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It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
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another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
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SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
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political initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies & technologies
The
Money Machine
Global Markets; Market !
Continued
- The
Financial
Weather
Report
- NEWS
before
it
happens
It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Click image for
site Information
Work
in progress -
Make PORTALS
your home page and use "wiredbrain" password "synergy" for set-up start
pages.
*
MSN now does the best search
Use the Codes to Wiredbrain
Social
ergonomics
Current posts
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
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political initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies & technologies
The
Money Machine
Global Markets; Market !
Continued
- The
Financial
Weather
Report
- NEWS
before
it
happens
It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Work in progress -
Make PORTALS
your home page and use "wiredbrain" password "synergy" for set-up start
pages.
*
MSN now does the best search
Use the Codes to Wiredbrain
Social
ergonomics
Current posts
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
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Current posts
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political initiative
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The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
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educational reform
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The
Money Machine
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
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political initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies & technologies
The
Money Machine
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political initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies & technologies
The
Money Machine
pflaump@cfl.rr.com -pflaump@cfl.rr.combrpflaump@cfl.rr.comR>pflaump@cfl.rr.compost.htm">post.htm
political initiative
social political issues.htm
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies & technologies
The
Money Machine
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
salestax
educational reform
communications technology
The next companies & technologies
The
Money Machine
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
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The next companies & technologies
The
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communications technology
The next companies & technologies
The
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The next companies & technologies
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The
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Global Markets; Market !
Continued
- The
Financial
Weather
Report
- NEWS
before
it
happens
Continued
- The
Financial
Weather
Report
- NEWS
before
it
happens
- The Financial Weather Report - NEWS before it happens
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
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another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
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WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
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SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
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For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
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HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
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before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
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another backup server
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WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
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SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
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For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
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HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
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password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
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another backup server
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WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
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another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
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WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
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HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
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a
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another backup server
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SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
TO CONTINUE from
MONEY page
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
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WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
CONTINUED from Money page
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The private sector is ill-suited to allocate international credit. It provides
either too little or too much. It does not have the information with which
to form a balanced judgment. Moreover, it is not concerned with maintaining
macroeconomics balance in the borrowing countries. Its goals are to maximize
profit and minimize risk. This makes it move in a herd-like fashion
in both directions.
The excess always begins with over expansion, and the correction is
always associated with pain. But with the intervention of the IMF and other
official lenders, the pain is felt more by the borrowers than by the creditors.
That is why over expansion has recurred so soon after each crisis. Successive
crises have, however, become more difficult to handle.
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The Korean crisis, as distinct from that in other south-east Asian
countries, bears some similarities to Brazil in 1982 - with one major difference:
the loans are not to Korea as a sovereign country but to individual companies.
This has made it more difficult to get the banks to act collectively....
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand,
Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its
problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
There are other shoes that may yet drop, notably China. On the other hand, Japan, which looks so bad at present, has the wherewithal to solve its problems.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Greenspan shocked markets over the weekend
with his
focus on deflation. Markets will be looking for a ratification of his
views
from the 2 governors speaking Tuesday. And while people are still
interested in how the Fed views the ongoing Asia crisis, if the Fed
officials simply stick to that spiel about growth being cut about half
a
percentage point or so, there won't be much reaction. Also, there's
a lot
going on with South Korea, so any news on how that country is making
its
way through its short-term funding crisis has implications for all
3 major
financial markets here. On the forex front, Japanese vice-minister
for
Finance Sakakibara is coming to DC and New York later this week. Forex
traders, ever the conspiracy theorists, will be spinning all sorts
of views
as to what Mr. Yen will cook up when he meets with US Treasury officials.
FOREX:
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The markets will continue to bid up the dollar/yen if central
banks do
not intervene. Dollar/yen should trade in 131.75+135.00, while dollar/DM
range
is expected to be 1.8000+1.8350. Even if the BOJ does not intervene,
Sakakibara's trip to the US Wednesday through Friday will likely keep
traders on edge.
BONDS:
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The market will be waiting to see if any remarks from Fed governors
Meyer or Phillips support its upwardly mobile interpretation of Chairman
Greenspan's comments about deflation. If these officials choose to
focus
once again on deflation, look for more price gains. But if they caution
the
market for reading too much into the Chairman's comments, prices are
likely
to give back some of the gains posted Monday. Also today, players will
be
watching the weekly retail sales data.
US STOCKS: Volatility is expected to continue as market jitters persist
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar
remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
ahead of the release of fourth-quarter earnings. All eyes will be focused
on the overnight performances of key Asian markets as the calendar remains
light on economic news.
BOJ SEEN GENEROUS:
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to continue
to take a generous stance in the money market in January in order to curb
any rise in the unsecured overnight call loan rate, money traders said.
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise
funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit,
in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or
so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in
Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The traders said private banks will continue to find it difficult to raise funds through term-instruments, such as 3-month certificates of deposit, in the money market. (Story .108) What to watch: Japan 15258.74
Japan and other troubled economies sell a billion dollars or so of US bonds to recapitalize banks and brokers that have trillions in Yen bad debt.
The stock market
fall
( wiredbrain password synergy ) is undermining
the value of banks' and life insurance companies' equities holdings, cutting
into their capital. This is forcing the banks to raise additional funds
by selling equities, undermining the market still further.
The Nikkei collapse
is also forcing banks to tighten lending, which in turn is leading to a
big increase in corporate bankruptcies. That creates further selling pressure
on the stock market - so undermining the value of the banks' equities holdings.
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
"We've got into a dangerous negative spiral; it's difficult to know
what the authorities can do," says Ryoji Musha of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
in Tokyo.
At yesterday's closing Nikkei level, more than half of Japan's top 19
banks have sustained losses on their equity portfolios, according to brokers
Jardine Fleming. Bank shares have fallen 32 per cent since September.
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
This is alarming because banks count 45 per cent of "unrealised gains"
- the difference between the "market" value of the shares and the "book
value" of the shares in the banks accounts - on their holdings as capital.
If the market does not rebound before the financial year-end in March,
many banks will have to book big losses. This will weaken their capital
to assets ratio - the conventional measure of financial strength set by
the Bank for International Settlements.
They sell $ bonds and buy yen - drives dollar down and yen up - interest
rates up - decline in foreign sales slows US economy; growth
drops to under 2.5 % in 4 Q 1997 and 2.25 % in 1 Q 1998, under 2
% in 2 Q 1998 ( down from 3 to 4 % forecasts ) Profits up 6 % rather than
12 to 14 % as forecast - FED lowers rates - 30 Y to 5.5 %
by April and 5 % by June, notes just under 4 % by April. S&P
500 range at 860 at P/E of 17, to 930 at P/E of 20 with 5
% long term rates is
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
fair market value.
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Go to
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
FLASH.HTM
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for
now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
which is updated during the day, this will be a fee for service site, for now sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy":
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
money page will be done
at 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at
6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices. Sometimes
we are down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a backup server -
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
the
market for:
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
US market
could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality)
( future DOWN )
out of 15 ( 20 points but
15 scale)
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
Technologies
2X market FLAT
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
Pause in
Asia's
Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London
)
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed:
bonds [ at 6.0
%
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia's Rally and Europe's off record high ( US Germany France London )
Markets Asia down ( mixed) Europe UP mixed: bonds [ at6.0 %
bonds
down, interest UP well off lows of 5.65 high of 6.2 ] and currencies
(dollar) UP , in a tight range in a
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
positive FX market - Indonesia Rupiah down 15 % to 11,500 from low
of 5,000 high of 15,000
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
(on scale from +15 to +15).
(on scale from +15 to +15).
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -)
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 55 % 5.5 = 65 %
6.5 = 70 % 7.5 = 75 % 10 = 80 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances
beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further
unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports,
lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic
production vs. lower cost imports.
Reports of weaker dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances beginning to show up a little - causing higher interest because of further unwinding of the flight to quality sales of US bonds, lowers exports, lower growth and profits because of higher costs of skilled labor in domestic production vs. lower cost imports.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, Taiwan stocks as the key index approached
the 9,300-point level.:
remarkable Global Momentum
continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced
foreign markets - High somewhere around 1055,
GOING
DOWN GOING UP look at this....
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Support
Level key 200 day low now near old average of 955.
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
UP + [ TRADE ** INDEX ]***
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
?
SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500
1050
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
a
backup server - I am in Florida.
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
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Document Search Service
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
NDX
goes down ( it's going DOWN with the
$SOX
$SOX
TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
For those who think this page is stable go to FLASH
.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
HTM
which is updated during the day.
which is updated during the day.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the
day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just
before the market opens with news and bond prices.
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain"
password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's
important to bookmark the
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain" password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm
http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/flash.htm
another backup server
|
HotBot can search specific directories and subdirectories of any domain.
With this form, you can create a search engine that limits its search to
certain portions of your site (e.g., www.wiredbrain.net/).
|
WiredWiredbrain's Document Search Service
WiredBrain's
Document Search Service
Document Search Service
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
SEE ANALYSIS on how the
US
market could drop 10 % and
why
why
Cognitive dissonance:
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
A psychological state that occurs when an individual
questions an action s/he has taken and seeks reassurance that s/he has
indeed made the right decision and/or when the message and the source are
in conflict, you believe the message but don't trust the source, or trust
the source but don't believe the message.
GEORGE
SOROS:
GEORGE SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between conventional
wisdom and reality.
There is a strong epistemological argument, elaborated by Karl
Popper, in favor of the open society ( and mind ): Our understanding
is
inherently imperfect; the ultimate truth, the perfect design
for
society, ( or business, or school, or political system )
is beyond our reach
.
We must therefore content ourselves with the next best thing -- a form
of social
organization that falls short of perfection but holds itself
open to
improvement. That is the concept of the open society: a society
open to improvement.
The more conditions are changing --
and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The more conditions are changing -- and
a global economy fosters change -- the more important the
concept becomes.
A global economy is characterized not only by the free
movement of goods and services but, more important, by the
free movement of ideas and of capital. This applies to direct
investments and to financial transactions. Though both have
been gaining in importance since the end of the Second World
War, the globalization of financial markets in particular has
accelerated in recent years to the point where movements
in
exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices in various
countries are intimately interconnected
. In this respect
the
character of the financial markets has changed out of all
recognition during the forty years that I have been involved
in
them. So the global economy should really be thought of as
the
global capitalist system.
Financial markets are inherently unstable
,
and international
financial markets are especially so. International capital
movements are notorious for their boom-bust pattern. During
a
boom capital flows from the center to the periphery, but when
confidence is shaken it has a tendency to return to its source.
I
have seen many ebbs and flows and booms and busts, and
though I fully recognize that international capital markets
have
become much more institutional in character and demonstrate
much greater resilience, I cannot believe that the present
boom
will not be followed by a bust until history proves me wrong.
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact
that
our theoretical understanding of how financial
markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory
has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium
is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount
a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
.
For
instance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only
up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it
is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they
are
rational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving
target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory
of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the
future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypothetical
equilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people.
I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The risk of a breakdown is greatly increased by the fact that
our theoretical understanding of how financial markets operate
is fundamentally flawed. Economic theory has been built on the
misleading concept of equilibrium. In my view, equilibrium is
elusive because market participants are trying to discount a
future that is itself shaped by market expectations
. Forinstance, a company whose stock is overvalued can use that to
justify the inflated expectations of its shareholders, but only up
to a point. This renders the outcome indeterminate, and it is
only by accident that the actual course of events corresponds
to prevailing expectations.
Market participants, if they arerational, will recognize that they are shooting at a moving target
rather than discounting a future equilibrium.
The theory of
rational expectations makes the heroic assumption that market
participants as a group are in a position to discount the future
accurately.
That assumption may yield a hypotheticalequilibrium, but it has little relevance to actual market behavior
-- and neither market operators nor regulators have ever fully
accepted the theory, exactly because they are rational people. I
am told that economic theory has gone a long way toward
recognizing and studying disequilibrium situations.
This brings me to the most nebulous problem area, the
question of values and social cohesion. Every society needs
some shared values to hold it together
. Market values
on their
own cannot serve that purpose, because they reflect only what
one market participant is willing to pay another in a free
exchange. Markets reduce everything, including human beings
(labor) and nature (land), to commodities. We can have a
market economy but we cannot have a market society.
In
addition to markets, society needs institutions to serve such
social goals as political freedom and social justice.
There
are
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed,
the
global capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one
hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly
by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along
which spending could press too strongly against available resources to
be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces
from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting
a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices
of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing
forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he
said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
such institutions in individual countries, but not in the global
society.
The development of a global society has lagged behind
the growth of a global economy.
Unless the gap is closed, theglobal capitalist system will not survive.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan:
"We cannot rule out two worrisome possibilities. On the one hand, should the momentum to domestic spending not be offset significantly by Asian or other developments, the U.S. economy would be on a track along which spending could press too strongly against available resources to be consistent with contained inflation.
"( and), we also need to be alert to the possibility that the forces from Asia might damp activity and prices by more than is desirable by exerting a particularly forceful drag on the volume of net exports and the prices of imports," he said.
With the current situation reflecting a balance of strong countervailing forces, events in the months ahead are not likely to unfold smoothly, he said.
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
The U.S. and European equity markets have
benefited from recent reductions in cash holdings but are vulnerable to
further shocks, fund mangers told Reuters Television on Wednesday.
A number of unpleasant surprises could still be lurking including
next month's U.S. corporate earnings and a possible escalation of the stand-off
in the Middle East, they said.
Stock Market Divorcing Itself from Real Story?
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
The economy is slowing, corporate
earnings are slipping and Asia is still a time bomb just waiting to explode
again but the stock market keeps making new highs. Has Wall Street gone
nuts?
The rally is being fueled by mutual fund managers, whose trading
activity has added tremendously to the market's upward momentum.
"
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day
and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel,
senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages
$5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers
might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with
all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they
had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The fund traders have got to put their money in stocks every day and they don't get paid to build up a lot of cash," said Alfred Kugel, senior investment strategist for Stein Roe & Farnham, which manages $5 billion in mutual fund assets.
"During the events of Asia at the end of October, the fund managers might have raised their cash holdings from three to five percent, but with all the money that keeps coming into 401K and Keogh retirement plans, they had to stay invested," he said.
There's concern that the mutual funds' spectacular gains over the
last few years might be creating a false sense of confidence that the market
can only go higher.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. presidential economic
advisor Fred Bergsten said a sharp plunge of the dollar was the next crisis
likely to hit world markets after Southeast
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Asia's
financial turmoil is over.
In a statement released at the annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum here, Bergsten said short-term fundamental factors continued to favour
the dollar but long-term fundamentals were increasingly negative
.
``
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The next major disturbance to the world economy, once the world has
safely surmounted the current Asian crisis, is likely to be another sharp
plunge in the exchange rate of the dollar,'' he said.
``As always, it is impossible to predict the turning point at which
the long-term fundamentals will again dominate the short-term fundamentals,''
said Bergsten, who is director of Washington's Institute for International
Economics.
In a global economic forecast for the years 1998-2000, Bergsten said
the long-term fundamentals included U.S. trade and current account deficits,
which he said were likely to reach $250 billion to $300 billion in 1998-99.
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
``
The net debtor position of the United States, which has already
passed $1 trillion, will shortly exceed $1.5 trillion.''
``
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
There is no apparent sign of a turnaround in these trends,'' he added.
Bergsten said there were several possible scenarios for what could trigger
a dollar plunge, including a sharp slowdown of the U.S. economy or
a significant pickup in Europe.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
includes foreign markets. Factor
two is made up of currencies flow into and out of
the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which
implies movement into U.S. markets.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
The Wiredbrain
Theory of market
motion :
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
There are external and internal factors.
The external
factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours
a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then
influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
Factor
one
The external factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.
The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL.
The American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications
and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than
G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below market as measured
by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth
than the Dow Industrial.
Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively
weaker than the market as a whole. This has held down the NDX as a whole.
Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling technologies up. You
can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) drops first, then the NDX then the
market. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM
was the bell weather in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies
now forecast the market as a whole. Now what do you see ? A decline in
Intel and loss of relative strenght of Technologies, A high flying MicroSoft
( ready for a fall ) ?
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
When there is agreement - everything moving in the
same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
The final factor is built around Interest rates which
effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does
not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions
on the edge of its focus.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these
factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture
of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective
reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe
perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and
preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors,
reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
These all too human factors, reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.
The S&P 500 Wiredbrain's Index
as a SHORT TERM TIMER:
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or
better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little
more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about
75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction
is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends:
when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and
real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are
lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
NOTE A grain of salt:
The higher the score the higher the probability of
being right.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500
but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different
market forces.
The wiredbrain index score is close to points on the S&P500 but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of different market forces.
+- 15 on the Wiredbrain Index = 90 % right or better, ++10 = 75 % or better, +-6.5 is over 65 %, under 4 is just a little more than 55/45
When the Wiredbrain's Index is greater than +- 6.5,
The predicted Open ( at 9 AM) is about 90 % correct on direction, 85 %
correct on scale -
If the index is above 6.5 the predicted close is about 75 % correct in direction so positions maybe left open, above 10 the prediction is better but not as good as at the open.
Longer term direction depends on very strong trends: when Wiredbrain's Index is over +- 10 the move lasts for several days and real profits can be earned. Doesn't happen often that all the forces are lined up in the same dirrection.
If you get all the way to the end of the page - you
will be up to date on what's going on in the market. It is cut and paste
so is current but a little messy.
The system is geological, the newer stuff
is on top, older down a couple of layers.
YAHOO MARKETS
YAHOO MARKETS
UP + [ TRADE *** INDEX ]**
- DOWN After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Yahoo International not working
this moring go to
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
After-noon top
of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target SP500
1000
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on
three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target SP500
955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
NDX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
If the
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
): TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives
you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop
loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target
is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at
30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
NDX
goes down ( it's going UP with the
$SOX
$SOX
TRADE at
10:30 AM - SELL
WAKEUP
CALL
NASDAQ+100 INDEX (NDX )
WAKEUP
CALL
WAKEUP CALL
1138.81
Sell June ( covered ) Call around the strike price Selling calls gives you the advantage to earning premium earning beyond the
gain from lower NDX prices - once the position is taken but on a stop loss and a limit to buy back at some target price from 1138 the low target is about 990 and should be a nice gain on selling at 100 and buy back at 30 or so ..
NDVFN,
NDVFR,
NCZFT
at a offer price that would have to be figured - as some of the prices
are odd - odd high is OK but odd low is not.
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
Bonds UP, rates down a little, currencies stable, foreign markets
DOWN
The market is too high on individual ( small ) investors and mutual
funds cash flow - has to go down sometime - but maybe not today
- in a no news market the balance could be pushed this way or that by minor
events.
Here we go again Jakarta Composite ^JKSE
3:16AM 445.524 -42.086 -8.63% back up to 495
DJX
Index
DJX
Index
Or
OEX
Wiredbrain 21st century stocks Portfolio Index:
76 going UP to 87.8 high down to 85
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Intel
at 88 1/2 down from 94 high,
Microsoft
84 down at 82 -2.5 [split = 170 high]
Bloomberg
backup International markets:
Bloomberg backup International markets:
my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology
pulls market down ?
It is interesting if market pulls technology up or technology pulls market down ?
See
See
Backup
at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we
thought a few minutes ago:
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
Most U.S. Indexes
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
CME
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
COMM RES BUR NDX
(NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)
SOX
flat to 309
SOX
flat to 309
SOX Semiconductor Index 1071
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
NDX
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)
OTHER RESOURCES
OTHER RESOURCES
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The
altavista
search
ALL
U.S. Indexes
DJ COMMODITY NDX
131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices
going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -
^DJC
`
Updates
on Dealers
UP + [ TRADE
**** INDEX ]*- DOWN Noon
top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns
down SAFE TRADE UP
or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on ***UP target SP500
1000 Safe Trade down
or hold on two or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down
target SP500 955
Follow
the $SOX
and the
NDX
The