Use sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
A traditional book has covers, a table of
contents, chapters so is linear and fixed in time and space. An electric
book has search engines use "wiredbrain" which is not limited in content therefore is non-linear
and not fixed in time or space.
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
Keeping Track:
It’s difficult keeping track of individual stocks when the
market make large moves.
There are several markets ( variables ) that intervene
in the action of stocks. First, global markets, influenced by interest
rates, currencies, and relative price safety factors; Second, the buying
and selling of index options and futures that make movements bigger than
they would be otherwise, and only third; the acctual value and future of
companies and the industry they represent.
Looking back I have compared prices on Nov 5th with today,
Nov. 18th. Most of the portfolio held rather well.
There was a difference
between selling stocks that drop 3% on stop loss orders and buy and hold.
Buy and hold left the value of the portfolio up 14 % ( down from 20% ),
sell and buy when the S&P hit 860 gave a total return of 18 % ( down
from 20 ) doesn’t sound like much, but 3/16 = 19 % better and we were protected
from a bigger drop.
The use of options more than covered the down side
with a net cash gain ( 500% on at risk capital ) which we are now looking
to invest. ( should have done more )
Almost all the net gain are in the satellite companies
we bought in August ( up over 50 % ) the rest has been up and down and
average 10 %. Real gains comes from "industry of the future", the IBM,
Microsoft, growth companies.
The global communications industry is such
a growth sector and the owners of satellites and broadband / Wideband will
be the industrial leaders in a few years. How the others, cable companies,
telephone, Web-TV, equipment and network companies come out is less than
clear. That leaves DGII (DIGI International), DIGI ( DSC Communications),
GSTRE (Globalstar), IRIDE ( Iridium), MOT, LOR, SPOT, OMPT, SAT, TGO, TRW,
Hughes, WCOM, DT, ERICY, ALA, Philips, CQ, ORBI, ONSI, SAT and some companies
that will benefit for global services on a vast scale - Netscape ( NSCP
), Oracle, Excite (XCIT), Intel ( INTC), the noise group Sun Microsystems,
IBM.
earth stations
with super broadband wireless and cable connecting to "smart universal
modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s" for network computers and universal communications utilities including
TV.
but not clear to most reporters and observers.
This is one way to visualize what is happening.
There are a new products call Web-TV, the network computer,
advanced note books with cell phone built in, and important advances in
satellite communications, Wideband / Broadband, cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s and copper
wire telephone services.
Imagine you have a black box which provides universal
communications services: video telephone, Internet, fax, e-mail, cable
TV, regular digital TV, CD music and games, had digital storage in Zig-a-bites,
and wireless modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) in 10 Meg-bits per second or better.
The question is
who is the Service Provider ?
Imagine companies, schools, homes where instead of millions
of PC the same black box provides all the applications, data banks, on-site
and computer home workers at their work stations.
The applications programs
are downloaded with the data. A 10 Mb program takes 1 seconds to down load
the functions being used at that moment.
The program "runs" on the CPU
of the black box, not time share terminal, but is fully integrated with
the wide area network and the Internet. Who provides the software, systems
management, data storage, and where is the server ?
presentation of NT 5 + uses a NC ( Network
Computer ) he po-poed last year.
The next step is from LAN ( local networks
) to the internet. He talks PC but programs for the NC for all the good
reasons as a low cost "utility" device promoted by Larry Ellison of Oracle
for several years.
It could be the satellite companies who own the high ground
and the critical link in the whole system.
There is the fight between Alcatel
Alsthom 1/8ALSF.CN 3/8's Skybridge and Motorola's Celestri to get bands
to develop and compete against Microsoft's Teledesic, which is backed by
Boeing (BA.N). In all, the three plan to launch several hundred satellites
in 2001 and 2002.
, which would offer high-speed multi- media services
via huge networks of satellites, require access to a large amount of radio
frequency spectrum.
These connections make possible the Network
Computer
the next generation of "smart" terminals that act as telephones, e-mail,
PCs, business shops and services.
These become the first global telephone ( tele-communications
) company with direct services to companies, and local service providers.
MCI-World Com -BT- ATT - DT -Sprint have to get into the Satellite Internet
business FAST or be replaced.
They are behind using analog rather than
digital systems they should have made universal 20 years ago.
I don’t see much future for WIRE including cable after
2000, and the growth markets are in China,
The USS -was, Eastern Europe,
Latin America, which add up to double the number of users and four times
the amount traffic every 18 months at half the cost per unit. "
For
technology, analysts said the trend within Asia could move towards
the personal computer as a cheaper, commonly available product.
"Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong will probably lead
the way as far as futuristic technology into the next millennium, but I
wouldn't count out very strong IT investments in China," said Brian Kornegay,
a senior personal computer analyst at IDC. "
The GREAT industrial companies of the next century will
be tele-communications with a vast variety of "services", financial, travel,
marketing of goods, retail sales, educational, all global all around us.
This is the issue
illustrates just how dominant the computer sector of the economy
has become as technology has become increasingly advanced. .. For example,
the study found that the average wages of those who provide high-tech services
are, in Kazmierczak's words, "phenomenal," with high-tech employees earning
73 percent more, on average, than private-sector employees. Providers of
software services in particular, he said, are finding current economic
trends to be extremely favorable
Two-Day San Francisco Event Includes Internet Partners
Discussing
Convergence Strategies Third-Generation
Wideband Wireless Multimedia mobile systems.
This
technology, to debut in some world regions in the year 2000, will enable
wireless phones/terminals to deliver not only voice, but also full-motion
video, and data-intensive information such as real-time Internet access.
There is somewhere around a 37 Trillion Gross Global
Product (GGP see
futures.htm
) and somewhere around the same amount in capital. Large pools of capital
have built up in banks, insurance companies, pension funds, corporate treasuries,
and in personal savings. About 10 % or 4 trillion dollars is relatively
liquid and under "professional management". Most of these funds seek safe
reasonable returns in public and private bonds, stocks, real estate and
direct commercial investments. Any one of the global markets can be looked
at as a commodity and blocks of stocks bought and sold in bulk. Now comes
the hard part.
Since various investment packages of stocks and bonds,
in various currencies, can be looked at for their relative return and risk,
options can be bought and sold to cover the risk. Since 75 % of the capital
of US stocks are in the S&P 500, future options ( puts and calls) can
limit the risk of these investments, currency options protect the relative
value of the US dollar and interest rate futures the value of bonds. Since
billions of dollars can be traded in seconds the goal is to move fast and
freely across markets to get the best returns and defend against loss of
capital.
The synergy of this global system ( the whole is more
than the sum of the parts ) create some complex interactions described
as
forms created in systems far from equilibrium such
as Benard cells, tornados,
lasers and living things such as the U.S. Congress.
( Llya Prigogine). While global trade in stocks and bonds as commodities
has created vast pools of liquid capital it can become unstable as it has
in South East Asia and have a ripple effect around the world. No central
bank can control or even understand what is going on. A single trader can
cause the loss of billions, the fall of whole banks or investment pools.
To understand the impact of large institutional trans-market
trading one has to penetrate the logic of their strategies. (
AltaVista
Search ) Part of the strategy is reflective of what other players are
doing. It this sense it becomes a game. Fractional differences in exchange
rates, interest rates and stock prices set the game in motion. Secondary
players such as mutual fund managers, stock brokers, and third level investors
are often caught in the winds of global financial forces they can't understand.
The press is almost complete hopeless and useless. Academic economics is
using the wrong model and can't grasp the biological interactions using
the old linear industrial equations that depend on a theoretical "equilibrium"
that does not exist. Biological system do not seek "rest = death" but growth
and infiltration of niches and whatever opportunities are offered by the
environment. Biological systems are in many codependent relationships,
living systems are not battle ships at sea but an organic soup tending
toward chaos.
For the investor global markets means they have to
be prepared to use options, to sell and buy on a active basis. Investors
are sometimes treated as children who sell low due to fear and panic and
buy high being the last to jump on board.
The old 'buy and hold'
is really dumb.
The formula for success:
The start of a Bear Market ?
Return on Investments:
The base rate is under 6 % and long term ( 30 year bonds
) at 6.15 %.
The laws of physics and economics suggest that other investments
will trend to this base rate.
If someone is making more money others should get
into the business until the field is crowded and the extra bonus disappears.
There are three barriers to entry which become the laws of higher returns.
A long term higher rate of return, such as 11 % on stocks, or 20 % in technologies,
are due to:
First Law, Cartel or monopoly
prices - For a century big business in the USA was dominated by leading
firms; General Motors set up by Dupont, Edison and General Electric, Bush
in beer, American Tobacco, Borden, General Foods, etc.. International competition
makes it more difficult to get an extraordinary rate of return because
of raw market power. Microsoft is both a cartel and benefits from the second
and third laws-
Second Law: Psychological attachments
or brand names - you can sell carbonated flavored sugar water for 1000
x cost, $16 sneaker for $80, ( Nike has some third law - technology ) smart
advertising and marketing including buying shelf space; American Brands
is now getting competition from European firms and store brands. Drugs
are a special case of "brand" bonus.
Third Law: Technology and innovation can give a short
term advantage until others "catch-on".
Technical Analysis: Market was stuck in a trading range
from 870 to 980: When it goes below 900 the next "support" level is at
880 860 etc. This is why it's important to have stop loss - but when they
begin to hit it drags the market down more.
The OEX short positions will
more than cover any loss on the stock long positions, at 876.98 - 60
The
dead cat bounce on Tuesday and maybe more. TUESDAY:
CLOSE
OUT SHORT POSITIONS AT OPEN AND BUY Stocks after 860 -
BUY Bonds and dollar are strong -
OEX down from 930: call down
to 10 (+13 ): put up to 76: ( + 48 ) 1 point = $ 100
illustrates just how dominant the computer sector of the economy
has become as technology has become increasingly advanced. .. For example,
the study found that the average wages of those who provide high-tech services
are, in Kazmierczak's words, "phenomenal," with high-tech employees earning
73 percent more, on average, than private-sector employees. Providers of
software services in particular, he said, are finding current economic
trends to be extremely favorable
Thurs. Oct. 23rd ( need to make money in DOWN markets
)
European
markets responded to Hong Kong's rally in early trading. London's FTSE
100 index was up 100.30 to 5091.80. Germany's DAX was 70.76 higher at 4048.02.
The main line press has caught-on
to the power of the internet ? What wiredbrain and others ( mainly Netscape,
Oracle, ( considered to be a source of wise counsel or prophetic opinions.
b. An authoritative or wise statement or prediction ) IBM, SunMicrosystems
and the NOISE group ) have been talking about since Netscape 1.0 and WINS
connections - the virtual office and the Network Computer has now arrived
in the PC world.
"
The new concept ( only to you ) goes by a variety
of names: instant Web office; virtual office; instant intranet; Web tone;
Internet dial tone; and so on.
The idea is to provide everything a user
needs on a central server. Users can then access that server over the Internet
with just a terminal and a phone line.
Then they "rent" Internet and intranet
applications for as little as $10 to $20 per person per month. (That's
a fraction of the per-user cost of an in-house intranet.)"
and a box that cost 10 % of a PC work station (
$500 vs. $5,000 ) and doesn't crash, doesn't need systems managers, and
doesn't require constant upgrades but does need bandwidth.
What is clear but not said is this is the end of the
Age of the PC. First the main frame, then the PC now the NC -
There is now a immense industry we can call
IT “INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY”.
IT
now represents the critical
modern enterprise growing to be a quarter of all economic activity.
IT
is a greater engine
for growth than railroads in the 19th century, oil and chemical industries
in the first half of this century. IT is equal to the auto industry, which
reached 25 % in the 1950s. “IT” like the auto industry includes the hardware
( the computer or car), the infrastructure, (communications and networks
or the roads) the energy ( software or oil ) the services, ( consultants
and staff or Gas Stations ) and parts ( modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s, drives, or car radios ).
IT includes the computers ( the car ), the roads ( the telecom business
), services ( software ) and the social educational infrastructure.
IT
provides the web of
life for modern enterprise - design, production, distribution, sales, of
goods and services. IT is the growth industry and in labor market.
There
are millions of new jobs and additional people needed world wide.
Unlike the auto industry the IT business evolves quickly.
New hardware computers and chips, new methods of communications, new applications
evolve quickly. IT is quickly becoming one unified, highly complex living
system on a global basis.
The whole is more than the sum of the parts -
synergy that comes from elaborate interactions.
There are critical “flash point” - global telcom systems
based on satellites connect to earth stations that can use telephone lines
including new high bandwidth technologies, optic fiber, wireless broadband,
and cable connections.
The high bandwidth connections use improved modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s
to provide support for networks.
These new networks provide what have been
called telephones, television, personal computers, and something new -
beyond what now are common utilities.
The common base system is the “browser”, which will
provide all of the application in a Java type objects - in a Video User
Interface (VUI) using chips that can handle digital TV and Digital Hard
Drives for storage all as parts of the new super modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s.
IT is why the DOJ Microsoft case
is important. What was called the “operation system” OS now becomes VUI,
an interface between a “terminal” ( telephone, TV, and PC = NC ) and a
communications media.
The interface uses program “packets” as well as content
“packets” the
operational software is contained
within the data
.
The difference between program
and content no longer is significant. With bandwidth the “word processor”
is attached to the files and comes as an instant updated package at the
moment of use. This is Netscape’s, Oracle and others “vision” and the real
challenge to Microsoft.
We start with $1000.00 units in packages of about $250,000
with about a dozen members who share a common interest and knowledge, computers,
telecommunications, wireless et al.
The model we started in Aug. on satellites
a $1,000 unit would be $1,216.42 on stocksite ( user wiredbrain, password
"synergy") and $1224.42 on
my.excite.
We are looking for a on-line broker. Members can discuss and make recommendations
on the portfolio and buy in or out at anytime. Money goes directly to the
broker but we may need some kind of payment agent. Fee is 10 % of gain,
or $ 21 or $ 22 on the example above when sold or taken out every 60 days,
10 % of $81,000 profit on stocksite or $ 59,605 on excite. after 60 days,
then start the profit count anew from that position. An options fund could
gain or lose a lot X100 more.
user wiredbrain pasword synergy ( any more suggestions ? )
Convergence:
We need experts in these areas and how they will work
together. Who will be the winers and losers ?
As the seven technologies come together the issues become
very complex from a investment and technology viewpoint.
The critical flash
points are connections with enough power to run digital TV, a modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) with
a processor able to handle video content at 28 frames or better, ( which
then can handle traditional network functions easily ) a terminal which
can provide the applications ( office suites, on line E-commerce, video
phone and conferences, Internet information, entertainment, games, education,
et al ) and make it all mobile and cost effective to the billions of uses
world wide with China, Eastern Europe, Latin America and the USS-was as
the primary communications system .
The seven technologies are :
1.) PC’s and the chips which they NOW use and the
NEW chips that will run modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s using
Open page in editor. Save page to file. Use with password
"synergy" to put file back with your comments on any of the stock below
or add any others of interest. For more information and News Server see
WinStar Signs Agreement With Siemens Telecom Networks
and Broadband Networks For Initial Deployment of Next-Generation Telecommunications
System Business Editors and Telecommunications Industry Writers
Multipoint Service Enables Simultaneous Transmission
of Voice, Internet, Data, and Video Traffic; Optimizes Spectrum Utilization
Lower Network Costs Substantially Expand Addressable Market for Wireless
Fiber(SM) Services
WINSTAR COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (NASDAQ-WCII) announced
today it has entered into an agreement with Siemens Telecom Networks and
Broadband Networks Inc. (BNI) through which WinStar will be supplied with
digital multipoint local network systems for initial deployment in the
U.S.
The agreement culminates a year-long evaluation of next-generation
wireless local network systems by WinStar, and marks an important advance
in the field of wireless telecommunications. WinStar said its implementation
of a multipoint network architecture based on wireless access and ATM transport
and switching will provide the company with substantial cost and service
advantages as it competes with local exchange carriers across the country.
Siemens will supply systems integration and support services, and BNI will
supply digital multipoint radio access systems used in the new network
architecture.
A multipoint network, also known as a point-to-multipoint
or a multiple point-to-point network, enables a single radio and antenna
at a hub location to communicate with many remote radios located within
a cluster of buildings.
The hub unit can send and receive unique transmissions
to and from each remote radio, or send and receive transmissions that are
common to a number or all of the remote radios. This is in contrast with
the point-to-point technology also being used by WinStar which requires
a separate hub site radio for each remote radio communicating with the
hub.
The company is planning to begin offering the new multipoint service
during the fourth quarter of 1997.
The eventual full-scale deployment of WinStar's multipoint
service will benefit the company and its customers in several important
ways:
1. Network deployment costs should be substantially
reduced, with costs per equivalent T-1 circuit declining significantly
below current levels. Costs to manage WinStar's network of Wireless Fiber
links should also be lowered.
2. WinStar's 38 GHz spectrum licenses can be utilized
even more efficiently. Multipoint technology makes it possible for a single
100 MHz channel to support OC3 (155 Mbps) data rates and higher, three
times that of current point-to- point technology.
3. WinStar will now be able to allocate customers additional
bandwidth on a real-time basis. This "bandwidth-on- demand" feature will
bolster WinStar's ability to tailor its services to the varying needs of
customers generating voice, data, video and Internet traffic.
4. More efficient spectrum utilization and reduced
operating costs should enable WinStar to serve a far greater number of
business customers. Over time, this technology may evolve to the point
where Wireless Fiber services can be offered to single family residential
customers as well.
Full-scale deployment of the multipoint service could
begin during the first half of 1998. Financial terms of the agreement were
not disclosed, although WinStar said it negotiated an agreement that was
non-exclusive, and that did not commit the company to a specific level
of purchase volume beyond the initial deployment scheduled for later this
year.
Commenting on today's announcement, William J. Rouhana,
Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of WinStar, said, "We believe
the combination of Siemens' world class telecommunications integration
expertise with the BNI Reunion digital multipoint technology is one of
the most cost-effective, feature-rich solutions available today, and we
look forward to introducing it to the marketplace.
The deployment of our
multipoint Wireless Fiber service will provide a very substantial competitive
advantage as we strive to bring WinStar customers an unprecedented level
of flexibility and service in satisfying their telecommunications requirements.
In the near future, multipoint technology will permit our customers to
choose service offerings that include fixed or variable rate data communications,
broadband multimedia capabilities, high- speed Internet access, native
LAN to LAN connections, video conferencing and distance learning.
These
services are further enhanced by the information offerings of our New Media
subsidiary, making WinStar the first provider of an integrated voice, data
and information network."
Rouhana went on to say that the lower infrastructure
costs for multipoint radios further assure the adequacy of WinStar's capital
resources for completing its national network. "Declining costs to deliver
Wireless Fiber services should ultimately translate into an even more compelling
offering to customers and improved returns to our shareholders," said Rouhana.
"Coupled with the fact that multipoint technology makes the allocation
of our 38 GHz spectrum even more efficient than today, the lower costs
and other advantages afforded by this enhanced service will help WinStar
remain on a course of innovation and high growth."
WinStar Communications, Inc. is a national local communications
company, serving business customers, long distance carriers, fiber-based
competitive access providers, mobile communications companies, local telephone
companies, and other customers with broadband local communications needs.
The company provides its Wireless Fiber(SM) services using its licenses
in the 38 GHz spectrum.
The company also provides long distance and information
services.
Siemens Telecom Networks (formerly Siemens Stromberg-
Carlson), headquartered in Boca Raton, Fla., is a leading provider of telecommunications
equipment to the public network service providers in North America.
Groups ADSL / HDSL Fax, Voice, Video Internet Access
Providers Local Area Networking Remote LAN Access Telecommunications Wide
Area Networking Wireless
WAVO
- Means they have buyers waiting..look at the charts by clicking stock
or open second browser. All these charts are OK but don't chase fast rising
stocks, GSTRF and TOSCO for example.. MOT has a nice down with a good looking
upside.. we don't know about ASND much hated so maybe good,
LONDON - Electricity companies may become the latest providers
of telephone and Internet services to your home.
Forget separate lines from telephone or cable companies:
you might talk and send computer data at high speed via existing power
cables -- the same lines that supply electricity to your washing machine
and fridge. Britain's Norweb Communications, part of United Utilities,
and Canada's Northern Telecom, however, appear to have developed a new
technology to speed things up considerably.
NT NORTHERN TELECOM LTD NYSE 112 5/16
Alcatel Alsthom (NYSE: ALA) and includes Loral Space
& Communications Corp., a leading U.S. satellite company, as a partner.
The SkyBridge system is based on a constellation of
64 low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellites, which will deliver global connectivity
to business and residential users with a performance similar to terrestrial
broadband technologies (downstream speeds of up to 60 Mbps, with up to
two Mbps on the return link). SkyBridge will be an ideal platform for the
provision of real-time, highly interactive services such as high-speed
Internet access, telecommuting, videoconferencing, and interactive entertainment
services.
options
measure of the SPX 905 at 903.65 is for the near option the difference
between the Call premium and the put, i.e
.sxblt the Dec 900 call = 51-3.68/905 and the .sxbxt Dec
900 put = 37+3.68/905 (.052 -.045) = + [.007 % x 100] sqr = .84 %
One idea in a stuck market is to sell both the call and
the put and buy one 30 off price i.e. sell 900 and buy call at 870 and
sell 900 put and buy put at 930
OEX
( S&P 100 ) OEX is at 862.11 has better prices than SPX (S&P
500 )
CALL Dec 860 at 53-2.11= 50.9/862 = .06
PUT Dec 860 at 35.375+2.11= 37.5/862 = .044
( .06 - .044 )=.016 x100 sqr = 1.26 % up
the Dec 860 call OEXLL at 53 ( sell ) and buy 900 .OEXLT
call at 24 spread of 28
sell dec 860 dec put OEXXL at 35 3/8 and buy .OEXXD 820
at 24 3/4 ( spread of 10)
THURS OCT 30
P= [
GLOBEX
+F )/2 + [Ox100]sqr where P is the S&P 500 for first hour
F = foreign Markets and O is options
[ -1.088 + - 2.723 )= -3.81/2 = - 1.9 + .45 = - 1.4 %
x 919 = 14 points down or 905 on the close ! It was 903 ( close )
G = Actual-Market/Actual i.e 919-909/919= - 1.088 %
It better to avoid big stocks that are involved in
options and/or index short sales. Options allow up to 100X the gains or
loses so are interesting but need constant care and attention. It is also
the reason the market will go up again as people try to cover their short
positions.
Last Sale Net Bid Ask Vol Open Int Last Sale Net Bid
Ask Vol Open Int
Latest News - Earnings/Forecasts - Market Guide - Nelson's
Research Charts - Baseline Co. Profiles - Sec Filings - Zacks Reports Last
Sale Time Last Sale Net Chg % Chg Size of Last Sale Open High Low
10/8 11 7/8 -11/16 -5.5% 300 12 15/16 13 11 9/16
Volume (in 000) Bid Ask Size of Bid & Ask 52-Wk
High 52-Wk Low Volatility P/E Ratio 1,258 11 7/8 11 15/16 31x18 13 5 5/8
57.82 -10.60
EPS Shares Outstanding (in 000) Market Cap (millions)
Div. Freq Ex-Div. Date Div. Amt Yield Exch -1.12 16,346 194.11 None N/A
0.00 0.0 NASD
WAVO is a developer and provider of proprietary products
and services for high-speed data broadcasting systems for distributing
digital data via existing television, radio and satellite broadcast infrastructures
and the Internet. For the 6 months ended 6/30/97, revenues rose 6% to $9.2M.
Net loss applic. to Common totalled $13.8M, up from $6M. Results reflect
increased Newscast service subscribers, offset by a $6M purchased R&D
charge.
PRN 10/08 21:22 Microsoft to Include WavePhore's WaveTop
Software in Windows 98
The Image is that between now and next year up to 15
million cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s will be added to home systems.
connect the world. In the US, each
of the 7 RBOCs and GTE are testing Internet access via Digital Subscriber
Lines. If competition closes in, twisted pair
Bell Atlantic was expected to have
9 million viewers in a few years. Instead it lost $500 million.
The Tele-TV
shutdown caused more than a hickup. A billion dollar contract with Thompson's
settops and CAI's wireless cable operations may be affected. Apparently
Video-On-Demand lacked only video and demand.
We make suggestions - you are expected to check with
other sources - but we make you aware of opportunities others overlook
-
There are several markets that are different but affect
each other.
First, traditional enterprises that earn income to
share with investors - an alternative to bonds.
Second, growth sectors where investors are interested
in Capital Gains - a subset of these are venture, new enterprises - others
are where the management is smart and fast and can invest by research,
by merger or by joint adventures.
We search for opportunities in the growth industry
of the 21st century - We have done well enough that there is
"blow-back" - because we call attention, of certain investment professionals,
to certain stocks they go up .. that's OK - it's the self fulfilling premise,
the promise that will be fulfilled in opposition to hype and hope.
INVESTORS HAVE to wait awhile
The
Stock Markets (vs. a market of stocks)
TRADERS can cash-in as the word gets around
Since knowledge = information + understanding does
not move at the speed of light, traders that move quickly can gain short
term profits by being in the right places at the right time.
The service cost $1000.00 per year for individuals,
$1000 a month for firms that redistribute the information. You get E-mail
notices when there is something to say. A least once a week. As we get
a track record the fees go up to new members.
The value of the service
is only maintained if the subscription base is small. Mail a check and
your e-mail address. After 30 days and you are not very happy, 100 % of
the money is returned, no questions asked. After 60 days 75 %, after 90
days 50 %. After 120 days 25 %.
Internet Explorer 4.0 and the rise and fall of empires:
Humans with knowledge and the right attitudes "catch-on"
to the uses of new tools. New technology drives the production and distribution
of wealth from the plow, horse stirrup, clock and telescope. Groups with
the best tools and the will to apply knowledge to winning will take over
from those with older less productive methods. UP_GRADE is the sign of
empire. France and England were up-grades from Spain - British long bow
brought down the French Knights, British cannon were better since they
had a longer range.
They could stay out of range of the Spanish Armada
and destroy their enemies just like B1’s in Desert Storm.
BUT, success leads to excess -
Newer faster competition begins to take over, England
from Spain, Microsoft from IBM now the MS empire is cracking. Successful
Empires become too complex, too hard to manage and have to decentralize.
The domination of markets creates its own corrections and countermining
forces. GM marketed the big, wasteful self destroying auto, IBM tied users
into a network of proprietary systems, big business has always taken advantage,
why not ? Because the market will make a correction, sooner or later, along
come cars that don’t break down after 30,000 miles, along come PC to overtake
main frames. Now along comes the consumer computer to replace the hopeless
complexity of Explorer 4.0 and Windows !
Big companies can learn new tricks.
They have the facilities
to develop complex expensive technologies. However, more and more senior
people can take the hot new systems and run.
Start-up are break-off
100’s of new enterprises come from IBM people, dozens
from Zerox, scores from AT&T and Bell Labs, and University Research
Centers have produced whole new industries, Bio-tech for example.
The rewards
of break-off are much greater than staying aboard. When the best and brightest
are going to start up it changes the future of enterprise. 3M, TRW and
some other firms have developed internal enterprises. Markets and profits
are much higher for the spin-offs and break-offs
Over-values
Long term earning on investments are about 6% ( 50%
inflation) or 1/.06 = 16.6 Earning E/MV Market Prices =total value of all
shares
(6 in total MV) Microsoft Earning at 3.5 billion E/MV
Market Value at 150 billion = 1/2.3% = E/MV=45
Others include (3rd in MV) Coca-Cola, (rank of MV=
28) PepsiCo, (MV rank 38) Gillette, (MV-R 35) Disney, the past growth is
NOT a guide to the future !
Under-valued
(MV-R30) AT&T, 6b or 4 b ? earning/67b or 71 b
market price=1/10% = 10 to 15 ?
other under-valued big caps: (MV-R66) GM 12 %, (MV-R54)
Ford 9.7%, (MV-R29) Unilever 8.7%,
Market today about 1/3.4% 30 to 1/5% = 20 a average
or mean of 1/4% =E/MV=25
The big by stock values: (MV Rank=1) GE 7.2 earn/214.5
MV= 1/3.4%= E/MV= 29
(MV-R2) Royal Dutch Shell 9.4 E/177.5 MV= 1/5.2= 19
Members get a reasonable number of special reports
on stocks of interest.
Then they are prepared at $75.00 per hour or flat
fees for standard reports that will be announced. If we can use the private
report as a standard report ( after 10 days ) the fees are lower.
Aug
5th ....in one day with a flat market.. next few days in a down market
.... OUR PICKS for Aug:
Iridium
IRIDF at 28 7/8 to 30 3/8 to 40 1/4 *** VERY GOOD
Orbital
Sciences ORBI at 20 7/16 *** 22 5/8 GOOD
Globalstar
GSTRF 35 to 37 to 40 7/8 *****VERY Good
STOCK
Watch: up 20 % since Aug 5th user wiredbrain, password "synergy"
http://www.stocksite.com/
Sept 16th
GENERAL
INSTRUMENT SEPARATES INTO THREE NEW PUBLIC CoMPANIES ( Sept. 16th)
On
July 28, 1997, General Instrument separated into three public companies.
NextLevel
Systems, Inc. (NYSE: NLV), @ $ 18.75 a leading worldwide supplier of systems
and components for high-performance communications networks delivering
video, voice and Internet/data services
NetChannel
uses the Internet to personalize television so viewers can have fun, stay
informed, learn, communicate and shop using a television. NetChannel organizes
the vast resources of the Internet by creating channels of programming
personalized for each member of the household based on their individual
preferences. In addition, viewers have access to full Internet functionality,
including a Web browser, e-mail, placemarks, newsgroups, bulletin boards,
chat, secure electronic commerce, and search.
cable
industry hopes to have cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) services available to 4.5 million
households across Canada and the United States. Remember, though, that
there are already some 23.1 million Internet users in the United States
alone, so these services are still a fairly limited portion of the market.
Detail of the
TRW Inc ( 54 11/16 ) has plans to build a $3.4bn satellite system that
it claims will carry more data than the all the world's undersea cables,
with a total capacity of 1.3 terabits of bandwidth.
The proposed system
includes a number of ground stations, 15 Medium Earth Orbit satellites,
and four geostationary satellites. TRW has submitted an application to
the Federal Communications Commission, in response to a request for licensees
of a new range of satellite frequencies in the 37.5GHz to 50GHz range.
The FCC is accepting proposals until September 26, and accepted tenders
will then have to negotiate for the exact allocation of frequencies. This
could be a long process, taking up to three years, according to TRW.
The Cleveland, Ohio-based company has tendered for
the license independently, and plans to build the satellites, ground stations
and organize launches without the aid of partners.
However, if its application is successful TRW will
be looking for multimedia and communications companies and large corporates,
to use and invest in the system.
The system is comparable to the Skybridge
proposal by the Alcatel Espace division of Alcatel Alsthom SA with a 64-satellite
global telecommunications network due to be in operation by 2001 (CI No
3,129). Both services are offering similar applications, and aim to provide
'trunking' services to companies; high bandwidth satellite links that can
be used like international fiber optic cables.
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Peter's Portfolio Wednesday, October 22, 1997 9:03AM
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| Biggest Gainers | Biggest Losers
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Enter ticker symbol(s): Lookup symbol Modify portfolios
Symbol Last Change Vol (K) Day Range Time $Change Value
More info wiredbrain Cash $0.00 Nasdaq 1712.540 +27.090 (1.61%) N/A 1685.410
- 1712.900 Oct 21 News Dow 8060.440 +139.000 (1.75%) N/A 7921.440 - 8063.870
Oct 21 News S&P 500 972.280 +16.670 (1.74%) N/A 956.110 - 972.560 Oct
21 News
ALA 26.812 -0.188 (-0.69%) 537.7 26.688 - 27.062 Oct
21 $562.50 $26,812.50 News, Charts, Intraday LONG TERM HOLD
BUY
BellSouth and Ascend to Co-Market Remote Access
Solutions; Companies Team Up to Provide End-to-End Frame Relay and ATM
Solutions to Corporate Customers
PRMS 28.938 +0.250 (0.87%) 393.8 28.688 - 29.500 Oct
21 $-69.25 $2893.75 News, Charts, Intraday (PRMS) Big Wedding of Access
Networks the Talk of NCF97
BUY
QCOM 63.938 +0.062 (0.10%) 848.7 63.375 - 65.000 Oct
21 $-306.25 $6393.75 News, Charts, Intraday long term hold
SAT 25.750 0.000 (0.00%) 0.7 25.750 - 25.812 Oct 21
$-143.80 $2575.00 News, Charts, Intraday
SBC 65.000 +0.938 (1.46%) 809.1 63.750 - 65.125 Oct
21 $550.00 $6500.00 News, Charts, Intraday long term hold
XCIT 30.688 -1.250 (-3.91%) 405.2 30.000 - 32.750 Oct
21 $1331.25 $3068.75 News, Charts, Intraday long term hold
Total $9678.90 $107,540.34 (+25.22%) $533,963.44
H 52 week high, Quotes delayed 20 minutes
News (Oct 22 6:48AM)
Business News Stocks Surge on Earnings Reports Netscape
Earnings Up Intel Settlement Possible Borland Reports Small Q2 Profit CNET
Has Weak Quarter Record Sales for Hershey US Jobs Grow Strongly Trade Shadows
China Talks Another TV Network? Ex Calif. Bank Workers Charged more business
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