FastCounter by bCentral
FastCounter by bCentral
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Subscribe to Synergy net
synergynet archive
Hosted by eGroups.com
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Message board and Live voice chat at
http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/mbs.cgi/mb843898
and
http://www.coolboard.com/boardshow.cfm/mb=632494864835909
and
http://live.av.com/scripts/community.dll?ep=16&groupid=2117&ck=
Search
this site
powered by FreeFind
GO
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Multicrawl
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
Web
Hosting
>
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
ppppflaump@cfl.rr.com - http://www.wiredbrain.net/
post.htm
on the VAT ( Value added tax ) or national sales tax
initiative.htm
ELECTION 2000
issues.htm
symbian.htm
http://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/ssact/title04/0423.htm
Basic Education as a federal responsibility:
The national interest and general welfare require a large federal role in public compulsory education. This was not as true in the last centuries but is clearly one of the most important if not the most important federal function. "A 2000 PricewaterhouseCoopers report found that intellectual assets now account for 78 percent of the total value of American S&P 500 companies."
"According to a 2000 OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] report, since 1985, the expansion of knowledge-based industries has outpaced gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the developed countries. Knowledge-based industries now account for more than half of OECD-wide GDP." Welcome, to the Knowledge Age.BUT since we are a federal system and have a long history of local school boards we can not just start from scratch.Each state with consultations with local school system should come up with a plan to provide basic education - reading ( the nation reads ) writing ( the nation writes ) algebra and other math ( the nation reasons and calculates ) students knows geography, history, government, humanities, the sciences and the scientific methods - all standards and evaluations set by the states.
Then there is a calculation of what the direct provision of these educational services cost.
Then the application for expected expenditures for the next quarter of 75 % of the costs as a entitlement - with adjustments for over and under payments from the last payment.
The states should report how much would be used for property tax relief - how much for salaries ( and if there would be a state wide pay scales with steps - grades like the GS system ).
These costs should not include support, administration, transportation, athletics, construction, maintenance, bureaucracy, etc. Because these costs remain state and local responsibility and are too much a can of worms.
The national estimated cost per student for instruction could be fairly clear at about $ 2,500 for elementary and $ 4,500 for secondary ( half the total cost ) x 50 million students ( 1 million x $ 1000 = 1 billion ) so 50 million x $ 3,500 = $ 175 Billion x 75 % = $ 132 billion. Using language similar to that for social services in the SS Act.. From the sums appropriated ( or by entitlement as it used to be ) and the allotment under this subpart, subject to the conditions set forth in this section, the Secretary ( DOE ) shall from time to time pay to each State that has a plan developed in accordance with regulations an amount equal to 75 per centime of the total sum expended under the plan in meeting the costs of State, district, county, or other local basic educational instructional services.
The federal government will pay 75 % of teachers salaries and benefits ( involved in direct instruction = about 2.5 million teachers @ $ 30,000 = 75 billion ) and left to the states and local school boards, all the other costs - administration, football, transportation, construction, utilities, then: We could become a modern civilized society with a world class school system, social justice, economic growth, and political democracy.
There could be substantial tax relief on property taxes - standards set for teacher certification - much better salaries for some low paid teachers and salary grades for high performing teachers tied to the GS federal scales:http://www.seemyad.com/gov/salary.htm
The big problems in American Public education are:
There is no career stream for classroom teachers - pay is only based on seniority and there is not much difference if you stay in instruction from start to finish.
There has been a vast growth in administrative overhead from 15 % in the 1960's to 50 % today so increases in resources are absorbed by overhead. In the last decade there has been a vast underhanded growth in ESE ( special education ) from 5 % of population to 25 % and a jungle of paperwork without functional outcomes.
The labeling of students make standards even harder - ESE students are not counted or counted differently - so if someone doesn't learn they are learning disabled and labeled - given more resources - and excluded from the testing of school outcomes.
There has been for decades weak support for standards - support in general but backing off when the tire hits the road and students actually FLUNK and are
We have to adjust to the new political realities - mass marketing of characters as products.Electoral choice is a weak choice for most people. People care more about household products such as toothpaste or breakfast cereal than their congress person.
There are a minority who project on politics their passions and loves and hates that have little political meaning - Some have been harmed by change - industrial or cultural - some have guilt, shame or projections - anti-foreign, protection, abortion, anti-establishment conspiracies - the Clinton's case ( reverse of the Nixon Case )
The base of politics today is emotion and sediment ( largely negative ) - as you see every day in the media - commercials are founded on the "hook" or how to tie the image of a product to a passion - sex, greed, shame, hope, hype - and the billions spent on commercials must work. Cars are creating status and exciting for drivers, products make you happy, sexy and smart, "you get inside it - and it gets inside you".
So we have maybe 10 % interested in issues - real choices based on interests - 20 % concerned with psycho-dynamics ( how does it feel ? What do I like or hate - true believer who projects their passions on the open screen ) - 30 % on transit and superficial reasons - talk shows, appearances and "character". makes 60 % who even pay attention and the rest don't care and don't vote at all.
If there was a depression or war or real civil unrest ( such as in the civil rights, Vietnam case ) maybe people would care and pay attention. We do not have ideological politics or do people carry little consistent theories in their heads - they have optioning that are generated by the moment and a moment latter could be different. That's the way it is - so why blame political campaigns for doing what they have to do to win ?
Our constitution was set up with the idea that Republican government depends on rational elites - better educated, better motivated, with an sense of civic virtue, civilly minded, public-spirited, community-minded - and a model of opinion where the leaders ideas are passed down. Real issues for real people can not be left to mass politics.
The problems such as Social Security is too complex - of course "they" just want more for less or nothing -
The real problem is the decline in the elite caused by economic change and the rise of the sunbelt and Wild West.
There is a weak media elite, weak academic leadership, weak economic leadership ( lost in a tangle of special interest )
The reason congress spends more time in ideological showmanship because the establishment is so fractured. In the old days there would be power brokers to make them behave. ( Bankers, editors, older politicians, party leaders - could control wild rhetoric and excessive patrician passions ) Both Clinton and Newt are outsiders without proper credentials and behavior did not conform to expected standards.
We have to adjust to the new realities - mass marketing of " characters " as products. It ends up as their ad agencies vs. our ad agencies, their commercials vs. our commercials - the selling of the presidency. Not beautiful, not wise, not true - but that's the way it is and why money matters- better ads and better coverage -
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/09/imf-europe A huge U.S. trade deficit could turn into a serious problem for the American economy if foreigners were to decide suddenly to dump dollar-denominated assets, which could push the U.S. currency down sharply and trigger steep declines in U.S. stock and bond markets http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/08/news-world-economy Referring to the various threats, the IMF said, "
The possibility that these imbalances may unwind in a disorderly fashion remains a risk to the global expansion." As for oil, the IMF said oil prices are about 20 percent higher than the IMF had assumed in its economic forecast, an increase of $5 a barrel. It estimated this should add $40 billion over a year's time to the oil import bills of industrial countries and cut their economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.
salestax.htm
The question of the commons in the sky:Airports would agree to a pattern or take off and landing which then would be sold to airlines - airspace would fit the capacity of getting in and out - and airline schedules would be limited to what the airports can handle. Ticket prices would reflect the supply and demand of time and location specific travel. Travelers would pay more for high demand times and locations. People going for pleasure could select a secondary airport and odd times, business would pay a premium for best sites at the best times.
The theme of public policy for the next generation is how services are delivered. Various patterns of public, private for and not for profit organization will bring competition, modern management practice and benefit / cost analysis into common services.
The air transport situation is a classic case of mixed up systems where the mixture has not worked. Deregulation of the airline carriers, city-state private airports, public air traffic controllers, regulation of the safety of air traffic and aircraft by the FAA and the various unions and interest groups all going after their own interest and can easily screw up the whole system.
The system analysis of the whole system seems to be weak.
They all depend on each other but seem to rather fight and blame each other then give up their any of special interests. Airports try to move more "tin" than they can handle because airlines want to schedule more flights to be competitive and not let others move it. Airlines are supported by public airports, weather, traffic controllers and taxpayers pay a lot of the construction cash as are road and barge transport. Airplanes benefit from defense contracts and research.
The idea is to change air traffic control into a non-profit modern organization such as been happening in Canada and Europe. A semi-private corporation could move faster on new technology.
Then airports should be able to compete for services and finance expansions and ground transport.
The national regulation of safety should be set by global systems analysis of capacity and safety issues. Each part of the system needs to fit together and adjust for bad weather and heavy load factors. We need a system designed for a billion passengers per year, then two billion or what ever we can manage.
Time to come clean, time to win:Remember Ross Parot and those charts on the federal deficits, an issue that both parties want to avoid. It was called the 600 pound guerilla no one want to notice. Now the issue is Social Security and Medicare is an 800 blue monkey no one want to handle except in unreal ways by pretending it will go away. Those now retiring were born 65 years ago in 1935 with aa birth cohort of a litle over two million. Many were not covered - farm and domestic labor - and come under SSI, and other Aid to the Elderly - about 500,000 claim Medicare and Social Security next year. In 1950 four million babies who live longer, augmented by immigration will make 2 million or more claims in 2015. ( In very round numbers ) We have a 10 trillion economy and 20 % in federal programs. In a little over a generation we can double the economy to 20 - 25 trillion, 20 % is 4 trillion budget.
The cost of Medicare in the 1960’s was 1/10 of what is now per person, 4 % of GDP in Health to about 11 % and going to 20 % without market pressures. If no real change is made in benefits ( likely to increase such as drugs ) and cost increase only slightly more than inflation, retirement benefits will absorb 75 % of a four trillion federal budget - equal to about 3.0 trillion, ( 10 % of a 25 trillion GDP ) and about 20 % of all personal income will be going to support the program for the retired one way or another. This means all other federal programs have the same dollar amount they now have - a real cut of more than 50 % - for parks, defense, agriculture, education, transportation, et al. Not realistic -
There is only one way out - let’s face it !A plan to subsidize savings so that in twenty years 65 % of all families have a private retirement plan with benefits equal to 80 % of their income is the only way out. Private insurance and free markets ( subsidized for the poor ) such as the Federal Employees ( supported by Bradley ) have is the only way that makes sense. Benefits must be means tested and run privately but subsidized for those in need.
The vast increase in private saving and investment would mean we can double the economy in a generation and afford to pay the bills while not ruining the economy. If Bush dropped his tax plan and took on Gore on the realities of Social Security / Medicare Gore would fumble and look dishonest - because he know the truth but is afraid of the truth as he did on meet the press. It could stash victory from the jaws of defeat.
The only way to get such a privatization plan is to triangulate democrats ( many support such a realistic idea ) and win the middle. On education Bush is more realistic and supports competition, these two great issues with a pay down of the debt ( small targeted tax cuts ) can still win. Bush would really have to bone up on a complex issue - have charts- and sell the program. http://www.aamc.org/advocacy/issues/commssns/nbcfm.htm
The plan, offered by Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) and Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) received 10 of the super-majority 11 votes (out of 17) needed for the commission to make recommendations to President Clinton and the Congress.
The commission has since disbanded without a report issued to the Congress and President Clinton. However, both Sen. Breaux and Rep. Thomas have indicated that they intend to use the commission document as a basis for introducing Medicare reform legislation. Under a premium-based support model, private plans would submit their plan and premiums for approval to a Medicare Board in order to compete with one another and with traditional Medicare fee-for-service.
The Breaux/ Thomas plan specifically states that submitted premiums from the government-run FFS or private plans would not include calculations of "all non-insurance functions and special payments now in Medicare." Medicare spending is projected to reach 4.4 % to 8 % percent of GDP by 2030. This means nearly quardupling the resources our nation would have to commit to cont
http://www.kaiserpermanente.org/ give a lot more for a lot less by having the doctors own the hospital, charge a flat per capita fee, and control cost.
They made more by doing less rather than the other way around. What is now called HMO is not HMO but an insurance scheme to give incentives to control costs.
Then they are under-funded a wild attempt to balance the budget and then attacked in not giving everyone everything they think they should have. A few billion dollars could make Kaiser Permanente national. We now have the worse of both worlds - a great compromise like in 1835 about Slavery - In 1935 when Social Security started, people lived to an average of 65, doctors could not do much against infection, flu, pneumonia, tuberculosis, etc. In 1965 when Medicare started it was different ( Miracle drugs ) and we were at the beginning of a technological revolution, Now they can keep anyone alive until the money runs out. When will we get real ? A simple system of supports for private insurance or HMO including publicly run or non-profit hospitals with everyone on salary - ( no incentives to do more than necessary
) To get more than the basics you pay more than the basic - if you don't have the money then you get what you are given and say "thank you".From the Concord coalition: Medicare faces a two-fold dilemma.
The program, as currently structured, is financially unsustainable. Medicare costs are projected to grow faster than the payroll taxes and premiums that are dedicated to support the program. Costs are also projected to grow faster than the overall economy, and faster than can be reasonably supported by the federal budget unless spending priorities change.At the same time, compared to the health insurance coverage available to most working age Americans, Medicare offers a Spartan, out-of-date insurance package that many argue is too stingy. Others contend Medicare is too generous compared to the protections generally available to younger people. Even though the program faces financial insolvency in the future, today there is pressure to add new benefits, such as coverage for people younger than 65, prescription drugs, treatment of mental illness, protection against catastrophic expenses, and long-term care for chronically ill people.In addition, traditional Medicare makes no attempt to coordinate or manage care; it reimburses the costs of any medical treatment that beneficiaries receive, regardless of whether the treatments are cost-effective or medically effective.
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
Normal Healthy Reactions and negations: A new Third or Fourth Way
What a dull world it would be if we all agreed, if we were all alike
and what a uncreative and unproductive our society would be if there was
only one right way of thinking and doing. In the celebration of diversity
we should acknowledge the creative force of discussion, disagreement, and
conflict.
When dealing with conflict, different values, different life experience,
different cultures, different interests, different styles the first step
is to acknowledge the legitimacy of differences and a desire to look for
common humanity and common ground.
The theory of conflict resolution or
peace theories is a process of building confidence, listening and repeating
the concerns of the other side - " I hear what you saying, I understand
what you care about, want, need, and desire - I recognize your rights and
desires. " Now these are mine - where do we have room to come together
?
For example, Jerusalem - the Palestinians need some sovereignty over
East Jerusalem, and some rights over the holy places.
The Israelis need
the same thing. If both sides make dogmatic claims and say they can’t compromise
it seems an serious dilemma and could cause possible violence.
By raising the issue to a higher level joint solutions can be found
- different definitions of sovereignty, and creative common institutions
progress can be make. If both sides understand they have to live together
and give the others enough so they can have reconciliation then they can
create cross cultural institutions, linkages, contacts etc. Such a process
has worked in Northern Ireland, in the American South, South Africa, Central
America, so that the populations know and trust each other so they can
live and work together.
The dumb politics is to augment differences, to always attack any proposals
made by the opposition and exaggerated the problem. How about a new politics
- a third or fourth way - where one side responds positively to the suggestions
of the other side. " Well, that is an interesting idea - maybe we can work
something out " approach. In issues as complex as Social Security and Medicare
serious negations and compromise are required and should be recognized
rather than misleading numbers, programs and slogans by both sides.
We had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong,
Do voters and believers have defects because they refuse to believe
and act as they should ? Or do organizations have a hubris of great claims
on people’s loyalty, credibility, or subservience.
Is public policy theology ? Is theology dogma ? If it is an article
of faith that tax cuts are good even if it creates deficits, slows growth,
destroys wealth and progress ( GOP ) then that limits options;
OR you should tax the rich to benefit the poor ( fight for you against
them ) therefore discourage enterprise, wealth creation, and the ability
to fund public programs.
Instead of study and analysis of the real world - others experience,
expert studies;
But instead we had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong
:
The bluntly worded declaration by the Vatican office that oversees Catholic
doctrine said that followers of non-Christian faiths have "gravely deficient"
chances for salvation and that other Christian churches have "defects,"
partly because they do not recognize the authority of the pope.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/updates/lat_vatican000906.htm
http://msnbc.com/news/455300.asp#BODY
There is growing concern that the Bush Campaign is in deep do-do.
There
is movement to replace critical people and strategy. ." And given the gravity
of the situation and the relatively short amount of time until November,
Bush needs to get on the offensive soon. Updated governor vulnerability
ratings.
http://www.voter.com/home/news/0,3402,2--,00.html
Do we hate ideology ?
The best description of American Democracy is that done a more than
a century and half ago by Alexis de Tocqueville. American are described
as being practical, materialist, pragmatic, with a passion for slogans
and the hoopla of political activity.
The inevitable democratic trend was
due to the growth of the propertied middle classes, ( economic determinism
) new technology in communications, transportation and education ( technological
determinism ), and maybe most important the Protestant Christian theology
of the individual ( historical and psychological determinism ).
The people want to believe that they think for themselves as individuals
but are very easily influenced by their social group and the desire to
fit in and be popular. Tocqueville felt there was a dumping down in democracy
and a decline in real individualism and intellectual independence. Civic
virtue, the organized national goals, greater idealist passions, the need
for a collective organic society is wrapped in generalizations and slogans
of a obsessive, bias, and blind local and national patriotism. American
were described as people in gray suits, social conformist who feared being
different from the pack.
Since the New Deal, Old Democrats taxed Republicans to provide benefits
to democrats thereby buy their votes.
Their ideology was a form of social
democracy promoting equality and social justice. Old Republican were social,
economic and political conservatives that resisted big government and believed
in the ideology of personal liberty.
The American economy produced a much bigger middle class. Now the democrats
began to tax democrats to benefit other democrats. Republicans began to
get working class and southern votes based on tax, welfare, defense and
social - racial issues. New Democrats reacted to the charge they were the
"tax and spend" party, soft on crime, soft on communist and defense, soft
on welfare and morals, and the new Leadership became centralist as fiscal
conservatives with support for the war industries, the war on drugs, tough
on crime, the death penalty, welfare reform, balanced budgets, and other
republican issues.
The Old "new democrats" want to tax republicans to benefit
their constitutions to reinforce their base to gain some of the populist
appeal to those who feel they have not gotten enough from the growing economy.
New Republicans are integrationist, argue for social justice through
educational opportunity, support basic social security and Medicare, and
their higher purposes are to be inclusive, practical, compromise, and non-ideological
in reaction to the charge that they were mean, selfish, racist, sexist,
ideological anti-government extremist and religious fundamentalist.
The cycle has been first the New Deal - tax the republicans to benefit
the working class urban democrats. This kept the party in power for more
than half a century. Social security, Medicare are the democratic poster
child.
Then the " Southern Strategy" with Nixon and Reagan broke the Democratic
monopoly with social, racial, ideological, anti-Communist, right to life
combination. Reagan and Gingrish used the slogans of freedom, individual
liberty, the dangers of big government, to package a right wing ideological
movement with gun control the poster child of individualism.
The support
for anti-government slogans declined with prosperity and a centralist Clinton
administration.
Now Gore needed to mobilize the old democrats, tax the rich to benefit
the working class, us vs. them - plus the pragmatic moderate fiscal policy
that help produce prosperity. He does not intend to spend a lot of money.
Bush is a southern strategy person who needs to attract more moderate working
class and suburban voters.
The message of moderate republican governors
about coalition building and practical policy doesn’t seem to be getting
through.
Politesse: Idiots ?
Why when an issue become political does it become so stupid ? It doesn’t
in Europe ( as much ) as it does here. As in war the first casualty is
reason and truth.
The drug war - has not reduced drugs or even raised prices - but since
it doesn’t work do more of the same and get into a civil war in Columbia
?
The only effect can be to move production and distribution. Put a million
citizens into jail while treatment programs are under funded and full -
be sure to target young black males so they will have no useful future
in society.
The issue of Cuba and Castro - since sanctions don’t work keep them
for ever ? Because of the Cuban Vote in Florida and New Jersey let the
extreme control national policy ? Make no move to promote civil society
and racial justice and democracy but support white anti-democratic refugee
groups.
School reform - since little or no progress has been made in the inequality
or the quality of education since 1964 and Title I and other reform programs
- keep doing the same - and follow the advice of teachers unions, school
boards, and false Schools of Education ( an oxymoron ) experts who have
shown they can not improve schools ?
Since we can’t agree on abortion lets keep fighting and insulting each
other ?
The constitution calls for impeachment of elected officials for high
crimes as a rare or last resort so let’s have a huge case conducted by
lawyers on the judiciary committee from the house - when they should know
no crime was committed ( a crime is an act that can be prosecuted under
law - not just allegations and calling people names like cheater or liar
) and no prosecution is possible in this case ?
Since there will be a great deal fewer payers and a lot more receivers
of social security and Medicare let’s not discuss raising taxes or reducing
benefits and/or making them means tested - let’s pretend that we have a
quick cheap fix, no pain and all gain ?
Should add missile defense, the surplus - the social security "trust"
fund, ( when you are in debt there is no surplus )
The trillion of dollars
the government owes itself does not pay itself interest - the account is
not in surplus unless you count unpaid accounts -
Assembly, have provided a unique opportunity for us all to reflect on
our common destiny, by convening what will surely be the largest gathering
of political leaders the world has ever seen.
V. Sustaining our future
Technological waves for the next 20 years
We now face an urgent need to secure the freedom of future generations
to sustain their lives on this planet – and we are failing to do it. We
have been plundering our children’s heritage to pay for unsustainable practices.
Changing this is a challenge for rich and poor countries alike
These institutions must reflect the realities of the time, including
the distribution of power. And they must serve as an arena for states to
co-operate with non-state actors, including global companies. In many cases
they need to be complemented by less formal policy networks, which can
respond more quickly to the changing global agenda.
The gross disparities of wealth in today’s world, the miserable conditions
in which well over a billion people live, the prevalence of endemic conflict
in some regions, and the rapid degradation of the natural environment:
all these combine to make the present model of development unsustainable,
unless remedial measures are taken by common agreement.
http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/summ.htm
Globalization:
The real issues of our times ( again ) is not being talked about or
does the political process clarify the choices about the future. We desperately
need to better understand who we are and where we are going.
The mundane
and almost evil issues of greed, benefits, character narrowly defined,
are out of any context as to the purposes, goals, missions, or tasks of
a modern civilized society and changing national global realities.
Technological waves for the next 20 years
There are four steps to modern progressive global societies.
Self-government - Personal responsibilities and initiative - the idea
of self government both as a personal and political system and with economic
open markets. Competition produces both prosperity and inequality, the
rich get richer but the poor need not get poorer if the second condition
is enlivened - limits on personal or family greed - electoral reform is
a minor reflection of a much greater issue of freedom, democracy when power
and money is widely unequal.
Responsibility, because of inequality and the danger of corruption by
concentrations of power of money and military, there is a clear need for
social dependability of individual and corporations who have developed
civic duties and responsibilities beyond themselves - including supporting
the rule of law and public goods purchased through government to create
and maintain a civilized public culture.
The moral or family issues is
a thin reflection of the great issues of duty and responsibility. Social
consciousness comes from the third condition -
Trust - building confidence over time and space between groups, races,
societies, companies requires an open and honest methods of resolving disputes.
Trust is required to do business beyond a few friends and family and does
not come easily.
The religion, race and class divides are a weak reflection
of the great issues of faith and trust in neighborhoods, communities, cities,
states, nations, and beyond our borders.
The third condition sums it all
up -
Humanism - Ecology - Environment - Expanding intellectual, spiritual,
and technical capacities of the individuals in a global society including
developing institution as linkages between peoples, companies, non-profits,
foundations ( NGO s ) governments, associations, panels, conferences, professional
groups, media companies, educational institutions, the United Nations,
IMF, World Bank, Churches, women’s groups, environmental groups, and the
other of thousands of connections. GreenPeace, Doctors without Borders,
need to be matched by alliances concerned about the great majority of people
who suffer, mainly women and children.
A Global Agenda:
Expand the institutions of democracy - on a local basis by public finance
and regulation of elections, and global support for the civic culture -
the media, education, small business, internet access, rather than military
intervention which should only be the last resort.
Expand international law on corruption, massive civic crime, human rights
abuse, and on a local basis getting over the learning gap - black 17 year
olds performing as white 13 year olds - by what even means necessary -
smaller, better, more competitive schools.
Restoring Faith in institutions, public and private by serious reforms
-
The model is integration of labor, management, and the public as official
members of community.
The various European models of joint committees and
structures should be useful. This is what was called industrial democracy.
Re thinking welfare and social programs with a focus on women and children
using new public private non-profit models.
Breakdown anywhere causes problems everywhere ? Progress, reason, wealth
and investment anywhere impacts everywhere ! We need islands of hope in
a sea of troubles. One hope is the Russians are smart and many technically
trained.
There is a global shortage of technical people so there should
be something there.
The issue is not the personal fault of the people or bad habits from
socialism - but the old system is not gone but dysfunctional and has not
been replaced by a new functional one.
The pure Western Models never fitted
Russia - either Marxism or capitalist - as so many writers of the late
19th Century ( Leo Tolstoy et al ) described so beautifully.
The Russia
spirit requires collective visions, the soul needs great causes, they are
not a island of traders and merchants as France thought of England - but
dreamers and poets, saints and thieves. .
The liberation of Russia has always come from the soil, the language,
and the Orthodox Church - peasants and their MIRs.
The collective village
needs to move into the industrial age.
The fact there was no revolution,
no taking down, cleaning out, removal of the old and no image in the construction
of the new but the old system just collapsed like the Roman Empire from
it's own weight left nothing in place that works very well. Before you
destroy a system you should have a new one in mind but that's not what
happened.
I think a romantic, spiritual and mystic movement will sweep over the
country - prophets and wizards - witches and goblins are on the lose, Leo
in his while robes among the people, if not a Rasputin with a new image
of "mother Russia" that will mobilize energy and pride. We can hope it
is not too undemocratic and authoritarian but will be both because it will
be Russian not American or Western European, or Chinese - and we can hope
it will make things go better for all of us - This is the mother of all
social disasters or the passage for a great people to find their proper
place and role in the world. We need to pay attention and not be stupid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_901000/901963.stm
Pot-holed roads - or roads that end nowhere - twisted streetlamps, dilapidated
trams, wooden shacks on the outside of towns... It's all testament to a
country whose physical fabric is falling apart.
"
There has been very little capital investment in Russia for a decade.
The money received by Russia from abroad has been largely siphoned off
( stolen ) into the shadow economy, while low tax collection rates in Russia
mean few resources can be raised internally for investment.
Education and healthcare have suffered severe hardships. "
Experience suggests that social unrest - gangs - drugs crime war lords
- sort of a Somalia - West Africa - Congo - with Atomic bombs - jets -
tanks -
Since there is no way of fixing "the problem" at a global scale - simple,
small, practical islands of rational development need to develop in St.
Petersburg - out East ( Far East ) by free trade zones - development districts
outside the hopeless legal and administrative tangles.
More power in a Palm Pilot than on the Apollo 10:
The accelerating rate of change forecast more change in the next century
than in the last 10,000 years.
The increases in the rate of change between
paradigms began at about 5000 years as ideas spread slowly - domestic animals,
agriculture, metallurgy, then cities, bureaucracy and empires - then 500
years - printing, navigation, mathematics, deep mining up to the 18th century.
Then 100 years with potatoes, steam and steel, electric and chemical, communications
and computers. Now in 25 years ideas are activated that used to take a
century, then 12.5 years will have a century of 20th century progress,
then 6.25 years what used to take a century and so forth.
The acceleration
of the rate of change has been going on for a long time - it just gets
faster and faster.
Therefore if Nano computer would have taken 50 years in the past it
can be done in 12.5 years.
The speed of application of stem cells to build
body parts, cloned cells used as normal therapies, use of immunization
in treatments of ongoing virus infections and cancers, genetic engineered
plants and animals as a normal accepted process, all being implemented
at great speed. Even in a slow bulky industries such as cars - the fuel
cell will move along more quickly than such technologies would have in
the past. This really effects markets, marketing, and business planning
in very fundamental ways.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/business/index.shtml
go to weekly then global business at the bottom of page
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computer Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Paperback - January 2000)
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Hardcover - January 1999)
Darwin Among the Machines :
The Evolution of Global Intelligence (Helix
Books) by George B. Dyson (Paperback - October 1998)
http://www8.bcity.com/book_bargains/spiritual_machines.htm
There are only three or four issues that have dominated Western then
Global Politics for the last few centuries.
The desire for liberty ( freedom
from excessive state control ) led to the need for self government. Since
we don’t want kings, priest and tribal chiefs to tell us what to do and
how to think and behave we have to do more thinking on our own and make
more complex value judgments. This is the first modern political issue
- now taking the form of the corruption by money of politics, the talk
about big corporations, media and money having excessive control over our
lives.
The second issue is due to the fact that God so loved the poor he made
a lot of them. Equity is an ancient issue that arose in the first popular
government in Greece and repeats itself in many forms.
The poor majorities
under the leadership of a demigod or tyrant will pander to the mob to redistribute
the wealth, forgive debts ( or inflate the currency to make debts payable
in cheap money ) and pander to the passions, the desire for bread and circuses,
and foster other popular superstitions. Now this is called class warfare
or the needs of the needy vs. the greed of the greedy. Benefits paid for
by the rich for the benefit of the poor, public welfare bribes are offered
to buy votes.
Therefore, the third issue is how to protect and expand freedom from
the dangers of Democratic systems - positive freedom is the ability to
make WISE choices unlike a passive liberty which is the negative freedom
from coercion and the right to be wrong.
There is no positive freedom in
ignorance, superstition, prejudice, and in short in being stupid.
Therefore
a civic state depends on education and a civic culture. Otherwise it become
popular tyranny either of the right or left. This issue now takes the form
of education and mobility. If we can really teach poor children to gain
skills we can also teach them to behave and act like other middle class
responsible people.
The last issue is the global vs. national views - the role of humanity
and transcendental values over day to day benefits and who gets what, when
and how. Now this issue comes out as having goals greater than ourselves,
the uses of riches, the nature of the environment, social responsibility,
family values, and the proper respect for the opinions of mankind and the
moral standards of a community of nations.
Real Reform.com
American Association for Constitutional Reform
The issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where
I can find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century
electoral structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the
money required to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to
change the structure of the elections - a change from independent single
member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution
) to a system with clear party responsibility.
The parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and
responsibilities OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican
or Democrat has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should
be some implied contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party
at all.
The national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The congress has become 535 independent small business people without
much discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because
the talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark )
so there is some connection between executive and congressional authority
is one suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate
federal elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs
to be replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational
process of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not
a scramble of state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court
decisions along with the changing results of infighting within fractional
political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law
should not be in doubt - this does now effect the bill of rights - but
only the structure of he process of running elections.
In the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can
be much fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core
of democracy - they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines
the foundations of freedom and representative government.
Federal Elections in the Constitution:
In order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom of political speech, competition, and the free expression of
the will of the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate
has a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not
withstanding any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past
circumstances.
( replaces: Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment
17 on the Senate, Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president
)
Federal Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative,
or congressional referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections,
as proposals for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws
to be enacted or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an
election on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary
in the middle of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including
the nomination process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries
could be done nationally in early September with a run off in the last
week of September with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October
(Enough is enough ) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited
in their expenditures.
An even longer view:
FastCounter by bCentral
FastCounter by bCentral
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Subscribe to Synergy net
synergynet archive
Hosted by eGroups.com
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Message board and Live voice chat at
http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/mbs.cgi/mb843898
and
http://www.coolboard.com/boardshow.cfm/mb=632494864835909
and
http://live.av.com/scripts/community.dll?ep=16&groupid=2117&ck=
Search
this site
powered by FreeFind
GO
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Multicrawl
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
Web
Hosting
>
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
ppppflaump@cfl.rr.com - http://www.wiredbrain.net/
post.htm
on the VAT ( Value added tax ) or national sales tax
initiative.htm
ELECTION 2000
issues.htm
symbian.htm
http://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/ssact/title04/0423.htm
Basic Education as a federal responsibility:
The national interest and general welfare require a large federal role in public compulsory education. This was not as true in the last centuries but is clearly one of the most important if not the most important federal function. "A 2000 PricewaterhouseCoopers report found that intellectual assets now account for 78 percent of the total value of American S&P 500 companies."
"According to a 2000 OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] report, since 1985, the expansion of knowledge-based industries has outpaced gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the developed countries. Knowledge-based industries now account for more than half of OECD-wide GDP." Welcome, to the Knowledge Age.BUT since we are a federal system and have a long history of local school boards we can not just start from scratch.Each state with consultations with local school system should come up with a plan to provide basic education - reading ( the nation reads ) writing ( the nation writes ) algebra and other math ( the nation reasons and calculates ) students knows geography, history, government, humanities, the sciences and the scientific methods - all standards and evaluations set by the states.
Then there is a calculation of what the direct provision of these educational services cost.
Then the application for expected expenditures for the next quarter of 75 % of the costs as a entitlement - with adjustments for over and under payments from the last payment.
The states should report how much would be used for property tax relief - how much for salaries ( and if there would be a state wide pay scales with steps - grades like the GS system ).
These costs should not include support, administration, transportation, athletics, construction, maintenance, bureaucracy, etc. Because these costs remain state and local responsibility and are too much a can of worms.
The national estimated cost per student for instruction could be fairly clear at about $ 2,500 for elementary and $ 4,500 for secondary ( half the total cost ) x 50 million students ( 1 million x $ 1000 = 1 billion ) so 50 million x $ 3,500 = $ 175 Billion x 75 % = $ 132 billion. Using language similar to that for social services in the SS Act.. From the sums appropriated ( or by entitlement as it used to be ) and the allotment under this subpart, subject to the conditions set forth in this section, the Secretary ( DOE ) shall from time to time pay to each State that has a plan developed in accordance with regulations an amount equal to 75 per centime of the total sum expended under the plan in meeting the costs of State, district, county, or other local basic educational instructional services.
The federal government will pay 75 % of teachers salaries and benefits ( involved in direct instruction = about 2.5 million teachers @ $ 30,000 = 75 billion ) and left to the states and local school boards, all the other costs - administration, football, transportation, construction, utilities, then: We could become a modern civilized society with a world class school system, social justice, economic growth, and political democracy.
There could be substantial tax relief on property taxes - standards set for teacher certification - much better salaries for some low paid teachers and salary grades for high performing teachers tied to the GS federal scales:http://www.seemyad.com/gov/salary.htm
The big problems in American Public education are:
There is no career stream for classroom teachers - pay is only based on seniority and there is not much difference if you stay in instruction from start to finish.
There has been a vast growth in administrative overhead from 15 % in the 1960's to 50 % today so increases in resources are absorbed by overhead. In the last decade there has been a vast underhanded growth in ESE ( special education ) from 5 % of population to 25 % and a jungle of paperwork without functional outcomes.
The labeling of students make standards even harder - ESE students are not counted or counted differently - so if someone doesn't learn they are learning disabled and labeled - given more resources - and excluded from the testing of school outcomes.
There has been for decades weak support for standards - support in general but backing off when the tire hits the road and students actually FLUNK and are
We have to adjust to the new political realities - mass marketing of characters as products.Electoral choice is a weak choice for most people. People care more about household products such as toothpaste or breakfast cereal than their congress person.
There are a minority who project on politics their passions and loves and hates that have little political meaning - Some have been harmed by change - industrial or cultural - some have guilt, shame or projections - anti-foreign, protection, abortion, anti-establishment conspiracies - the Clinton's case ( reverse of the Nixon Case )
The base of politics today is emotion and sediment ( largely negative ) - as you see every day in the media - commercials are founded on the "hook" or how to tie the image of a product to a passion - sex, greed, shame, hope, hype - and the billions spent on commercials must work. Cars are creating status and exciting for drivers, products make you happy, sexy and smart, "you get inside it - and it gets inside you".
So we have maybe 10 % interested in issues - real choices based on interests - 20 % concerned with psycho-dynamics ( how does it feel ? What do I like or hate - true believer who projects their passions on the open screen ) - 30 % on transit and superficial reasons - talk shows, appearances and "character". makes 60 % who even pay attention and the rest don't care and don't vote at all.
If there was a depression or war or real civil unrest ( such as in the civil rights, Vietnam case ) maybe people would care and pay attention. We do not have ideological politics or do people carry little consistent theories in their heads - they have optioning that are generated by the moment and a moment latter could be different. That's the way it is - so why blame political campaigns for doing what they have to do to win ?
Our constitution was set up with the idea that Republican government depends on rational elites - better educated, better motivated, with an sense of civic virtue, civilly minded, public-spirited, community-minded - and a model of opinion where the leaders ideas are passed down. Real issues for real people can not be left to mass politics.
The problems such as Social Security is too complex - of course "they" just want more for less or nothing -
The real problem is the decline in the elite caused by economic change and the rise of the sunbelt and Wild West.
There is a weak media elite, weak academic leadership, weak economic leadership ( lost in a tangle of special interest )
The reason congress spends more time in ideological showmanship because the establishment is so fractured. In the old days there would be power brokers to make them behave. ( Bankers, editors, older politicians, party leaders - could control wild rhetoric and excessive patrician passions ) Both Clinton and Newt are outsiders without proper credentials and behavior did not conform to expected standards.
We have to adjust to the new realities - mass marketing of " characters " as products. It ends up as their ad agencies vs. our ad agencies, their commercials vs. our commercials - the selling of the presidency. Not beautiful, not wise, not true - but that's the way it is and why money matters- better ads and better coverage -
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/09/imf-europe A huge U.S. trade deficit could turn into a serious problem for the American economy if foreigners were to decide suddenly to dump dollar-denominated assets, which could push the U.S. currency down sharply and trigger steep declines in U.S. stock and bond markets http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/08/news-world-economy Referring to the various threats, the IMF said, "
The possibility that these imbalances may unwind in a disorderly fashion remains a risk to the global expansion." As for oil, the IMF said oil prices are about 20 percent higher than the IMF had assumed in its economic forecast, an increase of $5 a barrel. It estimated this should add $40 billion over a year's time to the oil import bills of industrial countries and cut their economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.
salestax.htm
The question of the commons in the sky:Airports would agree to a pattern or take off and landing which then would be sold to airlines - airspace would fit the capacity of getting in and out - and airline schedules would be limited to what the airports can handle. Ticket prices would reflect the supply and demand of time and location specific travel. Travelers would pay more for high demand times and locations. People going for pleasure could select a secondary airport and odd times, business would pay a premium for best sites at the best times.
The theme of public policy for the next generation is how services are delivered. Various patterns of public, private for and not for profit organization will bring competition, modern management practice and benefit / cost analysis into common services.
The air transport situation is a classic case of mixed up systems where the mixture has not worked. Deregulation of the airline carriers, city-state private airports, public air traffic controllers, regulation of the safety of air traffic and aircraft by the FAA and the various unions and interest groups all going after their own interest and can easily screw up the whole system.
The system analysis of the whole system seems to be weak.
They all depend on each other but seem to rather fight and blame each other then give up their any of special interests. Airports try to move more "tin" than they can handle because airlines want to schedule more flights to be competitive and not let others move it. Airlines are supported by public airports, weather, traffic controllers and taxpayers pay a lot of the construction cash as are road and barge transport. Airplanes benefit from defense contracts and research.
The idea is to change air traffic control into a non-profit modern organization such as been happening in Canada and Europe. A semi-private corporation could move faster on new technology.
Then airports should be able to compete for services and finance expansions and ground transport.
The national regulation of safety should be set by global systems analysis of capacity and safety issues. Each part of the system needs to fit together and adjust for bad weather and heavy load factors. We need a system designed for a billion passengers per year, then two billion or what ever we can manage.
Time to come clean, time to win:Remember Ross Parot and those charts on the federal deficits, an issue that both parties want to avoid. It was called the 600 pound guerilla no one want to notice. Now the issue is Social Security and Medicare is an 800 blue monkey no one want to handle except in unreal ways by pretending it will go away. Those now retiring were born 65 years ago in 1935 with aa birth cohort of a litle over two million. Many were not covered - farm and domestic labor - and come under SSI, and other Aid to the Elderly - about 500,000 claim Medicare and Social Security next year. In 1950 four million babies who live longer, augmented by immigration will make 2 million or more claims in 2015. ( In very round numbers ) We have a 10 trillion economy and 20 % in federal programs. In a little over a generation we can double the economy to 20 - 25 trillion, 20 % is 4 trillion budget.
The cost of Medicare in the 1960’s was 1/10 of what is now per person, 4 % of GDP in Health to about 11 % and going to 20 % without market pressures. If no real change is made in benefits ( likely to increase such as drugs ) and cost increase only slightly more than inflation, retirement benefits will absorb 75 % of a four trillion federal budget - equal to about 3.0 trillion, ( 10 % of a 25 trillion GDP ) and about 20 % of all personal income will be going to support the program for the retired one way or another. This means all other federal programs have the same dollar amount they now have - a real cut of more than 50 % - for parks, defense, agriculture, education, transportation, et al. Not realistic -
There is only one way out - let’s face it !A plan to subsidize savings so that in twenty years 65 % of all families have a private retirement plan with benefits equal to 80 % of their income is the only way out. Private insurance and free markets ( subsidized for the poor ) such as the Federal Employees ( supported by Bradley ) have is the only way that makes sense. Benefits must be means tested and run privately but subsidized for those in need.
The vast increase in private saving and investment would mean we can double the economy in a generation and afford to pay the bills while not ruining the economy. If Bush dropped his tax plan and took on Gore on the realities of Social Security / Medicare Gore would fumble and look dishonest - because he know the truth but is afraid of the truth as he did on meet the press. It could stash victory from the jaws of defeat.
The only way to get such a privatization plan is to triangulate democrats ( many support such a realistic idea ) and win the middle. On education Bush is more realistic and supports competition, these two great issues with a pay down of the debt ( small targeted tax cuts ) can still win. Bush would really have to bone up on a complex issue - have charts- and sell the program. http://www.aamc.org/advocacy/issues/commssns/nbcfm.htm
The plan, offered by Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) and Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) received 10 of the super-majority 11 votes (out of 17) needed for the commission to make recommendations to President Clinton and the Congress.
The commission has since disbanded without a report issued to the Congress and President Clinton. However, both Sen. Breaux and Rep. Thomas have indicated that they intend to use the commission document as a basis for introducing Medicare reform legislation. Under a premium-based support model, private plans would submit their plan and premiums for approval to a Medicare Board in order to compete with one another and with traditional Medicare fee-for-service.
The Breaux/ Thomas plan specifically states that submitted premiums from the government-run FFS or private plans would not include calculations of "all non-insurance functions and special payments now in Medicare." Medicare spending is projected to reach 4.4 % to 8 % percent of GDP by 2030. This means nearly quardupling the resources our nation would have to commit to cont
http://www.kaiserpermanente.org/ give a lot more for a lot less by having the doctors own the hospital, charge a flat per capita fee, and control cost.
They made more by doing less rather than the other way around. What is now called HMO is not HMO but an insurance scheme to give incentives to control costs.
Then they are under-funded a wild attempt to balance the budget and then attacked in not giving everyone everything they think they should have. A few billion dollars could make Kaiser Permanente national. We now have the worse of both worlds - a great compromise like in 1835 about Slavery - In 1935 when Social Security started, people lived to an average of 65, doctors could not do much against infection, flu, pneumonia, tuberculosis, etc. In 1965 when Medicare started it was different ( Miracle drugs ) and we were at the beginning of a technological revolution, Now they can keep anyone alive until the money runs out. When will we get real ? A simple system of supports for private insurance or HMO including publicly run or non-profit hospitals with everyone on salary - ( no incentives to do more than necessary
) To get more than the basics you pay more than the basic - if you don't have the money then you get what you are given and say "thank you".From the Concord coalition: Medicare faces a two-fold dilemma.
The program, as currently structured, is financially unsustainable. Medicare costs are projected to grow faster than the payroll taxes and premiums that are dedicated to support the program. Costs are also projected to grow faster than the overall economy, and faster than can be reasonably supported by the federal budget unless spending priorities change.At the same time, compared to the health insurance coverage available to most working age Americans, Medicare offers a Spartan, out-of-date insurance package that many argue is too stingy. Others contend Medicare is too generous compared to the protections generally available to younger people. Even though the program faces financial insolvency in the future, today there is pressure to add new benefits, such as coverage for people younger than 65, prescription drugs, treatment of mental illness, protection against catastrophic expenses, and long-term care for chronically ill people.In addition, traditional Medicare makes no attempt to coordinate or manage care; it reimburses the costs of any medical treatment that beneficiaries receive, regardless of whether the treatments are cost-effective or medically effective.
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
Normal Healthy Reactions and negations: A new Third or Fourth Way
What a dull world it would be if we all agreed, if we were all alike
and what a uncreative and unproductive our society would be if there was
only one right way of thinking and doing. In the celebration of diversity
we should acknowledge the creative force of discussion, disagreement, and
conflict.
When dealing with conflict, different values, different life experience,
different cultures, different interests, different styles the first step
is to acknowledge the legitimacy of differences and a desire to look for
common humanity and common ground.
The theory of conflict resolution or
peace theories is a process of building confidence, listening and repeating
the concerns of the other side - " I hear what you saying, I understand
what you care about, want, need, and desire - I recognize your rights and
desires. " Now these are mine - where do we have room to come together
?
For example, Jerusalem - the Palestinians need some sovereignty over
East Jerusalem, and some rights over the holy places.
The Israelis need
the same thing. If both sides make dogmatic claims and say they can’t compromise
it seems an serious dilemma and could cause possible violence.
By raising the issue to a higher level joint solutions can be found
- different definitions of sovereignty, and creative common institutions
progress can be make. If both sides understand they have to live together
and give the others enough so they can have reconciliation then they can
create cross cultural institutions, linkages, contacts etc. Such a process
has worked in Northern Ireland, in the American South, South Africa, Central
America, so that the populations know and trust each other so they can
live and work together.
The dumb politics is to augment differences, to always attack any proposals
made by the opposition and exaggerated the problem. How about a new politics
- a third or fourth way - where one side responds positively to the suggestions
of the other side. " Well, that is an interesting idea - maybe we can work
something out " approach. In issues as complex as Social Security and Medicare
serious negations and compromise are required and should be recognized
rather than misleading numbers, programs and slogans by both sides.
We had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong,
Do voters and believers have defects because they refuse to believe
and act as they should ? Or do organizations have a hubris of great claims
on people’s loyalty, credibility, or subservience.
Is public policy theology ? Is theology dogma ? If it is an article
of faith that tax cuts are good even if it creates deficits, slows growth,
destroys wealth and progress ( GOP ) then that limits options;
OR you should tax the rich to benefit the poor ( fight for you against
them ) therefore discourage enterprise, wealth creation, and the ability
to fund public programs.
Instead of study and analysis of the real world - others experience,
expert studies;
But instead we had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong
:
The bluntly worded declaration by the Vatican office that oversees Catholic
doctrine said that followers of non-Christian faiths have "gravely deficient"
chances for salvation and that other Christian churches have "defects,"
partly because they do not recognize the authority of the pope.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/updates/lat_vatican000906.htm
http://msnbc.com/news/455300.asp#BODY
There is growing concern that the Bush Campaign is in deep do-do.
There
is movement to replace critical people and strategy. ." And given the gravity
of the situation and the relatively short amount of time until November,
Bush needs to get on the offensive soon. Updated governor vulnerability
ratings.
http://www.voter.com/home/news/0,3402,2--,00.html
Do we hate ideology ?
The best description of American Democracy is that done a more than
a century and half ago by Alexis de Tocqueville. American are described
as being practical, materialist, pragmatic, with a passion for slogans
and the hoopla of political activity.
The inevitable democratic trend was
due to the growth of the propertied middle classes, ( economic determinism
) new technology in communications, transportation and education ( technological
determinism ), and maybe most important the Protestant Christian theology
of the individual ( historical and psychological determinism ).
The people want to believe that they think for themselves as individuals
but are very easily influenced by their social group and the desire to
fit in and be popular. Tocqueville felt there was a dumping down in democracy
and a decline in real individualism and intellectual independence. Civic
virtue, the organized national goals, greater idealist passions, the need
for a collective organic society is wrapped in generalizations and slogans
of a obsessive, bias, and blind local and national patriotism. American
were described as people in gray suits, social conformist who feared being
different from the pack.
Since the New Deal, Old Democrats taxed Republicans to provide benefits
to democrats thereby buy their votes.
Their ideology was a form of social
democracy promoting equality and social justice. Old Republican were social,
economic and political conservatives that resisted big government and believed
in the ideology of personal liberty.
The American economy produced a much bigger middle class. Now the democrats
began to tax democrats to benefit other democrats. Republicans began to
get working class and southern votes based on tax, welfare, defense and
social - racial issues. New Democrats reacted to the charge they were the
"tax and spend" party, soft on crime, soft on communist and defense, soft
on welfare and morals, and the new Leadership became centralist as fiscal
conservatives with support for the war industries, the war on drugs, tough
on crime, the death penalty, welfare reform, balanced budgets, and other
republican issues.
The Old "new democrats" want to tax republicans to benefit
their constitutions to reinforce their base to gain some of the populist
appeal to those who feel they have not gotten enough from the growing economy.
New Republicans are integrationist, argue for social justice through
educational opportunity, support basic social security and Medicare, and
their higher purposes are to be inclusive, practical, compromise, and non-ideological
in reaction to the charge that they were mean, selfish, racist, sexist,
ideological anti-government extremist and religious fundamentalist.
The cycle has been first the New Deal - tax the republicans to benefit
the working class urban democrats. This kept the party in power for more
than half a century. Social security, Medicare are the democratic poster
child.
Then the " Southern Strategy" with Nixon and Reagan broke the Democratic
monopoly with social, racial, ideological, anti-Communist, right to life
combination. Reagan and Gingrish used the slogans of freedom, individual
liberty, the dangers of big government, to package a right wing ideological
movement with gun control the poster child of individualism.
The support
for anti-government slogans declined with prosperity and a centralist Clinton
administration.
Now Gore needed to mobilize the old democrats, tax the rich to benefit
the working class, us vs. them - plus the pragmatic moderate fiscal policy
that help produce prosperity. He does not intend to spend a lot of money.
Bush is a southern strategy person who needs to attract more moderate working
class and suburban voters.
The message of moderate republican governors
about coalition building and practical policy doesn’t seem to be getting
through.
Politesse: Idiots ?
Why when an issue become political does it become so stupid ? It doesn’t
in Europe ( as much ) as it does here. As in war the first casualty is
reason and truth.
The drug war - has not reduced drugs or even raised prices - but since
it doesn’t work do more of the same and get into a civil war in Columbia
?
The only effect can be to move production and distribution. Put a million
citizens into jail while treatment programs are under funded and full -
be sure to target young black males so they will have no useful future
in society.
The issue of Cuba and Castro - since sanctions don’t work keep them
for ever ? Because of the Cuban Vote in Florida and New Jersey let the
extreme control national policy ? Make no move to promote civil society
and racial justice and democracy but support white anti-democratic refugee
groups.
School reform - since little or no progress has been made in the inequality
or the quality of education since 1964 and Title I and other reform programs
- keep doing the same - and follow the advice of teachers unions, school
boards, and false Schools of Education ( an oxymoron ) experts who have
shown they can not improve schools ?
Since we can’t agree on abortion lets keep fighting and insulting each
other ?
The constitution calls for impeachment of elected officials for high
crimes as a rare or last resort so let’s have a huge case conducted by
lawyers on the judiciary committee from the house - when they should know
no crime was committed ( a crime is an act that can be prosecuted under
law - not just allegations and calling people names like cheater or liar
) and no prosecution is possible in this case ?
Since there will be a great deal fewer payers and a lot more receivers
of social security and Medicare let’s not discuss raising taxes or reducing
benefits and/or making them means tested - let’s pretend that we have a
quick cheap fix, no pain and all gain ?
Should add missile defense, the surplus - the social security "trust"
fund, ( when you are in debt there is no surplus )
The trillion of dollars
the government owes itself does not pay itself interest - the account is
not in surplus unless you count unpaid accounts -
Assembly, have provided a unique opportunity for us all to reflect on
our common destiny, by convening what will surely be the largest gathering
of political leaders the world has ever seen.
V. Sustaining our future
Technological waves for the next 20 years
We now face an urgent need to secure the freedom of future generations
to sustain their lives on this planet – and we are failing to do it. We
have been plundering our children’s heritage to pay for unsustainable practices.
Changing this is a challenge for rich and poor countries alike
These institutions must reflect the realities of the time, including
the distribution of power. And they must serve as an arena for states to
co-operate with non-state actors, including global companies. In many cases
they need to be complemented by less formal policy networks, which can
respond more quickly to the changing global agenda.
The gross disparities of wealth in today’s world, the miserable conditions
in which well over a billion people live, the prevalence of endemic conflict
in some regions, and the rapid degradation of the natural environment:
all these combine to make the present model of development unsustainable,
unless remedial measures are taken by common agreement.
http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/summ.htm
Globalization:
The real issues of our times ( again ) is not being talked about or
does the political process clarify the choices about the future. We desperately
need to better understand who we are and where we are going.
The mundane
and almost evil issues of greed, benefits, character narrowly defined,
are out of any context as to the purposes, goals, missions, or tasks of
a modern civilized society and changing national global realities.
Technological waves for the next 20 years
There are four steps to modern progressive global societies.
Self-government - Personal responsibilities and initiative - the idea
of self government both as a personal and political system and with economic
open markets. Competition produces both prosperity and inequality, the
rich get richer but the poor need not get poorer if the second condition
is enlivened - limits on personal or family greed - electoral reform is
a minor reflection of a much greater issue of freedom, democracy when power
and money is widely unequal.
Responsibility, because of inequality and the danger of corruption by
concentrations of power of money and military, there is a clear need for
social dependability of individual and corporations who have developed
civic duties and responsibilities beyond themselves - including supporting
the rule of law and public goods purchased through government to create
and maintain a civilized public culture.
The moral or family issues is
a thin reflection of the great issues of duty and responsibility. Social
consciousness comes from the third condition -
Trust - building confidence over time and space between groups, races,
societies, companies requires an open and honest methods of resolving disputes.
Trust is required to do business beyond a few friends and family and does
not come easily.
The religion, race and class divides are a weak reflection
of the great issues of faith and trust in neighborhoods, communities, cities,
states, nations, and beyond our borders.
The third condition sums it all
up -
Humanism - Ecology - Environment - Expanding intellectual, spiritual,
and technical capacities of the individuals in a global society including
developing institution as linkages between peoples, companies, non-profits,
foundations ( NGO s ) governments, associations, panels, conferences, professional
groups, media companies, educational institutions, the United Nations,
IMF, World Bank, Churches, women’s groups, environmental groups, and the
other of thousands of connections. GreenPeace, Doctors without Borders,
need to be matched by alliances concerned about the great majority of people
who suffer, mainly women and children.
A Global Agenda:
Expand the institutions of democracy - on a local basis by public finance
and regulation of elections, and global support for the civic culture -
the media, education, small business, internet access, rather than military
intervention which should only be the last resort.
Expand international law on corruption, massive civic crime, human rights
abuse, and on a local basis getting over the learning gap - black 17 year
olds performing as white 13 year olds - by what even means necessary -
smaller, better, more competitive schools.
Restoring Faith in institutions, public and private by serious reforms
-
The model is integration of labor, management, and the public as official
members of community.
The various European models of joint committees and
structures should be useful. This is what was called industrial democracy.
Re thinking welfare and social programs with a focus on women and children
using new public private non-profit models.
Breakdown anywhere causes problems everywhere ? Progress, reason, wealth
and investment anywhere impacts everywhere ! We need islands of hope in
a sea of troubles. One hope is the Russians are smart and many technically
trained.
There is a global shortage of technical people so there should
be something there.
The issue is not the personal fault of the people or bad habits from
socialism - but the old system is not gone but dysfunctional and has not
been replaced by a new functional one.
The pure Western Models never fitted
Russia - either Marxism or capitalist - as so many writers of the late
19th Century ( Leo Tolstoy et al ) described so beautifully.
The Russia
spirit requires collective visions, the soul needs great causes, they are
not a island of traders and merchants as France thought of England - but
dreamers and poets, saints and thieves. .
The liberation of Russia has always come from the soil, the language,
and the Orthodox Church - peasants and their MIRs.
The collective village
needs to move into the industrial age.
The fact there was no revolution,
no taking down, cleaning out, removal of the old and no image in the construction
of the new but the old system just collapsed like the Roman Empire from
it's own weight left nothing in place that works very well. Before you
destroy a system you should have a new one in mind but that's not what
happened.
I think a romantic, spiritual and mystic movement will sweep over the
country - prophets and wizards - witches and goblins are on the lose, Leo
in his while robes among the people, if not a Rasputin with a new image
of "mother Russia" that will mobilize energy and pride. We can hope it
is not too undemocratic and authoritarian but will be both because it will
be Russian not American or Western European, or Chinese - and we can hope
it will make things go better for all of us - This is the mother of all
social disasters or the passage for a great people to find their proper
place and role in the world. We need to pay attention and not be stupid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_901000/901963.stm
Pot-holed roads - or roads that end nowhere - twisted streetlamps, dilapidated
trams, wooden shacks on the outside of towns... It's all testament to a
country whose physical fabric is falling apart.
"
There has been very little capital investment in Russia for a decade.
The money received by Russia from abroad has been largely siphoned off
( stolen ) into the shadow economy, while low tax collection rates in Russia
mean few resources can be raised internally for investment.
Education and healthcare have suffered severe hardships. "
Experience suggests that social unrest - gangs - drugs crime war lords
- sort of a Somalia - West Africa - Congo - with Atomic bombs - jets -
tanks -
Since there is no way of fixing "the problem" at a global scale - simple,
small, practical islands of rational development need to develop in St.
Petersburg - out East ( Far East ) by free trade zones - development districts
outside the hopeless legal and administrative tangles.
More power in a Palm Pilot than on the Apollo 10:
The accelerating rate of change forecast more change in the next century
than in the last 10,000 years.
The increases in the rate of change between
paradigms began at about 5000 years as ideas spread slowly - domestic animals,
agriculture, metallurgy, then cities, bureaucracy and empires - then 500
years - printing, navigation, mathematics, deep mining up to the 18th century.
Then 100 years with potatoes, steam and steel, electric and chemical, communications
and computers. Now in 25 years ideas are activated that used to take a
century, then 12.5 years will have a century of 20th century progress,
then 6.25 years what used to take a century and so forth.
The acceleration
of the rate of change has been going on for a long time - it just gets
faster and faster.
Therefore if Nano computer would have taken 50 years in the past it
can be done in 12.5 years.
The speed of application of stem cells to build
body parts, cloned cells used as normal therapies, use of immunization
in treatments of ongoing virus infections and cancers, genetic engineered
plants and animals as a normal accepted process, all being implemented
at great speed. Even in a slow bulky industries such as cars - the fuel
cell will move along more quickly than such technologies would have in
the past. This really effects markets, marketing, and business planning
in very fundamental ways.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/business/index.shtml
go to weekly then global business at the bottom of page
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computer Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Paperback - January 2000)
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Hardcover - January 1999)
Darwin Among the Machines :
The Evolution of Global Intelligence (Helix
Books) by George B. Dyson (Paperback - October 1998)
http://www8.bcity.com/book_bargains/spiritual_machines.htm
There are only three or four issues that have dominated Western then
Global Politics for the last few centuries.
The desire for liberty ( freedom
from excessive state control ) led to the need for self government. Since
we don’t want kings, priest and tribal chiefs to tell us what to do and
how to think and behave we have to do more thinking on our own and make
more complex value judgments. This is the first modern political issue
- now taking the form of the corruption by money of politics, the talk
about big corporations, media and money having excessive control over our
lives.
The second issue is due to the fact that God so loved the poor he made
a lot of them. Equity is an ancient issue that arose in the first popular
government in Greece and repeats itself in many forms.
The poor majorities
under the leadership of a demigod or tyrant will pander to the mob to redistribute
the wealth, forgive debts ( or inflate the currency to make debts payable
in cheap money ) and pander to the passions, the desire for bread and circuses,
and foster other popular superstitions. Now this is called class warfare
or the needs of the needy vs. the greed of the greedy. Benefits paid for
by the rich for the benefit of the poor, public welfare bribes are offered
to buy votes.
Therefore, the third issue is how to protect and expand freedom from
the dangers of Democratic systems - positive freedom is the ability to
make WISE choices unlike a passive liberty which is the negative freedom
from coercion and the right to be wrong.
There is no positive freedom in
ignorance, superstition, prejudice, and in short in being stupid.
Therefore
a civic state depends on education and a civic culture. Otherwise it become
popular tyranny either of the right or left. This issue now takes the form
of education and mobility. If we can really teach poor children to gain
skills we can also teach them to behave and act like other middle class
responsible people.
The last issue is the global vs. national views - the role of humanity
and transcendental values over day to day benefits and who gets what, when
and how. Now this issue comes out as having goals greater than ourselves,
the uses of riches, the nature of the environment, social responsibility,
family values, and the proper respect for the opinions of mankind and the
moral standards of a community of nations.
Real Reform.com
American Association for Constitutional Reform
The issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where
I can find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century
electoral structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the
money required to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to
change the structure of the elections - a change from independent single
member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution
) to a system with clear party responsibility.
The parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and
responsibilities OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican
or Democrat has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should
be some implied contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party
at all.
The national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The congress has become 535 independent small business people without
much discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because
the talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark )
so there is some connection between executive and congressional authority
is one suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate
federal elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs
to be replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational
process of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not
a scramble of state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court
decisions along with the changing results of infighting within fractional
political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law
should not be in doubt - this does now effect the bill of rights - but
only the structure of he process of running elections.
In the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can
be much fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core
of democracy - they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines
the foundations of freedom and representative government.
Federal Elections in the Constitution:
In order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom of political speech, competition, and the free expression of
the will of the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate
has a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not
withstanding any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past
circumstances.
( replaces: Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment
17 on the Senate, Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president
)
Federal Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative,
or congressional referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections,
as proposals for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws
to be enacted or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an
election on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary
in the middle of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including
the nomination process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries
could be done nationally in early September with a run off in the last
week of September with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October
(Enough is enough ) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited
in their expenditures.
An even longer view:
Subscribe to Synergy net |
|
| synergynet archive | Hosted by eGroups.com |
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Message board and Live voice chat at
http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/mbs.cgi/mb843898
and
http://www.coolboard.com/boardshow.cfm/mb=632494864835909
and
http://live.av.com/scripts/community.dll?ep=16&groupid=2117&ck=
Search
this site
powered by FreeFind
GO
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Multicrawl
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
Web
Hosting
>
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
ppppflaump@cfl.rr.com - http://www.wiredbrain.net/
post.htm
on the VAT ( Value added tax ) or national sales tax
initiative.htm
ELECTION 2000
issues.htm
symbian.htm
http://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/ssact/title04/0423.htm
Basic Education as a federal responsibility:
The national interest and general welfare require a large federal role in public compulsory education. This was not as true in the last centuries but is clearly one of the most important if not the most important federal function. "A 2000 PricewaterhouseCoopers report found that intellectual assets now account for 78 percent of the total value of American S&P 500 companies."
"According to a 2000 OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] report, since 1985, the expansion of knowledge-based industries has outpaced gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the developed countries. Knowledge-based industries now account for more than half of OECD-wide GDP." Welcome, to the Knowledge Age.BUT since we are a federal system and have a long history of local school boards we can not just start from scratch.Each state with consultations with local school system should come up with a plan to provide basic education - reading ( the nation reads ) writing ( the nation writes ) algebra and other math ( the nation reasons and calculates ) students knows geography, history, government, humanities, the sciences and the scientific methods - all standards and evaluations set by the states.
Then there is a calculation of what the direct provision of these educational services cost.
Then the application for expected expenditures for the next quarter of 75 % of the costs as a entitlement - with adjustments for over and under payments from the last payment.
The states should report how much would be used for property tax relief - how much for salaries ( and if there would be a state wide pay scales with steps - grades like the GS system ).
These costs should not include support, administration, transportation, athletics, construction, maintenance, bureaucracy, etc. Because these costs remain state and local responsibility and are too much a can of worms.
The national estimated cost per student for instruction could be fairly clear at about $ 2,500 for elementary and $ 4,500 for secondary ( half the total cost ) x 50 million students ( 1 million x $ 1000 = 1 billion ) so 50 million x $ 3,500 = $ 175 Billion x 75 % = $ 132 billion. Using language similar to that for social services in the SS Act.. From the sums appropriated ( or by entitlement as it used to be ) and the allotment under this subpart, subject to the conditions set forth in this section, the Secretary ( DOE ) shall from time to time pay to each State that has a plan developed in accordance with regulations an amount equal to 75 per centime of the total sum expended under the plan in meeting the costs of State, district, county, or other local basic educational instructional services.
The federal government will pay 75 % of teachers salaries and benefits ( involved in direct instruction = about 2.5 million teachers @ $ 30,000 = 75 billion ) and left to the states and local school boards, all the other costs - administration, football, transportation, construction, utilities, then: We could become a modern civilized society with a world class school system, social justice, economic growth, and political democracy.
There could be substantial tax relief on property taxes - standards set for teacher certification - much better salaries for some low paid teachers and salary grades for high performing teachers tied to the GS federal scales:http://www.seemyad.com/gov/salary.htm
The big problems in American Public education are:
There is no career stream for classroom teachers - pay is only based on seniority and there is not much difference if you stay in instruction from start to finish.
There has been a vast growth in administrative overhead from 15 % in the 1960's to 50 % today so increases in resources are absorbed by overhead. In the last decade there has been a vast underhanded growth in ESE ( special education ) from 5 % of population to 25 % and a jungle of paperwork without functional outcomes.
The labeling of students make standards even harder - ESE students are not counted or counted differently - so if someone doesn't learn they are learning disabled and labeled - given more resources - and excluded from the testing of school outcomes.
There has been for decades weak support for standards - support in general but backing off when the tire hits the road and students actually FLUNK and are
We have to adjust to the new political realities - mass marketing of characters as products.Electoral choice is a weak choice for most people. People care more about household products such as toothpaste or breakfast cereal than their congress person.
There are a minority who project on politics their passions and loves and hates that have little political meaning - Some have been harmed by change - industrial or cultural - some have guilt, shame or projections - anti-foreign, protection, abortion, anti-establishment conspiracies - the Clinton's case ( reverse of the Nixon Case )
The base of politics today is emotion and sediment ( largely negative ) - as you see every day in the media - commercials are founded on the "hook" or how to tie the image of a product to a passion - sex, greed, shame, hope, hype - and the billions spent on commercials must work. Cars are creating status and exciting for drivers, products make you happy, sexy and smart, "you get inside it - and it gets inside you".
So we have maybe 10 % interested in issues - real choices based on interests - 20 % concerned with psycho-dynamics ( how does it feel ? What do I like or hate - true believer who projects their passions on the open screen ) - 30 % on transit and superficial reasons - talk shows, appearances and "character". makes 60 % who even pay attention and the rest don't care and don't vote at all.
If there was a depression or war or real civil unrest ( such as in the civil rights, Vietnam case ) maybe people would care and pay attention. We do not have ideological politics or do people carry little consistent theories in their heads - they have optioning that are generated by the moment and a moment latter could be different. That's the way it is - so why blame political campaigns for doing what they have to do to win ?
Our constitution was set up with the idea that Republican government depends on rational elites - better educated, better motivated, with an sense of civic virtue, civilly minded, public-spirited, community-minded - and a model of opinion where the leaders ideas are passed down. Real issues for real people can not be left to mass politics.
The problems such as Social Security is too complex - of course "they" just want more for less or nothing -
The real problem is the decline in the elite caused by economic change and the rise of the sunbelt and Wild West.
There is a weak media elite, weak academic leadership, weak economic leadership ( lost in a tangle of special interest )
The reason congress spends more time in ideological showmanship because the establishment is so fractured. In the old days there would be power brokers to make them behave. ( Bankers, editors, older politicians, party leaders - could control wild rhetoric and excessive patrician passions ) Both Clinton and Newt are outsiders without proper credentials and behavior did not conform to expected standards.
We have to adjust to the new realities - mass marketing of " characters " as products. It ends up as their ad agencies vs. our ad agencies, their commercials vs. our commercials - the selling of the presidency. Not beautiful, not wise, not true - but that's the way it is and why money matters- better ads and better coverage -
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/09/imf-europe A huge U.S. trade deficit could turn into a serious problem for the American economy if foreigners were to decide suddenly to dump dollar-denominated assets, which could push the U.S. currency down sharply and trigger steep declines in U.S. stock and bond markets http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/08/news-world-economy Referring to the various threats, the IMF said, "
The possibility that these imbalances may unwind in a disorderly fashion remains a risk to the global expansion." As for oil, the IMF said oil prices are about 20 percent higher than the IMF had assumed in its economic forecast, an increase of $5 a barrel. It estimated this should add $40 billion over a year's time to the oil import bills of industrial countries and cut their economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.
salestax.htm
The question of the commons in the sky:Airports would agree to a pattern or take off and landing which then would be sold to airlines - airspace would fit the capacity of getting in and out - and airline schedules would be limited to what the airports can handle. Ticket prices would reflect the supply and demand of time and location specific travel. Travelers would pay more for high demand times and locations. People going for pleasure could select a secondary airport and odd times, business would pay a premium for best sites at the best times.
The theme of public policy for the next generation is how services are delivered. Various patterns of public, private for and not for profit organization will bring competition, modern management practice and benefit / cost analysis into common services.
The air transport situation is a classic case of mixed up systems where the mixture has not worked. Deregulation of the airline carriers, city-state private airports, public air traffic controllers, regulation of the safety of air traffic and aircraft by the FAA and the various unions and interest groups all going after their own interest and can easily screw up the whole system.
The system analysis of the whole system seems to be weak.
They all depend on each other but seem to rather fight and blame each other then give up their any of special interests. Airports try to move more "tin" than they can handle because airlines want to schedule more flights to be competitive and not let others move it. Airlines are supported by public airports, weather, traffic controllers and taxpayers pay a lot of the construction cash as are road and barge transport. Airplanes benefit from defense contracts and research.
The idea is to change air traffic control into a non-profit modern organization such as been happening in Canada and Europe. A semi-private corporation could move faster on new technology.
Then airports should be able to compete for services and finance expansions and ground transport.
The national regulation of safety should be set by global systems analysis of capacity and safety issues. Each part of the system needs to fit together and adjust for bad weather and heavy load factors. We need a system designed for a billion passengers per year, then two billion or what ever we can manage.
Time to come clean, time to win:Remember Ross Parot and those charts on the federal deficits, an issue that both parties want to avoid. It was called the 600 pound guerilla no one want to notice. Now the issue is Social Security and Medicare is an 800 blue monkey no one want to handle except in unreal ways by pretending it will go away. Those now retiring were born 65 years ago in 1935 with aa birth cohort of a litle over two million. Many were not covered - farm and domestic labor - and come under SSI, and other Aid to the Elderly - about 500,000 claim Medicare and Social Security next year. In 1950 four million babies who live longer, augmented by immigration will make 2 million or more claims in 2015. ( In very round numbers ) We have a 10 trillion economy and 20 % in federal programs. In a little over a generation we can double the economy to 20 - 25 trillion, 20 % is 4 trillion budget.
The cost of Medicare in the 1960’s was 1/10 of what is now per person, 4 % of GDP in Health to about 11 % and going to 20 % without market pressures. If no real change is made in benefits ( likely to increase such as drugs ) and cost increase only slightly more than inflation, retirement benefits will absorb 75 % of a four trillion federal budget - equal to about 3.0 trillion, ( 10 % of a 25 trillion GDP ) and about 20 % of all personal income will be going to support the program for the retired one way or another. This means all other federal programs have the same dollar amount they now have - a real cut of more than 50 % - for parks, defense, agriculture, education, transportation, et al. Not realistic -
There is only one way out - let’s face it !A plan to subsidize savings so that in twenty years 65 % of all families have a private retirement plan with benefits equal to 80 % of their income is the only way out. Private insurance and free markets ( subsidized for the poor ) such as the Federal Employees ( supported by Bradley ) have is the only way that makes sense. Benefits must be means tested and run privately but subsidized for those in need.
The vast increase in private saving and investment would mean we can double the economy in a generation and afford to pay the bills while not ruining the economy. If Bush dropped his tax plan and took on Gore on the realities of Social Security / Medicare Gore would fumble and look dishonest - because he know the truth but is afraid of the truth as he did on meet the press. It could stash victory from the jaws of defeat.
The only way to get such a privatization plan is to triangulate democrats ( many support such a realistic idea ) and win the middle. On education Bush is more realistic and supports competition, these two great issues with a pay down of the debt ( small targeted tax cuts ) can still win. Bush would really have to bone up on a complex issue - have charts- and sell the program. http://www.aamc.org/advocacy/issues/commssns/nbcfm.htm
The plan, offered by Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) and Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) received 10 of the super-majority 11 votes (out of 17) needed for the commission to make recommendations to President Clinton and the Congress.
The commission has since disbanded without a report issued to the Congress and President Clinton. However, both Sen. Breaux and Rep. Thomas have indicated that they intend to use the commission document as a basis for introducing Medicare reform legislation. Under a premium-based support model, private plans would submit their plan and premiums for approval to a Medicare Board in order to compete with one another and with traditional Medicare fee-for-service.
The Breaux/ Thomas plan specifically states that submitted premiums from the government-run FFS or private plans would not include calculations of "all non-insurance functions and special payments now in Medicare." Medicare spending is projected to reach 4.4 % to 8 % percent of GDP by 2030. This means nearly quardupling the resources our nation would have to commit to cont
http://www.kaiserpermanente.org/ give a lot more for a lot less by having the doctors own the hospital, charge a flat per capita fee, and control cost.
They made more by doing less rather than the other way around. What is now called HMO is not HMO but an insurance scheme to give incentives to control costs.
Then they are under-funded a wild attempt to balance the budget and then attacked in not giving everyone everything they think they should have. A few billion dollars could make Kaiser Permanente national. We now have the worse of both worlds - a great compromise like in 1835 about Slavery - In 1935 when Social Security started, people lived to an average of 65, doctors could not do much against infection, flu, pneumonia, tuberculosis, etc. In 1965 when Medicare started it was different ( Miracle drugs ) and we were at the beginning of a technological revolution, Now they can keep anyone alive until the money runs out. When will we get real ? A simple system of supports for private insurance or HMO including publicly run or non-profit hospitals with everyone on salary - ( no incentives to do more than necessary
) To get more than the basics you pay more than the basic - if you don't have the money then you get what you are given and say "thank you".From the Concord coalition: Medicare faces a two-fold dilemma.
The program, as currently structured, is financially unsustainable. Medicare costs are projected to grow faster than the payroll taxes and premiums that are dedicated to support the program. Costs are also projected to grow faster than the overall economy, and faster than can be reasonably supported by the federal budget unless spending priorities change.At the same time, compared to the health insurance coverage available to most working age Americans, Medicare offers a Spartan, out-of-date insurance package that many argue is too stingy. Others contend Medicare is too generous compared to the protections generally available to younger people. Even though the program faces financial insolvency in the future, today there is pressure to add new benefits, such as coverage for people younger than 65, prescription drugs, treatment of mental illness, protection against catastrophic expenses, and long-term care for chronically ill people.In addition, traditional Medicare makes no attempt to coordinate or manage care; it reimburses the costs of any medical treatment that beneficiaries receive, regardless of whether the treatments are cost-effective or medically effective.
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
Normal Healthy Reactions and negations: A new Third or Fourth Way
What a dull world it would be if we all agreed, if we were all alike
and what a uncreative and unproductive our society would be if there was
only one right way of thinking and doing. In the celebration of diversity
we should acknowledge the creative force of discussion, disagreement, and
conflict.
When dealing with conflict, different values, different life experience,
different cultures, different interests, different styles the first step
is to acknowledge the legitimacy of differences and a desire to look for
common humanity and common ground.
The theory of conflict resolution or
peace theories is a process of building confidence, listening and repeating
the concerns of the other side - " I hear what you saying, I understand
what you care about, want, need, and desire - I recognize your rights and
desires. " Now these are mine - where do we have room to come together
?
For example, Jerusalem - the Palestinians need some sovereignty over
East Jerusalem, and some rights over the holy places.
The Israelis need
the same thing. If both sides make dogmatic claims and say they can’t compromise
it seems an serious dilemma and could cause possible violence.
By raising the issue to a higher level joint solutions can be found
- different definitions of sovereignty, and creative common institutions
progress can be make. If both sides understand they have to live together
and give the others enough so they can have reconciliation then they can
create cross cultural institutions, linkages, contacts etc. Such a process
has worked in Northern Ireland, in the American South, South Africa, Central
America, so that the populations know and trust each other so they can
live and work together.
The dumb politics is to augment differences, to always attack any proposals
made by the opposition and exaggerated the problem. How about a new politics
- a third or fourth way - where one side responds positively to the suggestions
of the other side. " Well, that is an interesting idea - maybe we can work
something out " approach. In issues as complex as Social Security and Medicare
serious negations and compromise are required and should be recognized
rather than misleading numbers, programs and slogans by both sides.
We had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong,
Do voters and believers have defects because they refuse to believe
and act as they should ? Or do organizations have a hubris of great claims
on people’s loyalty, credibility, or subservience.
Is public policy theology ? Is theology dogma ? If it is an article
of faith that tax cuts are good even if it creates deficits, slows growth,
destroys wealth and progress ( GOP ) then that limits options;
OR you should tax the rich to benefit the poor ( fight for you against
them ) therefore discourage enterprise, wealth creation, and the ability
to fund public programs.
Instead of study and analysis of the real world - others experience,
expert studies;
But instead we had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong
:
The bluntly worded declaration by the Vatican office that oversees Catholic
doctrine said that followers of non-Christian faiths have "gravely deficient"
chances for salvation and that other Christian churches have "defects,"
partly because they do not recognize the authority of the pope.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/updates/lat_vatican000906.htm
http://msnbc.com/news/455300.asp#BODY
There is growing concern that the Bush Campaign is in deep do-do.
There
is movement to replace critical people and strategy. ." And given the gravity
of the situation and the relatively short amount of time until November,
Bush needs to get on the offensive soon. Updated governor vulnerability
ratings.
http://www.voter.com/home/news/0,3402,2--,00.html
Do we hate ideology ?
The best description of American Democracy is that done a more than
a century and half ago by Alexis de Tocqueville. American are described
as being practical, materialist, pragmatic, with a passion for slogans
and the hoopla of political activity.
The inevitable democratic trend was
due to the growth of the propertied middle classes, ( economic determinism
) new technology in communications, transportation and education ( technological
determinism ), and maybe most important the Protestant Christian theology
of the individual ( historical and psychological determinism ).
The people want to believe that they think for themselves as individuals
but are very easily influenced by their social group and the desire to
fit in and be popular. Tocqueville felt there was a dumping down in democracy
and a decline in real individualism and intellectual independence. Civic
virtue, the organized national goals, greater idealist passions, the need
for a collective organic society is wrapped in generalizations and slogans
of a obsessive, bias, and blind local and national patriotism. American
were described as people in gray suits, social conformist who feared being
different from the pack.
Since the New Deal, Old Democrats taxed Republicans to provide benefits
to democrats thereby buy their votes.
Their ideology was a form of social
democracy promoting equality and social justice. Old Republican were social,
economic and political conservatives that resisted big government and believed
in the ideology of personal liberty.
The American economy produced a much bigger middle class. Now the democrats
began to tax democrats to benefit other democrats. Republicans began to
get working class and southern votes based on tax, welfare, defense and
social - racial issues. New Democrats reacted to the charge they were the
"tax and spend" party, soft on crime, soft on communist and defense, soft
on welfare and morals, and the new Leadership became centralist as fiscal
conservatives with support for the war industries, the war on drugs, tough
on crime, the death penalty, welfare reform, balanced budgets, and other
republican issues.
The Old "new democrats" want to tax republicans to benefit
their constitutions to reinforce their base to gain some of the populist
appeal to those who feel they have not gotten enough from the growing economy.
New Republicans are integrationist, argue for social justice through
educational opportunity, support basic social security and Medicare, and
their higher purposes are to be inclusive, practical, compromise, and non-ideological
in reaction to the charge that they were mean, selfish, racist, sexist,
ideological anti-government extremist and religious fundamentalist.
The cycle has been first the New Deal - tax the republicans to benefit
the working class urban democrats. This kept the party in power for more
than half a century. Social security, Medicare are the democratic poster
child.
Then the " Southern Strategy" with Nixon and Reagan broke the Democratic
monopoly with social, racial, ideological, anti-Communist, right to life
combination. Reagan and Gingrish used the slogans of freedom, individual
liberty, the dangers of big government, to package a right wing ideological
movement with gun control the poster child of individualism.
The support
for anti-government slogans declined with prosperity and a centralist Clinton
administration.
Now Gore needed to mobilize the old democrats, tax the rich to benefit
the working class, us vs. them - plus the pragmatic moderate fiscal policy
that help produce prosperity. He does not intend to spend a lot of money.
Bush is a southern strategy person who needs to attract more moderate working
class and suburban voters.
The message of moderate republican governors
about coalition building and practical policy doesn’t seem to be getting
through.
Politesse: Idiots ?
Why when an issue become political does it become so stupid ? It doesn’t
in Europe ( as much ) as it does here. As in war the first casualty is
reason and truth.
The drug war - has not reduced drugs or even raised prices - but since
it doesn’t work do more of the same and get into a civil war in Columbia
?
The only effect can be to move production and distribution. Put a million
citizens into jail while treatment programs are under funded and full -
be sure to target young black males so they will have no useful future
in society.
The issue of Cuba and Castro - since sanctions don’t work keep them
for ever ? Because of the Cuban Vote in Florida and New Jersey let the
extreme control national policy ? Make no move to promote civil society
and racial justice and democracy but support white anti-democratic refugee
groups.
School reform - since little or no progress has been made in the inequality
or the quality of education since 1964 and Title I and other reform programs
- keep doing the same - and follow the advice of teachers unions, school
boards, and false Schools of Education ( an oxymoron ) experts who have
shown they can not improve schools ?
Since we can’t agree on abortion lets keep fighting and insulting each
other ?
The constitution calls for impeachment of elected officials for high
crimes as a rare or last resort so let’s have a huge case conducted by
lawyers on the judiciary committee from the house - when they should know
no crime was committed ( a crime is an act that can be prosecuted under
law - not just allegations and calling people names like cheater or liar
) and no prosecution is possible in this case ?
Since there will be a great deal fewer payers and a lot more receivers
of social security and Medicare let’s not discuss raising taxes or reducing
benefits and/or making them means tested - let’s pretend that we have a
quick cheap fix, no pain and all gain ?
Should add missile defense, the surplus - the social security "trust"
fund, ( when you are in debt there is no surplus )
The trillion of dollars
the government owes itself does not pay itself interest - the account is
not in surplus unless you count unpaid accounts -
Assembly, have provided a unique opportunity for us all to reflect on
our common destiny, by convening what will surely be the largest gathering
of political leaders the world has ever seen.
V. Sustaining our future
Technological waves for the next 20 years
We now face an urgent need to secure the freedom of future generations
to sustain their lives on this planet – and we are failing to do it. We
have been plundering our children’s heritage to pay for unsustainable practices.
Changing this is a challenge for rich and poor countries alike
These institutions must reflect the realities of the time, including
the distribution of power. And they must serve as an arena for states to
co-operate with non-state actors, including global companies. In many cases
they need to be complemented by less formal policy networks, which can
respond more quickly to the changing global agenda.
The gross disparities of wealth in today’s world, the miserable conditions
in which well over a billion people live, the prevalence of endemic conflict
in some regions, and the rapid degradation of the natural environment:
all these combine to make the present model of development unsustainable,
unless remedial measures are taken by common agreement.
http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/summ.htm
Globalization:
The real issues of our times ( again ) is not being talked about or
does the political process clarify the choices about the future. We desperately
need to better understand who we are and where we are going.
The mundane
and almost evil issues of greed, benefits, character narrowly defined,
are out of any context as to the purposes, goals, missions, or tasks of
a modern civilized society and changing national global realities.
Technological waves for the next 20 years
There are four steps to modern progressive global societies.
Self-government - Personal responsibilities and initiative - the idea
of self government both as a personal and political system and with economic
open markets. Competition produces both prosperity and inequality, the
rich get richer but the poor need not get poorer if the second condition
is enlivened - limits on personal or family greed - electoral reform is
a minor reflection of a much greater issue of freedom, democracy when power
and money is widely unequal.
Responsibility, because of inequality and the danger of corruption by
concentrations of power of money and military, there is a clear need for
social dependability of individual and corporations who have developed
civic duties and responsibilities beyond themselves - including supporting
the rule of law and public goods purchased through government to create
and maintain a civilized public culture.
The moral or family issues is
a thin reflection of the great issues of duty and responsibility. Social
consciousness comes from the third condition -
Trust - building confidence over time and space between groups, races,
societies, companies requires an open and honest methods of resolving disputes.
Trust is required to do business beyond a few friends and family and does
not come easily.
The religion, race and class divides are a weak reflection
of the great issues of faith and trust in neighborhoods, communities, cities,
states, nations, and beyond our borders.
The third condition sums it all
up -
Humanism - Ecology - Environment - Expanding intellectual, spiritual,
and technical capacities of the individuals in a global society including
developing institution as linkages between peoples, companies, non-profits,
foundations ( NGO s ) governments, associations, panels, conferences, professional
groups, media companies, educational institutions, the United Nations,
IMF, World Bank, Churches, women’s groups, environmental groups, and the
other of thousands of connections. GreenPeace, Doctors without Borders,
need to be matched by alliances concerned about the great majority of people
who suffer, mainly women and children.
A Global Agenda:
Expand the institutions of democracy - on a local basis by public finance
and regulation of elections, and global support for the civic culture -
the media, education, small business, internet access, rather than military
intervention which should only be the last resort.
Expand international law on corruption, massive civic crime, human rights
abuse, and on a local basis getting over the learning gap - black 17 year
olds performing as white 13 year olds - by what even means necessary -
smaller, better, more competitive schools.
Restoring Faith in institutions, public and private by serious reforms
-
The model is integration of labor, management, and the public as official
members of community.
The various European models of joint committees and
structures should be useful. This is what was called industrial democracy.
Re thinking welfare and social programs with a focus on women and children
using new public private non-profit models.
Breakdown anywhere causes problems everywhere ? Progress, reason, wealth
and investment anywhere impacts everywhere ! We need islands of hope in
a sea of troubles. One hope is the Russians are smart and many technically
trained.
There is a global shortage of technical people so there should
be something there.
The issue is not the personal fault of the people or bad habits from
socialism - but the old system is not gone but dysfunctional and has not
been replaced by a new functional one.
The pure Western Models never fitted
Russia - either Marxism or capitalist - as so many writers of the late
19th Century ( Leo Tolstoy et al ) described so beautifully.
The Russia
spirit requires collective visions, the soul needs great causes, they are
not a island of traders and merchants as France thought of England - but
dreamers and poets, saints and thieves. .
The liberation of Russia has always come from the soil, the language,
and the Orthodox Church - peasants and their MIRs.
The collective village
needs to move into the industrial age.
The fact there was no revolution,
no taking down, cleaning out, removal of the old and no image in the construction
of the new but the old system just collapsed like the Roman Empire from
it's own weight left nothing in place that works very well. Before you
destroy a system you should have a new one in mind but that's not what
happened.
I think a romantic, spiritual and mystic movement will sweep over the
country - prophets and wizards - witches and goblins are on the lose, Leo
in his while robes among the people, if not a Rasputin with a new image
of "mother Russia" that will mobilize energy and pride. We can hope it
is not too undemocratic and authoritarian but will be both because it will
be Russian not American or Western European, or Chinese - and we can hope
it will make things go better for all of us - This is the mother of all
social disasters or the passage for a great people to find their proper
place and role in the world. We need to pay attention and not be stupid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_901000/901963.stm
Pot-holed roads - or roads that end nowhere - twisted streetlamps, dilapidated
trams, wooden shacks on the outside of towns... It's all testament to a
country whose physical fabric is falling apart.
"
There has been very little capital investment in Russia for a decade.
The money received by Russia from abroad has been largely siphoned off
( stolen ) into the shadow economy, while low tax collection rates in Russia
mean few resources can be raised internally for investment.
Education and healthcare have suffered severe hardships. "
Experience suggests that social unrest - gangs - drugs crime war lords
- sort of a Somalia - West Africa - Congo - with Atomic bombs - jets -
tanks -
Since there is no way of fixing "the problem" at a global scale - simple,
small, practical islands of rational development need to develop in St.
Petersburg - out East ( Far East ) by free trade zones - development districts
outside the hopeless legal and administrative tangles.
More power in a Palm Pilot than on the Apollo 10:
The accelerating rate of change forecast more change in the next century
than in the last 10,000 years.
The increases in the rate of change between
paradigms began at about 5000 years as ideas spread slowly - domestic animals,
agriculture, metallurgy, then cities, bureaucracy and empires - then 500
years - printing, navigation, mathematics, deep mining up to the 18th century.
Then 100 years with potatoes, steam and steel, electric and chemical, communications
and computers. Now in 25 years ideas are activated that used to take a
century, then 12.5 years will have a century of 20th century progress,
then 6.25 years what used to take a century and so forth.
The acceleration
of the rate of change has been going on for a long time - it just gets
faster and faster.
Therefore if Nano computer would have taken 50 years in the past it
can be done in 12.5 years.
The speed of application of stem cells to build
body parts, cloned cells used as normal therapies, use of immunization
in treatments of ongoing virus infections and cancers, genetic engineered
plants and animals as a normal accepted process, all being implemented
at great speed. Even in a slow bulky industries such as cars - the fuel
cell will move along more quickly than such technologies would have in
the past. This really effects markets, marketing, and business planning
in very fundamental ways.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/business/index.shtml
go to weekly then global business at the bottom of page
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computer Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Paperback - January 2000)
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Hardcover - January 1999)
Darwin Among the Machines :
The Evolution of Global Intelligence (Helix
Books) by George B. Dyson (Paperback - October 1998)
http://www8.bcity.com/book_bargains/spiritual_machines.htm
There are only three or four issues that have dominated Western then
Global Politics for the last few centuries.
The desire for liberty ( freedom
from excessive state control ) led to the need for self government. Since
we don’t want kings, priest and tribal chiefs to tell us what to do and
how to think and behave we have to do more thinking on our own and make
more complex value judgments. This is the first modern political issue
- now taking the form of the corruption by money of politics, the talk
about big corporations, media and money having excessive control over our
lives.
The second issue is due to the fact that God so loved the poor he made
a lot of them. Equity is an ancient issue that arose in the first popular
government in Greece and repeats itself in many forms.
The poor majorities
under the leadership of a demigod or tyrant will pander to the mob to redistribute
the wealth, forgive debts ( or inflate the currency to make debts payable
in cheap money ) and pander to the passions, the desire for bread and circuses,
and foster other popular superstitions. Now this is called class warfare
or the needs of the needy vs. the greed of the greedy. Benefits paid for
by the rich for the benefit of the poor, public welfare bribes are offered
to buy votes.
Therefore, the third issue is how to protect and expand freedom from
the dangers of Democratic systems - positive freedom is the ability to
make WISE choices unlike a passive liberty which is the negative freedom
from coercion and the right to be wrong.
There is no positive freedom in
ignorance, superstition, prejudice, and in short in being stupid.
Therefore
a civic state depends on education and a civic culture. Otherwise it become
popular tyranny either of the right or left. This issue now takes the form
of education and mobility. If we can really teach poor children to gain
skills we can also teach them to behave and act like other middle class
responsible people.
The last issue is the global vs. national views - the role of humanity
and transcendental values over day to day benefits and who gets what, when
and how. Now this issue comes out as having goals greater than ourselves,
the uses of riches, the nature of the environment, social responsibility,
family values, and the proper respect for the opinions of mankind and the
moral standards of a community of nations.
Real Reform.com
American Association for Constitutional Reform
The issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where
I can find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century
electoral structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the
money required to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to
change the structure of the elections - a change from independent single
member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution
) to a system with clear party responsibility.
The parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and
responsibilities OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican
or Democrat has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should
be some implied contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party
at all.
The national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The congress has become 535 independent small business people without
much discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because
the talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark )
so there is some connection between executive and congressional authority
is one suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate
federal elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs
to be replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational
process of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not
a scramble of state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court
decisions along with the changing results of infighting within fractional
political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law
should not be in doubt - this does now effect the bill of rights - but
only the structure of he process of running elections.
In the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can
be much fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core
of democracy - they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines
the foundations of freedom and representative government.
Federal Elections in the Constitution:
In order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom of political speech, competition, and the free expression of
the will of the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate
has a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not
withstanding any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past
circumstances.
( replaces: Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment
17 on the Senate, Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president
)
Federal Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative,
or congressional referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections,
as proposals for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws
to be enacted or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an
election on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary
in the middle of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including
the nomination process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries
could be done nationally in early September with a run off in the last
week of September with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October
(Enough is enough ) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited
in their expenditures.
An even longer view:
Message board and Live voice chat at
http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/mbs.cgi/mb843898
and
http://www.coolboard.com/boardshow.cfm/mb=632494864835909
and
http://live.av.com/scripts/community.dll?ep=16&groupid=2117&ck=
Search
this site
powered by FreeFind
GO
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Multicrawl
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
Web
Hosting
>
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
ppppflaump@cfl.rr.com - http://www.wiredbrain.net/
post.htm
on the VAT ( Value added tax ) or national sales tax
initiative.htm
ELECTION 2000
issues.htm
symbian.htm
http://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/ssact/title04/0423.htm
Basic Education as a federal responsibility:
The national interest and general welfare require a large federal role in public compulsory education. This was not as true in the last centuries but is clearly one of the most important if not the most important federal function. "A 2000 PricewaterhouseCoopers report found that intellectual assets now account for 78 percent of the total value of American S&P 500 companies."
"According to a 2000 OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] report, since 1985, the expansion of knowledge-based industries has outpaced gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the developed countries. Knowledge-based industries now account for more than half of OECD-wide GDP." Welcome, to the Knowledge Age.BUT since we are a federal system and have a long history of local school boards we can not just start from scratch.Each state with consultations with local school system should come up with a plan to provide basic education - reading ( the nation reads ) writing ( the nation writes ) algebra and other math ( the nation reasons and calculates ) students knows geography, history, government, humanities, the sciences and the scientific methods - all standards and evaluations set by the states.
Then there is a calculation of what the direct provision of these educational services cost.
Then the application for expected expenditures for the next quarter of 75 % of the costs as a entitlement - with adjustments for over and under payments from the last payment.
The states should report how much would be used for property tax relief - how much for salaries ( and if there would be a state wide pay scales with steps - grades like the GS system ).
These costs should not include support, administration, transportation, athletics, construction, maintenance, bureaucracy, etc. Because these costs remain state and local responsibility and are too much a can of worms.
The national estimated cost per student for instruction could be fairly clear at about $ 2,500 for elementary and $ 4,500 for secondary ( half the total cost ) x 50 million students ( 1 million x $ 1000 = 1 billion ) so 50 million x $ 3,500 = $ 175 Billion x 75 % = $ 132 billion. Using language similar to that for social services in the SS Act.. From the sums appropriated ( or by entitlement as it used to be ) and the allotment under this subpart, subject to the conditions set forth in this section, the Secretary ( DOE ) shall from time to time pay to each State that has a plan developed in accordance with regulations an amount equal to 75 per centime of the total sum expended under the plan in meeting the costs of State, district, county, or other local basic educational instructional services.
The federal government will pay 75 % of teachers salaries and benefits ( involved in direct instruction = about 2.5 million teachers @ $ 30,000 = 75 billion ) and left to the states and local school boards, all the other costs - administration, football, transportation, construction, utilities, then: We could become a modern civilized society with a world class school system, social justice, economic growth, and political democracy.
There could be substantial tax relief on property taxes - standards set for teacher certification - much better salaries for some low paid teachers and salary grades for high performing teachers tied to the GS federal scales:http://www.seemyad.com/gov/salary.htm
The big problems in American Public education are:
There is no career stream for classroom teachers - pay is only based on seniority and there is not much difference if you stay in instruction from start to finish.
There has been a vast growth in administrative overhead from 15 % in the 1960's to 50 % today so increases in resources are absorbed by overhead. In the last decade there has been a vast underhanded growth in ESE ( special education ) from 5 % of population to 25 % and a jungle of paperwork without functional outcomes.
The labeling of students make standards even harder - ESE students are not counted or counted differently - so if someone doesn't learn they are learning disabled and labeled - given more resources - and excluded from the testing of school outcomes.
There has been for decades weak support for standards - support in general but backing off when the tire hits the road and students actually FLUNK and are
We have to adjust to the new political realities - mass marketing of characters as products.Electoral choice is a weak choice for most people. People care more about household products such as toothpaste or breakfast cereal than their congress person.
There are a minority who project on politics their passions and loves and hates that have little political meaning - Some have been harmed by change - industrial or cultural - some have guilt, shame or projections - anti-foreign, protection, abortion, anti-establishment conspiracies - the Clinton's case ( reverse of the Nixon Case )
The base of politics today is emotion and sediment ( largely negative ) - as you see every day in the media - commercials are founded on the "hook" or how to tie the image of a product to a passion - sex, greed, shame, hope, hype - and the billions spent on commercials must work. Cars are creating status and exciting for drivers, products make you happy, sexy and smart, "you get inside it - and it gets inside you".
So we have maybe 10 % interested in issues - real choices based on interests - 20 % concerned with psycho-dynamics ( how does it feel ? What do I like or hate - true believer who projects their passions on the open screen ) - 30 % on transit and superficial reasons - talk shows, appearances and "character". makes 60 % who even pay attention and the rest don't care and don't vote at all.
If there was a depression or war or real civil unrest ( such as in the civil rights, Vietnam case ) maybe people would care and pay attention. We do not have ideological politics or do people carry little consistent theories in their heads - they have optioning that are generated by the moment and a moment latter could be different. That's the way it is - so why blame political campaigns for doing what they have to do to win ?
Our constitution was set up with the idea that Republican government depends on rational elites - better educated, better motivated, with an sense of civic virtue, civilly minded, public-spirited, community-minded - and a model of opinion where the leaders ideas are passed down. Real issues for real people can not be left to mass politics.
The problems such as Social Security is too complex - of course "they" just want more for less or nothing -
The real problem is the decline in the elite caused by economic change and the rise of the sunbelt and Wild West.
There is a weak media elite, weak academic leadership, weak economic leadership ( lost in a tangle of special interest )
The reason congress spends more time in ideological showmanship because the establishment is so fractured. In the old days there would be power brokers to make them behave. ( Bankers, editors, older politicians, party leaders - could control wild rhetoric and excessive patrician passions ) Both Clinton and Newt are outsiders without proper credentials and behavior did not conform to expected standards.
We have to adjust to the new realities - mass marketing of " characters " as products. It ends up as their ad agencies vs. our ad agencies, their commercials vs. our commercials - the selling of the presidency. Not beautiful, not wise, not true - but that's the way it is and why money matters- better ads and better coverage -
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/09/imf-europe A huge U.S. trade deficit could turn into a serious problem for the American economy if foreigners were to decide suddenly to dump dollar-denominated assets, which could push the U.S. currency down sharply and trigger steep declines in U.S. stock and bond markets http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/08/news-world-economy Referring to the various threats, the IMF said, "
The possibility that these imbalances may unwind in a disorderly fashion remains a risk to the global expansion." As for oil, the IMF said oil prices are about 20 percent higher than the IMF had assumed in its economic forecast, an increase of $5 a barrel. It estimated this should add $40 billion over a year's time to the oil import bills of industrial countries and cut their economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.
salestax.htm
The question of the commons in the sky:Airports would agree to a pattern or take off and landing which then would be sold to airlines - airspace would fit the capacity of getting in and out - and airline schedules would be limited to what the airports can handle. Ticket prices would reflect the supply and demand of time and location specific travel. Travelers would pay more for high demand times and locations. People going for pleasure could select a secondary airport and odd times, business would pay a premium for best sites at the best times.
The theme of public policy for the next generation is how services are delivered. Various patterns of public, private for and not for profit organization will bring competition, modern management practice and benefit / cost analysis into common services.
The air transport situation is a classic case of mixed up systems where the mixture has not worked. Deregulation of the airline carriers, city-state private airports, public air traffic controllers, regulation of the safety of air traffic and aircraft by the FAA and the various unions and interest groups all going after their own interest and can easily screw up the whole system.
The system analysis of the whole system seems to be weak.
They all depend on each other but seem to rather fight and blame each other then give up their any of special interests. Airports try to move more "tin" than they can handle because airlines want to schedule more flights to be competitive and not let others move it. Airlines are supported by public airports, weather, traffic controllers and taxpayers pay a lot of the construction cash as are road and barge transport. Airplanes benefit from defense contracts and research.
The idea is to change air traffic control into a non-profit modern organization such as been happening in Canada and Europe. A semi-private corporation could move faster on new technology.
Then airports should be able to compete for services and finance expansions and ground transport.
The national regulation of safety should be set by global systems analysis of capacity and safety issues. Each part of the system needs to fit together and adjust for bad weather and heavy load factors. We need a system designed for a billion passengers per year, then two billion or what ever we can manage.
Time to come clean, time to win:Remember Ross Parot and those charts on the federal deficits, an issue that both parties want to avoid. It was called the 600 pound guerilla no one want to notice. Now the issue is Social Security and Medicare is an 800 blue monkey no one want to handle except in unreal ways by pretending it will go away. Those now retiring were born 65 years ago in 1935 with aa birth cohort of a litle over two million. Many were not covered - farm and domestic labor - and come under SSI, and other Aid to the Elderly - about 500,000 claim Medicare and Social Security next year. In 1950 four million babies who live longer, augmented by immigration will make 2 million or more claims in 2015. ( In very round numbers ) We have a 10 trillion economy and 20 % in federal programs. In a little over a generation we can double the economy to 20 - 25 trillion, 20 % is 4 trillion budget.
The cost of Medicare in the 1960’s was 1/10 of what is now per person, 4 % of GDP in Health to about 11 % and going to 20 % without market pressures. If no real change is made in benefits ( likely to increase such as drugs ) and cost increase only slightly more than inflation, retirement benefits will absorb 75 % of a four trillion federal budget - equal to about 3.0 trillion, ( 10 % of a 25 trillion GDP ) and about 20 % of all personal income will be going to support the program for the retired one way or another. This means all other federal programs have the same dollar amount they now have - a real cut of more than 50 % - for parks, defense, agriculture, education, transportation, et al. Not realistic -
There is only one way out - let’s face it !A plan to subsidize savings so that in twenty years 65 % of all families have a private retirement plan with benefits equal to 80 % of their income is the only way out. Private insurance and free markets ( subsidized for the poor ) such as the Federal Employees ( supported by Bradley ) have is the only way that makes sense. Benefits must be means tested and run privately but subsidized for those in need.
The vast increase in private saving and investment would mean we can double the economy in a generation and afford to pay the bills while not ruining the economy. If Bush dropped his tax plan and took on Gore on the realities of Social Security / Medicare Gore would fumble and look dishonest - because he know the truth but is afraid of the truth as he did on meet the press. It could stash victory from the jaws of defeat.
The only way to get such a privatization plan is to triangulate democrats ( many support such a realistic idea ) and win the middle. On education Bush is more realistic and supports competition, these two great issues with a pay down of the debt ( small targeted tax cuts ) can still win. Bush would really have to bone up on a complex issue - have charts- and sell the program. http://www.aamc.org/advocacy/issues/commssns/nbcfm.htm
The plan, offered by Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) and Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) received 10 of the super-majority 11 votes (out of 17) needed for the commission to make recommendations to President Clinton and the Congress.
The commission has since disbanded without a report issued to the Congress and President Clinton. However, both Sen. Breaux and Rep. Thomas have indicated that they intend to use the commission document as a basis for introducing Medicare reform legislation. Under a premium-based support model, private plans would submit their plan and premiums for approval to a Medicare Board in order to compete with one another and with traditional Medicare fee-for-service.
The Breaux/ Thomas plan specifically states that submitted premiums from the government-run FFS or private plans would not include calculations of "all non-insurance functions and special payments now in Medicare." Medicare spending is projected to reach 4.4 % to 8 % percent of GDP by 2030. This means nearly quardupling the resources our nation would have to commit to cont
http://www.kaiserpermanente.org/ give a lot more for a lot less by having the doctors own the hospital, charge a flat per capita fee, and control cost.
They made more by doing less rather than the other way around. What is now called HMO is not HMO but an insurance scheme to give incentives to control costs.
Then they are under-funded a wild attempt to balance the budget and then attacked in not giving everyone everything they think they should have. A few billion dollars could make Kaiser Permanente national. We now have the worse of both worlds - a great compromise like in 1835 about Slavery - In 1935 when Social Security started, people lived to an average of 65, doctors could not do much against infection, flu, pneumonia, tuberculosis, etc. In 1965 when Medicare started it was different ( Miracle drugs ) and we were at the beginning of a technological revolution, Now they can keep anyone alive until the money runs out. When will we get real ? A simple system of supports for private insurance or HMO including publicly run or non-profit hospitals with everyone on salary - ( no incentives to do more than necessary
) To get more than the basics you pay more than the basic - if you don't have the money then you get what you are given and say "thank you".From the Concord coalition: Medicare faces a two-fold dilemma.
The program, as currently structured, is financially unsustainable. Medicare costs are projected to grow faster than the payroll taxes and premiums that are dedicated to support the program. Costs are also projected to grow faster than the overall economy, and faster than can be reasonably supported by the federal budget unless spending priorities change.At the same time, compared to the health insurance coverage available to most working age Americans, Medicare offers a Spartan, out-of-date insurance package that many argue is too stingy. Others contend Medicare is too generous compared to the protections generally available to younger people. Even though the program faces financial insolvency in the future, today there is pressure to add new benefits, such as coverage for people younger than 65, prescription drugs, treatment of mental illness, protection against catastrophic expenses, and long-term care for chronically ill people.In addition, traditional Medicare makes no attempt to coordinate or manage care; it reimburses the costs of any medical treatment that beneficiaries receive, regardless of whether the treatments are cost-effective or medically effective.
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
Normal Healthy Reactions and negations: A new Third or Fourth Way
What a dull world it would be if we all agreed, if we were all alike
and what a uncreative and unproductive our society would be if there was
only one right way of thinking and doing. In the celebration of diversity
we should acknowledge the creative force of discussion, disagreement, and
conflict.
When dealing with conflict, different values, different life experience,
different cultures, different interests, different styles the first step
is to acknowledge the legitimacy of differences and a desire to look for
common humanity and common ground.
The theory of conflict resolution or
peace theories is a process of building confidence, listening and repeating
the concerns of the other side - " I hear what you saying, I understand
what you care about, want, need, and desire - I recognize your rights and
desires. " Now these are mine - where do we have room to come together
?
For example, Jerusalem - the Palestinians need some sovereignty over
East Jerusalem, and some rights over the holy places.
The Israelis need
the same thing. If both sides make dogmatic claims and say they can’t compromise
it seems an serious dilemma and could cause possible violence.
By raising the issue to a higher level joint solutions can be found
- different definitions of sovereignty, and creative common institutions
progress can be make. If both sides understand they have to live together
and give the others enough so they can have reconciliation then they can
create cross cultural institutions, linkages, contacts etc. Such a process
has worked in Northern Ireland, in the American South, South Africa, Central
America, so that the populations know and trust each other so they can
live and work together.
The dumb politics is to augment differences, to always attack any proposals
made by the opposition and exaggerated the problem. How about a new politics
- a third or fourth way - where one side responds positively to the suggestions
of the other side. " Well, that is an interesting idea - maybe we can work
something out " approach. In issues as complex as Social Security and Medicare
serious negations and compromise are required and should be recognized
rather than misleading numbers, programs and slogans by both sides.
We had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong,
Do voters and believers have defects because they refuse to believe
and act as they should ? Or do organizations have a hubris of great claims
on people’s loyalty, credibility, or subservience.
Is public policy theology ? Is theology dogma ? If it is an article
of faith that tax cuts are good even if it creates deficits, slows growth,
destroys wealth and progress ( GOP ) then that limits options;
OR you should tax the rich to benefit the poor ( fight for you against
them ) therefore discourage enterprise, wealth creation, and the ability
to fund public programs.
Instead of study and analysis of the real world - others experience,
expert studies;
But instead we had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong
:
The bluntly worded declaration by the Vatican office that oversees Catholic
doctrine said that followers of non-Christian faiths have "gravely deficient"
chances for salvation and that other Christian churches have "defects,"
partly because they do not recognize the authority of the pope.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/updates/lat_vatican000906.htm
http://msnbc.com/news/455300.asp#BODY
There is growing concern that the Bush Campaign is in deep do-do.
There
is movement to replace critical people and strategy. ." And given the gravity
of the situation and the relatively short amount of time until November,
Bush needs to get on the offensive soon. Updated governor vulnerability
ratings.
http://www.voter.com/home/news/0,3402,2--,00.html
Do we hate ideology ?
The best description of American Democracy is that done a more than
a century and half ago by Alexis de Tocqueville. American are described
as being practical, materialist, pragmatic, with a passion for slogans
and the hoopla of political activity.
The inevitable democratic trend was
due to the growth of the propertied middle classes, ( economic determinism
) new technology in communications, transportation and education ( technological
determinism ), and maybe most important the Protestant Christian theology
of the individual ( historical and psychological determinism ).
The people want to believe that they think for themselves as individuals
but are very easily influenced by their social group and the desire to
fit in and be popular. Tocqueville felt there was a dumping down in democracy
and a decline in real individualism and intellectual independence. Civic
virtue, the organized national goals, greater idealist passions, the need
for a collective organic society is wrapped in generalizations and slogans
of a obsessive, bias, and blind local and national patriotism. American
were described as people in gray suits, social conformist who feared being
different from the pack.
Since the New Deal, Old Democrats taxed Republicans to provide benefits
to democrats thereby buy their votes.
Their ideology was a form of social
democracy promoting equality and social justice. Old Republican were social,
economic and political conservatives that resisted big government and believed
in the ideology of personal liberty.
The American economy produced a much bigger middle class. Now the democrats
began to tax democrats to benefit other democrats. Republicans began to
get working class and southern votes based on tax, welfare, defense and
social - racial issues. New Democrats reacted to the charge they were the
"tax and spend" party, soft on crime, soft on communist and defense, soft
on welfare and morals, and the new Leadership became centralist as fiscal
conservatives with support for the war industries, the war on drugs, tough
on crime, the death penalty, welfare reform, balanced budgets, and other
republican issues.
The Old "new democrats" want to tax republicans to benefit
their constitutions to reinforce their base to gain some of the populist
appeal to those who feel they have not gotten enough from the growing economy.
New Republicans are integrationist, argue for social justice through
educational opportunity, support basic social security and Medicare, and
their higher purposes are to be inclusive, practical, compromise, and non-ideological
in reaction to the charge that they were mean, selfish, racist, sexist,
ideological anti-government extremist and religious fundamentalist.
The cycle has been first the New Deal - tax the republicans to benefit
the working class urban democrats. This kept the party in power for more
than half a century. Social security, Medicare are the democratic poster
child.
Then the " Southern Strategy" with Nixon and Reagan broke the Democratic
monopoly with social, racial, ideological, anti-Communist, right to life
combination. Reagan and Gingrish used the slogans of freedom, individual
liberty, the dangers of big government, to package a right wing ideological
movement with gun control the poster child of individualism.
The support
for anti-government slogans declined with prosperity and a centralist Clinton
administration.
Now Gore needed to mobilize the old democrats, tax the rich to benefit
the working class, us vs. them - plus the pragmatic moderate fiscal policy
that help produce prosperity. He does not intend to spend a lot of money.
Bush is a southern strategy person who needs to attract more moderate working
class and suburban voters.
The message of moderate republican governors
about coalition building and practical policy doesn’t seem to be getting
through.
Politesse: Idiots ?
Why when an issue become political does it become so stupid ? It doesn’t
in Europe ( as much ) as it does here. As in war the first casualty is
reason and truth.
The drug war - has not reduced drugs or even raised prices - but since
it doesn’t work do more of the same and get into a civil war in Columbia
?
The only effect can be to move production and distribution. Put a million
citizens into jail while treatment programs are under funded and full -
be sure to target young black males so they will have no useful future
in society.
The issue of Cuba and Castro - since sanctions don’t work keep them
for ever ? Because of the Cuban Vote in Florida and New Jersey let the
extreme control national policy ? Make no move to promote civil society
and racial justice and democracy but support white anti-democratic refugee
groups.
School reform - since little or no progress has been made in the inequality
or the quality of education since 1964 and Title I and other reform programs
- keep doing the same - and follow the advice of teachers unions, school
boards, and false Schools of Education ( an oxymoron ) experts who have
shown they can not improve schools ?
Since we can’t agree on abortion lets keep fighting and insulting each
other ?
The constitution calls for impeachment of elected officials for high
crimes as a rare or last resort so let’s have a huge case conducted by
lawyers on the judiciary committee from the house - when they should know
no crime was committed ( a crime is an act that can be prosecuted under
law - not just allegations and calling people names like cheater or liar
) and no prosecution is possible in this case ?
Since there will be a great deal fewer payers and a lot more receivers
of social security and Medicare let’s not discuss raising taxes or reducing
benefits and/or making them means tested - let’s pretend that we have a
quick cheap fix, no pain and all gain ?
Should add missile defense, the surplus - the social security "trust"
fund, ( when you are in debt there is no surplus )
The trillion of dollars
the government owes itself does not pay itself interest - the account is
not in surplus unless you count unpaid accounts -
Assembly, have provided a unique opportunity for us all to reflect on
our common destiny, by convening what will surely be the largest gathering
of political leaders the world has ever seen.
V. Sustaining our future
Technological waves for the next 20 years
We now face an urgent need to secure the freedom of future generations
to sustain their lives on this planet – and we are failing to do it. We
have been plundering our children’s heritage to pay for unsustainable practices.
Changing this is a challenge for rich and poor countries alike
These institutions must reflect the realities of the time, including
the distribution of power. And they must serve as an arena for states to
co-operate with non-state actors, including global companies. In many cases
they need to be complemented by less formal policy networks, which can
respond more quickly to the changing global agenda.
The gross disparities of wealth in today’s world, the miserable conditions
in which well over a billion people live, the prevalence of endemic conflict
in some regions, and the rapid degradation of the natural environment:
all these combine to make the present model of development unsustainable,
unless remedial measures are taken by common agreement.
http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/summ.htm
Globalization:
The real issues of our times ( again ) is not being talked about or
does the political process clarify the choices about the future. We desperately
need to better understand who we are and where we are going.
The mundane
and almost evil issues of greed, benefits, character narrowly defined,
are out of any context as to the purposes, goals, missions, or tasks of
a modern civilized society and changing national global realities.
Technological waves for the next 20 years
There are four steps to modern progressive global societies.
Self-government - Personal responsibilities and initiative - the idea
of self government both as a personal and political system and with economic
open markets. Competition produces both prosperity and inequality, the
rich get richer but the poor need not get poorer if the second condition
is enlivened - limits on personal or family greed - electoral reform is
a minor reflection of a much greater issue of freedom, democracy when power
and money is widely unequal.
Responsibility, because of inequality and the danger of corruption by
concentrations of power of money and military, there is a clear need for
social dependability of individual and corporations who have developed
civic duties and responsibilities beyond themselves - including supporting
the rule of law and public goods purchased through government to create
and maintain a civilized public culture.
The moral or family issues is
a thin reflection of the great issues of duty and responsibility. Social
consciousness comes from the third condition -
Trust - building confidence over time and space between groups, races,
societies, companies requires an open and honest methods of resolving disputes.
Trust is required to do business beyond a few friends and family and does
not come easily.
The religion, race and class divides are a weak reflection
of the great issues of faith and trust in neighborhoods, communities, cities,
states, nations, and beyond our borders.
The third condition sums it all
up -
Humanism - Ecology - Environment - Expanding intellectual, spiritual,
and technical capacities of the individuals in a global society including
developing institution as linkages between peoples, companies, non-profits,
foundations ( NGO s ) governments, associations, panels, conferences, professional
groups, media companies, educational institutions, the United Nations,
IMF, World Bank, Churches, women’s groups, environmental groups, and the
other of thousands of connections. GreenPeace, Doctors without Borders,
need to be matched by alliances concerned about the great majority of people
who suffer, mainly women and children.
A Global Agenda:
Expand the institutions of democracy - on a local basis by public finance
and regulation of elections, and global support for the civic culture -
the media, education, small business, internet access, rather than military
intervention which should only be the last resort.
Expand international law on corruption, massive civic crime, human rights
abuse, and on a local basis getting over the learning gap - black 17 year
olds performing as white 13 year olds - by what even means necessary -
smaller, better, more competitive schools.
Restoring Faith in institutions, public and private by serious reforms
-
The model is integration of labor, management, and the public as official
members of community.
The various European models of joint committees and
structures should be useful. This is what was called industrial democracy.
Re thinking welfare and social programs with a focus on women and children
using new public private non-profit models.
Breakdown anywhere causes problems everywhere ? Progress, reason, wealth
and investment anywhere impacts everywhere ! We need islands of hope in
a sea of troubles. One hope is the Russians are smart and many technically
trained.
There is a global shortage of technical people so there should
be something there.
The issue is not the personal fault of the people or bad habits from
socialism - but the old system is not gone but dysfunctional and has not
been replaced by a new functional one.
The pure Western Models never fitted
Russia - either Marxism or capitalist - as so many writers of the late
19th Century ( Leo Tolstoy et al ) described so beautifully.
The Russia
spirit requires collective visions, the soul needs great causes, they are
not a island of traders and merchants as France thought of England - but
dreamers and poets, saints and thieves. .
The liberation of Russia has always come from the soil, the language,
and the Orthodox Church - peasants and their MIRs.
The collective village
needs to move into the industrial age.
The fact there was no revolution,
no taking down, cleaning out, removal of the old and no image in the construction
of the new but the old system just collapsed like the Roman Empire from
it's own weight left nothing in place that works very well. Before you
destroy a system you should have a new one in mind but that's not what
happened.
I think a romantic, spiritual and mystic movement will sweep over the
country - prophets and wizards - witches and goblins are on the lose, Leo
in his while robes among the people, if not a Rasputin with a new image
of "mother Russia" that will mobilize energy and pride. We can hope it
is not too undemocratic and authoritarian but will be both because it will
be Russian not American or Western European, or Chinese - and we can hope
it will make things go better for all of us - This is the mother of all
social disasters or the passage for a great people to find their proper
place and role in the world. We need to pay attention and not be stupid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_901000/901963.stm
Pot-holed roads - or roads that end nowhere - twisted streetlamps, dilapidated
trams, wooden shacks on the outside of towns... It's all testament to a
country whose physical fabric is falling apart.
"
There has been very little capital investment in Russia for a decade.
The money received by Russia from abroad has been largely siphoned off
( stolen ) into the shadow economy, while low tax collection rates in Russia
mean few resources can be raised internally for investment.
Education and healthcare have suffered severe hardships. "
Experience suggests that social unrest - gangs - drugs crime war lords
- sort of a Somalia - West Africa - Congo - with Atomic bombs - jets -
tanks -
Since there is no way of fixing "the problem" at a global scale - simple,
small, practical islands of rational development need to develop in St.
Petersburg - out East ( Far East ) by free trade zones - development districts
outside the hopeless legal and administrative tangles.
More power in a Palm Pilot than on the Apollo 10:
The accelerating rate of change forecast more change in the next century
than in the last 10,000 years.
The increases in the rate of change between
paradigms began at about 5000 years as ideas spread slowly - domestic animals,
agriculture, metallurgy, then cities, bureaucracy and empires - then 500
years - printing, navigation, mathematics, deep mining up to the 18th century.
Then 100 years with potatoes, steam and steel, electric and chemical, communications
and computers. Now in 25 years ideas are activated that used to take a
century, then 12.5 years will have a century of 20th century progress,
then 6.25 years what used to take a century and so forth.
The acceleration
of the rate of change has been going on for a long time - it just gets
faster and faster.
Therefore if Nano computer would have taken 50 years in the past it
can be done in 12.5 years.
The speed of application of stem cells to build
body parts, cloned cells used as normal therapies, use of immunization
in treatments of ongoing virus infections and cancers, genetic engineered
plants and animals as a normal accepted process, all being implemented
at great speed. Even in a slow bulky industries such as cars - the fuel
cell will move along more quickly than such technologies would have in
the past. This really effects markets, marketing, and business planning
in very fundamental ways.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/business/index.shtml
go to weekly then global business at the bottom of page
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computer Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Paperback - January 2000)
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Hardcover - January 1999)
Darwin Among the Machines :
The Evolution of Global Intelligence (Helix
Books) by George B. Dyson (Paperback - October 1998)
http://www8.bcity.com/book_bargains/spiritual_machines.htm
There are only three or four issues that have dominated Western then
Global Politics for the last few centuries.
The desire for liberty ( freedom
from excessive state control ) led to the need for self government. Since
we don’t want kings, priest and tribal chiefs to tell us what to do and
how to think and behave we have to do more thinking on our own and make
more complex value judgments. This is the first modern political issue
- now taking the form of the corruption by money of politics, the talk
about big corporations, media and money having excessive control over our
lives.
The second issue is due to the fact that God so loved the poor he made
a lot of them. Equity is an ancient issue that arose in the first popular
government in Greece and repeats itself in many forms.
The poor majorities
under the leadership of a demigod or tyrant will pander to the mob to redistribute
the wealth, forgive debts ( or inflate the currency to make debts payable
in cheap money ) and pander to the passions, the desire for bread and circuses,
and foster other popular superstitions. Now this is called class warfare
or the needs of the needy vs. the greed of the greedy. Benefits paid for
by the rich for the benefit of the poor, public welfare bribes are offered
to buy votes.
Therefore, the third issue is how to protect and expand freedom from
the dangers of Democratic systems - positive freedom is the ability to
make WISE choices unlike a passive liberty which is the negative freedom
from coercion and the right to be wrong.
There is no positive freedom in
ignorance, superstition, prejudice, and in short in being stupid.
Therefore
a civic state depends on education and a civic culture. Otherwise it become
popular tyranny either of the right or left. This issue now takes the form
of education and mobility. If we can really teach poor children to gain
skills we can also teach them to behave and act like other middle class
responsible people.
The last issue is the global vs. national views - the role of humanity
and transcendental values over day to day benefits and who gets what, when
and how. Now this issue comes out as having goals greater than ourselves,
the uses of riches, the nature of the environment, social responsibility,
family values, and the proper respect for the opinions of mankind and the
moral standards of a community of nations.
Real Reform.com
American Association for Constitutional Reform
The issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where
I can find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century
electoral structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the
money required to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to
change the structure of the elections - a change from independent single
member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution
) to a system with clear party responsibility.
The parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and
responsibilities OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican
or Democrat has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should
be some implied contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party
at all.
The national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The congress has become 535 independent small business people without
much discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because
the talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark )
so there is some connection between executive and congressional authority
is one suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate
federal elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs
to be replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational
process of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not
a scramble of state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court
decisions along with the changing results of infighting within fractional
political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law
should not be in doubt - this does now effect the bill of rights - but
only the structure of he process of running elections.
In the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can
be much fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core
of democracy - they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines
the foundations of freedom and representative government.
Federal Elections in the Constitution:
In order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom of political speech, competition, and the free expression of
the will of the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate
has a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not
withstanding any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past
circumstances.
( replaces: Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment
17 on the Senate, Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president
)
Federal Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative,
or congressional referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections,
as proposals for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws
to be enacted or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an
election on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary
in the middle of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including
the nomination process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries
could be done nationally in early September with a run off in the last
week of September with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October
(Enough is enough ) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited
in their expenditures.
An even longer view:
Message board and Live voice chat at
http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/mbs.cgi/mb843898
and
http://www.coolboard.com/boardshow.cfm/mb=632494864835909
and
http://live.av.com/scripts/community.dll?ep=16&groupid=2117&ck=
http://www.coolboard.com/boardshow.cfm/mb=632494864835909 and
http://live.av.com/scripts/community.dll?ep=16&groupid=2117&ck=
Search
this site
powered by FreeFindGO |
Use search words such as sufi, policy, education, technology, communications, GlobalVillage School
Multicrawl
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
Web
Hosting
>
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
ppppflaump@cfl.rr.com - http://www.wiredbrain.net/
post.htm
on the VAT ( Value added tax ) or national sales tax
initiative.htm
ELECTION 2000
issues.htm
symbian.htm
http://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/ssact/title04/0423.htm
Basic Education as a federal responsibility:
The national interest and general welfare require a large federal role in public compulsory education. This was not as true in the last centuries but is clearly one of the most important if not the most important federal function. "A 2000 PricewaterhouseCoopers report found that intellectual assets now account for 78 percent of the total value of American S&P 500 companies."
"According to a 2000 OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] report, since 1985, the expansion of knowledge-based industries has outpaced gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the developed countries. Knowledge-based industries now account for more than half of OECD-wide GDP." Welcome, to the Knowledge Age.BUT since we are a federal system and have a long history of local school boards we can not just start from scratch.Each state with consultations with local school system should come up with a plan to provide basic education - reading ( the nation reads ) writing ( the nation writes ) algebra and other math ( the nation reasons and calculates ) students knows geography, history, government, humanities, the sciences and the scientific methods - all standards and evaluations set by the states.
Then there is a calculation of what the direct provision of these educational services cost.
Then the application for expected expenditures for the next quarter of 75 % of the costs as a entitlement - with adjustments for over and under payments from the last payment.
The states should report how much would be used for property tax relief - how much for salaries ( and if there would be a state wide pay scales with steps - grades like the GS system ).
These costs should not include support, administration, transportation, athletics, construction, maintenance, bureaucracy, etc. Because these costs remain state and local responsibility and are too much a can of worms.
The national estimated cost per student for instruction could be fairly clear at about $ 2,500 for elementary and $ 4,500 for secondary ( half the total cost ) x 50 million students ( 1 million x $ 1000 = 1 billion ) so 50 million x $ 3,500 = $ 175 Billion x 75 % = $ 132 billion. Using language similar to that for social services in the SS Act.. From the sums appropriated ( or by entitlement as it used to be ) and the allotment under this subpart, subject to the conditions set forth in this section, the Secretary ( DOE ) shall from time to time pay to each State that has a plan developed in accordance with regulations an amount equal to 75 per centime of the total sum expended under the plan in meeting the costs of State, district, county, or other local basic educational instructional services.
The federal government will pay 75 % of teachers salaries and benefits ( involved in direct instruction = about 2.5 million teachers @ $ 30,000 = 75 billion ) and left to the states and local school boards, all the other costs - administration, football, transportation, construction, utilities, then: We could become a modern civilized society with a world class school system, social justice, economic growth, and political democracy.
There could be substantial tax relief on property taxes - standards set for teacher certification - much better salaries for some low paid teachers and salary grades for high performing teachers tied to the GS federal scales:http://www.seemyad.com/gov/salary.htm
The big problems in American Public education are:
There is no career stream for classroom teachers - pay is only based on seniority and there is not much difference if you stay in instruction from start to finish.
There has been a vast growth in administrative overhead from 15 % in the 1960's to 50 % today so increases in resources are absorbed by overhead. In the last decade there has been a vast underhanded growth in ESE ( special education ) from 5 % of population to 25 % and a jungle of paperwork without functional outcomes.
The labeling of students make standards even harder - ESE students are not counted or counted differently - so if someone doesn't learn they are learning disabled and labeled - given more resources - and excluded from the testing of school outcomes.
There has been for decades weak support for standards - support in general but backing off when the tire hits the road and students actually FLUNK and are
We have to adjust to the new political realities - mass marketing of characters as products.Electoral choice is a weak choice for most people. People care more about household products such as toothpaste or breakfast cereal than their congress person.
There are a minority who project on politics their passions and loves and hates that have little political meaning - Some have been harmed by change - industrial or cultural - some have guilt, shame or projections - anti-foreign, protection, abortion, anti-establishment conspiracies - the Clinton's case ( reverse of the Nixon Case )
The base of politics today is emotion and sediment ( largely negative ) - as you see every day in the media - commercials are founded on the "hook" or how to tie the image of a product to a passion - sex, greed, shame, hope, hype - and the billions spent on commercials must work. Cars are creating status and exciting for drivers, products make you happy, sexy and smart, "you get inside it - and it gets inside you".
So we have maybe 10 % interested in issues - real choices based on interests - 20 % concerned with psycho-dynamics ( how does it feel ? What do I like or hate - true believer who projects their passions on the open screen ) - 30 % on transit and superficial reasons - talk shows, appearances and "character". makes 60 % who even pay attention and the rest don't care and don't vote at all.
If there was a depression or war or real civil unrest ( such as in the civil rights, Vietnam case ) maybe people would care and pay attention. We do not have ideological politics or do people carry little consistent theories in their heads - they have optioning that are generated by the moment and a moment latter could be different. That's the way it is - so why blame political campaigns for doing what they have to do to win ?
Our constitution was set up with the idea that Republican government depends on rational elites - better educated, better motivated, with an sense of civic virtue, civilly minded, public-spirited, community-minded - and a model of opinion where the leaders ideas are passed down. Real issues for real people can not be left to mass politics.
The problems such as Social Security is too complex - of course "they" just want more for less or nothing -
The real problem is the decline in the elite caused by economic change and the rise of the sunbelt and Wild West.
There is a weak media elite, weak academic leadership, weak economic leadership ( lost in a tangle of special interest )
The reason congress spends more time in ideological showmanship because the establishment is so fractured. In the old days there would be power brokers to make them behave. ( Bankers, editors, older politicians, party leaders - could control wild rhetoric and excessive patrician passions ) Both Clinton and Newt are outsiders without proper credentials and behavior did not conform to expected standards.
We have to adjust to the new realities - mass marketing of " characters " as products. It ends up as their ad agencies vs. our ad agencies, their commercials vs. our commercials - the selling of the presidency. Not beautiful, not wise, not true - but that's the way it is and why money matters- better ads and better coverage -
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/09/imf-europe A huge U.S. trade deficit could turn into a serious problem for the American economy if foreigners were to decide suddenly to dump dollar-denominated assets, which could push the U.S. currency down sharply and trigger steep declines in U.S. stock and bond markets http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/08/news-world-economy Referring to the various threats, the IMF said, "
The possibility that these imbalances may unwind in a disorderly fashion remains a risk to the global expansion." As for oil, the IMF said oil prices are about 20 percent higher than the IMF had assumed in its economic forecast, an increase of $5 a barrel. It estimated this should add $40 billion over a year's time to the oil import bills of industrial countries and cut their economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.
salestax.htm
The question of the commons in the sky:Airports would agree to a pattern or take off and landing which then would be sold to airlines - airspace would fit the capacity of getting in and out - and airline schedules would be limited to what the airports can handle. Ticket prices would reflect the supply and demand of time and location specific travel. Travelers would pay more for high demand times and locations. People going for pleasure could select a secondary airport and odd times, business would pay a premium for best sites at the best times.
The theme of public policy for the next generation is how services are delivered. Various patterns of public, private for and not for profit organization will bring competition, modern management practice and benefit / cost analysis into common services.
The air transport situation is a classic case of mixed up systems where the mixture has not worked. Deregulation of the airline carriers, city-state private airports, public air traffic controllers, regulation of the safety of air traffic and aircraft by the FAA and the various unions and interest groups all going after their own interest and can easily screw up the whole system.
The system analysis of the whole system seems to be weak.
They all depend on each other but seem to rather fight and blame each other then give up their any of special interests. Airports try to move more "tin" than they can handle because airlines want to schedule more flights to be competitive and not let others move it. Airlines are supported by public airports, weather, traffic controllers and taxpayers pay a lot of the construction cash as are road and barge transport. Airplanes benefit from defense contracts and research.
The idea is to change air traffic control into a non-profit modern organization such as been happening in Canada and Europe. A semi-private corporation could move faster on new technology.
Then airports should be able to compete for services and finance expansions and ground transport.
The national regulation of safety should be set by global systems analysis of capacity and safety issues. Each part of the system needs to fit together and adjust for bad weather and heavy load factors. We need a system designed for a billion passengers per year, then two billion or what ever we can manage.
Time to come clean, time to win:Remember Ross Parot and those charts on the federal deficits, an issue that both parties want to avoid. It was called the 600 pound guerilla no one want to notice. Now the issue is Social Security and Medicare is an 800 blue monkey no one want to handle except in unreal ways by pretending it will go away. Those now retiring were born 65 years ago in 1935 with aa birth cohort of a litle over two million. Many were not covered - farm and domestic labor - and come under SSI, and other Aid to the Elderly - about 500,000 claim Medicare and Social Security next year. In 1950 four million babies who live longer, augmented by immigration will make 2 million or more claims in 2015. ( In very round numbers ) We have a 10 trillion economy and 20 % in federal programs. In a little over a generation we can double the economy to 20 - 25 trillion, 20 % is 4 trillion budget.
The cost of Medicare in the 1960’s was 1/10 of what is now per person, 4 % of GDP in Health to about 11 % and going to 20 % without market pressures. If no real change is made in benefits ( likely to increase such as drugs ) and cost increase only slightly more than inflation, retirement benefits will absorb 75 % of a four trillion federal budget - equal to about 3.0 trillion, ( 10 % of a 25 trillion GDP ) and about 20 % of all personal income will be going to support the program for the retired one way or another. This means all other federal programs have the same dollar amount they now have - a real cut of more than 50 % - for parks, defense, agriculture, education, transportation, et al. Not realistic -
There is only one way out - let’s face it !A plan to subsidize savings so that in twenty years 65 % of all families have a private retirement plan with benefits equal to 80 % of their income is the only way out. Private insurance and free markets ( subsidized for the poor ) such as the Federal Employees ( supported by Bradley ) have is the only way that makes sense. Benefits must be means tested and run privately but subsidized for those in need.
The vast increase in private saving and investment would mean we can double the economy in a generation and afford to pay the bills while not ruining the economy. If Bush dropped his tax plan and took on Gore on the realities of Social Security / Medicare Gore would fumble and look dishonest - because he know the truth but is afraid of the truth as he did on meet the press. It could stash victory from the jaws of defeat.
The only way to get such a privatization plan is to triangulate democrats ( many support such a realistic idea ) and win the middle. On education Bush is more realistic and supports competition, these two great issues with a pay down of the debt ( small targeted tax cuts ) can still win. Bush would really have to bone up on a complex issue - have charts- and sell the program. http://www.aamc.org/advocacy/issues/commssns/nbcfm.htm
The plan, offered by Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) and Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) received 10 of the super-majority 11 votes (out of 17) needed for the commission to make recommendations to President Clinton and the Congress.
The commission has since disbanded without a report issued to the Congress and President Clinton. However, both Sen. Breaux and Rep. Thomas have indicated that they intend to use the commission document as a basis for introducing Medicare reform legislation. Under a premium-based support model, private plans would submit their plan and premiums for approval to a Medicare Board in order to compete with one another and with traditional Medicare fee-for-service.
The Breaux/ Thomas plan specifically states that submitted premiums from the government-run FFS or private plans would not include calculations of "all non-insurance functions and special payments now in Medicare." Medicare spending is projected to reach 4.4 % to 8 % percent of GDP by 2030. This means nearly quardupling the resources our nation would have to commit to cont
http://www.kaiserpermanente.org/ give a lot more for a lot less by having the doctors own the hospital, charge a flat per capita fee, and control cost.
They made more by doing less rather than the other way around. What is now called HMO is not HMO but an insurance scheme to give incentives to control costs.
Then they are under-funded a wild attempt to balance the budget and then attacked in not giving everyone everything they think they should have. A few billion dollars could make Kaiser Permanente national. We now have the worse of both worlds - a great compromise like in 1835 about Slavery - In 1935 when Social Security started, people lived to an average of 65, doctors could not do much against infection, flu, pneumonia, tuberculosis, etc. In 1965 when Medicare started it was different ( Miracle drugs ) and we were at the beginning of a technological revolution, Now they can keep anyone alive until the money runs out. When will we get real ? A simple system of supports for private insurance or HMO including publicly run or non-profit hospitals with everyone on salary - ( no incentives to do more than necessary
) To get more than the basics you pay more than the basic - if you don't have the money then you get what you are given and say "thank you".From the Concord coalition: Medicare faces a two-fold dilemma.
The program, as currently structured, is financially unsustainable. Medicare costs are projected to grow faster than the payroll taxes and premiums that are dedicated to support the program. Costs are also projected to grow faster than the overall economy, and faster than can be reasonably supported by the federal budget unless spending priorities change.At the same time, compared to the health insurance coverage available to most working age Americans, Medicare offers a Spartan, out-of-date insurance package that many argue is too stingy. Others contend Medicare is too generous compared to the protections generally available to younger people. Even though the program faces financial insolvency in the future, today there is pressure to add new benefits, such as coverage for people younger than 65, prescription drugs, treatment of mental illness, protection against catastrophic expenses, and long-term care for chronically ill people.In addition, traditional Medicare makes no attempt to coordinate or manage care; it reimburses the costs of any medical treatment that beneficiaries receive, regardless of whether the treatments are cost-effective or medically effective.
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
Normal Healthy Reactions and negations: A new Third or Fourth Way
What a dull world it would be if we all agreed, if we were all alike
and what a uncreative and unproductive our society would be if there was
only one right way of thinking and doing. In the celebration of diversity
we should acknowledge the creative force of discussion, disagreement, and
conflict.
When dealing with conflict, different values, different life experience,
different cultures, different interests, different styles the first step
is to acknowledge the legitimacy of differences and a desire to look for
common humanity and common ground.
The theory of conflict resolution or
peace theories is a process of building confidence, listening and repeating
the concerns of the other side - " I hear what you saying, I understand
what you care about, want, need, and desire - I recognize your rights and
desires. " Now these are mine - where do we have room to come together
?
For example, Jerusalem - the Palestinians need some sovereignty over
East Jerusalem, and some rights over the holy places.
The Israelis need
the same thing. If both sides make dogmatic claims and say they can’t compromise
it seems an serious dilemma and could cause possible violence.
By raising the issue to a higher level joint solutions can be found
- different definitions of sovereignty, and creative common institutions
progress can be make. If both sides understand they have to live together
and give the others enough so they can have reconciliation then they can
create cross cultural institutions, linkages, contacts etc. Such a process
has worked in Northern Ireland, in the American South, South Africa, Central
America, so that the populations know and trust each other so they can
live and work together.
The dumb politics is to augment differences, to always attack any proposals
made by the opposition and exaggerated the problem. How about a new politics
- a third or fourth way - where one side responds positively to the suggestions
of the other side. " Well, that is an interesting idea - maybe we can work
something out " approach. In issues as complex as Social Security and Medicare
serious negations and compromise are required and should be recognized
rather than misleading numbers, programs and slogans by both sides.
We had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong,
Do voters and believers have defects because they refuse to believe
and act as they should ? Or do organizations have a hubris of great claims
on people’s loyalty, credibility, or subservience.
Is public policy theology ? Is theology dogma ? If it is an article
of faith that tax cuts are good even if it creates deficits, slows growth,
destroys wealth and progress ( GOP ) then that limits options;
OR you should tax the rich to benefit the poor ( fight for you against
them ) therefore discourage enterprise, wealth creation, and the ability
to fund public programs.
Instead of study and analysis of the real world - others experience,
expert studies;
But instead we had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong
:
The bluntly worded declaration by the Vatican office that oversees Catholic
doctrine said that followers of non-Christian faiths have "gravely deficient"
chances for salvation and that other Christian churches have "defects,"
partly because they do not recognize the authority of the pope.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/updates/lat_vatican000906.htm
http://msnbc.com/news/455300.asp#BODY
There is growing concern that the Bush Campaign is in deep do-do.
There
is movement to replace critical people and strategy. ." And given the gravity
of the situation and the relatively short amount of time until November,
Bush needs to get on the offensive soon. Updated governor vulnerability
ratings.
http://www.voter.com/home/news/0,3402,2--,00.html
Do we hate ideology ?
The best description of American Democracy is that done a more than
a century and half ago by Alexis de Tocqueville. American are described
as being practical, materialist, pragmatic, with a passion for slogans
and the hoopla of political activity.
The inevitable democratic trend was
due to the growth of the propertied middle classes, ( economic determinism
) new technology in communications, transportation and education ( technological
determinism ), and maybe most important the Protestant Christian theology
of the individual ( historical and psychological determinism ).
The people want to believe that they think for themselves as individuals
but are very easily influenced by their social group and the desire to
fit in and be popular. Tocqueville felt there was a dumping down in democracy
and a decline in real individualism and intellectual independence. Civic
virtue, the organized national goals, greater idealist passions, the need
for a collective organic society is wrapped in generalizations and slogans
of a obsessive, bias, and blind local and national patriotism. American
were described as people in gray suits, social conformist who feared being
different from the pack.
Since the New Deal, Old Democrats taxed Republicans to provide benefits
to democrats thereby buy their votes.
Their ideology was a form of social
democracy promoting equality and social justice. Old Republican were social,
economic and political conservatives that resisted big government and believed
in the ideology of personal liberty.
The American economy produced a much bigger middle class. Now the democrats
began to tax democrats to benefit other democrats. Republicans began to
get working class and southern votes based on tax, welfare, defense and
social - racial issues. New Democrats reacted to the charge they were the
"tax and spend" party, soft on crime, soft on communist and defense, soft
on welfare and morals, and the new Leadership became centralist as fiscal
conservatives with support for the war industries, the war on drugs, tough
on crime, the death penalty, welfare reform, balanced budgets, and other
republican issues.
The Old "new democrats" want to tax republicans to benefit
their constitutions to reinforce their base to gain some of the populist
appeal to those who feel they have not gotten enough from the growing economy.
New Republicans are integrationist, argue for social justice through
educational opportunity, support basic social security and Medicare, and
their higher purposes are to be inclusive, practical, compromise, and non-ideological
in reaction to the charge that they were mean, selfish, racist, sexist,
ideological anti-government extremist and religious fundamentalist.
The cycle has been first the New Deal - tax the republicans to benefit
the working class urban democrats. This kept the party in power for more
than half a century. Social security, Medicare are the democratic poster
child.
Then the " Southern Strategy" with Nixon and Reagan broke the Democratic
monopoly with social, racial, ideological, anti-Communist, right to life
combination. Reagan and Gingrish used the slogans of freedom, individual
liberty, the dangers of big government, to package a right wing ideological
movement with gun control the poster child of individualism.
The support
for anti-government slogans declined with prosperity and a centralist Clinton
administration.
Now Gore needed to mobilize the old democrats, tax the rich to benefit
the working class, us vs. them - plus the pragmatic moderate fiscal policy
that help produce prosperity. He does not intend to spend a lot of money.
Bush is a southern strategy person who needs to attract more moderate working
class and suburban voters.
The message of moderate republican governors
about coalition building and practical policy doesn’t seem to be getting
through.
Politesse: Idiots ?
Why when an issue become political does it become so stupid ? It doesn’t
in Europe ( as much ) as it does here. As in war the first casualty is
reason and truth.
The drug war - has not reduced drugs or even raised prices - but since
it doesn’t work do more of the same and get into a civil war in Columbia
?
The only effect can be to move production and distribution. Put a million
citizens into jail while treatment programs are under funded and full -
be sure to target young black males so they will have no useful future
in society.
The issue of Cuba and Castro - since sanctions don’t work keep them
for ever ? Because of the Cuban Vote in Florida and New Jersey let the
extreme control national policy ? Make no move to promote civil society
and racial justice and democracy but support white anti-democratic refugee
groups.
School reform - since little or no progress has been made in the inequality
or the quality of education since 1964 and Title I and other reform programs
- keep doing the same - and follow the advice of teachers unions, school
boards, and false Schools of Education ( an oxymoron ) experts who have
shown they can not improve schools ?
Since we can’t agree on abortion lets keep fighting and insulting each
other ?
The constitution calls for impeachment of elected officials for high
crimes as a rare or last resort so let’s have a huge case conducted by
lawyers on the judiciary committee from the house - when they should know
no crime was committed ( a crime is an act that can be prosecuted under
law - not just allegations and calling people names like cheater or liar
) and no prosecution is possible in this case ?
Since there will be a great deal fewer payers and a lot more receivers
of social security and Medicare let’s not discuss raising taxes or reducing
benefits and/or making them means tested - let’s pretend that we have a
quick cheap fix, no pain and all gain ?
Should add missile defense, the surplus - the social security "trust"
fund, ( when you are in debt there is no surplus )
The trillion of dollars
the government owes itself does not pay itself interest - the account is
not in surplus unless you count unpaid accounts -
Assembly, have provided a unique opportunity for us all to reflect on
our common destiny, by convening what will surely be the largest gathering
of political leaders the world has ever seen.
V. Sustaining our future
Technological waves for the next 20 years
We now face an urgent need to secure the freedom of future generations
to sustain their lives on this planet – and we are failing to do it. We
have been plundering our children’s heritage to pay for unsustainable practices.
Changing this is a challenge for rich and poor countries alike
These institutions must reflect the realities of the time, including
the distribution of power. And they must serve as an arena for states to
co-operate with non-state actors, including global companies. In many cases
they need to be complemented by less formal policy networks, which can
respond more quickly to the changing global agenda.
The gross disparities of wealth in today’s world, the miserable conditions
in which well over a billion people live, the prevalence of endemic conflict
in some regions, and the rapid degradation of the natural environment:
all these combine to make the present model of development unsustainable,
unless remedial measures are taken by common agreement.
http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/summ.htm
Globalization:
The real issues of our times ( again ) is not being talked about or
does the political process clarify the choices about the future. We desperately
need to better understand who we are and where we are going.
The mundane
and almost evil issues of greed, benefits, character narrowly defined,
are out of any context as to the purposes, goals, missions, or tasks of
a modern civilized society and changing national global realities.
Technological waves for the next 20 years
There are four steps to modern progressive global societies.
Self-government - Personal responsibilities and initiative - the idea
of self government both as a personal and political system and with economic
open markets. Competition produces both prosperity and inequality, the
rich get richer but the poor need not get poorer if the second condition
is enlivened - limits on personal or family greed - electoral reform is
a minor reflection of a much greater issue of freedom, democracy when power
and money is widely unequal.
Responsibility, because of inequality and the danger of corruption by
concentrations of power of money and military, there is a clear need for
social dependability of individual and corporations who have developed
civic duties and responsibilities beyond themselves - including supporting
the rule of law and public goods purchased through government to create
and maintain a civilized public culture.
The moral or family issues is
a thin reflection of the great issues of duty and responsibility. Social
consciousness comes from the third condition -
Trust - building confidence over time and space between groups, races,
societies, companies requires an open and honest methods of resolving disputes.
Trust is required to do business beyond a few friends and family and does
not come easily.
The religion, race and class divides are a weak reflection
of the great issues of faith and trust in neighborhoods, communities, cities,
states, nations, and beyond our borders.
The third condition sums it all
up -
Humanism - Ecology - Environment - Expanding intellectual, spiritual,
and technical capacities of the individuals in a global society including
developing institution as linkages between peoples, companies, non-profits,
foundations ( NGO s ) governments, associations, panels, conferences, professional
groups, media companies, educational institutions, the United Nations,
IMF, World Bank, Churches, women’s groups, environmental groups, and the
other of thousands of connections. GreenPeace, Doctors without Borders,
need to be matched by alliances concerned about the great majority of people
who suffer, mainly women and children.
A Global Agenda:
Expand the institutions of democracy - on a local basis by public finance
and regulation of elections, and global support for the civic culture -
the media, education, small business, internet access, rather than military
intervention which should only be the last resort.
Expand international law on corruption, massive civic crime, human rights
abuse, and on a local basis getting over the learning gap - black 17 year
olds performing as white 13 year olds - by what even means necessary -
smaller, better, more competitive schools.
Restoring Faith in institutions, public and private by serious reforms
-
The model is integration of labor, management, and the public as official
members of community.
The various European models of joint committees and
structures should be useful. This is what was called industrial democracy.
Re thinking welfare and social programs with a focus on women and children
using new public private non-profit models.
Breakdown anywhere causes problems everywhere ? Progress, reason, wealth
and investment anywhere impacts everywhere ! We need islands of hope in
a sea of troubles. One hope is the Russians are smart and many technically
trained.
There is a global shortage of technical people so there should
be something there.
The issue is not the personal fault of the people or bad habits from
socialism - but the old system is not gone but dysfunctional and has not
been replaced by a new functional one.
The pure Western Models never fitted
Russia - either Marxism or capitalist - as so many writers of the late
19th Century ( Leo Tolstoy et al ) described so beautifully.
The Russia
spirit requires collective visions, the soul needs great causes, they are
not a island of traders and merchants as France thought of England - but
dreamers and poets, saints and thieves. .
The liberation of Russia has always come from the soil, the language,
and the Orthodox Church - peasants and their MIRs.
The collective village
needs to move into the industrial age.
The fact there was no revolution,
no taking down, cleaning out, removal of the old and no image in the construction
of the new but the old system just collapsed like the Roman Empire from
it's own weight left nothing in place that works very well. Before you
destroy a system you should have a new one in mind but that's not what
happened.
I think a romantic, spiritual and mystic movement will sweep over the
country - prophets and wizards - witches and goblins are on the lose, Leo
in his while robes among the people, if not a Rasputin with a new image
of "mother Russia" that will mobilize energy and pride. We can hope it
is not too undemocratic and authoritarian but will be both because it will
be Russian not American or Western European, or Chinese - and we can hope
it will make things go better for all of us - This is the mother of all
social disasters or the passage for a great people to find their proper
place and role in the world. We need to pay attention and not be stupid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_901000/901963.stm
Pot-holed roads - or roads that end nowhere - twisted streetlamps, dilapidated
trams, wooden shacks on the outside of towns... It's all testament to a
country whose physical fabric is falling apart.
"
There has been very little capital investment in Russia for a decade.
The money received by Russia from abroad has been largely siphoned off
( stolen ) into the shadow economy, while low tax collection rates in Russia
mean few resources can be raised internally for investment.
Education and healthcare have suffered severe hardships. "
Experience suggests that social unrest - gangs - drugs crime war lords
- sort of a Somalia - West Africa - Congo - with Atomic bombs - jets -
tanks -
Since there is no way of fixing "the problem" at a global scale - simple,
small, practical islands of rational development need to develop in St.
Petersburg - out East ( Far East ) by free trade zones - development districts
outside the hopeless legal and administrative tangles.
More power in a Palm Pilot than on the Apollo 10:
The accelerating rate of change forecast more change in the next century
than in the last 10,000 years.
The increases in the rate of change between
paradigms began at about 5000 years as ideas spread slowly - domestic animals,
agriculture, metallurgy, then cities, bureaucracy and empires - then 500
years - printing, navigation, mathematics, deep mining up to the 18th century.
Then 100 years with potatoes, steam and steel, electric and chemical, communications
and computers. Now in 25 years ideas are activated that used to take a
century, then 12.5 years will have a century of 20th century progress,
then 6.25 years what used to take a century and so forth.
The acceleration
of the rate of change has been going on for a long time - it just gets
faster and faster.
Therefore if Nano computer would have taken 50 years in the past it
can be done in 12.5 years.
The speed of application of stem cells to build
body parts, cloned cells used as normal therapies, use of immunization
in treatments of ongoing virus infections and cancers, genetic engineered
plants and animals as a normal accepted process, all being implemented
at great speed. Even in a slow bulky industries such as cars - the fuel
cell will move along more quickly than such technologies would have in
the past. This really effects markets, marketing, and business planning
in very fundamental ways.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/business/index.shtml
go to weekly then global business at the bottom of page
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computer Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Paperback - January 2000)
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Hardcover - January 1999)
Darwin Among the Machines :
The Evolution of Global Intelligence (Helix
Books) by George B. Dyson (Paperback - October 1998)
http://www8.bcity.com/book_bargains/spiritual_machines.htm
There are only three or four issues that have dominated Western then
Global Politics for the last few centuries.
The desire for liberty ( freedom
from excessive state control ) led to the need for self government. Since
we don’t want kings, priest and tribal chiefs to tell us what to do and
how to think and behave we have to do more thinking on our own and make
more complex value judgments. This is the first modern political issue
- now taking the form of the corruption by money of politics, the talk
about big corporations, media and money having excessive control over our
lives.
The second issue is due to the fact that God so loved the poor he made
a lot of them. Equity is an ancient issue that arose in the first popular
government in Greece and repeats itself in many forms.
The poor majorities
under the leadership of a demigod or tyrant will pander to the mob to redistribute
the wealth, forgive debts ( or inflate the currency to make debts payable
in cheap money ) and pander to the passions, the desire for bread and circuses,
and foster other popular superstitions. Now this is called class warfare
or the needs of the needy vs. the greed of the greedy. Benefits paid for
by the rich for the benefit of the poor, public welfare bribes are offered
to buy votes.
Therefore, the third issue is how to protect and expand freedom from
the dangers of Democratic systems - positive freedom is the ability to
make WISE choices unlike a passive liberty which is the negative freedom
from coercion and the right to be wrong.
There is no positive freedom in
ignorance, superstition, prejudice, and in short in being stupid.
Therefore
a civic state depends on education and a civic culture. Otherwise it become
popular tyranny either of the right or left. This issue now takes the form
of education and mobility. If we can really teach poor children to gain
skills we can also teach them to behave and act like other middle class
responsible people.
The last issue is the global vs. national views - the role of humanity
and transcendental values over day to day benefits and who gets what, when
and how. Now this issue comes out as having goals greater than ourselves,
the uses of riches, the nature of the environment, social responsibility,
family values, and the proper respect for the opinions of mankind and the
moral standards of a community of nations.
Real Reform.com
American Association for Constitutional Reform
The issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where
I can find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century
electoral structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the
money required to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to
change the structure of the elections - a change from independent single
member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution
) to a system with clear party responsibility.
The parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and
responsibilities OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican
or Democrat has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should
be some implied contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party
at all.
The national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The congress has become 535 independent small business people without
much discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because
the talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark )
so there is some connection between executive and congressional authority
is one suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate
federal elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs
to be replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational
process of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not
a scramble of state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court
decisions along with the changing results of infighting within fractional
political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law
should not be in doubt - this does now effect the bill of rights - but
only the structure of he process of running elections.
In the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can
be much fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core
of democracy - they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines
the foundations of freedom and representative government.
Federal Elections in the Constitution:
In order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom of political speech, competition, and the free expression of
the will of the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate
has a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not
withstanding any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past
circumstances.
( replaces: Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment
17 on the Senate, Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president
)
Federal Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative,
or congressional referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections,
as proposals for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws
to be enacted or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an
election on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary
in the middle of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including
the nomination process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries
could be done nationally in early September with a run off in the last
week of September with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October
(Enough is enough ) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited
in their expenditures.
An even longer view:
Multicrawl
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
Web
Hosting
>
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
ppppflaump@cfl.rr.com - http://www.wiredbrain.net/
post.htm
on the VAT ( Value added tax ) or national sales tax
initiative.htm
ELECTION 2000
issues.htm
symbian.htm
http://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/ssact/title04/0423.htm
Basic Education as a federal responsibility:
The national interest and general welfare require a large federal role in public compulsory education. This was not as true in the last centuries but is clearly one of the most important if not the most important federal function. "A 2000 PricewaterhouseCoopers report found that intellectual assets now account for 78 percent of the total value of American S&P 500 companies."
"According to a 2000 OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] report, since 1985, the expansion of knowledge-based industries has outpaced gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the developed countries. Knowledge-based industries now account for more than half of OECD-wide GDP." Welcome, to the Knowledge Age.BUT since we are a federal system and have a long history of local school boards we can not just start from scratch.Each state with consultations with local school system should come up with a plan to provide basic education - reading ( the nation reads ) writing ( the nation writes ) algebra and other math ( the nation reasons and calculates ) students knows geography, history, government, humanities, the sciences and the scientific methods - all standards and evaluations set by the states.
Then there is a calculation of what the direct provision of these educational services cost.
Then the application for expected expenditures for the next quarter of 75 % of the costs as a entitlement - with adjustments for over and under payments from the last payment.
The states should report how much would be used for property tax relief - how much for salaries ( and if there would be a state wide pay scales with steps - grades like the GS system ).
These costs should not include support, administration, transportation, athletics, construction, maintenance, bureaucracy, etc. Because these costs remain state and local responsibility and are too much a can of worms.
The national estimated cost per student for instruction could be fairly clear at about $ 2,500 for elementary and $ 4,500 for secondary ( half the total cost ) x 50 million students ( 1 million x $ 1000 = 1 billion ) so 50 million x $ 3,500 = $ 175 Billion x 75 % = $ 132 billion. Using language similar to that for social services in the SS Act.. From the sums appropriated ( or by entitlement as it used to be ) and the allotment under this subpart, subject to the conditions set forth in this section, the Secretary ( DOE ) shall from time to time pay to each State that has a plan developed in accordance with regulations an amount equal to 75 per centime of the total sum expended under the plan in meeting the costs of State, district, county, or other local basic educational instructional services.
The federal government will pay 75 % of teachers salaries and benefits ( involved in direct instruction = about 2.5 million teachers @ $ 30,000 = 75 billion ) and left to the states and local school boards, all the other costs - administration, football, transportation, construction, utilities, then: We could become a modern civilized society with a world class school system, social justice, economic growth, and political democracy.
There could be substantial tax relief on property taxes - standards set for teacher certification - much better salaries for some low paid teachers and salary grades for high performing teachers tied to the GS federal scales:http://www.seemyad.com/gov/salary.htm
The big problems in American Public education are:
There is no career stream for classroom teachers - pay is only based on seniority and there is not much difference if you stay in instruction from start to finish.
There has been a vast growth in administrative overhead from 15 % in the 1960's to 50 % today so increases in resources are absorbed by overhead. In the last decade there has been a vast underhanded growth in ESE ( special education ) from 5 % of population to 25 % and a jungle of paperwork without functional outcomes.
The labeling of students make standards even harder - ESE students are not counted or counted differently - so if someone doesn't learn they are learning disabled and labeled - given more resources - and excluded from the testing of school outcomes.
There has been for decades weak support for standards - support in general but backing off when the tire hits the road and students actually FLUNK and are
We have to adjust to the new political realities - mass marketing of characters as products.Electoral choice is a weak choice for most people. People care more about household products such as toothpaste or breakfast cereal than their congress person.
There are a minority who project on politics their passions and loves and hates that have little political meaning - Some have been harmed by change - industrial or cultural - some have guilt, shame or projections - anti-foreign, protection, abortion, anti-establishment conspiracies - the Clinton's case ( reverse of the Nixon Case )
The base of politics today is emotion and sediment ( largely negative ) - as you see every day in the media - commercials are founded on the "hook" or how to tie the image of a product to a passion - sex, greed, shame, hope, hype - and the billions spent on commercials must work. Cars are creating status and exciting for drivers, products make you happy, sexy and smart, "you get inside it - and it gets inside you".
So we have maybe 10 % interested in issues - real choices based on interests - 20 % concerned with psycho-dynamics ( how does it feel ? What do I like or hate - true believer who projects their passions on the open screen ) - 30 % on transit and superficial reasons - talk shows, appearances and "character". makes 60 % who even pay attention and the rest don't care and don't vote at all.
If there was a depression or war or real civil unrest ( such as in the civil rights, Vietnam case ) maybe people would care and pay attention. We do not have ideological politics or do people carry little consistent theories in their heads - they have optioning that are generated by the moment and a moment latter could be different. That's the way it is - so why blame political campaigns for doing what they have to do to win ?
Our constitution was set up with the idea that Republican government depends on rational elites - better educated, better motivated, with an sense of civic virtue, civilly minded, public-spirited, community-minded - and a model of opinion where the leaders ideas are passed down. Real issues for real people can not be left to mass politics.
The problems such as Social Security is too complex - of course "they" just want more for less or nothing -
The real problem is the decline in the elite caused by economic change and the rise of the sunbelt and Wild West.
There is a weak media elite, weak academic leadership, weak economic leadership ( lost in a tangle of special interest )
The reason congress spends more time in ideological showmanship because the establishment is so fractured. In the old days there would be power brokers to make them behave. ( Bankers, editors, older politicians, party leaders - could control wild rhetoric and excessive patrician passions ) Both Clinton and Newt are outsiders without proper credentials and behavior did not conform to expected standards.
We have to adjust to the new realities - mass marketing of " characters " as products. It ends up as their ad agencies vs. our ad agencies, their commercials vs. our commercials - the selling of the presidency. Not beautiful, not wise, not true - but that's the way it is and why money matters- better ads and better coverage -
There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/
THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"
Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Center, Gore
http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/09/imf-europe A huge U.S. trade deficit could turn into a serious problem for the American economy if foreigners were to decide suddenly to dump dollar-denominated assets, which could push the U.S. currency down sharply and trigger steep declines in U.S. stock and bond markets http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/08/news-world-economy Referring to the various threats, the IMF said, "
The possibility that these imbalances may unwind in a disorderly fashion remains a risk to the global expansion." As for oil, the IMF said oil prices are about 20 percent higher than the IMF had assumed in its economic forecast, an increase of $5 a barrel. It estimated this should add $40 billion over a year's time to the oil import bills of industrial countries and cut their economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.
salestax.htm
The question of the commons in the sky:Airports would agree to a pattern or take off and landing which then would be sold to airlines - airspace would fit the capacity of getting in and out - and airline schedules would be limited to what the airports can handle. Ticket prices would reflect the supply and demand of time and location specific travel. Travelers would pay more for high demand times and locations. People going for pleasure could select a secondary airport and odd times, business would pay a premium for best sites at the best times.
The theme of public policy for the next generation is how services are delivered. Various patterns of public, private for and not for profit organization will bring competition, modern management practice and benefit / cost analysis into common services.
The air transport situation is a classic case of mixed up systems where the mixture has not worked. Deregulation of the airline carriers, city-state private airports, public air traffic controllers, regulation of the safety of air traffic and aircraft by the FAA and the various unions and interest groups all going after their own interest and can easily screw up the whole system.
The system analysis of the whole system seems to be weak.
They all depend on each other but seem to rather fight and blame each other then give up their any of special interests. Airports try to move more "tin" than they can handle because airlines want to schedule more flights to be competitive and not let others move it. Airlines are supported by public airports, weather, traffic controllers and taxpayers pay a lot of the construction cash as are road and barge transport. Airplanes benefit from defense contracts and research.
The idea is to change air traffic control into a non-profit modern organization such as been happening in Canada and Europe. A semi-private corporation could move faster on new technology.
Then airports should be able to compete for services and finance expansions and ground transport.
The national regulation of safety should be set by global systems analysis of capacity and safety issues. Each part of the system needs to fit together and adjust for bad weather and heavy load factors. We need a system designed for a billion passengers per year, then two billion or what ever we can manage.
Time to come clean, time to win:Remember Ross Parot and those charts on the federal deficits, an issue that both parties want to avoid. It was called the 600 pound guerilla no one want to notice. Now the issue is Social Security and Medicare is an 800 blue monkey no one want to handle except in unreal ways by pretending it will go away. Those now retiring were born 65 years ago in 1935 with aa birth cohort of a litle over two million. Many were not covered - farm and domestic labor - and come under SSI, and other Aid to the Elderly - about 500,000 claim Medicare and Social Security next year. In 1950 four million babies who live longer, augmented by immigration will make 2 million or more claims in 2015. ( In very round numbers ) We have a 10 trillion economy and 20 % in federal programs. In a little over a generation we can double the economy to 20 - 25 trillion, 20 % is 4 trillion budget.
The cost of Medicare in the 1960’s was 1/10 of what is now per person, 4 % of GDP in Health to about 11 % and going to 20 % without market pressures. If no real change is made in benefits ( likely to increase such as drugs ) and cost increase only slightly more than inflation, retirement benefits will absorb 75 % of a four trillion federal budget - equal to about 3.0 trillion, ( 10 % of a 25 trillion GDP ) and about 20 % of all personal income will be going to support the program for the retired one way or another. This means all other federal programs have the same dollar amount they now have - a real cut of more than 50 % - for parks, defense, agriculture, education, transportation, et al. Not realistic -
There is only one way out - let’s face it !A plan to subsidize savings so that in twenty years 65 % of all families have a private retirement plan with benefits equal to 80 % of their income is the only way out. Private insurance and free markets ( subsidized for the poor ) such as the Federal Employees ( supported by Bradley ) have is the only way that makes sense. Benefits must be means tested and run privately but subsidized for those in need.
The vast increase in private saving and investment would mean we can double the economy in a generation and afford to pay the bills while not ruining the economy. If Bush dropped his tax plan and took on Gore on the realities of Social Security / Medicare Gore would fumble and look dishonest - because he know the truth but is afraid of the truth as he did on meet the press. It could stash victory from the jaws of defeat.
The only way to get such a privatization plan is to triangulate democrats ( many support such a realistic idea ) and win the middle. On education Bush is more realistic and supports competition, these two great issues with a pay down of the debt ( small targeted tax cuts ) can still win. Bush would really have to bone up on a complex issue - have charts- and sell the program. http://www.aamc.org/advocacy/issues/commssns/nbcfm.htm
The plan, offered by Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) and Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) received 10 of the super-majority 11 votes (out of 17) needed for the commission to make recommendations to President Clinton and the Congress.
The commission has since disbanded without a report issued to the Congress and President Clinton. However, both Sen. Breaux and Rep. Thomas have indicated that they intend to use the commission document as a basis for introducing Medicare reform legislation. Under a premium-based support model, private plans would submit their plan and premiums for approval to a Medicare Board in order to compete with one another and with traditional Medicare fee-for-service.
The Breaux/ Thomas plan specifically states that submitted premiums from the government-run FFS or private plans would not include calculations of "all non-insurance functions and special payments now in Medicare." Medicare spending is projected to reach 4.4 % to 8 % percent of GDP by 2030. This means nearly quardupling the resources our nation would have to commit to cont
http://www.kaiserpermanente.org/ give a lot more for a lot less by having the doctors own the hospital, charge a flat per capita fee, and control cost.
They made more by doing less rather than the other way around. What is now called HMO is not HMO but an insurance scheme to give incentives to control costs.
Then they are under-funded a wild attempt to balance the budget and then attacked in not giving everyone everything they think they should have. A few billion dollars could make Kaiser Permanente national. We now have the worse of both worlds - a great compromise like in 1835 about Slavery - In 1935 when Social Security started, people lived to an average of 65, doctors could not do much against infection, flu, pneumonia, tuberculosis, etc. In 1965 when Medicare started it was different ( Miracle drugs ) and we were at the beginning of a technological revolution, Now they can keep anyone alive until the money runs out. When will we get real ? A simple system of supports for private insurance or HMO including publicly run or non-profit hospitals with everyone on salary - ( no incentives to do more than necessary
) To get more than the basics you pay more than the basic - if you don't have the money then you get what you are given and say "thank you".From the Concord coalition: Medicare faces a two-fold dilemma.
The program, as currently structured, is financially unsustainable. Medicare costs are projected to grow faster than the payroll taxes and premiums that are dedicated to support the program. Costs are also projected to grow faster than the overall economy, and faster than can be reasonably supported by the federal budget unless spending priorities change.At the same time, compared to the health insurance coverage available to most working age Americans, Medicare offers a Spartan, out-of-date insurance package that many argue is too stingy. Others contend Medicare is too generous compared to the protections generally available to younger people. Even though the program faces financial insolvency in the future, today there is pressure to add new benefits, such as coverage for people younger than 65, prescription drugs, treatment of mental illness, protection against catastrophic expenses, and long-term care for chronically ill people.In addition, traditional Medicare makes no attempt to coordinate or manage care; it reimburses the costs of any medical treatment that beneficiaries receive, regardless of whether the treatments are cost-effective or medically effective.
A landslide:
The central theme in 21st century politics is the way or how public services are delivered.
The scope of services is important but delivery systems is critical.
The decline of the EURO and slow growth in Europe is due in large measure to the drag on the economy of poorly run public services and excessive drain on saving and investment due to taxes, deficits, and entitlements. As the population ages the issue becomes even more severe as it reaches critical mass. In a generation 85 % of public spending and 20 % of all income will go to support the income and health of the retired if there is no change.
The only way, the third way, the new way is to introduce competition and free markets into the public sector. It is NOT the old conservative, less government more freedom ( mainly for the successful and rich by letting the old starve and die " are there not poor houses enough" said Mr. Scrooge ) but focused on the individual as the producer of all wealth and enterprise - without much concern for the environment, the common organic whole, social justice, racial harmony, liberation, the rights of property over equity and justice ( torts and restitution ) and the winner takes all philosophy - or the tax and spend ( tax the rich and spend on the less rich so there is little return on work and investment and a large dependent welfare class which bankrupts the society so we could end up like the Russians without the spirit of enterprise ) the anti-business beliefs of the old liberal - socialist ideologies without a strategy of growth and prosperity. Wealth can not be created by the state or state enterprises.
The issue is the right, rational, practical public sector - pro business - pro growth - limited and rational - not anti-government or pro-government but the necessary public services well delivered. In this way George W. is closer to Tony Blair than Gore, and Lieberman and the Progressive Policy Institute is closer to Republican than the stated program of the democrats. Of course, what they say and what they do has a very tenuous connection but... If the issues are joined - social security and Medicare, education partly privatized and privately run but publicly supported even if the democrats resist in public - they will change and find a compromise. It is new and somewhat dangerous grounds - entitlement and educational reform - and people are not willing to be pioneers. I remember a paper on intranets, and corporate information systems. Clearly the high cost and limited private networks with dedicated leased lines, was going to be replaced and/or supplemented by internet systems with wider access and linkages to clients, suppliers, et al.
The systems managers with knowledge in Novell and other limited systems were unhappy about learning and applying a new technology. New systems are a headache and breakdown and cause a systems manager all kinds of grief. One said " pioneers get arrows in their backs ". True - maybe you can wait until the bugs are all worked out. All the i’s dotted and the t’s crossed or maybe you will be left behind ? It is a very difficult question and the most important business issue facing everyfirm from the smallest to the largest. Big firms used to be able to wait - and then buy up what worked without going through the pain of trying many options and finding the solutions for themselves. No new system works painlessly - but no pain no gain !Public sector services become a blend of private and public - health, education, training and labor , welfare, postal and then military readiness, police, domestic security, fire, national parks and land, agricultural, international relations and NGO, non-profits, private global enterprises and government all and all will change - services will be networks of privatized and subsidized public services, vouchers, contracted agencies, leased facilities, capitalized public goods, each analysis for benefit /costs - rationalized - made above politics into practical modern delivery syst
Normal Healthy Reactions and negations: A new Third or Fourth Way
What a dull world it would be if we all agreed, if we were all alike
and what a uncreative and unproductive our society would be if there was
only one right way of thinking and doing. In the celebration of diversity
we should acknowledge the creative force of discussion, disagreement, and
conflict.
When dealing with conflict, different values, different life experience,
different cultures, different interests, different styles the first step
is to acknowledge the legitimacy of differences and a desire to look for
common humanity and common ground.
The theory of conflict resolution or
peace theories is a process of building confidence, listening and repeating
the concerns of the other side - " I hear what you saying, I understand
what you care about, want, need, and desire - I recognize your rights and
desires. " Now these are mine - where do we have room to come together
?
For example, Jerusalem - the Palestinians need some sovereignty over
East Jerusalem, and some rights over the holy places.
The Israelis need
the same thing. If both sides make dogmatic claims and say they can’t compromise
it seems an serious dilemma and could cause possible violence.
By raising the issue to a higher level joint solutions can be found
- different definitions of sovereignty, and creative common institutions
progress can be make. If both sides understand they have to live together
and give the others enough so they can have reconciliation then they can
create cross cultural institutions, linkages, contacts etc. Such a process
has worked in Northern Ireland, in the American South, South Africa, Central
America, so that the populations know and trust each other so they can
live and work together.
The dumb politics is to augment differences, to always attack any proposals
made by the opposition and exaggerated the problem. How about a new politics
- a third or fourth way - where one side responds positively to the suggestions
of the other side. " Well, that is an interesting idea - maybe we can work
something out " approach. In issues as complex as Social Security and Medicare
serious negations and compromise are required and should be recognized
rather than misleading numbers, programs and slogans by both sides.
We had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong,
Do voters and believers have defects because they refuse to believe
and act as they should ? Or do organizations have a hubris of great claims
on people’s loyalty, credibility, or subservience.
Is public policy theology ? Is theology dogma ? If it is an article
of faith that tax cuts are good even if it creates deficits, slows growth,
destroys wealth and progress ( GOP ) then that limits options;
OR you should tax the rich to benefit the poor ( fight for you against
them ) therefore discourage enterprise, wealth creation, and the ability
to fund public programs.
Instead of study and analysis of the real world - others experience,
expert studies;
But instead we had a meeting and decided we are right and you are wrong
:
The bluntly worded declaration by the Vatican office that oversees Catholic
doctrine said that followers of non-Christian faiths have "gravely deficient"
chances for salvation and that other Christian churches have "defects,"
partly because they do not recognize the authority of the pope.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/updates/lat_vatican000906.htm
http://msnbc.com/news/455300.asp#BODY
There is growing concern that the Bush Campaign is in deep do-do.
There
is movement to replace critical people and strategy. ." And given the gravity
of the situation and the relatively short amount of time until November,
Bush needs to get on the offensive soon. Updated governor vulnerability
ratings.
http://www.voter.com/home/news/0,3402,2--,00.html
Do we hate ideology ?
The best description of American Democracy is that done a more than
a century and half ago by Alexis de Tocqueville. American are described
as being practical, materialist, pragmatic, with a passion for slogans
and the hoopla of political activity.
The inevitable democratic trend was
due to the growth of the propertied middle classes, ( economic determinism
) new technology in communications, transportation and education ( technological
determinism ), and maybe most important the Protestant Christian theology
of the individual ( historical and psychological determinism ).
The people want to believe that they think for themselves as individuals
but are very easily influenced by their social group and the desire to
fit in and be popular. Tocqueville felt there was a dumping down in democracy
and a decline in real individualism and intellectual independence. Civic
virtue, the organized national goals, greater idealist passions, the need
for a collective organic society is wrapped in generalizations and slogans
of a obsessive, bias, and blind local and national patriotism. American
were described as people in gray suits, social conformist who feared being
different from the pack.
Since the New Deal, Old Democrats taxed Republicans to provide benefits
to democrats thereby buy their votes.
Their ideology was a form of social
democracy promoting equality and social justice. Old Republican were social,
economic and political conservatives that resisted big government and believed
in the ideology of personal liberty.
The American economy produced a much bigger middle class. Now the democrats
began to tax democrats to benefit other democrats. Republicans began to
get working class and southern votes based on tax, welfare, defense and
social - racial issues. New Democrats reacted to the charge they were the
"tax and spend" party, soft on crime, soft on communist and defense, soft
on welfare and morals, and the new Leadership became centralist as fiscal
conservatives with support for the war industries, the war on drugs, tough
on crime, the death penalty, welfare reform, balanced budgets, and other
republican issues.
The Old "new democrats" want to tax republicans to benefit
their constitutions to reinforce their base to gain some of the populist
appeal to those who feel they have not gotten enough from the growing economy.
New Republicans are integrationist, argue for social justice through
educational opportunity, support basic social security and Medicare, and
their higher purposes are to be inclusive, practical, compromise, and non-ideological
in reaction to the charge that they were mean, selfish, racist, sexist,
ideological anti-government extremist and religious fundamentalist.
The cycle has been first the New Deal - tax the republicans to benefit
the working class urban democrats. This kept the party in power for more
than half a century. Social security, Medicare are the democratic poster
child.
Then the " Southern Strategy" with Nixon and Reagan broke the Democratic
monopoly with social, racial, ideological, anti-Communist, right to life
combination. Reagan and Gingrish used the slogans of freedom, individual
liberty, the dangers of big government, to package a right wing ideological
movement with gun control the poster child of individualism.
The support
for anti-government slogans declined with prosperity and a centralist Clinton
administration.
Now Gore needed to mobilize the old democrats, tax the rich to benefit
the working class, us vs. them - plus the pragmatic moderate fiscal policy
that help produce prosperity. He does not intend to spend a lot of money.
Bush is a southern strategy person who needs to attract more moderate working
class and suburban voters.
The message of moderate republican governors
about coalition building and practical policy doesn’t seem to be getting
through.
Politesse: Idiots ?
Why when an issue become political does it become so stupid ? It doesn’t
in Europe ( as much ) as it does here. As in war the first casualty is
reason and truth.
The drug war - has not reduced drugs or even raised prices - but since
it doesn’t work do more of the same and get into a civil war in Columbia
?
The only effect can be to move production and distribution. Put a million
citizens into jail while treatment programs are under funded and full -
be sure to target young black males so they will have no useful future
in society.
The issue of Cuba and Castro - since sanctions don’t work keep them
for ever ? Because of the Cuban Vote in Florida and New Jersey let the
extreme control national policy ? Make no move to promote civil society
and racial justice and democracy but support white anti-democratic refugee
groups.
School reform - since little or no progress has been made in the inequality
or the quality of education since 1964 and Title I and other reform programs
- keep doing the same - and follow the advice of teachers unions, school
boards, and false Schools of Education ( an oxymoron ) experts who have
shown they can not improve schools ?
Since we can’t agree on abortion lets keep fighting and insulting each
other ?
The constitution calls for impeachment of elected officials for high
crimes as a rare or last resort so let’s have a huge case conducted by
lawyers on the judiciary committee from the house - when they should know
no crime was committed ( a crime is an act that can be prosecuted under
law - not just allegations and calling people names like cheater or liar
) and no prosecution is possible in this case ?
Since there will be a great deal fewer payers and a lot more receivers
of social security and Medicare let’s not discuss raising taxes or reducing
benefits and/or making them means tested - let’s pretend that we have a
quick cheap fix, no pain and all gain ?
Should add missile defense, the surplus - the social security "trust"
fund, ( when you are in debt there is no surplus )
The trillion of dollars
the government owes itself does not pay itself interest - the account is
not in surplus unless you count unpaid accounts -
Assembly, have provided a unique opportunity for us all to reflect on
our common destiny, by convening what will surely be the largest gathering
of political leaders the world has ever seen.
V. Sustaining our future
Technological waves for the next 20 years
We now face an urgent need to secure the freedom of future generations
to sustain their lives on this planet – and we are failing to do it. We
have been plundering our children’s heritage to pay for unsustainable practices.
Changing this is a challenge for rich and poor countries alike
These institutions must reflect the realities of the time, including
the distribution of power. And they must serve as an arena for states to
co-operate with non-state actors, including global companies. In many cases
they need to be complemented by less formal policy networks, which can
respond more quickly to the changing global agenda.
The gross disparities of wealth in today’s world, the miserable conditions
in which well over a billion people live, the prevalence of endemic conflict
in some regions, and the rapid degradation of the natural environment:
all these combine to make the present model of development unsustainable,
unless remedial measures are taken by common agreement.
http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/summ.htm
Globalization:
The real issues of our times ( again ) is not being talked about or
does the political process clarify the choices about the future. We desperately
need to better understand who we are and where we are going.
The mundane
and almost evil issues of greed, benefits, character narrowly defined,
are out of any context as to the purposes, goals, missions, or tasks of
a modern civilized society and changing national global realities.
Technological waves for the next 20 years
There are four steps to modern progressive global societies.
Self-government - Personal responsibilities and initiative - the idea
of self government both as a personal and political system and with economic
open markets. Competition produces both prosperity and inequality, the
rich get richer but the poor need not get poorer if the second condition
is enlivened - limits on personal or family greed - electoral reform is
a minor reflection of a much greater issue of freedom, democracy when power
and money is widely unequal.
Responsibility, because of inequality and the danger of corruption by
concentrations of power of money and military, there is a clear need for
social dependability of individual and corporations who have developed
civic duties and responsibilities beyond themselves - including supporting
the rule of law and public goods purchased through government to create
and maintain a civilized public culture.
The moral or family issues is
a thin reflection of the great issues of duty and responsibility. Social
consciousness comes from the third condition -
Trust - building confidence over time and space between groups, races,
societies, companies requires an open and honest methods of resolving disputes.
Trust is required to do business beyond a few friends and family and does
not come easily.
The religion, race and class divides are a weak reflection
of the great issues of faith and trust in neighborhoods, communities, cities,
states, nations, and beyond our borders.
The third condition sums it all
up -
Humanism - Ecology - Environment - Expanding intellectual, spiritual,
and technical capacities of the individuals in a global society including
developing institution as linkages between peoples, companies, non-profits,
foundations ( NGO s ) governments, associations, panels, conferences, professional
groups, media companies, educational institutions, the United Nations,
IMF, World Bank, Churches, women’s groups, environmental groups, and the
other of thousands of connections. GreenPeace, Doctors without Borders,
need to be matched by alliances concerned about the great majority of people
who suffer, mainly women and children.
A Global Agenda:
Expand the institutions of democracy - on a local basis by public finance
and regulation of elections, and global support for the civic culture -
the media, education, small business, internet access, rather than military
intervention which should only be the last resort.
Expand international law on corruption, massive civic crime, human rights
abuse, and on a local basis getting over the learning gap - black 17 year
olds performing as white 13 year olds - by what even means necessary -
smaller, better, more competitive schools.
Restoring Faith in institutions, public and private by serious reforms
-
The model is integration of labor, management, and the public as official
members of community.
The various European models of joint committees and
structures should be useful. This is what was called industrial democracy.
Re thinking welfare and social programs with a focus on women and children
using new public private non-profit models.
Breakdown anywhere causes problems everywhere ? Progress, reason, wealth
and investment anywhere impacts everywhere ! We need islands of hope in
a sea of troubles. One hope is the Russians are smart and many technically
trained.
There is a global shortage of technical people so there should
be something there.
The issue is not the personal fault of the people or bad habits from
socialism - but the old system is not gone but dysfunctional and has not
been replaced by a new functional one.
The pure Western Models never fitted
Russia - either Marxism or capitalist - as so many writers of the late
19th Century ( Leo Tolstoy et al ) described so beautifully.
The Russia
spirit requires collective visions, the soul needs great causes, they are
not a island of traders and merchants as France thought of England - but
dreamers and poets, saints and thieves. .
The liberation of Russia has always come from the soil, the language,
and the Orthodox Church - peasants and their MIRs.
The collective village
needs to move into the industrial age.
The fact there was no revolution,
no taking down, cleaning out, removal of the old and no image in the construction
of the new but the old system just collapsed like the Roman Empire from
it's own weight left nothing in place that works very well. Before you
destroy a system you should have a new one in mind but that's not what
happened.
I think a romantic, spiritual and mystic movement will sweep over the
country - prophets and wizards - witches and goblins are on the lose, Leo
in his while robes among the people, if not a Rasputin with a new image
of "mother Russia" that will mobilize energy and pride. We can hope it
is not too undemocratic and authoritarian but will be both because it will
be Russian not American or Western European, or Chinese - and we can hope
it will make things go better for all of us - This is the mother of all
social disasters or the passage for a great people to find their proper
place and role in the world. We need to pay attention and not be stupid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_901000/901963.stm
Pot-holed roads - or roads that end nowhere - twisted streetlamps, dilapidated
trams, wooden shacks on the outside of towns... It's all testament to a
country whose physical fabric is falling apart.
"
There has been very little capital investment in Russia for a decade.
The money received by Russia from abroad has been largely siphoned off
( stolen ) into the shadow economy, while low tax collection rates in Russia
mean few resources can be raised internally for investment.
Education and healthcare have suffered severe hardships. "
Experience suggests that social unrest - gangs - drugs crime war lords
- sort of a Somalia - West Africa - Congo - with Atomic bombs - jets -
tanks -
Since there is no way of fixing "the problem" at a global scale - simple,
small, practical islands of rational development need to develop in St.
Petersburg - out East ( Far East ) by free trade zones - development districts
outside the hopeless legal and administrative tangles.
More power in a Palm Pilot than on the Apollo 10:
The accelerating rate of change forecast more change in the next century
than in the last 10,000 years.
The increases in the rate of change between
paradigms began at about 5000 years as ideas spread slowly - domestic animals,
agriculture, metallurgy, then cities, bureaucracy and empires - then 500
years - printing, navigation, mathematics, deep mining up to the 18th century.
Then 100 years with potatoes, steam and steel, electric and chemical, communications
and computers. Now in 25 years ideas are activated that used to take a
century, then 12.5 years will have a century of 20th century progress,
then 6.25 years what used to take a century and so forth.
The acceleration
of the rate of change has been going on for a long time - it just gets
faster and faster.
Therefore if Nano computer would have taken 50 years in the past it
can be done in 12.5 years.
The speed of application of stem cells to build
body parts, cloned cells used as normal therapies, use of immunization
in treatments of ongoing virus infections and cancers, genetic engineered
plants and animals as a normal accepted process, all being implemented
at great speed. Even in a slow bulky industries such as cars - the fuel
cell will move along more quickly than such technologies would have in
the past. This really effects markets, marketing, and business planning
in very fundamental ways.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/business/index.shtml
go to weekly then global business at the bottom of page
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computer Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Paperback - January 2000)
The Age of Spiritual Machines : When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil (Hardcover - January 1999)
Darwin Among the Machines :
The Evolution of Global Intelligence (Helix
Books) by George B. Dyson (Paperback - October 1998)
http://www8.bcity.com/book_bargains/spiritual_machines.htm
There are only three or four issues that have dominated Western then
Global Politics for the last few centuries.
The desire for liberty ( freedom
from excessive state control ) led to the need for self government. Since
we don’t want kings, priest and tribal chiefs to tell us what to do and
how to think and behave we have to do more thinking on our own and make
more complex value judgments. This is the first modern political issue
- now taking the form of the corruption by money of politics, the talk
about big corporations, media and money having excessive control over our
lives.
The second issue is due to the fact that God so loved the poor he made
a lot of them. Equity is an ancient issue that arose in the first popular
government in Greece and repeats itself in many forms.
The poor majorities
under the leadership of a demigod or tyrant will pander to the mob to redistribute
the wealth, forgive debts ( or inflate the currency to make debts payable
in cheap money ) and pander to the passions, the desire for bread and circuses,
and foster other popular superstitions. Now this is called class warfare
or the needs of the needy vs. the greed of the greedy. Benefits paid for
by the rich for the benefit of the poor, public welfare bribes are offered
to buy votes.
Therefore, the third issue is how to protect and expand freedom from
the dangers of Democratic systems - positive freedom is the ability to
make WISE choices unlike a passive liberty which is the negative freedom
from coercion and the right to be wrong.
There is no positive freedom in
ignorance, superstition, prejudice, and in short in being stupid.
Therefore
a civic state depends on education and a civic culture. Otherwise it become
popular tyranny either of the right or left. This issue now takes the form
of education and mobility. If we can really teach poor children to gain
skills we can also teach them to behave and act like other middle class
responsible people.
The last issue is the global vs. national views - the role of humanity
and transcendental values over day to day benefits and who gets what, when
and how. Now this issue comes out as having goals greater than ourselves,
the uses of riches, the nature of the environment, social responsibility,
family values, and the proper respect for the opinions of mankind and the
moral standards of a community of nations.
Real Reform.com
American Association for Constitutional Reform
The issue of structural reform does not appear as an issue any where
I can find - even in third parties. As I see the issue is the 18th century
electoral structure can not cope with a system of mass marketing and the
money required to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to
change the structure of the elections - a change from independent single
member districts (
The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution
) to a system with clear party responsibility.
The parties need to be clearly a national franchise - with duties and
responsibilities OVER their candidates and office holders. Being a Republican
or Democrat has to mean something. If you run on a ticket there should
be some implied contract. Many candidates do not even mention their party
at all.
The national parties are now a committee of the states - equal representative
by states so 15 % of the population has a majority.
There are many alternatives
to achieve a responsible party system - some commitment to the platform
and some disciple by members elected as members of a party.
Then there
could be some control over money and have shorter and cleaner campaigns
as in the rest of the civilized world.
The congress has become 535 independent small business people without
much discipline or policy. All this talk about issues is hollow because
the talk does not relate to what happens. In England for example the parties
have a "manifesto" or platform that will predict how they will govern.
We don't. So it's mostly verbiage and marketing. Promises her anything
but what will be done after she is seduced ? People know that elections
don't connect to policy - that policy is made by the iron triangle - Interest
groups - the committees that fund for congress for reelection - and the
agencies the congress funds and regulate. If you follow the money trail
it goes to congress and then congress funds programs and give benefits
- regulation, tax and subsidies - to those who fund their election.
The single ballot ( President and congress on the same check mark )
so there is some connection between executive and congressional authority
is one suggestion. An amendment to make clear the federal power to regulate
federal elections or just a statue taking control over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is via a convention called by
the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real Reform: Restore confidence and pride in the Institutions of democracy:
Article II - electors and electoral college - is a time bomb - and needs
to be replaced by new simple language - and a national orderly rational
process of federal elections. Federal elections need to be federal - not
a scramble of state rules, antique dysfunctional regulations and court
decisions along with the changing results of infighting within fractional
political parties.
The right to control federal elections by federal law
should not be in doubt - this does now effect the bill of rights - but
only the structure of he process of running elections.
In the electronic age we don’t need a horse and buggy system - it can
be much fairer, faster, representative, and honest. Elections are the core
of democracy - they can never be perfect but a dysfunctional system undermines
the foundations of freedom and representative government.
Federal Elections in the Constitution:
In order to assure democracy and the faith of the people in their elected
representatives; federal elections shall be conducted in a brief, honest,
open, and equal manner that assure impartiality to both incumbents and
their opposition and limit the undue influence of money. Congress shall
prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by the majority
votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional districts for
the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate, and of
the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The certification of results, the qualifications of voters and candidates,
the times and dates of primaries and elections, the certification of recognized
Political parties and their candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed
by publicly regulated expenditures shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom of political speech, competition, and the free expression of
the will of the people in the selection of their Government. Where no candidate
has a majority a run off shall be quickly conducted.
Upon enactment, This amendment become the supreme law of the land, not
withstanding any prior constitutional or other legal decisions and past
circumstances.
( replaces: Article I section 2 on the House section 3 and Amendment
17 on the Senate, Article II and Amendment 12 on the President and Vice-president
)
Federal Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress shall prescribe the terms and conditions for citizen initiative,
or congressional referendum to be placed on the ballots of federal elections,
as proposals for amendments under Article V, sent to the states, or laws
to be enacted or as advisory to the states, the people and to congress.
This leaves to congress to control federal elections. I would like an
election on the second Tuesday in November with a run off if necessary
in the middle of November - with campaigns to start on labor day including
the nomination process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries
could be done nationally in early September with a run off in the last
week of September with conventions ( not really necessary ) during October
(Enough is enough ) Federal campaigns would be publicly financed and limited
in their expenditures.
An even longer view:
Multicrawl
use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage
Excite NewsSearch
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
Web
Hosting
>
Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -
ppppflaump@cfl.rr.com - http://www.wiredbrain.net/
post.htm
on the VAT ( Value added tax ) or national sales tax
initiative.htm
FastCounter
by LinkExchange