Surplus Product:

The fault in free market capitalism is the historic issue of over production. The motivation of capitalism is to gain a higher return on investment (ROI) than the going rate of return. A functional capital market will increase investment in sectors that are “hot” until it is over done. Since there is a delay between decisions and the ROI people invest today on the expectation of returns tomorrow. Using historical data is always misleading and can not be true a discount of current value vs. future ROI. There will be more houses, cars, structured investment instruments, etc. than the market can absorb as supply out run effective demand.

The modern discount system escalate the boom and bust effects. A million dollars in mortgages is turned into certificates that generate additional money to fund more home loans that then are used as assets to borrow more money until one dollar becomes ten. When the million dollars in bonds have to be repaid or lose their market value it takes ten million dollars out of the pool so the virtuous cycle becomes a malevolence cycle. It is similar danger as buying on margin.

The monetary policy is to drop interest rates to make ROI easier. The government pump primes by borrowing money and spending it. The scale has to be right – too little too late will not work. As in taking antibiotics you need to get a big dose and finish the course of treatment or the disease will return in a more virulent form. The political system has to be able to act and decisively or it won’t work. Peter Druker’s theory was that war was the only way democracies could dispose of the surplus property by shooting it at foreign enemies. Workers are paid to produce the good of war but nothing enters the civil supply chain. Democracies have a hard time collecting taxes and run surpluses when the economy over heats because human desires are endless and politicians get elected by buying voters with public programs.

A real reserve fund is the solution – save during the seven good years so you have resources in the rainy day.

The central issue from the 17th century forward, is the shift from the rule of established authorities by a established land owning ruling class of king and church to a capitalist and republican form of government. The empirical issue is the nature of mass publics. In “Reflections on the revolution in France” by Edmund Burke and in Alexis de Tocqueville “Democracy in America” explored the question if a mass society could be stable without a responsible ruling class or aristocracy. A very interesting analysis of mass psychology in the Century of the Self and the power of propaganda is a remarkably eloquent series from BBC 4 and director Adam Curtis which explores the influence of Freudian psychoanalysis and Edward Bernays’ PR techniques in shaping western mass media, politics and consumer culture. Political sales use the same methods as other products - the frame or image that connects to emotional attachments (the hook) - cars make you powerful and sexy - tooth paste makes you happy - fast food make for good families - you need to find the real message which is mostly in the pictures - Below the threshold of conscious perception by the use of stimuli adequate to produce subconscious awareness and able to evoke a emotional response: subliminal propaganda.

The issue over the last few centuries and today and in the campaign for democracy today is the problem of the unlikely trust placed in ordinary people – are they a mass of unconscious desires and hidden motivation aroused by the market managers, elitists and the media or are they sovereign individuals endowed by their creator with reason and citizen with rights. Is it Rush or Jefferson? Clearly both are true and important depending on education, the civic culture, the balance between mythology, superstition, and pure reason given the economic conditions.

This years selection of President have this in the background – can people, the great unwashed, the masses take charge of their own affairs – can there be a government of the people, for the people and by the people or is this a fairy tale – and grand illusion?

According to General Semantics, cognitive sciences, it’s the frame STUPID! The frame is the network of associations that spring from the sub-conscientious with the brand.

Obama has a brand of hope and change – a people lost in the wilderness about to cross to the holy land. The collection of tribes of all the people lost in the dessert looking across to the promised land of milk and honey. The leader is a guide and prophet, a coach getting the team into the supper bowl.

Clinton is the good mother or sheep herder taking care of her children or sheep. The sheepherder will provide – health care, financial stability, jobs, welfare, prosperity, world peace, the whole laundry list of democratic promises. The focus is on HER, me, I, the government, the process, and in material benefits of voting.

The Republican image of the strict father offer security and freedom from reason. The people is to follow and believe and not question authority. Ditto Heads…

Democracy in America:

There are some popular myths about the nature of the American civilization. The nation was a child of enlighten not a Christian revival. The Deists and Freemasons who organized the “committees of public safety” and created the propaganda that let to the “rebellion of the American Colonies” and was all about CHANGE. The established order of CHURCH, KING, and State was gothic v. the modern world which was rational, logical as opposed to faith based doctrine based on tradition and authority. The idea that people could manage their own affairs depended on people being sensible, not driven by superstitions, and passions. The people must have a higher sense of the common good and see beyond just personal, regional, racial, ethic, class or religious prejudices. The “people” were property owners and educated. The masses were not to be trusted. Without the balance of power, public education, and a stable middle class Imperial tyranny would be replaced by the rule of the mob.

If Mr. Edwards wants to change “the system” he will have to convince the states to call a constitutional convention to redesign the balance of power. The system we have has been successful designed to prevent Democracy because popular rule would endanger civil liberties and state sovereignty – Democracy only requires majority rule within a parliamentary system. The American design was to prevent the state from doing much, for better or worse. The balance of power design was there because the founding fathers did not trust the people or majorities that would abolish slavery, over tax or regulate, tax trade to the disadvantage of one region or industry or another. Our limited democracy is another result of our original sin of slavery.

States are suffering from a real "double whammy" in the current economic slowdown, which has reduced revenues sharply (especially in the many states that depend mainly on retail-sensitive sales tax collections), while boosting demands on state programs aimed at helping people who are unemployed or living in or near poverty -- particularly the Medicaid program, the top expenditure category in nearly every state.  A majority of states, moreover, have constitutional or statutory prohibitions on deficit spending, so shortfalls much be closed quickly.  The new responsibilities states are already beginning to face for homeland security and increased law enforcement generally will not help the fiscal picture at all.

http://www.neweconomyindex.org/states/strategies.html

Since recessions follow booms as winter follows summer maybe we should expect down turns and make plans. This is called counter cycle activity - the most natural approach is to have reserves, saving which can be called into play when needed - such as some states, countries, firms and individual have a rainy day funds because it will rain. Now it is harder to fix the roof when it is raining but it still needs to be fixed.

Since states and local government (utilities, communications and other firms)  make the problem worse by cutting back during recessions - the federal reserves should help hold up their expenditures up - http://www.wiredbrain.net/salestax.htm thereby demand, income and reelection.

Since increasing federal debt raises interests rates and creates long term problems for social security - a off budget debt and payback scheme will help better than traditional deficits - the states and local governments pay back the loans with a federal sales tax on the internet - states and local governments give up their claims and a flat national rate is added to interstate sales - In good times the money is used to build up reserves (actual investments in CD's, state and local bonds, foreign bonds, index funds, as well as treasuries)  in down turns it is used to prime the old pump. The same could be done with SS trust funds, highway TRUST funds, water and waste management, airports, utilities, communications, pipelines, grids, et al) The NRA (National Reserves Administration) could have trillions ready to pump into a sagging economy without increasing long term debt and actually could be making money on investments.

If you want more of something you support it, if you want less you tax it. We tax work, income and investments - we support debt with equity loan credits. We should support work, savings and investments and tax consumption and be neutral on debt. Sales taxes are regressive so they have to include redistribution programs. If everyone over the middle (median) income paid taxes at .5 of each percentage over the middle 50 % - from 1% to a high of 25 % - the 75th percentile would pay 12.5 % then each income could be adjusted for sales taxes with credits. To encourage savings and retirement those below 50% would get supports those over 50 % get credits - the same for health insurance, and other payroll protections, unemployment, disability, and old age insurance.

If the person in the middle (50 percentile) pays 15 % in payroll taxes - then those over would pay more and those under would pay less. The benefits for the poor would be supported from sales taxes - the richer would get credits on their income tax for having more saving, better retirement, and health care - as they do now with IRA and other tax free saving and health insurance, the poor would have matching funds - save two dollar we match it with one - scaled by percentile income group - those at the bottom get 100% benefit - those in the middle none. (benefits reduce 2 X each percentile) - at 25th percentile benefits are down 50 % - get it?

This IRA would help the retirement and health care crisis with private accounts, insurance and savings - Real reserve funds will keep us out of recessions, promote growth, government revenues and save the nation. Any questions?

GO TO Reserves

GO TO Taxes and reserves

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From a labor intensive to a capital intensive economy:

On the president’s desk and wall: 

Things to do today – and every day; 

Domestic Master List

1.)         It’s the economy STUPID

2.)         Education

3.)         Prescription drug benefit

4.)         Trade authorization

5.)         Defense modernization 

International Master list

1.) It’s the Middle East STUPID

2.) Trade Authorization

3.) Immigration

4.) Call Tony Blair

5.) Call the UN ambassador 

1.)         A.) It’s your fault no matter what you say. B.) Get advice from people who actually know something, you must leave political and ideological issues aside. The economy is too important to leave to old belief systems and talk show hosts and party hacks. The Republican party in the 1920, Herbert Hoover, et al were captive to conventional beliefs common at the time and almost universally accepted and almost completely wrong, high tariffs to protect domestic jobs, fiscal policy of balanced budgets, little federal intervention in the market which they believed and according to economic theory would correct themselves. The political result was to have democratic majorities for more than half a century. YOU can be the Hoover of your time, alter all he was smarter than you are.

2.)         The other side had little new to offer but won a landslide. The New Deal grew in place and was not the result of an ideology, only the desire to do something NOW and throw the bums out. The Republican Party is now captive to old beliefs common at this time, Keynesian pump priming and almost universally accepted and maybe wrong because we are not a 1932 economy. Since new and clear thinking is needed for a 2001 economy, you have to ask smart, honest, non-patrician experts for a range of ideas and suggestions, starting with Wall Street types such as Mr. Rubin. The concept of direct public investment in new technologies (using reserves rather than debt) is a new idea.

3.)         New technologies are the engines of growth, productivity, high incomes, wealth, government revenues, public private partnerships, and party fortunes in the near and long term future. Energy, transportation, communications, defense, health, environment, forests, farms, appliances, and 1001 other new business, applications, investments can be started at a time when the private market is depressed and in shock.

4.)         Education, retirement and health are the critical to urban and suburban non-ideological voters so who ever does more gets more – just talk is not good enough.

5.)         Call in a few dozen of the top brass in the military and tell them to shape up or ship out. If they want to be in the modern military they have to accept modern technology and thinking. Conventional units need to be reduced at least 15% a year – starting with the oldest bases, tanks, planes, ships and generals. New fully modern electronic battlefield brigades need to be in place next year. Old stuff can be sent to the reserves, given away or sold to NATO in Eastern Europe, mothballed or junked. New weapons and technology will stimulate the domestic economy so get with the message – Star Wars is just an abstractions and a distraction.

6.)         Be a responsible grown-up member of the world community. Talking and dealing with all kinds of people on all kinds of issues doesn’t mean giving in or being a push over. We have gone from being the indispensable nation to being dispended with and ignored. Global problems require global solutions and common action – population, poverty, instability, corruption, will not respect borders, fences, gated communities, but must be faced and worked on.

7.)         The Israeli, Palestine issue requires solution both sides will not like and peace has to be imposed because they clearly cannot settle the issue among themselves. The Arab nations have to take responsibility for the West Bank and Gaza, and Israel has to remove the settlements, Jerusalem is partly internationalized etc. and only USA (with the EU) can impose such a peace.

Changing the subject (from deficits to action) and appear bold and creative rather than reactive and confused. 

When faced with unfavorable circumstances such as the budget crisis, it is wise to change the subject. The “new” supply side argument is that the public sector needs to be involved in the capital markets as well as labor markets. The consumer, thus far, has been spending, even if it is on the old never-never. The problem is in capital investments. Tax credits, lowing the capital gains tax will help but the state has to get directly involved as it did in the 1930’s with labor markets now in capital markets. The NRA or Federal Reserves Administration should be out there helping the capital markets just like the WPA and PWA helped the labor markets.

“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Little else rules indeed the world. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” Lord Maynard Keyes, the British economist, who at the time he wrote was of course focused on unemployment. In a book only slightly less difficult than the "General Theory of Revivify" or Quantum Mechanics, he suggested an expanded role of government to use proposed new high level of sponsored programs of labor-intensive projects involving deficit spending to relieve unemployment. The economic crisis of the time being a result of insufficient consumer spending but now the economic crisis is a capital crisis not an employment issue. He therefore, advocated deficit spending by governments to stimulate economic activity he may well now suggest a wide program of public investment to deal with a capital psychological crisis. There is no lack of capital as there was no lack of labor. The problem is fear and uncertainty. The answer is hype and hope to capital markets to unleash the “animal spirits” of investors.  

As he said, “The social object of skilled investment should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelope our future. The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.” 

The issue today is capital, investor’s animal spirits, their willing to venture into the unknown with great amounts of money. The new supply side is venture capital and new technologies, not tax rates, or pump priming in the traditional sense. 

Since we are capital intensive economy the federal participation needs focus on capital markets. The engine of growth is new technology and governments can invest and stimulate new industries. Defense modernization involving war fighting electronic systems, space, communications, energy, transportation, health, education, all offer grand vistas of hope and hype. What is needed is to change the subject from limitations, scarce resources, and small futures to grand vistas and renewed hopes. SO change the subject: 

Real tax reform with consumption taxes – since consumption is not the problem taxes should shift from investment, savings and income to consumption –and reform allows for real simplification and reform.  

A real national reserve accounts and trust funds – encouraging investments in alternative energy, power distribution, air travel facilities, space based defense systems, (smaller and more bite than tail) CD’s, mortgage backed securities, index funds, venture capital at the universities and national laboratories, medical applications, promoting new ideas and ventures. 

I have it!

The answer to how the budget surplus would not be a drag but an economic stimulus. The creation of the NRA – (not the National Recovery Administration) but the National RESERVES administration – and the entire surplus would be transferred to this agency to use as the best economics establish according to current and projected conditions. 

Mortgage backed bonds – lower rates and increase construction and work

State and local bonds – for public works – more jobs (includes airport construction)

Bank Certificates of deposit – lower borrowing costs by increasing bank reserves

Index Funds – support stock prices and encourage private investments

Corporate Bonds – lowers rates and increases capital spending

Utility Bonds – energy supply and distribution

Foreign bonds – to help the balance of payments

Thereby, the surplus would stimulate economic growth rather than be a drag. In better times the NRA would reduce public debt and interest payments while actually hold income-producing securities. In the long run this will allow the state to met its obligations, reduce taxes, and main stability. 

Even the 150 billion from next year would be a big start. The NRA would be housed in the Federal Reserve, have a long term overlapping boards, report to the trust fund managers (social security, civil service, military pensions, highway and airport trust funds, et al ) they would hire conservative fund managers, and have a executive board of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and public members that report to congress and the President.

If the national government had a few trillion in Reserves then in hard times it could pump prime without increasing the debt. It could fund projects on a pay back basis when things are better. A simple but powerful idea is the most useful long term policy for modern government.  The management of economics would be much better is the state had real saving and reserves to use as a rainy day fund.

Center - Left or Center Right ?

Reflections on the British election. Where does the labor, new labor, social democrats, conservatives, nationalist, and hard right groups play out on the Anglo American European global political scene.

There is a striking themes that is transatlantic and also applied to the much of European politics over the last 50 years and getting stronger. It must be the global economy, stupid ! Politics follows class economics - how people earn a living, occupational realities - education is so important because of the global economy and the role played by firms and nations. As the society changes so does the political culture - now on a global scale.

1930’s Class conflict - does Capitalism work ? Social Democrats

1940’s GI Joe - Churchill - FDR - defend the system for better or worse

Winston Churchill (Cl) 1940-1945 then Labour Governments

Clement Attlee (La) 1945-1951

Franklin Delano Roosevelt Dem. Born 1882,

33 Harry S. Truman Dem. Born 1884,

( C or Rep ) 1950’s

The Man in the Grey Flannel Suit - Corporate culture

Sir Winston Churchill (C) 1951-1955

Sir Anthony Eden (C) 1955-

Harold Macmillan (C) 1957-1963

and Dwight David Eisenhower Rep. Born in 1890

( La or Dem ) 1960’s Counter Culture - who rules what Empire ?

35 John Fitzgerald Kennedy Dem. Born 1917

Sir Alec Douglas-Home (C) 1963-1964

Harold Wilson (La) 1964-1970

36 Lyndon Baines Johnson Dem. Born 1908

( Mixed ) 1970’s Stagflation - decline in Productivity and confidence

37 Richard Milhous Nixon Rep. Born 1913,

38 Gerald Rudolph Ford Rep. Born 1913,

39 Jimmy (James Earl) Carter Dem. Born 1924,

Edward Heath (C) 1970-1974

Harold Wilson (La) 1974-1976

James Callaghan (La) 1976-1979

( C or Rep ) 1980’s Bonfires of the Vanities ( Boom and Bust ) Markets

Margaret Thatcher (C) 1979-1990

John Major (C) 1990

40 Ronald Reagan Rep. Born 1911,

41 George Bush Rep. Born 1924,

( New L or New Dem ) 1990’s Bill Gates and Bill Clinton - productivity

and Tony Blair failed Conservative revival

2000’s Finding the Global Center -

In this era of relative calm in social economic and geo-political conflict the only politics is in the center. Small ideological groups hang on to old ideas from old conflicts about socialism, capitalism, democracy, liberty, equality and collectivist vs. individualist values none are really salient.

The real issues are business like administrative and economic policy for growth and prosperity. Who can provide well run government for a well run society. Boring delivery issues, organizational issues, and policy based on benefit / cost analysis.

Vague value issues overwhelm policy issues when the material and class issues are mute.

The people who became involved in the "counter culture", environmental and new age thinking ( Clinton ) vs. the return to fundamentals and social conservatives ( Bush ).

These general attitudes become the context for issues like energy, defense policy, regulation, social policy - where the Right is defending the culture of the 1950’s - old style capitalism and corporate domination.

The Left came out of the culture of the 1960’s and is often out of context and disconnected from their material interests.

Religious Right attacks a state that is acting in their favor and refuses to support their own benefits - public education, social and medical services, environmental and worker health, civil rights, sound public finance - low interests rates

while liberals seem to want to tax themselves and run up public expenditures beyond what is prudent in order to provide universal benefits poorly provided and very expensive - such as a general prescription drug benefit on Medicare.

The future belongs to the boring center - left and right - practical, marginal, prudent - with low turn out.

Let’s get organized:

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

A pro-business government could be good for everyone. A educated labor force increases productivity, lowers the cost of doing business, and makes both workers and companies better off. Prosperous people and firms can contribute to public "investments" in infrastructure - communications, transportation, the rule of law and justice, that increases productivity and the general welfare. A healthy population lowers the overhead of insurance. Well managed plans for retired workers can increase saving and investment, help consume surplus production and lower pension costs.

If all public programs - science and technology - regulation - conservation and environmental protection - can be useful to economic growth and welfare.

There is no fundamental conflict between owners and labor - they both benefit from well run enterprise - productivity and creativity - there is no basic conflict between environment and business because efficiency is good and it’s a good business to set reasonable regulation that reduces transfer costs.

The question is not the size of government but its quality, efficiency, productivity, and contribution to the general welfare.

The federal government ( and almost any government ) should be organized along functional lines. This will help in knowing what it is doing, what it should be doing and with what effect.

Each function needs a budget, policy goals in measurable outcomes, and reviews for and by the science advisor, the economic advisor, OMB’s regulation burden review, environmental impacts, state and local relationships - along with interests groups and congress.

There are basic areas of activity: ( Domestic Policy and NCS )

Human Resources:

     Health, ( NIH) research - services - finance

    Education and welfare

     Workforce - labor

        Categorical: Veterans, aged, blind, handicapped etc.

Science and technology - NSF

Economic planning and commerce

     Treasury, trade, IRS - trust fund management

     Categorical: Transportation, communications,

     Population and land use

     Energy

Natural Resources:

     Interior, parks, land management

     Agriculture and forests

Justice

     Enforcement - FBI

    DEA, INS

     Civil Rights

Homeland security

     Disasters,

    coast guard

National Security - DOD

CIA - NSA -

NASA and many other semi-independent agencies need to say what part is science, defense, technology development -

Foreign Relations - State Department -

Task forces - inter-functional

 NSC -

Office of Management and Budget

Environmental

Regulation

Scientific Information and

 program analysis and evaluation

Inter-governmental - state and local affairs

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The one issue that sticks out to me is the cost of interest payments. The "myth" of the special status of payroll taxes is very useful in getting the debt paid down, reducing interest costs and making social security more secure. What is needed are real reserves - real government assets that could be used in bad times and increased in good times rather than using debt that carries long term interest costs. Just like a well run family or business account there should be reserves, saving as a rainy day fund. Also a promise is a promise and hard to talk your way out of when it's not easy or without pain. The unhappy record of this Whitehouse in being dishonest, tricky, fast with the numbers makes it hard for them to be believed about anything. 

For honesty's sake, Democrats, Republicans, and the media must quit using expressions like "trust fund" and "robbing" when speaking of Social Security, for there is no trust fund, and money cannot be "robbed" unless it is set aside, which it has never been.

Except for the last year or two of the Clinton years the surplus has never in modern times exceeded revenue from FICA.  Bush and Gore both spoke of the "lock box" for social security.  Neither party has the stomach for it.  Why?  Because Democrats want to spend it on social programs and Republicans want to give it back in tax breaks.  Neither party wants the discipline of the "lock box."  Both parties use the same rhetoric when it suits them. 

Even with last year's program increases, federal spending continued to fall in 2001 as a share of the economy. OMB's newest figures suggest that federal expenditures will equal about 18 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2001, which is the lowest level since 1966.

http://www.centeronbudget.org/8-22-01bud3.htm

Appropriation bills enacted last fall contributed to the growth of federal spending in 2001, but they are not the reason the 2001 surplus that OMB projected this April has disappeared. The tax cut and the economic slowdown are the reasons. More generally, the 2001 expenditure increases enacted last year are only one-fifth the size of the tax cut over the long run. And as a share of the economy, total federal spending in 2001 is at its lowest level since 1966.

http://www.cbpp.org/8-28-01bud.htm

The CBO update of its baseline estimates shows a total budget surplus of $3.4 trillion between 2002 and 2011, or $2.2 trillion less than the $5.6 trillion surplus that it projected in May. About three-quarters of this decline reflects the impact of the enacted tax-cut package. Only 13 percent represents the effects of the economic slowdown — with much of the impact affecting the projections in the next few years — and the remainder results primarily from revisions to various technical assumptions. Of this $3.4 trillion total surplus, $2.5 trillion represents the surplus in the Social Security trust fund and $404 billion reflects the surplus in the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund.

· For the budget outside the Social Security trust fund, CBO estimates a ten-year surplus of $847 billion, but predicts deficits in 2001, 2003, and 2004.⁽¹⁾ (The non-Social Security surplus in 2002 is projected to be a mere $2 billion.)

· For the budget outside both the Social Security and Medicare HI trust funds, CBO projects a ten-year surplus of $443 billion, but anticipates a deficit in each year from 2001 through 2005.

The Congressional Budget Office's new report on the federal budget confirms that the surplus is considerably smaller than previously assumed and that, in some years, the budget outside Social Security will be in deficit. CBO now shows a surplus between 2002 and 2011 that is $2.2 trillion less than it estimated in May; about three-quarters of this decline was caused by the impact of the recently enacted tax-cut package. Moreover, these CBO estimates are less rosy than those released by the Administration last week as part of its Mid-Session Review.

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Understanding Vietnam -

The national purpose, the public interest, our vital interests is in the spread of reason, truth, justice, prosperity, peace, enterprise, civic institution, knowledge, at home and overseas. We don’t need a big military to do what is important and it may get in the way. If you have a hammer you look for a nail to hit. If you have a idea, a product, a process, a concern, you look for markets, for partners, for synergy.

The case of Senator Kerrey is very fascinating.

The life expectancy of first lieutenants in World War I was counted in hours once they entered the combat. Young officers with the Naval SEAL working behind the "lines" could not have been much better.

Why, Kerrey still asks, would a nation put young men into this situation to kill and be killed. What is the national interests, who and how is the National Security defined, what is vital and protects the global order, our welfare and liberty and what is just dumb and evil.

The real geo-political choices have to do with the multiplier factor. Will actions done or left undone multiply, breed, fester, spread, or diminish, wear out, go away by themselves or with a push rather then a murderess attack. We thought we could just push a bit, then a bit more, and we were sucked into a wreaking pool deeper and deeper. As Forest Gump says " Stupid is as stupid does".

The judgment to go to war is made by elites then sold with slogans and lies.

The cause of Vietnam was part of a global - geo-political theory of the cold war. It started with the Truman doctrine in Greece and Turkey. NATO and the Martiall plan were designed to forestall any further Soviet ( communist ) military, economic or political influence in Europe, the Middle East. In Asia the policy of "containment" of China involved Korea, American Bases in Japan, Guam and the Philippines, supports in Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Indochina. It made some sense but contained a fatal flaw. Dominos = geo-political power struggle between the "West" and it’s enemies. We never really believed the socialist systems would not work - that Russia could not maintain an Empire, a modern military and control subject nations for long, that globalization would make this theory of them and us quite wrong.

We never really believed in our own values and democratic theory - that modern industrial societies would be so successful that the model would evolve everywhere naturally.

We didn’t care if the people of Vietnam wanted to be ruled by a Catholic Europeanized minority - or the quality of the civic society in many terrible but non-communist countries. We must have only believed in power, territory, them vs. Us, zero sum games and the real military potential of the evil empire.

The idea was that "communist" would threaten all of Indochina, south east Asia, Cuba then central America etc.

The domino theory - and it was wrong, not even close - so,

How could the "wise men" LBJ consulted been so wrong ? ( Except for George Ball ) -

The good that men do is interned in their bones, the evil lives after them to the third generation.

The first law of wisdom is - Error on the side of the angels - when in doubt do the right thing ! Instead we erred in the cause of evil and failed to promote our interests, but damaged our position everywhere, did not improve but hurt our society, our security, our military authority - one big bad bust which still is not over.

A bunch of fatuous old men and women tied to old ideas - all supporting each other in their foolishness - sounds like most of traditional institutions - the Supreme Court, the national security council, the joint chiefs of staff, the Archbishop of the Catholic Church of NY , the legislatures, the board of directors of American business, the mainstream media, all firmly supported the war in Vietnam as did the Central Committee of the Communist party for the other side.

The multiplier effect is basic to understanding the social economic political process. In a modern semi-closed economy - the multiplier is close to 2.5 which means new activity - a new factory or grant or income source will circulate so one dollar becomes two fifty by the end of the year. John gets a dollar which is spent with Peter who then buys something from Paul and on to Mark. In a tourist economy like St. Thomas, John gets off the boat and buys an imported good from Peter who pays Paul at the counter but Mark who supplies the goods is elsewhere.

The multiplier is one or less.

John has an idea which impresses Peter who brokers money from Paul and sells it to Mark. Ideas and products grow and activity increases so everyone is better off - a win/win non-zero sum but synergy - the whole is more than the sum of it’s parts both positive and negative. Paul believes in decline, stops buying from Peter which frightens John who fires Mark.

In a Global Economy John in here, Peter is there, Paul is elsewhere, and Mark is just getting the message. Like the apostles the message, methods, ideas, hopes, systems are spread from the few to the many.

In geo-politics the issue is leverage - we need a stable, market directed world.

The oil money cycles, the technology spreads, financial circles expand - the natural advantage of multipliers work. Socialism and communist systems have low multipliers - they don’t work. John commands Peter to produce, who hires Paul and Mark but the value of their production is not sold on the open market. Both labor and product is undervalued with no extra circulation, no profit, no surplus, no new investment, no improvement in confidence, no cycle of hope and hype and growth.

Freedom works. Free markets work.

They need a civic culture, the rule of law, social justice. Justice comes from open system, advancement of character and ability, greater resources. In the long run we need not have worried about a independent Vietnam, or that that matter the Soviet Union, or Communist China - they will fail of their own weight.

The leverage is the success of better ideas and the spread of ideas.

That is the national purpose, the public interest, our vital interests is in the spread of reason, truth, justice, prosperity, peace, enterprise, civic institution, knowledge, at home and overseas. We don’t need a big military to do what is important and it may get in the way. If you have a hammer you look for a nail to hit. If you have a idea, a product, a process, a concern, you look for markets, for partners, for synergy.

The Educational Reform Act of 2001:

The several states and territories are hereby entitled to reimbursement for the same proportion of the salaries and benefits of qualified classroom teachers for those professional engaged in basic instruction, the federal government will contribute that same share of these employment costs as the teachers’ students are eligible for the free school lunch program.

The states and territories will be reimbursed based on approved plans and estimates of the numbers and costs with the U.S. Secretary of Education, who may approve definitions of basic instruction, classroom teachers, teacher qualifications, salary programs, and any incentive pay upon which the secretary may authorize quarterly advances and adjustments.

The states may include teachers from charter schools, schools being run by a contractor and non-public schools within an improved plan only in so far as these serve the eligible population.

About $15,000 for a million teachers - some with a small amount some at 100 % = 15 billion - not much more than title I and within range - even if twice that - If the feds pay teachers resources are free for other critical needs.

Then we can move toward a realistic salary - working conditions - qualifications - promotion and specialization system - professionals are the critical in education - then with this base things can really be improved.

The American Public and both parties say that education is their top priority but school reform has become so complex that no one understands what is going on - or is the story reported. Incremental is natural but has a PR problem when there is the complete lack of focus.

The bills them-self are endless - there needs to be a clear focus - something beyond testing because tests do not create solutions only let us know what we already know - a lot of children are not up to grade level.

The only meaningful answer is competition - charter schools if not vouchers - the charter provisions in the current bill are grants and information to state education agencies - or the fox gets the grants for the chickens or for a restructured with the feds taking a major responsibility for instruction. ( State and local build building, transportation, overhead and administration ) All this sound and fury will not do much - but then something is better than nothing.

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c107:S.1.PCS

original bill to extend programs and activities under the Elementary and Secondary Education Act or S.1

H.R.1

No Child Left Behind Act of 2001

S.303

Three R's Act

Better Education for Students and Teachers Act

· Better Education for Students and Teachers Act

· Alaska Native Educational Equity, Support, and Assistance Act

· Native Hawaiian Education Act

· Access to High Standards Act

· Rural Education Achievement Program

· Education Flexibility Partnership Act of 2001

· Pro-Children Act of 2001

· Bilingual Education Act

· Teacher Mobility Act

· Dropout Prevention Act

· 21st Century Community Learning Centers Act

Helping Children Succeed by Fully Funding the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) (Introduced in the Senate)[S.466.IS]

Public School Repair and Renovation Act of 2001 (Introduced in the Senate)[S.471.IS] Educational Excellence for All Learners Act of 2001 (Introduced in the Senate)[S.7.IS]

Under a tentative agreement between Democrats and the White House, the Senate bill would require mandatory student testing, help children learn to read by the third grade and give states more leeway in spending federal education funds -- signature issues for Bush during the presidential campaign. http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010426/pl/congress_education_dc_11.html

Most Constitutional questions are informed by these papers.

http://lcweb2.loc.gov/const/fed/fedpapers.html

The clear idea of our form of government is a balance between tyrants ( the colonial experience of Kings and Priests ) and mob rule or anarchy feared under the too weak articles of confederation.

The system will work despite the fact that most people neither understand or approve of our fractured system but believe in majority rule as a base of democracy. Bush says " We won " - even if he did that in itself does not settle anything. Federalism is not a winner take all system but moves forward on ideas, concepts, mind and common sense.

The foundation is civic virtue enlighten by a mystic idea of "the people" as a whole or the General Welfare as a practical concept based on mature judgment of virtue and devotion to country of real leaders - not factions or special interests based on concepts of marketing - not the rich or the poor - not majority rule - not popular idols - not fashion or popular ideas - but a broad, historic concept of the will of the whole -

So the President, the Congress and the Court should address not their base - not this group vs. that group, them vs. us, but their concept of what is the common good or public interests - these views will differ depending on the social class and interests of the viewer - but the theme is it will be good for the republic as a whole.

Gore failed, Bush failed in their appeal ( or even to talk to the whole people ) to give the whole a sense of vision for the nation - a concept of the common good - better race relations, better education, better civic culture, better public management of common affairs, and instinct for freedom and initiative, etc. Now they will disagree as to means - taxes, budgets, environmental regulation, but within a context of the general welfare and national will.

Then when someone wins there is some context to policy. Now we have one group trying to get it's way over another group - and the constitution is expressly designed to prevent this type of victory - and they are willing to pay the price of gridlock rather than split the people when there is no clear consensus.

Give me a break:

So all this talk about tax cuts. Why am I so indifferent - why do most people care less ? Because it does not give me or them a break - it is all about income over $300,000 - not any friends of mine or in this neighborhood ?$10,000 of $35,000 is 28.5 % high but not 1/3 as the tax foundation tax freedom days claim

Reality: Table 2 shows taxes typically paid in 1996 by a household of median income. Note that the federal individual income tax is about one-fifth of taxes paid by median households. 72% of households pay more payroll taxes than federal income taxes.

The median household pays about $3,700 in state and local taxes.

· Median Income

· All American Households? $35,500*

· Households with children? $47,500*

· Two-worker families with children $52,500**

Table 2: Median Household (1996 data, approx.)

Table 2: Median Household (1996 data, approx.)

· Taxes Share Source

· Federal income tax $ 2,150 20% CBO

· Federal payroll tax* $ 3,600 34% CBO

· All other federal taxes** $ 1,250 12% CBO

· State and local taxes $ 3,700 34% ITEP***

· TOTAL $10,700 100%

http://www.cbpp.org/whatdo.htm

http://www.cbpp.org/whatdo.htm

First - income taxes are less than property taxes ( about $3,000 for the average family or 10 % ) because I have various breaks on income taxes - child credit, mortgage deduction, which all ready cut federal income taxes to much less than property taxes which only go up.

Second - payroll taxes are about the same or greater than income taxes for most of the households in America because of the effective rate of income taxes is far less than the 18 % payroll taxes - 15 % Social security, 3 % Medicare.

10 % in Income taxes, 10 % in property, 18 % in payroll, ( employers share is just a hidden tax ) 10 % in sales and exercise ( utility taxes, gas tax, sales tax etc ) = 45 % over all taxes - income tax is only 20 % of total taxes ( 1/5 ) - a 10 % cut is only 2 % of total tax burden so not a big deal !

Third, perhaps even more hidden than many taxes - is the high cost of health coverage - health insurance is about three times income taxes for most households over $ 6,000 ( and a real cost of employment one way or the other ) and in most cases not very good, very bureaucratic, extremely wasteful, fragmented and a real problem for most families.

Basic and public Health, basic education and minimum welfare are basic public services - as are roads, police, law and order, courts and jails, fire, land use and other regulations, which could be provided by private profit or non-profit organizations but are required by civilized societies.

The real tax reform would be to realign the whole tax system !

"However, it is possible for government trust funds currently holding marketable government debt to hold other assets instead. Designing mechanisms to protect against the hazards of government involvement in private securities markets is a serious issue that we do not address here. But it is worth noting that state and local government pension funds already hold $3 trillion in private assets—including $2 trillion in equities—earn competitive returns, do not appear to disrupt financial markets, and—even with virtually none of the safeguards that would be imposed on federal investments—invest only a tiny fraction of their funds in "targeted" investments. Moreover, other investment possibilities are available as well, including but not limited to the president's own proposal to exchange the government debt being held by the Social Security trust fund for the assets held in the individual accounts of a privatized "

Social Security system. http://www.brookings.edu/comm/PolicyBriefs/Pb076/pb76.htm

The idea is to have the fed pay 75 % of the actual cost of basic education ( teacher salaries ) which is 50 % of the cost of public schools - ( about $ 5,000 cost - $ 2500 for instruction and $ 2,500 for all the overhead - building, transport, lunch, administration, sports, - feds pay 75 % of the actual cost of instruction or $ 1875 which would go a long way for vouchers, charter schools and other critical reforms ) also allows for property tax relief. If private education can cost ½ of public - then there are big saving here.

The income tax could be set on a scale ( a chart not a table that has bracket creep ) based on the median income.

The top rate could be 25 % to 33 % and reduced from .5 % to .33 % for each percentile off the top income. So if the top rate is 33 % then the 75 percentile pays 33 % - 25 ( off top ) x .5 = 12.5 % = 20.5 % and goes to 0 under 50 % or median income.

The earned income tax credit used to balance for high payroll rates for low income workers, and higher sales taxes.

A national sales tax of 5 % to 10 %.

A nation system of health and retirement insurance. Individuals and households have a all in one payroll deduction system.

The 15 % in social security and 3 % in Medicare plus other FICA - disability, unemployment, etc. Plus the 401 (k) other insurance, retirement, other savings, etc. Are reported each month in a statement like a credit card plus bank balance.

The rich get to put away more money for retirement tax free, deduct health insurance, and other advantages to savings and investments.

The poor get support from 100 % for the flat broke, to 10 % for the median household to support retirement savings and health coverage.

The actual plans would be like the federal civil service plans - a choice of coverage with more or less additional costs - glasses, dental, prescriptions, mental health, alternative medicines, etc. With different deductions and co-payments.

There is no way these can be made to be a one size fits all federal plan.

The NRA - the holding of real assets by a federal semi-public agency - to hold Social Security, Medicare, Civil and Military pensions funds - maybe ( highway, airport, water and other trust funds ) would be very useful and stabilize public finance and could be used to counter the economic cycles.

The same 45 % of income is used in taxes - more from sales taxes, less from property and income taxes BUT includes better, lower cost health coverage, provides basic health, education and welfare, helps maintain steady growth of the economic pie, puts retirement on a sound footing, makes us a more civilized civil society and will give me a break.

Time for reform:

The central role of government is to provide for the general welfare.

The modern state maintains the social and economic base which promotes or discourages enterprise, prosperity, justice, and security.

There are only three ways to reform pension planning - reduce benefits, raise taxes or get a higher return.

The national defense and welfare depends on a health economy, science and engineering, education, communications, transportation, health, social security and insurance, all depend on a functional and rational government.

The issue is not more government or less government but good government. It is necessary to review the whole system - not just tax cuts but tax reform, not just the federal budget but the whole package of local, state, excise, and other taxes and the services they support.

Taxes are raised to support necessary civil society.

They should interfere as little as possible and support free markets, enterprise, growth and creativity through the provision of physical and cultural infrastructure. If you want more work, saving, investment you support it, home ownership for example - if you want less of something you tax it - drinking and smoking for example.

The whole tax system should be reviewed on how it impacts on the whole system.

First the trust funds should be taken out of the operational budget. A total budget could be reported but in two parts - operations - pay as you go expenditures - now about a trillion dollars - about ½ by formula and ½ by annual appropriations. Another $ 800,000 billion are trust funds, Social Security, Medicare, Civil Service and military retirement, Highway, sewer and water, airport, which could become real reserves with professional managers. First the budget figures what is needed for operation then tax rates are adjusted. Trust funds are run by the treasury, the federal reserve and non-political boards.

Funds are invested in Treasuries - and paid real interest from the operational budget, foreign bonds which support the dollar, Certificates of deposit, investment grade bonds, the international Euro and Euro dollar markets. Compound interest supports retirement and saving funds. Individuals have pretax retirement, health insurance, educational savings, accounts some of which is invested by the national system.

A package of reforms would simplify and lower taxes on income, profits, capital gains, savings, and remove the hundreds of special targeted tax policies.

The reduction of income taxes is the critical part of any reform, to 20 % top, - .25 % for each percentile in the income distribution, to go to 0 for almost half the population. All income would be treated the same - but adjusted gross income would correct for a few important corrections, and the real estate deduction will have to remain - also child and child care credits.

The low income tax credit would have to be increased to correct for payroll taxes and the increases in consumer ( sales, VAT ) taxes.

After a minimum income tax, the other needs for operational budgets should come from consumption taxes. A national rate of 6 % should make the difference. Consumption taxes are healthier than production taxes. It increases international competition because exports don’t pay sales taxes - so they act as a legal and effective subsidies.

National Reserves Administration:

A set of programs of agricultural and business supports, inflation, price stabilization, and public works funded by revenue bonds; numerous trust fund management organizations, e.g., the NATIONAL RESERVES ADMINISTRATION, would have three parts.

These programs would produce long term stability, prosperity, national welfare, social justice, sound currency, and justice.

REVENUES:

Income tax rates are set on a scale ( rather than a tax table with jumps ) - starting at the top rate ( for example 1/3 or 33 % ) and goes down to 0 % at about 40th percentile of median income from last year. Each percentile’s rate is reduced by .5 % ( .05 ) off the top rate so at 80 percentile is the top rate reduced by 20 ( 100 - 80 ) x .05 = 10 from 33 % = 23 % tax rate, 50th percentile is 50 x .05 = 25 % off 33 % or 8 % tax rate, and 40th at 0. Under 25th percentile there is an income tax credit. ( to adjusted for payroll taxes )

The rates are set to produce the revenue needed to balance the budget by law.

Income is gross adjusted income for population groups, marred, child credits, etc. Pretax funds are not counted -

IRA, Pension, health, and other preferred savings are managed by the NRA - in real trust funds.

RESERVES:

Social security, Medicare, Military and civil service retirement funds, highway, airport, water and sewer, soil conservation, supper fund, and other trust funds are managed by the NRA as real reserves. Households get all-in-one statement and can add to various accounts on a pretax basis. Low income households get a subsidy to add to their savings ( IRA’s, pensions, health insurance, educational and other supported savings ).

The 14 % paid into Social Security would show as a pensions savings - be invested by the NRA in bonds, ( US and foreign ) and other investment grade private bonds, index funds, certificates of deposits, London Inter-Bank loans in the Euro and Euro dollar markets. Individuals can add to this or other IRA, pension and retirement funds on a pre-tax basis. This is a lot more practical than pure personal privatization.

The Civil Service system of choice of health plans could be used on a limited basis - people who pay more get more - every gets a minimum -

THIRD -

The national sales tax ( VAT ) - to balance income and revenue a national sales tax could support income transfers and make pensions work.

Advantages:

Fiscal management - saving in good times - expenditures ( based on revenue bond ) in poor time that does not add to long term national debt.

Sates tax get revenue for the large ( 10 % of GNP ) now untaxed as parts of the under ground economy. ( not just street markets, drugs, crime, but a lot of cash services ).

They also act as a support for exports since exports do not pay sales or VAT. ( up to 18 % in Europe )

The purchase of foreign bonds by NRA would help the balance of payments and the trade gap.

Taxes and Reserves:

There is a tax creep - or bracket creep as incomes jump into higher brackets.

The solution is not a flat tax but an index tax set to median income from the prior year.

One of a set of points on a scale arrived at by dividing a group into parts by order of magnitude. For example, a score higher than 97 percent of those incomes is said to be in the 97th percentile.

So the adjusted gross income group ( less credits ) at 75 % of all ( single, married, etc ) would be 55 % of the top rate of 33 % or 18 % - people under 45 % ( median income) about $ 30,000 pay no income taxes. Under 20 % get earned income tax credits - negative tax or income support. Instead of a tax table there is a tax scale or chart.

The rates could be set to produce the necessary revenue.

The use of Reserves:

Some countries do have reserves - real saving - Taiwan -

The oil states - We have trust funds that are not real ( no funds, no trust ) pay as you go systems - Civil Service and military retirement - Highway and Airport funds, social security, Medicare, water and sewers, soil conservation, Supper fund and we could use a school construction, general public works etc. Trillions of dollars cold be in these funds.

We have semi-public agencies such as TVA, Federal reserve, etc. Now we create an agency called "

The Federal Reserve Trust Fund management Agency " FRTF - managed by a board of the federal reserve, treasury, and public members selected for long overlapping terms.

The FRTF would hold the separate funds and work with their managers as clients - and earn real income on the money. When growth rates are over 1 % they build reserves and just hold them for income and pay out costs and use them for their statutory purposes.

When growth drops more than - 1 % additional costs could be made.

Investments would be in U.S. Bonds - ( paid real interests ) foreign bonds ( help balance of payments ) , Certificates of deposit, ( increases saving and lower interest rates ) index funds, as do state and local public retirement funds.

In poor times the FRTF could support public works by buying revenue bonds for highways, airports, schools, water works, to increase income, expenditures, employment, investments, without creating long term debt and currency problems as does direct government borrowing.

They would get the money back in better times because these projects have revenue streams or special fees or taxes.

__________________________________________________

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http://www.wiredbrain.net/initiative.htm part of reform

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What can be done ?

Since there are two firmly held and conflicting theories on Macro Economic policy hard vs. soft money and finance, what can be done that is most likely to create long term prosperity ?

There is a third way:

Fiscal hard money ( gold standard ) conservative ( balanced budgets ) but low inflation and lower interest rates because of less public demand on credit - by using Public Trust Funds to increase saving, investments, and productivity and pump prime when needed.

This could give the treasuary and federal reserve a whole new set of tools. If there were large reserves they could be used to get things moving or to slow things down.

While states and local government have pension funds, and a few even have rainy day funds, the big federal programs are only paper and run on a pay as you go system.

The social security trust fund is not a fund, or are there no real saving put aside for Civil Service Retirements, Military Pensions, Highway and Airport Trust funds, Super fund, etc.

Theses are all under-funded liabilities.

The example of funds managed by semi-private national corporations for housing finance and student loans suggests that either a independent agency or the federal reserve could manage the billions to trillions in such funds independent of political passions.

This would go a long way to fix the demographic crisis and be a public privatization of pension funds.

Of the real money, most would be in treasuries drawing real interest as a charge on the budget ( which is not the current case ), CD’s that increase bank deposits, interest baring credits on the International inter-bank and Euro dollar markets, all which since it increases the supply of credit and saving so lowers the cost of money world wide so more investments become possible. It is a soft money - but without the inflationary side effects of big governmental programs or debts. A small amount maybe in the stock markets - buy when they are low and sell to cut off excessive speculation only using mutual and index funds not individual stocks, a very profitable strategy.

In hard times Governments could increase their borrowings from themselves by using these reserves to finance through the purchase of revenue bonds, public works ( airports, communications, school construction, power plants, water works, etc.) which would be paid back into the trusts in better times.

The size of the funds could make a real multi-trillion dollar difference and not create long term national debts. By definition, poor times means firms are cutting back - there is less demand for capital - so the movement of money from reserves to active projects is all to the good. It will not tighten the money supply or raise interest rates. In good times the building of reserves - and the constraint on expenditures by payment of hard money as interest, will constrain inflation and firm up the currency.

The country would end up with better roads, bridges, water works, power systems, schools, and other infrastructures.

The agency could refinance state and local bonds to create more impact. Many of these projects have a income stream that assures payments.

The old worn out arguments:

The gold standard: One set of ideas are the hard money types.

The Reform ideas that are common in the IMF, Conservative traditional doctrine, monetary theorist, and many other economists is that monetary and fiscal should be tight - hard time require "belt tightening" , cut public expenditures, taxes, and even if interest rates go up. This will shake out excess capacity, get rid of low productivity firms, cut inflation, strengthen weak currencies, and while painful is the medicine that works. This reduces supply with the blind faith that Says law will produce demand at lower prices - but supply side ideas add that low taxes and hard money motivate investment, work and saving so will be productive in the long run.

The problem is that it doesn’t work very well, takes a long time and is not popular.

The silver standard:

The other liberal approach which is associated with Keynes ( who said that in the long run we are all dead ) is to "pump prime" by increases in public works, create deficits, loosen money supply, to lower interest rates and increase demand. Supply will take care of itself if people have money to buy.

The problem is debt and inflation, weak currencies, and big government.

A trillion here, a trillion there and before you know it you are talking about real money:

The great crash of 1929 was caused in part by ill-rational exuberance and margin calls. People bought rising stocks on loans from banks and brokers. When the stocks fell they had to sell to cover their margins which pushed the market down - into a downward cycle which lasted a decade. Margins at brokers were raised as a result.

BUT people can get cash from credit cards, home equity loans, and deposit the money in on-line brokers who have very little in way of responsibility to check the reasonableness of investors ( old style brokers actually warned people of risky strategies ) so they are in the tank as many speculative stocks are close to having nothing of value.

They can’t buy cars and new toys on the never-never and their houses are even in question if there are equity loans. That is why the change in bankruptcy and real fear in financial circles.

The total assets held by U.S. Citizens are about 45 trillion dollars ( 6 times GDP ) - they just lost ( paper gains become paper losses ) at least 3 trillion - or only 6 % BUT millions of firms and households were in a serious negative net worth position before the loss - i.e. their debts are far greater than real assets - and what is left is mostly in real estate which is not liquid or certain.

Their tax deferred saving could be called forcing the market down even further. A small decline in Real estate should be expected and so forth and so on in a downward cycle.

Meanwhile we have a wimp for President and he is scared, uncertain, and weak. Just what the Republicans if not the republic deserved. Tax cuts are small comfort and useless in the face of an large asset based decline.

The currency has to be revalued downward to deal with the real value of assets - ( just like in other places and times, FDR dropped the gold standard )

The credit markets need to be shored up with public funds ( open market purchase of treasurers that lower interest rates and increase money supply ) and loosen reserve requirements - so credit does freeze up as banks and others suffer a wave of bad debt. In Japan and Europe Banks hold stocks as assets. When the value goes down they can become insolvent. A bad loan has a multiplier of 2 or 3 because the bank has made more loans on the belief that the first loan is an asset - this multiplier may be much bigger with the use of secondary and third level instruments that re-capitalize debt. You can see a financial pyramid here.

The IMF tells everyone else facing asset loss to do just the reverse - when real estate tanked in Japan, when markets collapsed in Asia, they were told to stabilize the devalued currency, tighten fiscal policy ( balance the budget ) and wash out bad debt as quickly as possible. This makes things worse in the short run - maybe better in the long run. No one knows who is right - and the US is different because it is the center stone of the whole world wide arching economy. If the key stone cracks the whole thing falls of it’s own weight.

Time for nerve and certainly - and who do we have holding the key to wealth or disaster - ? Not my job man THANK GOD !

There is no one who understands global markets like Rubin does - I hope they can figure it out.

Knee Jerk Reactions:

http://www.wiredbrain.net/public-policy.htm

Political Analysis of many social and physical infrastructure problems require actions that are not politically possible because policy is fixed inside a box. Solutions out-of-the-box are rarely tried. A school shooting and people talk the same dribble.

The standards are stuck in policies we know won't work- fixing schools involves size, control, commitment and money , transportation involves land use, housing involves markets and race, energy involves nuclear power, drugs involves soft ( leave to local government) and hard ( limit enforcement to transportation) , crime, ( make laws with fewer of them ) immigration, ( be rational about labor markets ) modern military structure, ( making less enemies ) et al.

It is further has suggested that programs that were political possible made the situation worse - highways that slow travel, housing programs that decrease the supply of low cost homes, drug enforcement that increase crime, drug abuse, and the profits in illegal drug trade, programs for disabled students that have created a bureaucratic nightmare and diverted resources from the real handicapped ( 5 % )to wasteful programs for 1/4 of students with "learning disabled", behavioral programs, psycho active drugs, and thousands of "pork programs".

http://www.cagw.org/

Nothing very useful will be done under a money driven political system.

The last half century has been driven oil - political power flooded on oil money from LBJ to George W. Now it's still oil and energy, automobiles, medical, drug companies, public employees, financial services,

http://www.cagw.org/publications/prime/pubs.primecuts.home.htm

Copernic Search Results

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Search:	"public policy" policy public progressive enterprise democratic republician institute (Any word)	Date:	3/14/01
Found:	132 document(s) on  The Web	Sort:	Score

1. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research	77%
About AEI Board of Trustees Scholars Publications and Commentary Relevant to the News Research Areas Annual Report Monthly Newsletter Jobs/Internships Listen to AEI Events Links Become an AEI Associate Buy AEI Books Annual Dinner 2001 Click  Found by: FAST Search, Yahoo! http://www.aei.org/    [ Translate ]

2. ProgressivePolicyInstitute	74%
A public policy center shaping the "Third Way" governing agenda.  Found by: Open Directory Project http://www.ppionline.org/    [ Translate ]

3. Links - Illinois Democrats for Effective Action	73%
Illinois Democrats for Effective Action is a not-for-profit public policy institute committed to developing and advocating progressive, practical answers to critical questions facing the people of ...  Found by: Excite http://www.ideaillinois.com/links.htm   [ Translate ]

4. The Cato Institute: Public Policy Analysis, Limited Government, Free Markets	72%
Search the Cato Institute: Help Advanced Search 24 Years of Promoting Public Policy Based on Individual Liberty, Limited Government, Free Markets and Peace. Cato University The Cato Store El Cato en Español Career Opportunities E-mail Updates Links of  Found by: FAST Search http://www.cato.org/    [ Translate ]

5. Tax Policy & Reform Groups	71%
A listing of tax policy and reform groups.  Found by: MSN Web Search, WebCrawler http://www.taxsites.com/policy.html   [ Translate ]

6. Earl A. Spiller, Jr.	70%
Earl A. Spiller, Jr. Professor, School of Accounting. Phone: Office: (803) 777-6640. Education. CPA, Illinois, 1967. Ph.D., University of Michigan,...  Found by: AltaVista http://129.252.51.201/Business/departmt/spiller.htm   [ Translate ]

7. FrontDoor - Politics	70%
Only one of more than a hundred pages that focus your Web experience and eliminate frustrating and fruitless searching with a database-driven archive of 10,000+ annotated links to the very best websites.  Found by: MSN Web Search http://www.frontdoor.com/pages/law_pol.html   [ Translate ]

8. Society Of Indian Americans	70%
contains events, annoucements, offers, and photos.  Found by: Yahoo! http://www.filebox.vt.edu/users/ssheikh/sia/SIAPage.htm   [ Translate ]

9. Victory in the CDA Case!	70%
CDT's Communications Decency Act Issues Page Wednesday June 12 at 9:00 am, judges rule unanimously against the Communications Decency Act (CDA). EARLIER VERSIONS OF THE CDA March 1995  Found by: WebCrawler http://www.cdt.org/cda.html   [ Translate ]

10. IDEA bios -- Illinois Democrats for Effective Action	70%
Illinois Democrats for Effective Action is a not-for-profit public policy institute committed to developing and advocating progressive, practical answers to critical questions facing the people of ...  Found by: Excite http://www.ideaillinois.com/bios.htm   [ Translate ]

11. Untitled	70%
COMPETITIVE ENTERPRISEINSTITUTE advancing the principles of free enterprise and limited government  The Competitive EnterpriseInstitute is a non-profit public policy organization dedicated to the principles of free enterprise and limited government.  Found by: WebCrawler http://www.cei.org/about.html   [ Translate ]

12. Yahoo! Social Science:Political Science:Public Policy:Institutes:Think Tanks	70%
Personalize Help - Check Email Home > Social Science > Political Science > Public Policy > Institutes > Think Tanks Continental Airlines Credit Card all of Yahoo! just this category Shop Online Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars - fund  Found by: MSN Web Search http://www.yahoo.com/Social_Science/Political_Science/Public_Policy/Institutes/Think_Tanks   [ Translate ]

13. Tascona, Joseph	68%
Progressive Conservative MPP for the riding of Barrie-Simcoe-Bradford and serves as special council to the Progressive Conservative Youth Federation and is Co-Chair of the Policy Advisory Council for Labour and Employment matters.  Found by: Open Directory Project http://www.ontla.on.ca/members/conservatives/tascona.htm   [ Translate ]

14. The Beacon Hill Institute for Public Policy Research at Suffolk University	68%
HOME About BHI What's New NewsLink Policy Studies Opinion Editorials Ray Shamie Center for Civic Enterprise BHI Intranet Faxsheets Search Subject Index Related Links POLICY STUDYEducation Reform Promoting Good Schools Through Wise Spending New  Found by: FAST Search http://www.beaconhill.org/    [ Translate ]

15. Progressive Web Sites	67%
"Bringing democratic control to the conduct of foreign policy requires a struggle merely to force the issue onto the public agenda." Eric Alterman, author  Found by: Excite http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/General/Progressive_websites.html   [ Translate ]

16. Yahoo! Social Science:Political Science:Public Policy:Institutes:Think Tanks	67%
Personalize Help - Check Email Home > Social Science > Political Science > Public Policy > Institutes > Think Tanks www. all of Yahoo! just this category Shop Online Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars - funding the humanities and soc  Found by: MSN Web Search http://www.yahoo.com/text/Social_Science/Political_Science/Public_Policy/Institutes/Think_Tanks   [ Translate ]

17. MP3.com: free mp3 downloads online cd jukebox MP3 music greeting cards	66%
Largest collection of free MP3s to play or download, free MP3 software, My.MP3.com FREE personal online jukebox for CDs and MP3s, music news and MP3...  Found by: AltaVista http://www.mp3.com/lyrics/122/122740.html   [ Translate ]

18. Tobacco, public health, and public policy	66%
Panel discussion at conference. Covers different health and policy aspects. Participants include Stan Glantz, Luanne Nyberg, and Bill Novelli.  Found by: Open Directory Project http://www.ucop.edu/srphome/trdrp/Aim97/plenary.html   [ Translate ]

19. Georgetown University Public Policy Review	66%
Publishes articles that contribute to the thoughtful discourse of public policy.  The journal is published semi-annually, in the fall and the spring.  The Editorial Board is composed of graduate students from the Georgetown Public PolicyInstitute.  Found by: Open Directory Project http://www.georgetown.edu/publications/GPPR/   [ Translate ]

20. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute	65%
an independent institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament.  Found by: Yahoo! http://www.sipri.se/    [ Translate]

21. PPI: About the Progressive PolicyInstitute

65%

The mission of the ProgressivePolicyInstitute is to define and promote a new progressive politics for America in the 21st century. (See:  The New Progressive Declaration) Through its research, policies, and perspectives, the Institute is fashioning a new governing philosophy and an agenda for public innovation geared to the Information Age.  Found by: WebCrawler http://www.dlcppi.org/aboutppi.htm   [ Translate ]

22. Public Agenda Online: Public Opinion and Public Policy	64%
Find out more about our history, our research and our mission. Find out about the policy options and public opinion behind critical public concerns with our nonpartisan issue guides. A handy guide for to help reporters and citizens cast a critical eye on  Found by: FAST Search http://www.publicagenda.org/   [ Translate ]

23. Hyundai: Driving Is Believing	63%
The official site of Hyundai Motor America. See the 2000 Accent, Elantra, Sonata and Tiburon models and the Hyundai Advantage - America's best...  Found by: AltaVista http://www.hyundaitiburon.com/finance/tiburon/warranty/events/inside/sonata/dealer/index.htm   [ Translate ]

24. Medicine	63%
Academic Organizations Commercial Organizations Discussion Groups Government Organizations Non-profit Organizations See Also Web Search Search here, or use Galaxy's advanced search for more options.  Found by: WebCrawler http://galaxy.einet.net/galaxy/Medicine.html   [ Translate ]

25. Political Gossip: Heard on the Street: Running for President in 2000	62%
George Strong (gstrong@political.com) Sat, 1 Mar 1997 07:22:46 -0600 (CST) Here what the gossips at PoliticsNow, a great web site at www.politicsnow.com, say are the top Democratic and Republician... Found by: Excite http://www.political.com/gossip-arc/0129.html   [ Translate ]

26. Foundation for Information Policy Research	61%
studies information technology issues with significant social impact, commissions research, and promotes dialogue with policy-makers in the UK and Europe.  Found by: Yahoo! http://www.fipr.org/    [ Translate ]

27. Hyundai: Driving Is Believing	60%
The official site of Hyundai Motor America. See the 2000 Accent, Elantra, Sonata and Tiburon models and the Hyundai Advantage - America's best...  Found by: AltaVista http://www.hyundaitiburon.com/events/old_pr/dealer/campus/brochure/warranty/events/new/accent/index.htm   [ Translate ]

28. Carnegie Mellon University - Engineering and Public Policy	60%
addresses problems in environmental and energy systems, telecommunications and information policy, risks to health, safety, and the enviroment, and other related issues.  Found by: Yahoo! http://www.epp.cmu.edu/    [ Translate ]

29. Compass Public Affairs	60%
An alliance of local government, political leaders and public policy specialists, including former mayors of major cities, offering public affairs services in Washington, DC and throughout the nation.  Found by: Open Directory Project http://www.compasspublicaffairs.com   [ Translate ]

30. Votenet Solutions: Internet Solutions for Public Policy and Politics	59%
Welcome! You've just found the most comprehensive source for political information, campaign solutions, and Internet-based advocacy tools. Votenet is the one-stop-shop for all things political. Votenet Solutions is non-partisan and non-ideological. Its  Found by: FAST Search http://www.votenet.com/    [ Translate ]

31. CHINASCREEN - CHINA HOT ISSUE or TOPIC OF CHINA - CHINA ECONOMIC ISSUE	58%
In the last year Nov. 29 Taiwan local elections, the ruling Kuomintang suffered a major setback.  The question is whether the victory of the pro-independence opposition DemocraticProgressive Party...  Found by: Excite http://www.chinascreen.com/hot/3_22_98.htm   [ Translate ]

32. Electronic Policy Network	58%
News, analysis, commentary and links to information resources from organization advocating liberal/progressive national public policies and politics.  Found by: Open Directory Project, WebCrawler http://epn.org/    [ Translate ]

33. FRB: Speech, Greenspan -- Central banking in a democratic society -- D...	58%
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan At the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of  The American EnterpriseInstitute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. Found by: Excite http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/1996/19961205.htm   [ Translate ]

34. Public Policy and Interest Group Links Page	58%
Public Policy and Interest Groups It is impossible to provide a comphrensive list of interest groups or public policy issues. However, the page does contain links to groups dealing with several major policy topics. If you can't find the specific iss  Found by: MSN Web Search http://www.smpcollege.com/SMP_GOVT/policy.htm   [ Translate ]

35. Hyundai: Driving Is Believing	57%
The official site of Hyundai Motor America. See the 2000 Accent, Elantra, Sonata and Tiburon models and the Hyundai Advantage - America's best...  Found by: AltaVista http://www.hyundaiaccent.com/finance/campus/elantra/events/elantra/accent/sonata/inside/dealer/brochure/disclaim.htm   [ Translate ]

36. TheOrator- Links to Organizations	57%
TheOrator offers links to various organizations online. E-mail Congress, contact public officials Important news and info, visit  TheOrator  Found by: MSN Web Search http://www.theorator.com/org.html   [ Translate ]

37. Universities & Governmental Research Institutes	57%
Send mail to research@bgr.org with questions or comments about this web site. © 1999 Bureau of Governmental Research. BGR assumes no responsibility for content outside the domain bgr.org.  Found by: WebCrawler http://www.bgr.org/universi.htm   [ Translate ]

38. Center for Security Policy	56%
mission is to stimulate and inform the national and international debate about all aspects of security policy.National Academy of Public Administration  Found by: Yahoo! http://www.security-policy.org   [ Translate ]

39. LatinoVote.com Your Source For Latino Political and Public Policy News LATINOVOTE.COM VOZNUESTRA.COM	56%
Navigation Home Election2000 Demographic Voting Stats. Access YourGovernment Latino PoliticalLinks About Election 2000 Funny Stuff home|site map about LatinoVote comments|credits disclaimer|email us Sunday, February 18, 2001 One country at a time  Found by: FAST Search http://www.latinovote.com/    [ Translate ]

40. Reason Foundation -- Reason Public Policy Institute (RPPI) and REASON Magazine	56%
Search Reason Foundation Foundation Web Sites.......... Reason Foundation Reason Public Policy Institute REASON Magazine Privatization.org NewEnvironmentalism.org UrbanFutures.org Publications..................................... -Reason Magazine -Policy Found by: FAST Search http://www.reason.org/    [ Translate ]

41. American Government and Public Policy - Internet Resources	55%
American Government and Public Policy Internet Resources October 2000 Gateway Sites Academic and Research Sites Academic and Research Organizations Scholarly Journals Other Resources Congress and Law Key Official Sites Selected Resources on Congres  Found by: MSN Web Search http://www.igs.berkeley.edu:8880/library/gallery-us.html   [ Translate ]

42. FRB: Federal Reserve Board Speech from 12/05/96	54%
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan At the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of  The American EnterpriseInstitute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. Found by: Excite http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/19961205.htm   [ Translate ]

43. Amazon.com: buying info: America Past and Present	53%
Books. All Products. Explore this book. buying info. table of contents. customer reviews. See more by the authors. all books by Robert A. Divine all...  Found by: AltaVista http://www.awardwinners.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/032100289X/    [ Translate ]

44. Physics News	53%
ROBERT B. LAUGHLIN, HORST L. STORMER, and DANIEL C. TSUI win the 1996 Nobel Prize for their discovery of a new form of quantum fluid with fractionally charged excitations.  Found by: WebCrawler http://www.het.brown.edu/news/index.html   [ Translate ]

45. The Institute for Applied Philosophy, Public Policy, and World Affairs @ R Consultants Associates, Inc. A Non-Profit, Research and Advocacy	53%
Organization PREVIEW THE INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED PHILOSOPHY, PUBLIC POLICY,AND WORLD AFFAIRS R Homepage Global Network of Consultants @ R, Inc Applied Philosophy: An Interactive Online Journal THE INSTITUTE is a Non-Profit Organization --an affiliate of R  Found by: FAST Search http://www.rd-inc.com/Institute.html   [ Translate ]

46. Deep Art	52%
This site features Deep Art, a long-running progressive rock show on public radio, as well as a resource site for progressive rock from around the world.  Found by: Open Directory Project http://deepart.itgo.com/    [ Translate ]

47. Links2Go: Public Policy	52%
Links and topics related to Public Policy.  Found by: MSN Web Search http://www.links2go.com/topic/Public_Policy   [ Translate ]

48. NVEDC - Sponsors - Mason Enterprise Center at the Institute for Public Policy of GMU	52%
Mason Enterprise Center at the Institute of Public Policy houses the Center for Regional Analysis which was established in the early 1990s as a locus of GMU's efforts to conduct research on the National Capital Region and the State of Virginia's economies  Found by: FAST Search http://www.northernvirginia.org/sponsors/publicpolicy-gmu.html   [ Translate ]

49. National Academy of Public Administration	51%
nonpartisan, nonprofit organization chartered by Congress to improve government performance.Development Group for Alternative Policies,  The  Found by: Yahoo! http://www.napawash.org/    [ Translate ]

50. Institute for Public Policy	51%
Dedicated to bringing public perspectives into the policy process and advancing the science of survey research.  Found by: WebCrawler http://www.unm.edu/~instpp/index.htm   [ Translate ]

51. MP3.com: free mp3 downloads online cd jukebox MP3 music greeting cards	50%
Largest collection of free MP3s to play or download, free MP3 software, My.MP3.com FREE personal online jukebox for CDs and MP3s, music news and MP3...  Found by: AltaVista http://www.mp3.com/lyrics/67/67509.html   [ Translate ]

52. U.S. Political Parties	50%
Left? or Right? or Centrist? or Moderate? Down the middle?  The left-right paradigm comes from the seating arrangement in the old French Assembly (1789).  Found by: WebCrawler http://www.ccnet.com/~suntzu75/parties.htm   [ Translate ]

53. Center for Public Policy	50%
St.Lawrence Institute Coming Soon! Acton Institute Alabama Family Alliance Calvert Institute The Charter School Resource Center  The Ethan Allen Institute Found by: FAST Search, WebCrawler http://www.public-policy.org/   [ Translate ]

54. Links2Go: Public Policy	49%
Links and topics related to Public Policy.  Found by: MSN Web Search http://www.links2go.com/channel/Public_Policy   [ Translate ]

55. The Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) and  The ProgressivePolicyInstitute (PPI)	49%
Found by: Excite, WebCrawler http://www.dlcppi.org/    [ Translate ]

56. Development Group for Alternative Policies,  The	48%
works to ensure that the knowledge, priorities and efforts of people in the South inform decisions made in the North about their economies and the environments in which they live.Competitive EnterpriseInstitute Found by: Yahoo! http://www.igc.apc.org/dgap/    [ Translate ]

57. The Progressive Rock Web Site	48%
Comprehensive guide to progressive music on the Internet: Discographies, labels, bands, web sites, concert information, radio shows, pictures, extensive links and home of the Gibraltar weekly newsletter.  Found by: Open Directory Project http://www.progrock.net/    [ Translate ]

58. U.S. Senator Paul Simon Cautions American's Against Turning Inward	48%
By Adam Josephson CONTRIBUTING WRITER Paul Simon, the senior United States Senator from Illinois who ran for the Democratic nomination for President in 1988, hailed the need for public service an...  Found by: Excite http://www.netspace.org/herald/issues/102296/simon.f.html   [ Translate ]

59. Hyundai: Driving Is Believing	47%
The official site of Hyundai Motor America. See the 2000 Accent, Elantra, Sonata and Tiburon models and the Hyundai Advantage - America's best...  Found by: AltaVista http://www.hyundaiusa.com/events/brochure/campus/tiburon/inside/ratings/events/sonata/index.htm   [ Translate ]

60. Competitive EnterpriseInstitute	47%
includes CEI's environmental, legal, and regulatory studies and features a topic index.Association forPublic Policy Analysis and Management  Found by: Yahoo! http://www.CEI.org/    [ Translate ]

61. Considerations for an Acceptable Use Policy for a Commercial Enterprise	46%
Computer security policies are the high cover that allow the computer security professional to effectively operate in an enterprise where the ultimate goal is to produce a product at a cost that allows the company to successfully compete in the marketplace.  Found by: Open Directory Project http://www.sans.org/infosecFAQ/policy/considerations.htm   [ Translate ]

62. Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management	45%
for graduate and undergraduate public policy programs, research institutions, and individuals in the public policy and management field.  Found by: Yahoo! http://qsilver.queensu.ca/appam/    [ Translate ]

63. Amazon.com Books Search Results	44%
Search: Books. All Products. Browse: Choose a subject: Art & Architecture. Audiobooks. Bargain Books. Biographies & Memoirs. Business & Investing....  Found by: AltaVista http://www.amazonfilm.com/exec/obidos/Author=Riehl,%20Riehl/    [ Translate ]

64. Mackinac Center for Public Policy (517) 631-0900	43%
The Case for School ChoiceNew study shows how Americas history of freedom points the way to the future of education reform-in the form of greater school choice for all parents.[more on education] Time to Let Michigan Citizens Choose  Their BoozeA  Found by: FAST Search http://www.mackinac.org/    [ Translate ]

65. Annenberg Public Policy Center	43%
APPC Areas of Research PUBLICATIONS View our reports online EVENTS View the APPC online calendar CONTACT INFORMATION Our address, phone, fax, and email EMPLOYMENT Job openings at APPC OUR PARENT ORGANIZATIONS  The Annenberg School for Communication  The  Found by: FAST Search, Yahoo! http://www.appcpenn.org/    [ Translate ]

66. Morrison Institute for Public Policy	43%
Morrison Institute for Public Policy is a resource for public policy research, expertise, and insight,  The Institute conducts research on public policy matters & informs policy makers and residents about issues of importance, and advises leaders on choices and actions.  Found by: WebCrawler, Yahoo! http://www.asu.edu/copp/morrison/    [ Translate ]

67. socialist.org: socialists on the internet	42%
Contains a no-nonsense, selective list of socialist parties based on their actual ability to win elections or change policy in their countries, along with their adherence to