.com/BrainBank/FINANCE/IMFHistory.html
There needs to be a new expansion and
agreement including standards of Free Trade The WTO is the only international
body dealing with the rules of trade between nations. At its heart are the WTO
agreements, the legal ground-rules for international commerce and for trade
policy. The agreements have three main objectives: to help trade flow as freely
as possible, to achieve further liberalization gradually through negotiation,
and to set up an impartial means of settling disputes.
http://www.wto.org/
Like the human brain, the internet's packets system can reconfigure itself to work
even after portions were destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the
time, it was impossible to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that
all the traffic would have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would
have to be broken into short message blocks now called packets," each
containing its own routing information, like a DNA
molecule, and able to replicate itself correctly whenever a transmission
error occurred. With many additions and permutations, his original design is
today termed the Internet, click here for the emerging history of the 21st century.
OFF THE WALL: Projections and forecasts:
1.) President Clinton will resign ( because
he has "had-it") to become a University President sometime between
the congressional elections in Nov. 1998 and the opening of congress in January
1999.
This establishes a new Constitution system
of a six year Presidents with the next president having years of
"on-the-job" training. It also allows for a selection process other
than the crazy primary process. The new Vice-president will be black, female or
both. The republicans will run Governor Thomson of Wisconsin with a female VP.
They may win because
2.) A banking crisis in China - a run on the
banks because of the problems with state run firms and the PLA industrial
complex -
China's People's Liberation Army is business
dynamite that can explode !
The People's Liberation
Army (PLA) of China has evolved
into the mainland's biggest conglomerate
over the past
10 years and is spreading overseas
causes a real crash before the Elections of
1999. A successful coup in Russia, and a small war in the Middle East..
3.) So much for peace and prosperity …. sowelcometothe21stcentury
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An image of the future :
Lugar Plan
To Replace the Income Tax With A National Sales Tax
Since
other countries use the VAT, exports are taxed less ( exports don't pay VAT )
and imports are TAXED more, this can make a 20% difference. The cost of social
overhead ( health, education, welfare, infrastructure ) is partly transfered
from exports to imports. Also DO AWAY WITH THE IRS !
Low
Orbit satellites beam down to earth
See Packets.htm futures of technology:
A few
major ideas:
Letters from the Future:
The
only way you do better than the average is having information beyond the
average.
The
core of communications is the base of the next
revolution. Satellites connected to earth stations with
super broadband wireless and cable connecting to "smart universal modem ( or
digital connection to replace the analog )s" for network computers and
universal communications utilities including TV.
ZDNET
The
way the core of the computer - telecommunications market is going is at the Watch the keynote by MCI WorldCom’s
John
Sidgmore.
but
not clear to most reporters and observers. This is one way to visualize what is
happening.
There
are a new products call Web-TV, the network computer, advanced note books with
cell phone built in, and important advances in satellite communications,
Wideband / Broadband, cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog
)s and copper wire telephone services.
Imagine
you have a black box which provides universal communications services: video
telephone, Internet, fax, e-mail, cable TV, regular digital TV, CD music and
games, had digital storage in Zig-a-bites, and wireless modem ( or digital
connection to replace the analog ) in 10 Meg-bits per second or better. The
question is who is the Service Provider ?
Imagine
companies, schools, homes where instead of millions of PC the same black box
provides all the applications, data banks, on-site and computer home workers at
their work stations. The applications programs are downloaded with the data. A
10 Mb program takes 1 seconds to down load the functions being used at that
moment. The program "runs" on the CPU of the black box, not time
share terminal, but is fully integrated with the wide area network and the
Internet. Who provides the software, systems management, data storage, and
where is the server ? Watch the keynote by
MCI WorldCom’s
John
Sidgmore.
/monday.html">Bill
Gates keynote at Watch the keynote
by MCI WorldCom’s
John
Sidgmore.
presentation
of NT 5 + uses a NC ( Network Computer ) he po-poed last year. The next step is
from LAN ( local networks ) to the internet. He talks PC but programs NC for
all the reasons as a low cost "utility" device promoted by Larry
Ellison of Oracle said last year.
It could
be the satellite companies who own the high ground and the critical link in the
whole system. There is the fight between Alcatel Alsthom 1/8ALSF.CN 3/8's
Skybridge and Motorola's Celestri to get bands to develop and compete against
Microsoft's Teledesic, which is backed by Boeing (BA.N). These become the first
global telephone ( tele-communications ) company with direct services to
companies, and local service providers. MCI-World Com -BT- ATT - DT -Sprint
have to get into the Satellite Internet business FAST or be replaced. They are
behind using analog rather than digital systems they should have made universal
20 years ago.
I don’t
see much future for WIRE including cable after 2000, and the growth markets are
in China, The USS -was, Eastern Europe, Latin America, which add up to double
the number of users and four times the amount traffic every 18 months at half
the cost per unit. "For technology,
analysts said the trend within Asia could move towards the personal computer as
a cheaper, commonly available product.
"Malaysia,
Singapore and Hong Kong will probably lead the way as far as futuristic
technology into the next millennium, but I wouldn't count out very strong IT
investments in China," said Brian Kornegay, a senior personal computer
analyst at IDC. "
The
GREAT industrial companies of the next century will be tele-communications with
a vast variety of "services", financial, travel, marketing of goods,
retail sales, educational, all global all around us. This is the issue Nadar and the NOISE
group are all about.
In
all, the three plan to launch several hundred satellites in 2001 and 2002. The three
projects, which would offer high-speed multi- media services via huge
networks of satellites, require access to a large amount of radio frequency
spectrum. These connections make possible the Network Computer
the next generation of "smart" terminals that act as telephones,
e-mail, PCs, business shops and services.
User
wiredbrain password synergy
http://www.techweb.com/investor/feed/stockRes.cgi
dailystocks most excellent information
The report
illustrates just how dominant the computer sector of the economy has become as
technology has become increasingly advanced. .. For example, the study found
that the average wages of those who provide high-tech services are, in
Kazmierczak's words, "phenomenal," with high-tech employees earning
73 percent more, on average, than private-sector employees. Providers of
software services in particular, he said, are finding current economic trends
to be extremely favorable
Ericsson Hosting
Internet & Wideband Wireless Conference
Two-Day
San Francisco Event Includes Internet Partners Discussing Convergence
Strategies Third-Generation Wideband Wireless Multimedia mobile systems. This
technology, to debut in some world regions in the year 2000, will enable
wireless phones/terminals to deliver not only voice, but also full-motion
video, and data-intensive information such as real-time Internet access.
Once
More From the TOP:
It's
about time ! The main line press has caught-on to the power of the internet ?
What wiredbrain and others ( mainly Netscape, Oracle, ( considered to be a
source of wise counsel or prophetic opinions. b. An authoritative or wise
statement or prediction ) IBM, SunMicrosystems and the NOISE group ) have been
talking about since Netscape 1.0 and WINS connections - the virtual office and
the Network Computer has now arrived in the PC world.
"The
new concept ( only to you ) goes by a variety of names: instant Web
office; virtual office; instant intranet; Web tone; Internet dial tone; and so
on. The idea is to provide everything a user needs on a central server. Users
can then access that server over the Internet with just a terminal and a phone
line. Then they "rent" Internet and intranet applications for as
little as $10 to $20 per person per month. (That's a fraction of the per-user
cost of an in-house intranet.)"
and
a box that cost 10 % of a PC work station ( $500 vs. $5,000 ) and doesn't
crash, doesn't need systems managers, and doesn't require constant upgrades but
does need bandwidth.
MONDAY,
OCTOBER 27, 1997
Instant Intranets Just Stage One in Emerging Market Struggle
Jesse
Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk
What
is clear but not said is this is the end of the Age of the PC. First the main
frame, then the PC now the NC -
There
is now a immense industry we can call IT “INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY”.
IT now
represents the critical modern enterprise growing to be a quarter of all
economic activity.
IT is a greater engine for growth than railroads in the
19th century, oil and chemical industries in the first half of this century. IT
is equal to the auto industry, which reached 25 % in the 1950s. “IT” like the
auto industry includes the hardware ( the computer or car), the infrastructure,
(communications and networks or the roads) the energy ( software or oil ) the
services, ( consultants and staff or Gas Stations ) and parts ( modem ( or
digital connection to replace the analog )s, drives, or car radios ). IT
includes the computers ( the car ), the roads ( the telecom business ),
services ( software ) and the social educational infrastructure.
IT
provides the web of life for modern
enterprise - design, production, distribution, sales, of goods and services. IT
is the growth industry and in labor market. There are millions of new jobs and
additional people needed world wide.
Unlike
the auto industry the IT business evolves quickly. New hardware computers and
chips, new methods of communications, new applications evolve quickly. IT is
quickly becoming one unified, highly complex living system on a global basis.
The whole is more than the sum of the parts - synergy that comes from elaborate
interactions.
there
are critical “flash point” - global telcom systems based on satellites connect
to earth stations that can use telephone lines including new high bandwidth
technologies, optic fiber, wireless broadband, and cable connections. The high
bandwidth connections use improved modem ( or digital connection to replace the
analog )s to provide support for networks. These new networks provide what have
been called telephones, television, personal computers, and something new -
beyond what now are common utilities.
The common
base system is the “browser”, which will provide all of the application in a
Java type objects - in a Video User Interface (VUI) using chips that can handle
digital TV and Digital Hard Drives for storage all as parts of the new super
modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s.
IT is
why the DOJ Microsoft case is important. What was called the “operation system”
OS now becomes VUI, an interface between a “terminal” ( telephone, TV, and PC =
NC ) and a communications media. The interface uses program “packets” as well as
content “packets” the operational software is contained within the data.
The difference between program and content no longer is significant. With bandwidth
the “word processor” is attached to the files and comes as an instant updated
package at the moment of use. This is Netscape’s, Oracle and others “vision”
and the real challenge to Microsoft.
Ericsson Hosting
Internet & Wideband Wireless Conference
Two-Day
San Francisco Event Includes Internet Partners Discussing Convergence
Strategies Third-Generation Wideband Wireless Multimedia mobile systems. This
technology, to debut in some world regions in the year 2000, will enable
wireless phones/terminals to deliver not only voice, but also full-motion
video, and data-intensive information such as real-time Internet access.
NEW
YORK, Nov. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Ericsson today announced that it will hold a Convergence
Conference Nov. 11-12, 1997, at the Clift Hotel in San Francisco. Addressing
Ericsson's Internet initiatives and strategies, and its technology for Third-Generation
digital Wideband Wireless Multimedia systems, the conference features
executives from Ericsson and leading computer and Internet companies. Berst
Alert FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 1997 Bandwidth Progress
Report
UP-GRADES:
Horse race or dog and pony show ?
New
and Improved ? Thoughts on the Explorer Upgrade
In
Europe it has been traditionally difficult to sell NEW type autos. People say they
don’t want to buy a car, which they keep for an average of seven years, until
the bugs have been worked out and has built a reputation for reliability. GM,
IBM, and other big corporations often do not have the best product or price but
the power of marketing, distribution, service, and habit. They depend on people’s
unwillingness to be pioneers. Those on the frontier get shot with arrows. Now
billions of dollars, huge personal fortunes, the rise and fall of great
enterprises depend on complex technologies few understand. Technology has
become a horse race, the fastest win rather than a dog or pony show where the
judges reflect conventional values, where a horse of a different color is unlikely
to win. In the now systems of knowledge, a 14 year old New Zealand boy’s
solution to the millennium bug is just as much in the race as the show horses
from the most established stables.
List SMART COMPANIES of companies the who's who of
telecommunications
Click
for Portfolio User "wiredbrain" password "synergy"
SEE STOCKS GO INTO
ORBIT The economics profession, the federal reserve, national planners, and
the stock market is just learning to deal with rapid change in economic
behavior where ROI in many industries, can not be mainly based on past results.
Microsoft Internet Explorer 4.0 and Netscape are working on a Java
Machine that will be the core of most new computer applications. Suites of
application either on the "video" hard drive or on a systems server
will run on these virtual machines, so will autos, and all kinds of
"real" machines. This replaces Windows, Dos or other OS and MS knows
it. The communications industry, in fact all of Information Technology (IT)
will provide applications, voice, video, data and word processing on the
internet, intranets, extranets, are all built on this CORE system which
provides on demand applications. This is the BIG picture. This is the central
theme. This is the main thing. Do you "get it" ?Review
the technology with the central role of core systems clearly in mind.
Reflection
of a blue water sailor:
Lewis
Mumford describes the bells of the medieval village. The ringing of the bells
marked the hours in an almost endless and timeless regularity. People were born
and died within the sound of the bells. The world was regular, small, stable,
fixed and regulated by unchanging rules. This small space was only an anteroom
into the mystic heavens. The bells themselves started to change the world into
which they gave their sound. New technology began to change the world view.
From
the clock-works the sense of time and space helped mariners figure out where
they were. The craftsmen of the clocks, could make careful measurements of
space, and time; they could fine tune their tools, and then produce telescopes
attached to theodolites; An optical instrument consisting of a small mounted
telescope rotatable in horizontal and vertical planes, used to measure angles
in surveying, meteorology, and sextons for navigation.
If
you think you can just head out to find New Worlds by using "dead
reckoning" to figure your distance from where you started, and get your
position on planet earth from a compass and the polar star, you will get
seriously lost. You really can't tell where you are, and the longer you travel
the more lost you become. If there are reefs, and there always will be reefs,
no matter how sharp a look-out you are keeping, you will experience the rapid
change from the great boredom of sailing to moments of terror. In new lands and
unknown waters, by the time there are good charts, all the interesting treasure
has been found and taken by someone else. Blue water sailing or business, is
not tame and safe. It's a risk that must be taken, carefully.
With
a compass and a good clock, then you can know the exact time at Greenwich, and
by using the angle of the sun or stars you can calculate your position on the
round earth in relationship to the prime meridian in London. The noon
sun moves around the earth in 24 hours or 1440 minutes or 86,400 seconds. About
every three seconds the sun moves a nautical mile to a new position overhead,
so if you know the time and the exact moment when the sun is at its zenith, you
can figure out where you are on the big globe. This is called the noon sight,
when it is so many seconds west of noon at Greenwich it is so many nautical
miles from the prime meridian. The angle of the sun from the horizon, at that
moment, gives your latitude ( the higher the Sun is at the noon sight, on that
day of the year, in the Northern hemisphere of the earth, the more South you
are ). Navigators have to know the earth is round and how the heavens moves.
The sea captains and master builders, freemasons had to have a measure of stable
truth and sound measurement.
I
have been days in open water depending on these rough calculations to chart my
course. Now people have GPS. Ancient sailors of the Pacific could be guided by
the stars across vast open water. Knowing where you are is a sixth sense and
art form. Birds have a sense of the magnetic field.
Social-psychological
existence depends on time and space. Business and market strategies depend on
your position in social time and space. The most profound tools of navigation
are directional and the relationship in space-time from the prime meridian.
Direction is the sense of mission, goals and tasks, the role of traditional
management, dead reckoning, in setting and keeping to course. Management,
steering, is a necessary but NOT sufficient to the understanding global
positioning, leadership requires the greater skills of navigation.
The
understanding of your relationship and charting your course with knowledge of
the prime meridian requires a much wider spatial and temporal viewpoint. It
requires more advanced instruments than just a compass and the north star. The
helmsman, "government" means a helmsman, holds to a course set by the
navigator. It's a critical but limited function of all life. Without a sense of
position in relationship with the prime meridian many a proud ship will wander
in the shoals and crash upon the rocks.
What
is the prime meridian for business, education, the market today ? How has the
sound of the bells changed our world view ? Today the bells are digital and
the sounds are heard around the world in seconds.
user pflaump password synergy
Money
is made in the future by knowing the way, having a sense of absolute position
in multidimensional space and time.
U.S. White
House's Office of Science and Technology Policy report titled "Science and
Technology - Shaping the Twenty-First Century."
"No
technology promises to affect our world more profoundly than the rapid sweep of
digital technology. Every sector of our economy - manufacturing and services,
transportation, health care, education, and government - is being transformed
by the power of information technologies to create new products and services
and new ways to communicate, resulting in significant improvements in
productivity and knowledge sharing. "
Physical
Astronomy has discussed the space time continuum for 50 years ( since the
Special Theory of Relativity ) but very few of us can grasp the idea of curved
space and time. Time warps, however, a common experience.
Israel,
for example, is in a vortex of space time where a few thousand years of social
attitudes, from ancient tribes to post modern, swirl in conflicts projected
into a small space. Washington D. C. can be seen as partly stuck in the 18th
century, partly in the 19th century industrial age, partly in the new deal, and
partly in the modern tele-communications age from the 1960’s. In parts of
Africa, if people could return after a thousand years in the past, they would
not find life much changed. In other places, our grandfathers would find the
current world as strangers in a strange land. Queen Elizabeth II, was born into
a royal world so different, that cultural shock is a way of life to her and her
family. Of course they don't "get it" as new expectation and demands
arise from mass publics.
Digital
Town
The
penetration of digital technology into the home and the workplace is the reason
Telecom has decided to invest such substantial sums in this project and related
activities. The company, along with many other leading communications agencies
throughout the world, decided, correctly, some time ago that the future was
digital. What they don't know for definite is how ordinary people will relate
to these changes, what they will adopt and adapt to, and what they will reject.
Will online banking become the norm with the personal computer in the home
replacing the intimacy of the local branch office or post office? Will the
weekly shopping take place on the Web? And, most important, will every
individual see value or even care to understand the relative complexities this
new world will deliver. The future comes at a price; Telecom will use the
information gleaned from this major experiment to work out just what people are
prepared to pay.
The
organisers placed great store on the community aspects of the different
applications. They were not interested in towns which had not mobilised a
cross-section of local organisations, schools, services and industries. They
sought a town committed to the project, from the first to the last person. The
location of the applicants was also clearly important. Of the shortlisted
towns, only Kilkenny could be considered close to Dublin and its relatively
advanced communications infrastructure. The aim was to take a piece of rural
Ireland and give it a digital facelift, in the process opening a virtual window
to the world.
For
Ennis, this decision is a wonderful boost. Its young and old now face a
challenge which will be the envy of many other towns. Its cutting edge
technological infrastructure should entice both home and foreign
industrialists, creating an attractive environment in which local employment
should prosper. The judges, while lavish in their praise of all the shortlisted
towns, believed that the Co Clare town's practical plans and vision for the
future set it apart. But the hard work now begins of justifying the title of
Information Age Town.
These
letters from the future are notes from one of the many space-time locations
that exist in reality someplace, and projections of other locations that do not
yet exist. There is no single future as there is no single past. The past and
the future do not exist in whatever current space time place you now occupy but
are projections, myths, images seen darkly through a hall of mirrors - unknown
and unknowable. What we think about the past, our current fashions in history,
does shape our behavior and in the same way our expectations for the future
shape the present. Future studies is not very different in style and method
from history, if it is based on first hand reports from those that are already
there. There are people and firms living in our future, in space time beyond
where we now believe ourselves to exist. Time space does bend and move at
different speeds depending on force fields around us. "They'll Be
Crowding The Skies."
1,200
satellites from Motorola's Iridium, Loral-Qualcomm's Globalstar and Teledesic,
among other LEO projects-accumulates in the skies. Ultimately, from this point
of view, you might imagine the clutter of LEOs eclipsing the geostationary
orbit itself, the so-called Clarke belt, some 21,000 miles farther out. Named
after science-fiction guru Arthur C. Clarke, the geostationary orbit is the
girdle and firmament of the Hughes empire.
The
history of human communities is a unstable but consistent progression from
smaller and provincial toward larger and more universal.
From
family groups to clans, tribes, nations, empires, and inter-national grouping
and organizations. Time get faster, distance get bigger, events and change
speed up.
From
local spirits and myths of creation and a flat earth under a dome of the sky
to: A place where the earth turns, the Sun Stands Still, and the ideas of basic
astronomy promoted in the 16th and 17th centuries are
common knowledge.
The
18th century saw the separation of physical reality and science from
traditional faiths for the ruling classes but not for the mass public. Modern
humans become a part of natural history and evolution for the intellectuals but
not the bible belt. Objective science was firmly established in the 19th
century along with industrial urban society but the old styles remain. The
"church" really likes the 13th century, the reform "church"
the 17th.
In
our lifetime the solid earth has moved under our feet as great plates move
continents, mountains rise and fall.
In
our century, quanta theory allows material to go from here to there without
passing through the space between the objects. Mass and energy become parts of
general fields. Forces in Time-Space become curved and black holes become the
big bangs of more universes out of our sight in a huge cosmos.
Life
forms have been found miles deep in the oceans and within the earth, organic
life forms live without light, water or air. Organic microorganisms and genetic
materials most likely exist widely in space. Life is prevalent cosmically and
not special to our little corner of reality. The "real" world as we
experience it is only a special case, so our sense of space and time is very
provincial and solid matter is not what we think. These ideas are now getting
into 8th grade text books.
The
expansion of scientific thought has left the social, political and religious
paradigms out of sink. Industrial, management, educational and psychological
models which guide collective behavior no longer fit the reality of events.
CASES:
An
industrial school system and mega-Universities can no longer match the
information transfer technology and learning skills that produce wealth and
power. The role of education has declined as social gate keepers, with the role
of a many social institutions designed to maintain the class status quo. It is
getting harder for the ruling class to pass on family advantages to their
children. Status Universities who take youth of promise and socialize then into
the ways and rules of the ruling class now really need to make stronger
connections between thinking and doing. Social Class traditions have been
weakened by new systems of mass media and continuous learning.
A
small business, chamber of commerce, labor union model of political parties
doesn't relate to the changes in real power or the popular life experience and
concerns. The 18th century "balance of power"
constitutional structure and foreign policy doesn't work in the global economy.
The
modern corporation is under great pressure as the "model"
organization for economic life. The paradigm is shifting from industrial to
biological, from mechanical to cybernetic information systems, from
bureaucratic to dynamic small groups and task forces, from central command and
control to clusters and cloud chambers, from military campaigns to expeditions
in unknown territories. Management is moving from systems analysis to images of
wholes and probes of successive hypothesis and the analog of order in chaos.
NOT
EASY.
The
future has arrived, it just arrives in different places at different times: * Digital Bruce Claflin, Sr. VP & GM, Worldwide
Sales & Operations * EMC Michael Ruettgers, President & CEO * HP Bill
Russell, VP of Enterprise Servers Group * Sequent Casey Powell, Chairman &
CEO * Sun Scott McNealy, President & CEO * Oracle Lawrence J. Ellison,
Chairman & CEO, Ray Lane, President & COO In addition, there will be
more than 500 in-depth technical and training sessions, as well as an exhibit
hall with more than 300 strategic Oracle partners and solution providers.
Donald
Tapscott, author of the books Paradigm Shift, The Digital Economy
and the forthcoming Growing Up
Digital, will provide the opening keynote for the conference.The result
today is the new world disorder, unfolding at warp velocity. Previously
unimagined changes taking place in the world and their implications for our
professional and personal lives are relentless. There is an openness and a
volatility that seem rich with opportunity and fraught with danger for your
country, for your organization, for you, and for humanity. ..
The
overall structure of the economy is changing as well. A new industrial sector
is emerging from the convergence among computing (computers, software,
services), communications (telephony, cable, satellite, wireless), and content
(entertainment, publishing, information providers). This structure is depicted
in Figure 1.1. This interactive multimedia industry is narrowly defined as 10%
of the U.S. GDP. By the end of 1996, this industry will be an almost $1
trillion industry-44% computing, 28% communications, and 28% content. By 2005,
the industry will have grown to $1.47 trillion.
- Communications, media, the nature of work and the wealth
of nations.
Now meeting -International
TeleCommunications Union - parts of the developing world communications are
growing 30% a month
GEORGE SOROS:
and
common misconceptions: the division between conventional wisdom and reality.
In
any case, there is something wrong with making the survival of the fittest the
guiding principle of a civilized society. This social Darwinism is based on an
outmoded theory of evolution just as the equilibrium theory in economics is
based on Newtonian physics. The principle which guides the evolution of the
species is mutation, and mutation works in a much more sophisticated way. The
species and their environment are interactive, and one species serves as part
of the environment for the other species. There is a two-way feedback
mechanism, similar to reflexivity in history, only in history the mechanism is
driven not by mutation but by misconceptions.
The
controlling Paradigm:
George
Soros has make billions when the common knowledge, conventional wisdom is out of
sink with reality. His central point is that "objective reality" is
separate from the ideas that describe or explain what is being observed.
Whatever our ideas about "science" the physical reality doesn't
change. Our "uncertainty" or viewpoint on physical quantum doesn't
change the phenomena itself.
On
the other hand, public and expert
perceptions of human activities changes the nature of the activities
themselves. Our beliefs change our behavior and common social habits and ideas
change who we are and what we do. This is a reflective feedback loop between
perceptions and reality. Political theory, religious faiths, economic
assumptions, mass media chatter, advertising, hype, hope, needs, wants,
passions or truths and lies all make social reality "unknowable" and
social action can not be based on just objective reality and the facts.
Now
the social reality of the human population on planet earth is going through a
basic mutation, a major change in form, new forms of business evolution; where
common perceptions and conventional wisdom is often disconnected from the
situation on the ground. The mass emotion on the death of Princess Diana, is
unexplainable, so are stock markets, the impacts of technology, political
reform, capitalism in China, People's Liberation
Army and the major events of our lives. There can be balanced judgments and
clever analysis but nothing close to certain knowledge.
1Cor.13
[1]
Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not love, I am
become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal. [2] And though I have the gift
of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and all knowledge; and though I have
all faith, so that I could remove mountains, and have not love, I am nothing.
[3] And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my
body to be burned, and have not love, it profiteth me nothing. [4] love
suffereth long, and is kind; love envieth not; love vaunteth not itself, is not
puffed up, [5] Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not
easily provoked, thinketh no evil; [6] Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth
in the truth; [7] Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things,
endureth all things. [8] love never faileth: but whether there be prophecies,
they shall fail; whether there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be
knowledge, it shall vanish away. [9] For we know in part, and we prophesy in
part. [10] But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part
shall be done away. [11] When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood
as a child, I thought as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish
things. [12] For now we see
through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know in part; but then
shall I know even as also I am known. [13] And now abideth faith, hope, love,
these three; but the greatest of these is love.
The Catch-on Factor:
One
of the most important factors in human history is the "catch-on"
factor. Modern humans spread rather quickly over the planet 30,000 years ago,
wiping out earlier human types and a number of large animal species because of
their ability to communicate and learn. New tools and methods could spread from
group to group. The development of agriculture and domestic animals created a
"surplus" which we call "civilization", technical
specialists, writing, political structures, bureaucrats, priests, kings and
professional well armed and mobile military.
The
"Fates of Human Societies" ( Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel )
including business organizations, nations and regions depend on the
applications of a general theory of causation. A suitable environment with a
variety of plants and animals gives the opportunity to create wealth and large,
dense, sedentary societies with division of labor equals TECHNOLOGY - weapons,
transportation, political organization, science, writing, education, =
PROGRESS. China and Europe offered large areas where many groups in conflict
and exchange forced change and learning. Those groups that learned and changed
survived, those that were slow were conquered by the better armed.
The
science of history
-
and/or human social ecology - What and how people do in their environment - Why
Spain took Mexico and not the other way around - The answer is food production
which creates support for "civilization" kings, priests, scribes,
bureaucrats, cannon and the military. Dense populations who live around animals
have a lot of diseases - germs spread faster than armies and did in the native
populations and causes havoc before the military conquest. So grains, guns and
germs gave the Western Europeans a temporary advantage.
Now
large cooperative, stable, educated, well behaved, societies have natural
advantages over the more war-like Europeans and New World cowboy economies. The future maybe with China and the far east - the last
half millennium was European the next millennium will be a return to the
cultural advantages of Asia - from Genus Kahn to the
People's Liberation
Armycomputer networks. The science of history is very primitive - of course
- if we understood better that would change behavior and history - the unstable
feedback loops can not be fixed in physical models.
Human
Evolution was for 300,000 years in troops - where everyone knew each other,
their names and the relationships. Any animal behavior in their packs, troops,
herds and their breading behavior is almost impossible to change. The few
species that became domestic have patterns of status and "pecking
orders" that allow humans to "implant" themselves as dominant
and in control. Most species will not become domestic after thousands of years
of efforts. Zebras do not act like horses, Camels remain nasty, most animals
are subject to panic and some will not bread in zoos. Humans have evolved with
the same kind of behavioral "groves". Social conditions that fit the
groves of human psychology and social-biological habits (Edward O. Wilson)work
better that conditions that don't. "Human" urban conditions push
humans beyond the breaking point. Stable organizations must use "group
dynamics" as forms of extended families and clans, troops and tribes to
form nations.
The
functions of any society, group, class, school, business, is:
1.)
Effective conflict resolution PATHOS ( feeling )
good rather than nasty
2.) rational effective decision making LOGOS -
if people feel OK They can behave more reasonably
3.) harmonious economic redistribution ( synergy ) ETHOS
- shared values and goods - not socialism but rational welfare policy -
makes one and two possible - Capitalism as Greed is dysfunction - but so is
free for nothing socialism
4.)
better technology ( the result of one, two and three ) plus
5.)
police and/or military power ( law and order )
6.)
large and productive territories by way of the the growth of US as more and
more others are included as US and less defense from them as less and less
outsiders are THEM. Good Religion and Politics should allows for more inclusion
less exclusion. All religion is not good, all values are not right or useful,
all politics is not bad, all education is not useful, all business is not
greedy, all women, blacks, Jews, et al is not anything. Prejudice is not a
rational guide to social or personal wisdom.
The
inclusion of more and more people and their differences allows for innovations,
freedom of expression, democracy, freedom and
7.)
integration of smaller groups into larger wholes -
The
Politically correct visions of left and right often miss the fundamentals of
social history and science. The right forgets the critical role of the
"whole" and the left the requirements for standards and clear returns
on investments, where cost and benefits depend on individual achievement
motivation to go faster, further and higher. Such motivation is best done in
"collectives" families, groups, packs, tribes, schools, factories,
political parties, churches, and other human life forms.
The
last few centuries has seen a rapid growth of technology as "critical
mass" is generated more quickly and information is transferred through
better organized channels. Railroads took 75 years to go from experimental to
universal, auto's 50 years, television 25 years, and now computers and
satellites have moved social learning into "dog years" where two
months is a "year".
The
social physical ecology that promotes or forms barriers to "progress"
are a.) size b.) variety c.) competition d.) social learning - political
stability and provision of infrastructure.
The
United States, Europe's community, China India and Russia all have the size.
Europe and India benefits from variety. The multi-cultural US can get quite
provincial and "know-nothing". The decline of socialism has added
some competition in Russia and China and India, America is the most open and
competitive society. The provisions of social learning and infrastructure is
best in Europe with America political
institution badly out of date and ineffective - 15,000 school boards,
divided government, politics by the individual campaigner's money and tactics (
not party or policy ). People's Liberation
Army
TINY
HAS PCS TO REPLACE TV,
PHONE AND FAX UK personal computer manufacturer Tiny Computers Ltd believes
the television set will die out as a result of its new range of personal
computers. The machines, called the Home Entertainment System combines the
functionality of a computer, games consul, fax, telephone, answerphone, compact
disk player and a television. Running on an Intel Corp 233MHz Pentium II
processor, the machine has a 4.3Gb hard drive, and will sell for around $1,700.
However, by the spring, Rupert Murdoch's News Corp will be entering into UK
digital television, with British Interactive Broadcasting Ltd, a joint venture
32.5% owned by Murdoch's UK satellite television company British Sky
Broadcasting Plc, and 32.5% by British Telecom, 20% by Midland Bank Plc, and
10% by Matsuishita Electric Ltd. The set-top boxes sold at launch will be
subsidized to a price of 200 pounds, and include a modem ( or digital
connection to replace the analog ) and a bundled internet service, which will
be the cheapest way for consumers to get on the internet. British Interactive
Broadcasting is cagey about who its Internet service provider is going to be,
saying only that it will offer a consumer orientated service. Of course, should
British Interactive Broadcasting pick Springboard as its internet service
provider, and if it manages to sell the 1 million set top boxes it anticipates,
LineOne would become the largest UK internet provider extremely quickly.
This is your brain (click image)
Great
opportunities for a few Million good people
The
future does not exist. We can control our beliefs about who we are and where we
fit in. We are *100 "selves" parent, worker, economic, political,
romantic, soldier, sailor, beggar, thief, saint and sinner, and 88 more
including a god. We can select from these selves those that will get us what we
want and need. We can also select our wants and needs to fit what we can get.
Wireless
companies that aren't preparing now, that don't understand how they must
operate at the breakneck pace of "Internet time," that don't shorten
their development cycles, that can't take full advantage of the Web to promote
their wares will see their core business change. And it won't be for the
better.
We
are in a period of tremendous change. A wireless jungle where old technologies
must evolve to survive and where proponents of new technologies are jockeying
for dominance. It is a dangerous and exciting time where existing business
models can crumble and more nimble, innovative companies can usurp established
institutions. Uncovering these developments, analyzing their effects and
recommending solutions is what this Web site (and our other services) is all about.
The
new version is simplified, with a more central focus for personal agent
technology from the web search engine specialist Cambridge, UK-based start-up
Autonomy Systems Plc.
Autonomy's
Founder and Managing Director Dr Mike Lynch claims that the i3 Agentware
technology is superior to agent products from other agent specialists such as
Verity Inc, and General Magic Inc. The major difference is the use of context
comparison rather than plain text comparison which the agent software achieves
by using pattern recognition with artificial intelligence and neural network
technology. This enables the delivery truly personalized services, which can be
left to roam LineOne and the internet, searching for items, which either alerts
or electronic mails items to the user when logged off the service. Autonomy has
also developed an agent that delivers personalised advertising to the consumer,
and builds up an ongoing profile of the user, so it can feed them increasingly
pertinent information. Mike Lynch claims that LineOne in its new form is the
showcase for Autonomy's agent systems.
Earth
Stations are located in major cities and the major NODES of the World Wide Web
From the major nodes optic fiber or microwave links to local transfer
stations.
From the transfer stations - ASDL
wires to business and some personal housing also has direct two way Cable, or wireless linkages
Heavy
Users station their servers in transfer stations where they are subject to
regular backup and maintained. IT technocratics can manage the server from
remote locations just as well as on station.
Users
have a utility modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) for T.V.
cable, wireless phone and pagers, fax, and WWW connections.
Attached
to the universal modem ( or digital connection to replace
the analog ) can be regular PC's, Network PC's, Network Computers, terminals,
Web on TV, Game boards, with or flash memory, DVD-RAM ( digital Video drives )
Users
can have zig-a-bytes of programs or use services from their local nodes - there
will be competition in all these area - communications carriers, earth
stations, special high speed private networks, with several lanes of traffic on
the I-way. ( Information Super Highway )
Low
cost common carriers, premium services, and high security private networks,
using different codes and segments of the bandwidth(new
developments). PHILIPS LAUNCHES 'PC INTO TV' HOME ENTERTAINMENT BOXES
Philips Electronics NV announced two digital home entertainment devices aimed
at integrating personal computer capabilities into televisionsat the IFA show
in Berlin. The DVX8000 is a digital home cinema device aimed at the US market.
It offers high-end video capabilities including a television tuner, video line
doubler, DVD player for DVD-Movies, DVD-ROM, CD-ROM and CD Audio. Audio
capabilities include an FM tuner and a Marantz-designed pre-amplifier. A
wireless keyboard and a Marantz RC2000 remote control are also included.
Internet browsing and plug-ins are also provided for on-line access. Personal
computer functionality is based on a 233MHz Intel Pentium MMX processor, a
Trident 3D graphics accelerator, 4Mb of video memory and 32Mb of RAM. It will
be available in the US in October for $5,000 and versions suitable for selected
European countries will be out by the middle of 1998.
The
Utility Communicator is being designed by Intel, The network is already on
line. Almost anything you can think of, is under development somewhere- See packets.htm for examples.
Microsoft
scours world for employees.
US
software giant Microsoft has announced plans to increase its US workforce by 19
per cent over the next 12 months, maintaining the west coast of America as 'the
centre of the universe for the software business'. The company plans to recruit
3,600 people, many of whom will come from outside the US due to a shortage of
good software developers in the States. The Independent, UK. 18/07/97
IT For example: The
demand for skilled foreign IT people : Salary increase 17 % per year,
. The
Information Technology Association of America, which represents hundreds of
companies from Intel and Microsoft to consultants and recruiters, estimates
there are already 190,000 high tech positions standing vacant in American IT
and non-IT companies. "This can be considered a conservative estimate of
the gap between companies&rsquo growth needs and the current availability
of IT workers," says the ITAA study, "Help Wanted: The IT Workforce
A
powerful coalition of American IT companies say these highly educated
immigrants are a critical part of solving a severe personnel shortage that is a
drag on the U.S. industry. They warn that they may be forced to take their
production outside the country if they can&rsquot hire more people from
abroad.
IEEE-USA
Legal Immigration Policy Issue ... URL: http://www.ieee.org/usab/DOCUMENTS/FORUM/ISSUES/immigration.html
Summary:
In 1990, partly in response to claims that the nation faced serious shortages
of engineers and scientists, Congress authorized substantial increases in employment-based
immigration to the United States. Engineering unemployment increased from 2.1%
in 1990 to an all time high of 4.1% in 1993 when 73,000 engineers were out of
work. More Like This: Click here to perform a search for documents like this
one.
(
stories from Excite )
There
is a current shortfall of 250,000 IT positions in the US costing billions of
dollars;
MS
great idea was not technological but social.
They
collected people and created synergy. What Microsoft has is not only a great
leadership but 1000's of motivated and talented creators. They hired
"people" and then found how they fit in - they didn't create
positions and try to fit people into jobs.
It's
the culture stupid. The shift is from material resources to human talents.
Going
with the flow of the changes over the next 15 years:
In
the near future ( a few years ) most homes and offices will have a [Greek
têle-, from têle, far off.] Window =[Middle English, from Old Norse vindauga :
vindr, air, wind + auga, eye.][Middle English communen, from Old French
communier (from Latin commúnicâre). See COMMUNICATE and from Old French
communer, to share (from commun, common). See COMMON.]
The
spirit in the world "deus ex machina",
THE TELEcommuner
TELEcommuner
boxes will have a screen that will be used all the time as the yellow pages and
as a personal address book. The telecommuner will be common to do remote shopping,
view web pages, send e-mail, or fax ( with a plug in printer scanner ) THE
TELEcommuner is the base for a cordless phone and radio. THE TELE-caster (news)
is a plug-in to the universal modem ( or digital connection to replace the
analog ) from the webTV or DSB ( Direct Satellite Broadcast ) and wired DSL or
wireless connections. Billions of THE TELEcommuner will be used all over the
world where there are not good wires, in cars and trucks with GPS (maps), in
the military, in schools and colleges, libraries and become as common as
phones. Network computers become one more plug and play device with Digital
Video read and write memory on-demand video programs. A good share of work is
done by tele-communers working on many business activities - banking, financial
services, travel, goods and services of all kinds.
The
future belongs to the aggressive, fast organizations that grab the new
technology - Examples: C/net, Excite, CNN, Ericsson, Nortel, Lucent, Motorola,
Hughes-Atcatel, Zenith, General Instruments, Scientific Attlanta, TCI,
EchoStarr and the News-corp, Cisco, AmerTech, @home, ..N.O.I.S.E... Netscape,
Oracle, IBM, SunMicrosystems and Everyone else ( Corel, Novell )
See: Markets from May 96:
Aug
5th ....in one day with a flat market.. Communications
stocks in ORBIT
some stocks
rise other sink our list is up 20 % since Aug 5th
These
predictions ignore three things: (1) the mounting pressure for faster access,
(2) the realities of consumer behavior and (3) the difference between
monopolistic and competitive markets.
Berst Alert
TUESDAY, AUGUST 05, 1997 The Future of Fast Access
Jesse
Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk
You
can't always figure out the future by looking at the past. Especially if you're
trying to guess how and when American households will get fast Web access.
See Packets.htm
The
PLA ( People's Liberation Army ) Contract:
The
PLA needs a tough all terrain communications device
- Communicator with Data, Voice, graphics, ( Internet Browser ) brown box by
the millions. The bandwidth is provided by Satellites and wireless transporters
like cellular phones but better.
The
PLA has the capacity to launch satellites and participate in manufacture of the
network equipment and instruments. The contract could be for 10 years a few
billion a year. The system has vast private applications. Cable & wireless,
Singapore communications, German and Italian telephone, The Russian networks
all can use the low cost tough cellular capacity of Low orbit satellites.
Information
Technology:The People's Liberation Army (PLA)is forging close ties with China's
powerful Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (MPT). The developing
alliance, as a result of PLA's control over a sizeable portion of the radio
frequencies used in cellular communications, could eventually create a third
nationwide carrier. The PLA and MPT are currently laying the groundwork for a
mobile phone network that will be called the "Great Wall Network". It
will use an advanced digital standard called "code division multiple
access" (CDMA). CDMA is the latest U.S. digital standard, it provides
higher capacity gains over current analog systems than the global system for
mobile communications (GSM). GSM is the main European standard being currently
implemented by the MPT and Unicom.
The first product of the new group
will be Eye Ris, a new videoconferencing product for television and personal
computer use. It offers full duplex audio and live video at up to 15 frames per
second over ordinary telephone lines and dial-up internet connections. On a
computer screen, it offers 160 by 120 pixel image size. According to Baraka
Intracom, the system is the only videoconferencing system that can communicate
over PSTN, POTS, the internet, ISDN and local and wide area networks. The
product will be offered in two versions; a stand alone unit that includes a
set-top box camera and remote control priced at 200 pounds and an installed version
that includes CD- ROM software, video card and camera at 375 pounds. Both are
due out in November. Other products in the Baraka Intracom portfolio include
the VidCall 32 computer videoconferencing tool; the MediaViews internet
multimedia broadcast system and the EyeWatch PC-based security system. The
company also plans to bring out products for intercasting audio and video email.
Iridium IRIDF at 28 7/8 up 40 1/2
****GOOD
Orbital Sciences ORBI at 20 7/16 22
5/8 ***GOOD
Globalstar GSTRF 35 to 37 to 40 7/8
****Good
SEE
MESSAGE and STOCKS
FOR
CURRENT PRICES from DataBroadcasting
http://stocks.wired.com/stocks_portfolios.asp
wiredbrain password synergy
24,780 to 26,836 up 8.3 %
August 4, 1997
PC At Work Failing
with style is software's hardest job
By Peter Coffee
Complex systems usually operate in
failure mode. This is the Fundamental Failure-Mode Theorem of John Gall,
propounded in his 1975 book "Systemantics." Microsoft, it seems, has
finally come to understand this insight.
What Gall meant was that it's pointless
to talk about how a system behaves when all of its parts are doing what the
designer had in mind. Real-world systems rarely have that luxury, since, at any
given moment, at least one part of any nontrivial system (including the
system's user) is having a bad day.
Good design limits the damage that
results. By this criterion, Office 97 and Windows 95 exemplify bad design.
Microsoft admitted as much with last month's announcement of the forthcoming
"reinvention" of Office.
THE LONG BOOM ?
We're facing 25 years of
prosperity, freedom, and a better environment for the whole world. You got a
problem with that?
by Peter Schwartz and
Peter Leyden
US
government adopts a new information-age standard of measuring economic growth.
Unsurprisingly, actual growth rates are higher than what had registered on the
industrial-age meter. The US economy is growing at sustained rates of around 4
percent - rates not seen since the 1960s.
Businesses,
as well as most organizations outside the business world, begin to shift from
hierarchical processes to networked ones. People working in all kinds of fields
-
the
professions, education, government, the arts - begin pushing the applications
of networked computers. Nearly every facet of human activity is transformed in
some way by the emergent fabric of interconnection. This reorganization leads
to dramatic improvements in efficiency and productivity.
The
driving force here is not so much concern with enlightening young minds as
economics. In an information age, the age of the knowledge worker, nothing
matters as much as that worker's brain. By the end of the 1990s, it becomes
clear that the existing public K-12 school system is simply not up to the task
of preparing those brains.
One
is the introduction of personal computers. The other is the breakup of the Bell
System. These events trigger two of the five great waves of technological
change that will eventually help fuel the long boom...Biotech, computers, telecom, Infotech, and nanotech -
contribute to a surge of economic activity.
Wiredbrain:
The BIG picture. It all comes together. The network
as a life form. Computers and telecom and InfoTech is ONE with nanotech..
small chips as plug-ins (smart cards) to a universal modem ( or digital
connection to replace the analog ). The drive behind the market is high tech
global business and low tech utilities in the developing world. China has one
phone per 400 people - make it one satellite phone for every 100 adults is 12
million to start, world wide 150 million low cost modem ( or digital connection
to replace the analog )s in Latin America, India, Eastern Europe and another
100 million high grade communications terminals in the industrial countries.
Channels can carry this traffic with ease.
People's Liberation
Army
It's right before my eyes.
I am using Netscape Composer running as a Java machine. The
Communicator is in a box, it is in a connection, it is a system of
relationships, from laptops, network computers, digital telephones with prices
from $50.00 ( cordless phone) to $5,000 ( multi-link video conferences ) using
a common standard. AoL ANS networks and Intel on packets.htm
By
1998, the Iridium global phone network is complete. By 2002, Teledesic's global
Internet network is operational. These projects, among others, allow seamless
connection to the information infrastructure anywhere on the planet by early in
the century. By about 2005, high-bandwidth connections that can easily move
video have become common in developed countries, and videophones finally catch
on.
Alongside
the migration of the traditional retail world into cyberspace, completely new
types of work are created. Many had speculated that computer networks would
lead to disintermediation - the growing irrelevance of the middleman in
commerce.
Throughout
the early part of the century, the combination of a deeper understanding of
genetics, human biology, and organic chemistry leads to a vast array of
powerful medications and therapies. .. Superproductive animals and ultrahardy,
high-yielding plants bring another veritable green revolution to countries
sustaining large populations. ....
Quantum
computing, rather than DNA computing, proves to be the heir to microprocessors
in the short run.
Hybrid
electric car, British Columbia-based Ballard Power Systems are steadily
developing the technology with little public fanfare. Within 10 years, there
are transitional hydrogen car models that extract fuel from ordinary gasoline,
using the existing network of pumps. By 2010, hydrogen is being processed in
refinery-like plants and loaded onto cars that can go thousands of miles - and
many months - before refueling. The technology is vastly cheaper and safer than
in the 1960s and well on its way to widespread use.
By
2020, the Chinese economy has grown to be the largest in the world. Though the
US economy is more technologically sophisticated, and its population more
affluent, China People's
Liberation Army and the United States are basically on a par. China has
also drawn much of Asia in its economic wake - Hong Kong and Shanghai are the
key financial nodes for this intricate Asian world.
The
Western ( white ) Industrial world is likely to decline in relative terms from
two thirds of Global Product (WGP) to 45 %. China will move from underdeveloped
to developing, from less than a $1,000 PCP ( per capita product ) to over
$5,000 ( in current dollars ). The developing world will grow from one third of
the Global economy to about half. Social, political power follows economic so
the Global Center of Cultural Gravity shifts from the Middle East and Asia in
the 15th century to Europe to America in the 20th century and from America back
to Asia in the 21st century.
The
second change is why the first is happening - the third wave is
technology, first was Agriculture from 6,000 BC to modern times, second was
Industrial, the third is
IT
Information
Technology which is already our biggest business. ITcomputers and telecommunication is
bigger than transportation, construction even government. The reason for growth
without inflation is the major shift in the means of production and
distribution. Traditional economic models based on physical assets and goods (
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, wholesale and retail ) factory utilization,
inventory miss the changing picture of reality. Even The Federal Reserve (
Greenspan ) has noticed the shift in economic activity. They feel productivity
of IT is having a important effect but aren't sure how ITeffects the basic
economic structure.
The
means of production are now intellectual, value is distribution by services
such as educational, medical, financial, design, media, telecommunications,
electrical, and involve global relationships. The shift is from
"objects" to "forms", from things to concepts and ideas. A
big shift, example, best explained by Fritjoe Capra
in physics and Kevin Kelly in Biology Living.htm see
also book.htm
Two
milestones come in 1997: the Information Technology Agreement, in which almost
all countries trading in IT agree to abolish tariffs by 2000, and the Global
Telecommunications Accord, in which almost 70 leading nations agree to rapidly
deregulate their domestic telecom markets. These two developments quickly
spread the two key technologies of the era: computers and telecommunications.
Backwards:
From argument to intrigue :
The
1980s and 1990s see the emergence of small, innovative private schools that
proliferate in urban areas where the public schools are most abysmal. Many
focus on specific learning philosophies and experiment with new teaching
techniques - including the use of new computer technologies. Beginning around
2001, the widespread use of vouchers triggers a rapid expansion in these types
of schools and spurs an entrepreneurial market for education reminiscent of the
can-do ethos of Silicon Valley. Many of the brightest young minds coming out of
college are drawn to the wide-open possibilities in the field - starting new
schools, creating new curricula, devising new teaching methods. They're
inspired by the idea that they're building the 21st-century paradigm for learning.
FIGHTS:
It
happens all the time - in Universities, in schools, in the U.S. Congress, in
families and churches; and a lot of companies. Honest discussion, freedom of
expression, breaks down and people turn to plots and personal agendas. Maybe
this is the best clue to future success or failure. I would invest in firms, or
societies where there is open discussion of
the issues.
What
happened to Apple was not mainly problems with markets and technology but
cultural. There is no magic from the great CEO from above - some great idea or
certain magic leader .. but a social system. Apple was a great place that was
(almost) destroyed by people who didn't understand or care about relationships.
The
Sense and reality of Control:
Many,
if not most people, believe they can not control who they are - they
believe they are what they are and can't change their basic character or
personality.
We can control the inside more than we can control the outside; so our (
Western ) belief system is in constant conflict with external reality. In the
grand scheme of things, we mainly really only control our beliefs about reality
and our attitudes about what we can do about our future. The art of
"success" is the faith in the future, and our attitude:
Going
with the flow…not in a passive way but proactive get us down stream. It is going
along with the reality of ourselves and the world around us in order to
get along with ourselves and the world around us. It releases energy if we
are in the main stream rather that fighting the flow of energy in self
conflict. Fighting with reality because the world is NOT what we think it is,
is a childish waste of time and kind of crazy in grown-ups.
Many
people, if not most people, believe they can and are responsible to control the
world around them. They know a lot of things are "out of control" but
they maintain a belief in control. This is what it is "a belief". It
causes a lot of frustration and tension.
Color Coded Guide to Knowledge
Campbell, Joseph
1904-1987
American mythologist who wrote numerous influential works,
including The Hero with a Thousand Faces (1949) and the four-volume Masks
of God (1959-1967).
The
Perennial Philosophy:
The
common error: Making a thing out of an Idea
God
is not an object, the Christ is not a person, The church is not an organization,
Myth,
poems, art, dance, music are expressions of intuitions of the spirit. Art is
not self-expression ( or it's not very interesting if it is ) but of a relationship
with the spirits (muse) that can not be expressed in any other way.
The
expression of the spirit, the soul, the divine, the universal, is the role of
natural religion. Humans have always had the need to connect their external
world with an Internal and universal spirit. Because "soul" is
immaterial doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It exists as the ether, as emotions,
as chemistry, as a lover, as a patriot, as an artist, as a skilled crafts
person, being all together inside out with the spirits beyond self and material
culture.
Western religion stem from The Persian
religious leader Zoroaster in this century will found a faith whose sacred
literature will be the Zend-Avesta. The teachings of Zoroaster (Zarathustra)
will dominate Persian religious thought for centuries. The good is in battle
with evil - The Christ come to defeat the devil and recreate Eden.
Confuse
the map for the territory:
The
decline of religion comes when organizations confuse the "path" or
spiritual journey with doctrine and material objects - the Christ as Person,
God as three Persons, ceremony into material action, parable and analogy into
the " Literal Word of God ". The reason is simple - it's easier, it
sells better, it gives more power to priests and churches, and is a cheap quick
fix.
Tradition
Religion is represented by the Grand
Inquisitor fundementalist who is defined as tyrant, rigorist, pedant,
precisian, formalist, stickler, red-tapist, bureaucrat petty tyrant, who makes
everyone into slaves. That's why the American republic was founded by
FreeMasons, Quakers, unitarians and deism (dê´îz´em) in reaction to the purtian
fundementalist. The belief, based solely on reason, in a God who created the
universe and then abandoned it, assuming no control over life, exerting no influence
on natural phenomena, and giving no supernatural revelation. [French déisme,
from Latin deus, god.]
In
the Brothers Karamazov, Dostoevski has the Grand
Inquisitor interviews Christ who is imprisoned upon his returned for
causing trouble. He tell Jesus ( Lover of the spirit ) that ordinary people
just aren't up to the challenge of making up their own minds, doing the hard
work and finding their own way to salvation. Therefore the Church at the sure
loss of their own souls - is giving them "the way". The Inquisitor
knows the Church can't save souls by formulas and ritual. But this is all
people understand and it would be cruel and dangerous to take it away from
them. And a threat to law and order and the Church & State. Christ just is
going to have to die again.
The
"path" of the spirit takes work, attention, and the discoveries along
the way are sometimes unpleasant. It's a lot easier to say "you believe
and you will get everything " … Life after death, what bull. BUT still
some religion is better than none -
Religion
in the 21 st century:
Sectarian
fundamentalism is not a birth pain but a sign of death. The great religions are
breaking up into "White Buffalo
Cults " because they are not doing their job. They do not relate to
the traditions human emotional and spiritual needs and they can not help
connect the human spirit to the physical world. The big lie only last so long..
Sectarian fundamentalist Religion can not deliver on the wild promises.
Spirit
cults, hatha yoga, The new "sufi", still have clues to the path for
those who seek. The 21st century will see new great religions that
may even call them selves Christian or Islam or Buddhist but will be based on
"practice", breath, song, dance, and may have "teachers"
but be more priest free.
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